St. John's isn't sitting that bad. They have 3 losses, all of which right now are quad 1 and 2 (although plenty can change with quad rankings by end of season). They have Fordham and Hofstra to bring their OOC to 8-3. NCAAT qualification is not tied to number of wins, but if you absolutely had to pick a number, 18 regular season wins may be enough to qualify them for the tournament, even without any BET wins. Plenty of teams have had 18 reg season wins and made it in, even with a Q3 loss (which St. John's does not yet).
Thinking purely in terms of # of wins is the old way of doing things, it's all about Quad wins/losses, metrics, and SoS now.
Either way, going .500 in conf play could very well be enough, depending on how those wins/losses pan out.