Big East Tournament Scenarios

[navery12]

2 games to go for everyone in the Big East (1 for St John's / Villanova), and the goal is to get to 2/3 seed for the BET.

Looking through scenarios and the path to a 3 seed is pretty straightforward, beat Marquette on Wednesday and we'd need a win vs Seton Hall or a Marquette loss vs St John's to lock in the 3 seed.

The path to a 2 seed is not easy, but is where things get fun. This is a longshot, but this path means avoiding a matchup with Villanova or Xavier in the quarterfinals:

The most likely path is getting into a 3 way tie with Marquette and Creighton, where UConn wins the round robin tie breaker between the 3 teams. This requires UConn beating Marquette on Wednesday, Marquette beating St John's on Saturday, and Creighton losing to 1 of Seton Hall/Buter.

The other option is UConn beats Marquette on Wednesday and Creighton goes 0-2 this week against Seton Hall and Butler, which is not happening.

The actual chances of any of this happening are here:

 

[BFieldHusky]

This is where that Seton Hall loss really comes back to bite us.

 

[Umami Zen]

My two cents. I don't see us losing either game at Gampel to finish the year. See us as the #3 seed. Additionally- Don't see Marq beating StJ either. Seton Hall playing with house money as the disruptor vs Creighton.

@navery12 .Thx for providing scenarios. Was looking for them.

 

[InKembaITrust]

Lock down that 3 seed...

 

[Pmac923]

Just win the games.

 

[80shusky]

Getting to the 3 would be nice. Won't have to play St John's until the title game.

 

[Hurleyman216]

This is where that Seton Hall loss really comes back to bite us.

Yes, and the win we handed to Nova when AK missed those 2 free throws. We should be squarely in as the 2 seed, but haven’t had many breaks go our way and obviously the McNeeley injury cost us as well. Shoulda, woulda, coulda…didn’t

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Just win the games.

...one at a time.

 

[alexd]

Does being a 2 vs being a 3 really matter?? Either way you avoid SJU until the finals.

 

[6Nattys4Us]

Does being a 2 vs being a 3 really matter?? Either way you avoid SJU until the finals.

2 plays the 7/10 winner
3 plays the 6/11 winner

6-11 is likely going to be:

6. Villanova
7. Georgetown
8. Butler
9. Providence
10. Depaul
11. Seton Hall

So playing Georgetown (likely) or DePaul (doubtful) is preferable to playing Nova (likely) or Seton Hall (doubtful)

But yes, playing St. John's in the final is the same (unless Marquette somehow beats them as the 4).

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Does being a 2 vs being a 3 really matter??

Not really. It will determine uniform colors in the semifinals but not much else.

Either way you avoid SJU until the finals.

I'm getting a little tired of seeing this. We need to be willing to face whoever's in front of us and not try to run from competition. If they beat us, they beat us. I'm not sure they are anything that great where we would have to hope for some divine intervention.

 

[Pmac923]

Not really. It will determine uniform colors in the semifinals but not much else.


I'm getting a little tired of seeing this. We need to be willing to face whoever's in front of us and not try to run from competition. If they beat us, they beat us. I'm not sure they are anything that great where we would have to hope for some divine intervention.

Agreed. We need to beat these teams if we want to feel good about ourselves moving forward in the postseason. And just so everyone knows the teams we will be playing in R1 NCAA will be better than Xavier, Georgetown and Villanova.

 

[CTBasketball]

Not really. It will determine uniform colors in the semifinals but not much else.


I'm getting a little tired of seeing this. We need to be willing to face whoever's in front of us and not try to run from competition. If they beat us, they beat us. I'm not sure they are anything that great where we would have to hope for some divine intervention.

Normally I’d agree but I do not want anything to do with St Johns. It is a horrible matchup for us.

 

[auror]

Villanova's loss has clinched a bye in the BET for UConn.

 

[bendm]

Does being a 2 vs being a 3 really matter?? Either way you avoid SJU until the finals.

Yeah I’d rather play nova/xavier than gtown. Don’t we want a couple more good wins to pad the resume? I don’t think A win against Gtown is moving the needle. Gimme wins against Marquette, Hall, nova/xavier, Creighton and SJU to win the BET and get a 6/7 seed.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Still better to get them in the finals then in the second round...

 

[djct1999]

We are not afraid of St. John’s. With Hass’s knee, we absolutely needed the bye. Once we locked that in, the opponent matters less.

 

[CTBasketball]

We are not afraid of St. John’s. With Hass’s knee, we absolutely needed the bye. Once we locked that in, the opponent matters less.

A St John’s/UConn finale would be the most anticipated Big East Tournament championship game since maybe 2011 or 2004.

 

[djct1999]

A St John’s/UConn finale would be the most anticipated Big East Tournament championship game since maybe 2011 or 2004.

Probably, but I still dont care when we play St. John’s. I think they are good but not great. Time to put an end to this story.

 

[REB1094]

No point talking about path to the title game when I’m not convinced we’ll beat Xavier. One game at a time

 

[Leebo]

Please just avoid the damn peacock game.

 

[gsmooth]

No point talking about path to the title game when I’m not convinced we’ll beat Xavier. One game at a time

Everyone here is talking about avoiding the 8-9 game in the NCAAT, which I would love as well to do, but I would like UConn to avoid the 4-5 game in the BET. But even the 3-6 game in the BET means what, UConn would play Nova. That is far from automatic-it's closer to 50-50 even though Vegas lines would have UConn favored.

 

[JB75]

So with creightons win last night is our outside shot of a 2 seed out the window?

 

[BlueandOG]

The world wants a UConn vs St. John's final. Let's make it happen.

 

[RuffRuff]

This game tonight is massive in my opinion, it either puts us on the right side of getting to a 7 seed, or firmly on the wrong side. It's also at a juncture where it feels like we are developing some things that could make us a lot more interesting in two weeks than we looked a month ago (Tarris).

This is a Marquette team we beat away, have a distinct interior advantage and I would think as long as we don't fumble the ball around like it's greased in olive oil again, should win. Tonight marks a game that is really going to show us if this team has a chance. The last two were nice warm ups against meh teams, now we have a real opponent on our turf (a place we haven't played great), on the eve of the post season.

Dare I say, most important game to date. Worst case scenario is that we are a sloppy mess, aren't hitting outside shots and Hurley moves back towards Samson and away from developing Tarris as a core piece.

Marquette has been a really meh basketball team since January. Their best win since Jan 7 has been home vs Nova. They're always tired and banged up at this point in the year. My gutt says we win by 7.