Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion

[HuskyHawk]

How many games do you need for football? You need 8. Give me the candidates.

This is going to be a very weak league after they lose their good football schools.

Big12 schools aren't going to run to play Syracuse and Wake Forest.

They'll scrape the barrel. The world you imagine, of the ACC taking B12 members, it doesn't exist.

You're delusional about some key realities here. In term of $ and stability, the P5 are ranked this way.
1A B1G - 1B SEC
3 ACC
4 Big 12
5 Pac

The ACC GOR is solid and so is the ND deal. So 13 years of stability. The new B12 deal is 5 years b/c no network would commit longer than that. The Pac has no deal at all. They struck out on landing a deal with any linear TV carrier. So while FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA may be appealing, they aren't available in the time period where things need to happen. The Pac teams are right now and the B12 teams will be soon. So that's where the B1G or SEC will look, if they do. I'm not convinced that they want or need to get bigger. Report was the B1G Presidents shot down a 24 team league that functioned like two 12 team leagues with a championship game.

There are a few ways this can go. The B12 could add Pac schools now (UA, ASU, UC and Utah). If they don't, then in 3-4 years the best B12 teams could merge with the SEC and create a league that legit competes with the B1G and SEC. KU, OK State, Baylor, Houston and Cinci join ACC. The Big 12 scraps combine with the Pac scraps.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

I'm not so sure the ACC GOR is solid. As Business Lawyer pointed out it has not faced any lawsuits yet. One has to wait to see what happens if one of the members challenges it in court. ND also may be able to find a way to wiggle out of its agreement. FSU and Clemson are among the likely ACC members that could find a way to bolt from the conference.

 

[jostar1]

If they don't, then in 3-4 years the best B12 teams could merge with the SEC and create a league that legit competes with the B1G and SEC.

Did you mean to say "the best B12 teams could merge with the ACC"?

 

[upstater]

You're delusional about some key realities here. In term of $ and stability, the P5 are ranked this way.
1A B1G - 1B SEC
3 ACC
4 Big 12
5 Pac

The ACC GOR is solid and so is the ND deal. So 13 years of stability. The new B12 deal is 5 years b/c no network would commit longer than that. The Pac has no deal at all. They struck out on landing a deal with any linear TV carrier. So while FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA may be appealing, they aren't available in the time period where things need to happen. The Pac teams are right now and the B12 teams will be soon. So that's where the B1G or SEC will look, if they do. I'm not convinced that they want or need to get bigger. Report was the B1G Presidents shot down a 24 team league that functioned like two 12 team leagues with a championship game.

There are a few ways this can go. The B12 could add Pac schools now (UA, ASU, UC and Utah). If they don't, then in 3-4 years the best B12 teams could merge with the SEC and create a league that legit competes with the B1G and SEC. KU, OK State, Baylor, Houston and Cinci join ACC. The Big 12 scraps combine with the Pac scraps.

You're giving me a ranking of conferences as they are now.

The whole discussion is about the ACC falling apart.

Good luck with that GOR and 13 years. It's not going to hold

 

[upstater]

Lol, it’s not a “basic question” it is a five variable unanswerable question.

It's basic. If the ACC falls apart, what teams are candidates for admission. UConn and USF. Memphis? S. Miss? E. Carolina?

Go ahead.

 

[NH Husky]

The weaker conference is always the one that gets raided. The Pac-12 was the stronger conference and could have had 4 Big 12 schools. They voted against it. Then UCLA/USC left and now the Big 12 is the stronger conference and will likely steal a couple from the Pac. If the ACC loses their most important members, those Big 12 schools aren't going to join the ACC. I think the ideal short term scenario for UConn is the Big 12 adding 3 west members and needing a 4th member to balance it out. Maybe the team that won the most recent national title in hoops??

I think this scenario makes a lot of sense.
Big 12 grabs Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, and UCONN. BYU already gives them Utah.
Down the road when the ACC breaks up pick four more to get to 20. Maybe Pitt (WV rival), Louisville (Cin rival), Syracuse (UCONN rival), and someone for UCF (Miami?).
Hands down best hoops conference and lots of football potential.

 

[CL82]

It's basic. If the ACC falls apart, what teams are candidates for admission. UConn and USF. Memphis? S. Miss? E. Carolina?

Go ahead.

Lol, what’s the status of each of these programs in your hypothetical? What is the status of other programs? What is the status of other conferences? What is the likely prognosis that a decimated ACC will survive? What media partners are associated with the ACC at that time? What areas do those media partners want to emphasize? What are the stability of the other conferences? What is the relative media deals of the other conferences? What is the perspective media deal for the decimated ACC? Etc…

Are you just trolling on this or do you actually not see all the variables?

 

[HuskyHawk]

You're giving me a ranking of conferences as they are now.

The whole discussion is about the ACC falling apart.

Good luck with that GOR and 13 years. It's not going to hold

It is absolutely going to hold.

 

[CL82]

It is absolutely going to hold.

Probably, at least until say 2034 at the earliest. At that point whatever the equivalent money damages are for breaching the GOR might be affordable for moves to one of the P2.

 

[hoopsfan22]

It is absolutely going to hold.

Have you seen the contract?

 

[upstater]

Lol, what’s the status of each of these programs in your hypothetical? What is the status of other programs? What is the status of other conferences? What is the likely prognosis that a decimated ACC will survive? What media partners are associated with the ACC at that time? What areas do those media partners want to emphasize? What are the stability of the other conferences? What is the relative media deals of the other conferences? What is the perspective media deal for the decimated ACC? Etc…

Are you just trolling on this or do you actually not see all the variables?

I already answered those questions in the 1st post I made.

I gave you which schools would go to which conferences. That's already been detailed.

The rest of the schools would be left behind in the ACC. At that point, they'd have one of 3 options. Add football schools (the worst choice outside of UConn and USF). Try to join the B12 (not sure why the B12 would take them, but maybe a couple). Merge with the BE. of the 3 choices, the BE one is the one that makes the most sense.

 

[CL82]

I already answered those questions in the 1st post I made.

I gave you which schools would go to which conferences. That's already been detailed.

The rest of the schools would be left behind in the ACC. At that point, they'd have one of 3 options. Add football schools (the worst choice outside of UConn and USF). Try to join the B12 (not sure why the B12 would take them, but maybe a couple). Merge with the BE. of the 3 choices, the BE one is the one that makes the most sense.

Lol, I’m out. Agree to disagree on it.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Is there any way if Notre Dame pulled its Olympic sports that a legal loophole would be created to nullify the ACC GOR? Or, is it such an unknown that we'd all be guessing? (Yes, I realize that the document has been on total lockdown since the day it was created/signed). Everyone seems to think that it is so simple (maybe 4 pages?) that it will be difficult to break legally. What are the basic arguments to get out of something so simple? Insanity, coercion, drunkenness when signing, etc. What else could break it? Any lawyers want to weigh in?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Probably, at least until say 2034 at the earliest. At that point whatever the equivalent money damages are for breaching the GOR might be affordable for moves to one of the P2.

Have you seen the contract?

Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.

So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.

But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."

So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.

 

[TheCatsLair]

Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.

So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.

But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."

So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.

It makes zero sense for ESPN to move Big 12 schools to the ACC. They could have done that in 2021 if it added value. The Big 12 and ACC by themselves adds value

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

It seems that two factors would drive added value in the years ahead for the top conferences:

1 - replace football underlings that take a full share but don't drive tv ratings (e.g. Vandy, etc.) with programs stuck in less than desirable matchups (i.e. FSU/Clemson/Notre Dame that play Wake or Duke, etc.).

2 - bring in basketball powerhouses such as UConn, Gonzaga, etc).

Everything else is really just moving checkers on the board for little reason. For the most part, the biggest value-add creations in #1 are stuck in the ACC GOR or are stuck in the PAC (Oregon). Seems like Oregon could move pretty freely in the next year or two. UConn/Gonzaga are pretty free as well.

Item #1 appears to be far off, but does the Big12 get bold and make things happen? Seems like it's up to them and the Big10. Something should happen in the next couple of months.

 

[CL82]

Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.

So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.

But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."

So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.

Or….

The big 10 picks up two ACC schools, say, UNC and UVA; the SEC picks up two ACC schools, say FSU and Clemson ESPN picks up one or two of the remainders and move them to the big 12. The rest are de facto relegated.

Why would ESPN pick up some ACC schools and pay them a premium in the big 12? Because then the remaining ACC schools get severely discounted.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

ESPN and Fox will only want the top brands to move from conferences not the SEC or the B1G. FSU moving into the SEC or B1G drives added value because FSU playing against other big brands drives incremental viewers/casual fans. If FSU is playing Wake Forest it's a yawner for the casual fan, but if FSU is playing Alabama or Ohio State then those matchups will bring more eyeballs than when FSU plays the other "top" brands in the ACC because those other top ACC brands aren't as strong as the top brands in the SEC or B1G. Simple logic and math drive these tv-propelled realignment decisions.

 

[upstater]

Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.

So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.

But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."

So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.

You're missing the forest for the trees.

There will be 2 national conferences.

The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.

The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.

The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.

This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

You're missing the forest for the trees.

There will be 2 national conferences.

The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.

The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.

The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.

This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.

^^^^The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The TV people have at least 51% of all of these decisions because no one wants to take a haircut revenue wise. You have to get the yea votes from the Northwesterns, the Vanderbilts, etc as much as you do from the Ohio States and the Alabamas. The only way to avoid the haircut is to bring in schools that the tv people value. Period.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

The weaker conference is always the one that gets raided. The Pac-12 was the stronger conference and could have had 4 Big 12 schools. They voted against it. Then UCLA/USC left and now the Big 12 is the stronger conference and will likely steal a couple from the Pac. If the ACC loses their most important members, those Big 12 schools aren't going to join the ACC. I think the ideal short term scenario for UConn is the Big 12 adding 3 west members and needing a 4th member to balance it out. Maybe the team that won the most recent national title in hoops??

I wish, but I don't think that will happen.

 

[Viet Vet]

Love my Huskies (class of ‘74) but let’s not ignore that this year’s basketball championship final was the lowest rated, and least watched, on record.

UConn doesn’t move the needle like UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana. We may be a “Blue Blood” program now, but we are not national TV must-see.

THAT is what the networks pay for.

 

[HuskyHawk]

You're missing the forest for the trees.

There will be 2 national conferences.

The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.

The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.

The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.

The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.

This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.

None of that is true. There won’t be two conferences. It will be 3-4. It may go to 2, but to do that they’d need to kick Vandy, Miss State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland to the curb. That doesn’t happen until the break from the NCAA. The two conference model has to be just the elite.

 

[CL82]

Love my Huskies (class of ‘74) but let’s not ignore that this year’s basketball championship final was the lowest rated, and least watched, on record.

UConn doesn’t move the needle like UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana. We may be a “Blue Blood” program now, but we are not national TV must-see.

THAT is what the networks pay for.

Lol, do you think that the opponent and the start time had anything to do with that?

 

[noeynox]

Lol, do you think that the opponent and the start time had anything to do with that?

There is always more than one way to interpret data.