The only big difference I see is the time of the game. The #2 seed would play at 7PM on Thursday while the #3 seed would play a game scheduled at 9:30 pm (which probably wouldn't start until close to ten). That makes for a brutal night getting home after the game in NYC.
It would be highly anticipated if we had split this season, but they swept us including a recent obliteration.
I really want nothing to do with Xavier right now. They play us really tough, they're finally clicking now and they will be desperate to beat us and solidify a tournament bid.
If I had to put money on the Xavier-Butler game, I would put in Xavier, but with nervous apprehension. Butler is one of those teams that should be better than they current W-L record, IMO. They got good players, but like Nova, they seem to lose all the close games. I don't expect and easy cakewalk for Xavier at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Both Butler and Nova aren't good on the defensive end of the ball, Butler feels almost unconditioned as they've had games where they play tough and then fizzle in the last 10 minutes. It's easy to get enamored with shot making and forget about how awful some of these guys can be defensively. I'd expect the same here - neck and neck through first 30 and then Xavier pulls away. I'd be surprised if they lost.
St. John's is the 2024/25 version of Louisville in 2013/14. They are a bad match-up. They defend. O think they beat us again if we play, but at least making the Big East Final guarantees us a decent seed.
I think we beat them if we play them again
Of the 3 games needed a specific outcome ranked likeliest to least likely:
No way Pitino is resting guys in the BET, in a historical year for that program, and giving up his new stronghold on MSG. Not a chance.
It’s the regular season finale not the BET
Knowing Pitino he’s going to leak to beat writers that he’s sitting all of his starters for the finale and then proceed to play them for 38 minutes apiece
Just shows us that the margin of error between fighting for a 2 or 3 BET seed and being outside the top 25 from being ranked high in the top 25 is so slim.
Pitino is going for 18 conference wins. Only other team to do that was us. No chance he doesn't want to steal some of our thunder.
And they had this week off. The last thing you want to do is go dormant for two weeks heading into the tourneys - no chance.
The 2 or 3 doesn’t matter much. If we beat SH we are locked into the 3. I’d rather have our fate seal by winning a game we have no business losing.
But the SJU-Marquette game finishes before UConn starts. So if SJU wins, that seals UConn's seed. If Marquette wins, a UConn win wouldn't seal their seed, because it would depend on the Creighton-Butler outcome. So no matter what, UConn's result won't finalize their seed.
I want Marquette to beat St. Johns.
But if we beat SHU and Marquette loses, then the Creighton game is completely irrelevant. So, for the Creighton game to matter to us, the MU-SJU game has to matter to us.
I guess you could reasonably say it doesn't matter much but there is a pretty big drop-off between Villanova and Georgetown.
But is the reward of keeping hope alive to get the 2-seed worth the risk of leaving the possibility open of getting the 4-seed? I'm kind of on the fence, but I am thinking it's not worth it. Therefore I want Marquette to lose to SJU. The 2-seed will be out the window, but so will the 4-seed.
