You're delusional about some key realities here. In term of $ and stability, the P5 are ranked this way.How many games do you need for football? You need 8. Give me the candidates.
This is going to be a very weak league after they lose their good football schools.
Big12 schools aren't going to run to play Syracuse and Wake Forest.
They'll scrape the barrel. The world you imagine, of the ACC taking B12 members, it doesn't exist.
Did you mean to say "the best B12 teams could merge with the ACC"?If they don't, then in 3-4 years the best B12 teams could merge with the SEC and create a league that legit competes with the B1G and SEC.
You're giving me a ranking of conferences as they are now.You're delusional about some key realities here. In term of $ and stability, the P5 are ranked this way.
1A B1G - 1B SEC
3 ACC
4 Big 12
5 Pac
The ACC GOR is solid and so is the ND deal. So 13 years of stability. The new B12 deal is 5 years b/c no network would commit longer than that. The Pac has no deal at all. They struck out on landing a deal with any linear TV carrier. So while FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA may be appealing, they aren't available in the time period where things need to happen. The Pac teams are right now and the B12 teams will be soon. So that's where the B1G or SEC will look, if they do. I'm not convinced that they want or need to get bigger. Report was the B1G Presidents shot down a 24 team league that functioned like two 12 team leagues with a championship game.
There are a few ways this can go. The B12 could add Pac schools now (UA, ASU, UC and Utah). If they don't, then in 3-4 years the best B12 teams could merge with the SEC and create a league that legit competes with the B1G and SEC. KU, OK State, Baylor, Houston and Cinci join ACC. The Big 12 scraps combine with the Pac scraps.
It's basic. If the ACC falls apart, what teams are candidates for admission. UConn and USF. Memphis? S. Miss? E. Carolina?Lol, it’s not a “basic question” it is a five variable unanswerable question.
I think this scenario makes a lot of sense.The weaker conference is always the one that gets raided. The Pac-12 was the stronger conference and could have had 4 Big 12 schools. They voted against it. Then UCLA/USC left and now the Big 12 is the stronger conference and will likely steal a couple from the Pac. If the ACC loses their most important members, those Big 12 schools aren't going to join the ACC. I think the ideal short term scenario for UConn is the Big 12 adding 3 west members and needing a 4th member to balance it out. Maybe the team that won the most recent national title in hoops??
Lol, what’s the status of each of these programs in your hypothetical? What is the status of other programs? What is the status of other conferences? What is the likely prognosis that a decimated ACC will survive? What media partners are associated with the ACC at that time? What areas do those media partners want to emphasize? What are the stability of the other conferences? What is the relative media deals of the other conferences? What is the perspective media deal for the decimated ACC? Etc…It's basic. If the ACC falls apart, what teams are candidates for admission. UConn and USF. Memphis? S. Miss? E. Carolina?
Go ahead.
It is absolutely going to hold.You're giving me a ranking of conferences as they are now.
The whole discussion is about the ACC falling apart.
Good luck with that GOR and 13 years. It's not going to hold
Probably, at least until say 2034 at the earliest. At that point whatever the equivalent money damages are for breaching the GOR might be affordable for moves to one of the P2.It is absolutely going to hold.
Have you seen the contract?It is absolutely going to hold.
I already answered those questions in the 1st post I made.Lol, what’s the status of each of these programs in your hypothetical? What is the status of other programs? What is the status of other conferences? What is the likely prognosis that a decimated ACC will survive? What media partners are associated with the ACC at that time? What areas do those media partners want to emphasize? What are the stability of the other conferences? What is the relative media deals of the other conferences? What is the perspective media deal for the decimated ACC? Etc…
Are you just trolling on this or do you actually not see all the variables?
I already answered those questions in the 1st post I made.
I gave you which schools would go to which conferences. That's already been detailed.
The rest of the schools would be left behind in the ACC. At that point, they'd have one of 3 options. Add football schools (the worst choice outside of UConn and USF). Try to join the B12 (not sure why the B12 would take them, but maybe a couple). Merge with the BE. of the 3 choices, the BE one is the one that makes the most sense.
Probably, at least until say 2034 at the earliest. At that point whatever the equivalent money damages are for breaching the GOR might be affordable for moves to one of the P2.
Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.Have you seen the contract?
Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.
So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.
But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."
So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.
Or….Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.
So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.
But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."
So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.
You're missing the forest for the trees.Yes. It's an EPSN league. The SEC is an ESPN league. The B1G is a Fox league. The Big 12 has a split contract 60/40.
So, the GOR gives the TV rights to ACC schools to ESPN, no matter what league they play in. Looking at Upstaters prognostication of doom, clear issues arise. ESPN will not pay SEC rates for FSU and Clemson, because it already has that content. Fox will not give any additional $ to the B1G for content that it cannot air, and B1G schools will not dilute their payout to bring in UNC, UVA or others.
But what motivations do exist? The Pac has no contract after this season, but is split. The Big 12 is also split, details here. Big 12 reaches new media deals with ESPN, Fox
"For the “A” package, ESPN gets the top four football picks each season, six of the top eight picks, eight of the top 12 picks and 12 of the top 20 picks. As part of the deal, ESPN also gets the rights to the Big 12 football championship game and the basketball tournament championship game."
So the logical moves align to what I said. ESPN takes 60% of the Big 12 by moving it to the ACC and paying roughly what they pay now. The rest merges with the Pac, solidifying it which would be enough to get Fox to bid on it. Fox then gets the content it could add to the B1G (UW, Oregon, Stanford, Cal) but pays much less for it.
^^^^The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.You're missing the forest for the trees.
There will be 2 national conferences.
The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.
The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.
The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.
The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.
This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.
I wish, but I don't think that will happen.The weaker conference is always the one that gets raided. The Pac-12 was the stronger conference and could have had 4 Big 12 schools. They voted against it. Then UCLA/USC left and now the Big 12 is the stronger conference and will likely steal a couple from the Pac. If the ACC loses their most important members, those Big 12 schools aren't going to join the ACC. I think the ideal short term scenario for UConn is the Big 12 adding 3 west members and needing a 4th member to balance it out. Maybe the team that won the most recent national title in hoops??
None of that is true. There won’t be two conferences. It will be 3-4. It may go to 2, but to do that they’d need to kick Vandy, Miss State, Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland to the curb. That doesn’t happen until the break from the NCAA. The two conference model has to be just the elite.You're missing the forest for the trees.
There will be 2 national conferences.
The B1G wants a presence in the southeast. It should be beyond obvious by now that they want to be everywhere.
The SEC and the B1G are literally competing to take the prime real estate of the ACC. If one doesn't want to do that out of deference to Mickey Mouse, the other one will.
The TV people have almost zilch to do with this. It's about the 2 goliaths of college sports.
The idea that the states of Virginia and North Carolina would be considered a dilution to the states of Iowa and Nebraska? That's too much.
This is prime real estate. We're talking about 2 national conferences with 40 total members.
Lol, do you think that the opponent and the start time had anything to do with that?Love my Huskies (class of ‘74) but let’s not ignore that this year’s basketball championship final was the lowest rated, and least watched, on record.
UConn doesn’t move the needle like UNC, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana. We may be a “Blue Blood” program now, but we are not national TV must-see.
THAT is what the networks pay for.