Bowl math

[RSTuthill]

To be in a matchup with Pitt, UConn would have to beat Army. A challenge, but doable.

And if that happened UConn would be New England's team at Fenway. Which would give every BYer a certain sublime satisfaction no matter the final score.

 

[HuskyAlum012]

I ran the numbers and show them all below. Double checked my math against the various sites that are all listing 63 bowl eligible teams, including UConn. Here is what I am getting:

- There are 65 teams with at least 6 wins
- James Madison is ineligible
- Marshall has 6 wins, but two are against FCS opponents (you can only count one for bowl eligibility
- For the sake of argument we won't include UConn

- That leaves 62 teams with at least 6 wins and a spot locked up
- There are 82 bowl spots, so there are 20 spots remaining

Remaining Teams:

There are 21 five win teams, 18 four win teams, and 1 three win team (Army who has 3 left to play*).

That makes 39 teams other than UConn with at least 4 wins and two games left to play for those 20 spots.

There are four matchups of teams with at least 5 wins before the end of the year. That would guarantee at least 4 more spots gone.

This would make 16 spots left over for 35 other teams

We need 19 teams to fail.

Five Win Teams: Marshall, BYU, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Southern Miss, Rice, Middle TN, UAB, Memphis, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Miami, App State, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Utah State, Arkansas, Ball State

Four Win Teams: New Mexico State, Kent State, West Virginia, Miami (OH), Vanderbilt, LA Monroe, Georgia Tech, Georgia State, UTEP, Rutgers, Missouri, Auburn, Central Michigan, Florida International, UNLV, Iowa State, Arizona, Army

*Note on Army - including them but two of their wins are against FCS so they may already by ineligible

With bowling green getting to 6 wins, believe the count is now 63 teams eligible. 19 spots remain.

 

[wheelerdog]

What a wild ending to the Bowling Green game.

 

[businesslawyer]

With bowling green getting to 6 wins, believe the count is now 63 teams eligible. 19 spots remain.

If anyone saw the end of last night’s game, with both teams having something to play for in the snow, that wa an unbelievable last two minutes.

 

[HuskyAlum012]

If anyone saw the end of last night’s game, with both teams having something to play for in the snow, that wa an unbelievable last two minutes.

Not the right ending for us though! We needed Toledo. Brutal loss

 

[Ajs120102]

Not the right ending for us though! We needed Toledo. Brutal loss

But Ball State lost so not a terrible night

 

[RSTuthill]

Things get so much simpler with a win on Saturday. UConn will be focused on the things it can control. You can be sure of that. The other stuff? Meaningless at this point.

 

[businesslawyer]

Things get so much simpler with a win on Saturday. UConn will be focused on the things it can control. You can be sure of that. The other stuff? Meaningless at this point.

This. I can’t worry about what 30 other teams are doing until 3:30 on Saturday. We just need to take care of business in a winnable game. If we win, no need to worry about it.

 

[Marbles90]

But Ball State lost so not a terrible night

Yes and with their loss and Miami (OH) at 4-6 and playing tonight, we can guarantee at least one of them is out since they play each other next week. If Miami loses tonight and then beats Ball State next week, both are out...

Meanwhile, Kent State and Central Michigan could also get eliminated tonight...

 

[huskymedic]

Good painless overview of the odds: It appears likely that UConn will get a bowl invite

 

[HuskyAlum012]

This. I can’t worry about what 30 other teams are doing until 3:30 on Saturday. We just need to take care of business in a winnable game. If we win, no need to worry about it.

What is the difference for us between winning 6 and 7 games? I am pretty sure none. The only teams our win total matters against are Liberty, Umass, New Mexico. Umass cant make a bowl, Liberty already will have a better record for us (therefore will get picked before us in pecking order) and New Mexico has 2 tough games @ Mizzou and @ Liberty to finish off the season (and need to win both to tie us in wins). Other than that, any team in a conference that gets to 6 wins (even we get to 7) has priority in the bowl pecking order. So I dont think us getting to 7 wins gets us better odds at going bowling. Regardless of that... BEAT ARMY!

 

[Husky25]

What is the difference for us between winning 6 and 7 games? I am pretty sure none. The only teams our win total matters against are Liberty, Umass, New Mexico. Umass cant make a bowl, Liberty already will have a better record for us (therefore will get picked before us in pecking order) and New Mexico has 2 tough games @ Mizzou and @ Liberty to finish off the season (and need to win both to tie us in wins). Other than that, any team in a conference that gets to 6 wins (even we get to 7) has priority in the bowl pecking order. So I dont think us getting to 7 wins gets us better odds at going bowling. Regardless of that... BEAT ARMY!

On paper, it doesn't means a whole heck of a lot. After listening to the CT Scoreboard pod with Brett McMurphy, it appears to matter more behind closed doors and on the phone. 6 wins garners a bowl bid in all probability. 7 wins makes a program more attractive in terms of horse trading.

 

[HuskyAlum012]

Good painless overview of the odds: It appears likely that UConn will get a bowl invite

I found this blurb very interesting:

"At UConn, the athletic department made the decision to take a more favorable contract with CBS Sports Network, reportedly, rather than ESPN/ESPN+, which may have come with bowl ties."

 

[businesslawyer]

What is the difference for us between winning 6 and 7 games? I am pretty sure none. The only teams our win total matters against are Liberty, Umass, New Mexico. Umass cant make a bowl, Liberty already will have a better record for us (therefore will get picked before us in pecking order) and New Mexico has 2 tough games @ Mizzou and @ Liberty to finish off the season (and need to win both to tie us in wins). Other than that, any team in a conference that gets to 6 wins (even we get to 7) has priority in the bowl pecking order. So I dont think us getting to 7 wins gets us better odds at going bowling. Regardless of that... BEAT ARMY!

As I understand it, no bowl can take a 6-6 team for which it is not contractually obligated to take if a 7-5 team is available. Said another way, for slots that are not tied to a particular conference to begin with, or where the conference can't fill it's obligation to supply a team, the bowl can't take a 6-6 team from another conference and leave a 7-5 team at home.

I am fairly certain that's right, but I'd be lying if I told you that college football sportswriting was absolutely unequivocal on this.

 

[businesslawyer]

I found this blurb very interesting:

"At UConn, the athletic department made the decision to take a more favorable contract with CBS Sports Network, reportedly, rather than ESPN/ESPN+, which may have come with bowl ties."

It's not that interesting. He's talking about what are in effect "fake" tie ins -- press releases saying there is a deal, but the deal doesn't bind any bowl to actually take the school. This is what UMass has. It has a nice press release one day that doesn't guaranty it anything.

 

[huskymedic]

I found this blurb very interesting:

"At UConn, the athletic department made the decision to take a more favorable contract with CBS Sports Network, reportedly, rather than ESPN/ESPN+, which may have come with bowl ties."

It's not that interesting. He's talking about what are in effect "fake" tie ins -- press releases saying there is a deal, but the deal doesn't bind any bowl to actually take the school. This is what UMass has. It has a nice press release one day that doesn't guaranty it anything.

UMass announcement from this past August

 

[HuskyAlum012]

It's not that interesting. He's talking about what are in effect "fake" tie ins -- press releases saying there is a deal, but the deal doesn't bind any bowl to actually take the school. This is what UMass has. It has a nice press release one day that doesn't guaranty it anything.

It's interesting because we gave the middle finger to the conglomerate that runs 90% of the bowls. As we rightfully should have.

 

[Kolumbo]

Good painless overview of the odds: It appears likely that UConn will get a bowl invite

He provides a clear explanation of UCONN's situation and bowl tie-ins. I need people to explain it to me like I'm a 2 year-old.

Projections​

CBS Sports — Lending Tree Bowl vs. Southern Miss (Sun Belt) — Dec. 17

Sports Illustrated — Armed Forces Bowl vs. ECU — Dec. 22

The Athletic — Gasparilla Bowl vs. NC State — Dec. 23

Athlon Sports and Bleacher Report currently project UConn to miss the cut.

 

[businesslawyer]

It's interesting because we gave the middle finger to the conglomerate that runs 90% of the bowls. As we rightfully should have.

Really? You think you're giving the middle finger to a potential business partner when you take a better offer from someone else? Or you have some reason to think ESPN made a better offer but we took a worse one out of spite?

 

[Husky25]

It's interesting because we gave the middle finger to the conglomerate that runs 90% of the bowls. As we rightfully should have.

McMurphy is projecting one or two 5-7 teams getting a bid. Programs with >=.500 records have priority. ESPN may not bend over backwards to facilitate a more favorable location, opponent, or payout, but all else being equal, UConn should get an invite.

 

[RSTuthill]

Whether it is horse trading behind closed doors or the rules of bowl selection, 7-5 is always preferable to 6-6. This chatter is what it is -- just chatter. The Team, I am sure, has it's collective head down and is focusing. Fun for us fans to speculate. But it's just background noise.

Win baby win!!

 

[ThabeetDown]

It's interesting because we gave the middle finger to the conglomerate that runs 90% of the bowls. As we rightfully should have.

While I agree ESPN hates us to a degree, we're very marketable to the average CFB fan because of our story, so we will be in a bowl. We bring eyeballs to ESPN which brings dollars to ESPN, which is all they care about.

 

[PNolanFan]

While I agree ESPN hates us to a degree, we're very marketable to the average CFB fan because of our story, so we will be in a bowl. We bring eyeballs to ESPN which brings dollars to ESPN, which is all they care about.

I was making this argument the other night and my friend was saying we arent marketable compared to like unc or south carolina and i think not everyone realized we arent comparing ourselves to them when we say we are marketable. However when compared to some random sun belt school or really like 90% of group of 5 schools we definitely are more interesting and have larger followings than most of them

 

[businesslawyer]

While I agree ESPN hates us to a degree, we're very marketable to the average CFB fan because of our story, so we will be in a bowl. We bring eyeballs to ESPN which brings dollars to ESPN, which is all they care about.

When people say ESPN hates us, what they mean is that ESPN doesn't do anything for us. The latter is true. ESPN loves to make money, and hates not making money. As a team playing hoops on Fox and football on CBSSN, they certainly have no need to promote us in any way compared to a school whose games they own. Having said that, they're not going to pass up on the economically correct decision for us just to hurt us. And barring the bowl being within a 100 mile radius of a potential invitee, we will be preferred to a 6-6 CUSA, Sunbelt or MAC team because we have more brand and because all the networks have been giving Mora major airtime as a national story.

 

[Palatine]

Bowl math, 7-5 is better than 6-6. Beat Army.