Big East Tournament Scenarios

[gsmooth]

Please just avoid the damn peacock game.

I hate Peacock. The application always craps out in the middle of the game.

 

[auror]

 

[Ports21]

I hate Peacock. The application always craps out in the middle of the game.

Picture quality is usually really good for me. It's just that I have to pull up the damn app and can't flick between channels during commercials and what not. Just annoying.

 

[AllHusky]

Yarders have to lose the word "afraid" in their vocabulary as it relates to potential opponents. Ya gotta beat who is in front of you, and you won't beat them if you are afraid. Of course I am ascribing magical powers to the Yard to impact how well we compete, but hey, MOJO is MOJO right?

 

[auror]

So with creightons win last night is our outside shot of a 2 seed out the window?

We need to win both (beating Marquette in the process), then Creighton has to lose their last game, and Marquette has to beat St. John's in their other game, forcing a 3-way tie at 14-6 where we win the tiebreaker based on sweeping Marquette and splitting with Creighton.

 

[cullaville]

Does being a 2 vs being a 3 really matter?? Either way you avoid SJU until the finals.

The only big difference I see is the time of the game. The #2 seed would play at 7PM on Thursday while the #3 seed would play a game scheduled at 9:30 pm (which probably wouldn't start until close to ten). That makes for a brutal night getting home after the game in NYC.

That being said let's take the two games one at a time and hopefully UCONN wins both and we see what happens.

See you all in NYC

 

[huskyjawz]

A St John’s/UConn finale would be the most anticipated Big East Tournament championship game since maybe 2011 or 2004.

It would be highly anticipated if we had split this season, but they swept us including a recent obliteration.

 

[cullaville]

It would be highly anticipated if we had split this season, but they swept us including a recent obliteration.

 

[cullaville]

Even with the results of the two regular season games this would be highly anticipated.

The hordes of UCONN fans at the Garden along with the bandwagon jumper fans of ST. John's showing up would have the garden rocking.

The regular season Big East champs vs the defending National Champs would be a great game - reminiscent of the Big East in the eighties.

Lets take one game at a time beginning this evening and see what happens.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I’d prefer to avoid Xavier. Nova is no gimme but Xavier, on their day, is very tough.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Look tonight's game vs Marquette has the most implications for BET seeding and March Madness seeding.

If we win we move up above Marquette for BET standings, and puts another quality quad 1 win on our belt. We move up based on having the same conference record as Marquette, but would be 2-0 vs them for tiebreak #1.

Then we should be able to take care of Seton Hall at home, while Marquette faces St. John's. We are not catching Creighton so we can live with the 3 Seed in the BET. If we get the 3 and it shakes out below we likely play: Villanova -> Creighton -> St. John's

Likelihood of seeding in the BET:

Wednesday March 12th:

Game 1: 8. Butler plays 9. Providence 4pm
Game 2: 7. Georgetown plays 10. DePaul 6:30 pm
Game 3: 6. Villanova plays 11. Seton Hall 9:00 pm

Thursday March 13th:

Game 4: 1. St. John's plays 8/9 winner 12pm
Game 5: 5. Xavier plays 4. Marquette 2:30pm
Game 6: 2. Creighton plays 7 /10 winner 7pm
Game 7: 3. UConn plays the 6 /11 winner 9:30pm

Friday March 14th:

Game 8: Game 4 winner vs Game 5 winner 6:30 pm
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs Game 7 winner 9:00 pm

Saturday March 15th:

Game 10: Game 8 winner vs Game 9 winner 6:30pm - championship game

 

[superjohn]

No point talking about path to the title game when I’m not convinced we’ll beat Xavier. One game at a time

I really want nothing to do with Xavier right now. They play us really tough, they're finally clicking now and they will be desperate to beat us and solidify a tournament bid.

Watch, I just jinxed them and they'll lose to Butler tonight.

 

[gsmooth]

I really want nothing to do with Xavier right now. They play us really tough, they're finally clicking now and they will be desperate to beat us and solidify a tournament bid.

Watch, I just jinxed them and they'll lose to Butler tonight.

If I had to put money on the Xavier-Butler game, I would put in Xavier, but with nervous apprehension. Butler is one of those teams that should be better than they current W-L record, IMO. They got good players, but like Nova, they seem to lose all the close games. I don't expect and easy cakewalk for Xavier at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

 

[RuffRuff]

If I had to put money on the Xavier-Butler game, I would put in Xavier, but with nervous apprehension. Butler is one of those teams that should be better than they current W-L record, IMO. They got good players, but like Nova, they seem to lose all the close games. I don't expect and easy cakewalk for Xavier at Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Both Butler and Nova aren't good on the defensive end of the ball, Butler feels almost unconditioned as they've had games where they play tough and then fizzle in the last 10 minutes. It's easy to get enamored with shot making and forget about how awful some of these guys can be defensively. I'd expect the same here - neck and neck through first 30 and then Xavier pulls away. I'd be surprised if they lost.

I'll go on record to say that I think Xavier is about an equal team to Marquette in the current, more a testament to where I think Marquette is as a team. I might pick Xavier to win that game if they faced off at MSG. Marquette is an overvalued team based on their typical early season burst, and Kam Jones playing out of his mind. They've since tired a bit and Kam has cooled off. He's shooting 31% from 3 this year compared to his 40% last year, 27% in BE play.

Xavier much better at the 5 with Freemantle. I think Joplin stinks as one of the more inefficient starters in the BE.

 

[RuffRuff]

Didn’t want to start a new thread, thought this was interesting

 

[UCTitleTown]

Getting to the 3 would be nice. Won't have to play St John's until the title game.

St. John's is the 2024/25 version of Louisville in 2013/14. They are a bad match-up. They defend. O think they beat us again if we play, but at least making the Big East Final guarantees us a decent seed.

 

[UConnSwag11]

St. John's is the 2024/25 version of Louisville in 2013/14. They are a bad match-up. They defend. O think they beat us again if we play, but at least making the Big East Final guarantees us a decent seed.

I think we beat them if we play them again

 

[6Nattys4Us]

We need to win both (beating Marquette in the process), then Creighton has to lose their last game, and Marquette has to beat St. John's in their other game, forcing a 3-way tie at 14-6 where we win the tiebreaker based on sweeping Marquette and splitting with Creighton.

Of the 3 games needed a specific outcome ranked likeliest to least likely:
1. We beat Marquette at home - we are favored (albeit by 3.5)
2. Marquette beats St. John's at home (maybe Pitino rests some players since he's locked up the #1 seed alread?)
3. Creighton loses at home to Butler (I don't see this happening)

 

[RuffRuff]

Of the 3 games needed a specific outcome ranked likeliest to least likely:
1. We beat Marquette at home - we are favored (albeit by 3.5)
2. Marquette beats St. John's at home (maybe Pitino rests some players since he's locked up the #1 seed alread?)
3. Creighton loses at home to Butler (I don't see this happening)

No way Pitino is resting guys in the BET, in a historical year for that program, and giving up his new stronghold on MSG. Not a chance.

 

[bendm]

No way Pitino is resting guys in the BET, in a historical year for that program, and giving up his new stronghold on MSG. Not a chance.

It’s the regular season finale not the BET

 

[connVA]

It’s the regular season finale not the BET

Knowing Pitino he’s going to leak to beat writers that he’s sitting all of his starters for the finale and then proceed to play them for 38 minutes apiece

 

[RuffRuff]

We didn’t get this perk!

 

[DogMania]

Yes, and the win we handed to Nova when AK missed those 2 free throws. We should be squarely in as the 2 seed, but haven’t had many breaks go our way and obviously the McNeeley injury cost us as well. Shoulda, woulda, coulda…didn’t

Just shows us that the margin of error between fighting for a 2 or 3 BET seed and being outside the top 25 from being ranked high in the top 25 is so slim.

Imagine if they beat Memphis in Maui, or won those two games you noted above or McNeeley didn't mess up his ankle.

What surprises me most is the team still losing games since McNeeley came back, but some of the losing is linked to Karaban slumping and Diarra's bad knee. No matter the reasons the eye test clearly paints a picture how flawed and vulnerable this team is.

I'm hoping for two more BE wins and then hanging on for the post season ride. No more losses the rest of the way would be nice.

 

[jpeakin]

It’s the regular season finale not the BET

Pitino is going for 18 conference wins. Only other team to do that was us. No chance he doesn't want to steal some of our thunder.

 

[RuffRuff]

Pitino is going for 18 conference wins. Only other team to do that was us. No chance he doesn't want to steal some of our thunder.

And they had this week off. The last thing you want to do is go dormant for two weeks heading into the tourneys - no chance.