Bilas on Uconn left out of expansion

[hoopsfan22]

The B10 will still be very happy to take them.

Yeah and they know it. They are in the best position with respect to conference realignment. Lucky them.

 

[upstater]

There will never be an ACC where 40% of the teams have left. The Big 12 comes up again before the ACC does. Let's see what happens, but Cinci, WVU and UConn to the ACC is viable. Then the Big XII can poach the mountain and AZ schools from the PAC, while the B1G gobbles up UW, Oregon, Stanford and Cal.

There are going to be 4 leagues left standing. The PAC isn't going to be one of them. None of those 4 are going to even consider adding basketball only schools.

The B1G12 has always wanted Virginia and UNC. It's been a long running thing for them. They even wanted Georgia Tech and Duke. I'm not sure what happens to little brothers NC State and VT in such a situation, but I'm projecting they get left behind. FSU, Miami, Clemson, 2 of these will join the SEC.

I see 5 (including ND) but possibly 7 (including ND) teams leaving the ACC.

UNC, Duke, ND, Virginia to the B1G, FSU & one of Miami or Clemson to the SEC.

Left behind: Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Louisville, VT, NC St, WF, GT to the ACC. They could backfill with WV and USF and then leave it at that, but I doubt it.

 

[upstater]

Do you understand that basketball only are worth at most only $.20 on the dollar what schools that play football? In your hypothetical, where the ACC “needs teams” it needs teams that play football. In your hypothetical, where the ACC “needs teams“ it needs teams that play football. Teams without football aren’t relevant in conference realignment because the driving force in realignment is earning broadcast rights dollars.

You may not like the fact that “football drives the bus”, but that doesn’t make it not true.

I don't understand our disconnect here. Basketball teams would not share football dollars. So the money aspect is irrelevant.

I'm talking about a rump ACC with either 6 teams or 8 teams. They won't be inviting CUSA teams to take those spots.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The B1G12 has always wanted Virginia and UNC. It's been a long running thing for them. They even wanted Georgia Tech and Duke. I'm not sure what happens to little brothers NC State and VT in such a situation, but I'm projecting they get left behind. FSU, Miami, Clemson, 2 of these will join the SEC.

I see 5 (including ND) but possibly 7 (including ND) teams leaving the ACC.

UNC, Duke, ND, Virginia to the B1G, FSU & one of Miami or Clemson to the SEC.

Left behind: Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Louisville, VT, NC St, WF, GT to the ACC. They could backfill with WV and USF and then leave it at that, but I doubt it.

That's old news. They now added two teams in Los Angeles. They won't be expanding Southeast, that ship has sailed. They may not be expanding at all. But if they do, Washington would top the list. Oregon has the sports, but not the academics. Stanford and Cal are the opposite.

I doubt that the SEC even wants FSU or Clemson, and certainly not Miami. I think some will be surprised that the ACC stays intact.

 

[CL82]

I don't understand our disconnect here. Basketball teams would not share football dollars. So the money aspect is irrelevant.

I'm talking about a rump ACC with either 6 teams or 8 teams. They won't be inviting CUSA teams to take those spots.

Yeah, I’m not sure what the disconnect is either. I don’t know how I can state it more simply than to note that non-football playing schools don’t bring any significant value, and therefore aren’t particularly attractive new conference members. I guess you’re postulating that the ACC would form some kind of hybrid conference. I think that is unlikely, because basketball only schools do not bring value to media partners. Until they do, they’re just baggage.

 

[upstater]

That's old news. They now added two teams in Los Angeles. They won't be expanding Southeast, that ship has sailed. They may not be expanding at all. But if they do, Washington would top the list. Oregon has the sports, but not the academics. Stanford and Cal are the opposite.

I doubt that the SEC even wants FSU or Clemson, and certainly not Miami. I think some will be surprised that the ACC stays intact.

If the B1G could grab UVa, ND and UNC, they'd do it instantly. Not buying that there's a lack of interest.

 

[upstater]

Yeah, I’m not sure what the disconnect is either. I don’t know how I can state it more simply than to note that non-football playing schools don’t bring any significant value, and therefore aren’t particularly attractive new conference members. I guess you’re postulating that the ACC would form some kind of hybrid conference. I think that is unlikely, because basketball only schools do not bring value to media partners. Until they do, they’re just baggage.

I'm saying their value is irrelevant since they wouldn't be sharing any football money.

We're talking a basketball only contract for them.

 

[CL82]

If the B1G could grab UVa, ND and UNC, they'd do it instantly. Not buying that there's a lack of interest.

It’s not so much lack of interest as lack of value. It would be hard enough to get a deal that would pay them their own value, never mind increase the monies being paid to the remaining conference members. That’s the bottom line. Any addition has to increase the the monies flowing to the existing members. A basketball only addition won’t do that.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm saying their value is irrelevant since they wouldn't be sharing any football money.

We're talking a basketball only contract for them.

It’s not so much lack of interest as lack of value.

Any basketball playing program in the Big East now is worth less as a basketball only school in a conference like the ACC. It would be a pittance. They'd have no reason to do it, in either direction.

 

[CL82]

Any basketball playing program in the Big East now is worth less as a basketball only school in a conference like the ACC. It would be a pittance. They'd have no reason to do it, in either direction.

That’s probably right. Assuming a new big east broadcast rates deal of $8 million per school, that equates to a value of approximately $40 million per school for a football school. That would make the move, at best, a push. I agree there’s no reason to do it on either side.

 

[upstater]

It’s not so much lack of interest as lack of value. It would be hard enough to get a deal that would pay them their own value, never mind increase the monies being paid to the remaining conference members. That’s the bottom line. Any addition has to increase the the monies flowing to the existing members. A basketball only addition won’t do that.

You don't see how these 2 massive and rich states add value? Population alone compared to most B1G states. ND has a standing offer.

 

[upstater]

It’s not so much lack of interest as lack of value. It would be hard enough to get a deal that would pay them their own value, never mind increase the monies being paid to the remaining conference members. That’s the bottom line. Any addition has to increase the the monies flowing to the existing members. A basketball only addition won’t do that.

The ACC would have a need, to provide inventory for whoever has their contract. 6 or 8 members is tough.

I believe this is the biggest reason why the top conferences are going to 16-18 or even 20 members.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The ACC would have a need, to provide inventory for whoever has their contract. 6 or 8 members is tough.

I believe this is the biggest reason why the top conferences are going to 16-18 or even 20 members.

It's just not going to happen. The ACC isn't going to lose many teams, if any. None of them are going anywhere for a decade at least, and the rest of the shuffling will be done by then. The Pac is gone, or soon will be. There will be four conferences of 16-20 teams + the MWC will expand with the worst of the Pac leftovers and be the 5th best league.

As I said above, both Cinci and WVU would jump to the ACC if given the chance. In 5 years they will probably get that chance.

 

[Kolumbo]

That's old news. They now added two teams in Los Angeles. They won't be expanding Southeast, that ship has sailed. They may not be expanding at all. But if they do, Washington would top the list. Oregon has the sports, but not the academics. Stanford and Cal are the opposite.

I doubt that the SEC even wants FSU or Clemson, and certainly not Miami. I think some will be surprised that the ACC stays intact.

I have no idea but it seems to me the rust belt would be very interested in expanding in the southeast. Lots of B1G alumni in the Carolinas and Florida as well as football recruits. I don't think the B1G is done. It's probably just trying to figure out how big to go and when. Washington, Oregon, UNC, UVA.

Oregon has the sports and is AAU which is probably good enough.

 

[CL82]

The ACC would have a need, to provide inventory for whoever has their contract. 6 or 8 members is tough.

I believe this is the biggest reason why the top conferences are going to 16-18 or even 20 members.

Well, again, the “inventory” media partners would be looking to replace is “football inventory” because 80% of the value of the contract is derivative of football. You keep talking as if football playing schools and non-football playing schools are fungible. They are not.

 

[upstater]

Well, again, the “inventory” media partners would be looking to replace is “football inventory” because 80% of the value of the contract is derivative of football. You keep talking as if football playing schools and non-football playing schools are fungible. They are not.

I have no idea what you're saying. Honestly. Football and non-football are fungible? I don't even now what you're trying to say. Do you mean they don't want basketball inventory? A network would want the total package, football and basketball.

 

[Ha Who]

Well, again, the “inventory” media partners would be looking to replace is “football inventory” because 80% of the value of the contract is derivative of football. You keep talking as if football playing schools and non-football playing schools are fungible. They are not.

I don’t disagree with you. Perhaps his thinking is McDonalds once owned a small Mexican chain. They were the powerhouse and the small chain was separate from their core money maker. I would guess his thinking is a conference might want to own some basketball schools Whatever, I still say rule 1 applies so going back and forth is irrelevant

 

[CL82]

I have no idea what you're saying. Honestly. Football and non-football are fungible? I don't even now what you're trying to say. Do you mean they don't want basketball inventory? A network would want the total package, football and basketball.

You seem to be saying, repeatedly, that if the ACC loses football playing members, it will replace them with non-football playing members. That makes zero sense to anyone who has even a vague idea of the college landscape.

This will be my last post on this subject. I’ve tried to explain this to you as has husky hawk but for whatever reason it’s not sticking. not a big deal, I just don’t think that more posts will help.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I have no idea what you're saying. Honestly. Football and non-football are fungible? I don't even now what you're trying to say. Do you mean they don't want basketball inventory? A network would want the total package, football and basketball.

There is a glut of basketball inventory. They have more than they need. Maybe if some new outlets get in the game (Amazon, Apple...) then they demand will come back. But your whole premise is based on them losing 6 schools, which won't happen. They have UConn that would join. Cinci and WVU that would switch when the Big 12 deal is up. So that's 18 total. If they lose two, they are still at 16.

I think we're going to see a rough realignment that makes some sense. ACC has the whole east coast, Boston to Miami, inland to Pittsburgh (and maybe more). SEC and B1G overlap slightly. SEC has the south from SC-FL westward to TX-OK. B1G has the North from NJ-MD westward through the upper midwest + LA. Might add PNW. Big 12 has the Plains and mountain/SW states from IA-KS-OL-TX to AZ-CO-UT. WVU and Cinci probably fit in the ACC.

 

[upstater]

You seem to be saying, repeatedly, that if the ACC loses football playing members, it will replace them with non-football playing members. That makes zero sense to anyone who has even a vague idea of the college landscape.

This will be my last post on this subject. I’ve tried to explain this to you as has husky hawk but for whatever reason it’s not sticking. not a big deal, I just don’t think that more posts will help.

Yes I have not even a vague sense of college sports. Thank you.

They'll invite Old Dominion, you're right

 

[CL82]

Yes I have not even a vague sense of college sports.

Well knowing that it’s the first step toward fixing it.

 

[upstater]

There is a glut of basketball inventory. They have more than they need. Maybe if some new outlets get in the game (Amazon, Apple...) then they demand will come back. But your whole premise is based on them losing 6 schools, which won't happen. They have UConn that would join. Cinci and WVU that would switch when the Big 12 deal is up. So that's 18 total. If they lose two, they are still at 16.

I think we're going to see a rough realignment that makes some sense. ACC has the whole east coast, Boston to Miami, inland to Pittsburgh (and maybe more). SEC and B1G overlap slightly. SEC has the south from SC-FL westward to TX-OK. B1G has the North from NJ-MD westward through the upper midwest + LA. Might add PNW. Big 12 has the Plains and mountain/SW states from IA-KS-OL-TX to AZ-CO-UT. WVU and Cinci probably fit in the ACC.

ESPN just lost the B1G. You guys have way too much confidence in the ACCs continued existence. The B1G is a lot more interested in that ACC space than you imagine. It's crucial for their football. And it's the whole reason they ever invited Maryland in the 1st place.

 

[upstater]

Well knowing that it’s the first step toward fixing it.

This reminds me of the UConn to Hockey East discussion we had here a decade ago. The idea was ridiculed, when I absolutely knew they wanted UConn to join. What happened? I feel as confident about the ACC blowing up as I did back then about UConn (which wasn't even D1) joining the BE.

 

[CL82]

This reminds me of the UConn to Hockey East discussion we had here a decade ago. The idea was ridiculed, when I absolutely knew they wanted UConn to join. What happened? I feel as confident about the ACC blowing up as I did back then about UConn (which wasn't even D1) joining the BE.

Oh, the ACC may well lose members, but they won’t look to plug those holes with schools that don’t play football because it doesn’t make financial sense.

 

[upstater]

Oh, the ACC may well lose members, but they won’t look to plug those holes with schools that don’t play football because it doesn’t make financial sense.

A lot of members. Plugging in USF won't work. They'll be down to 6 or 8 rump members