nelsonmuntz
Point Center
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St. John's isn't sitting that bad. They have 3 losses, all of which right now are quad 1 and 2 (although plenty can change with quad rankings by end of season). They have Fordham and Hofstra to bring their OOC to 8-3. NCAAT qualification is not tied to number of wins, but if you absolutely had to pick a number, 18 regular season wins may be enough to qualify them for the tournament, even without any BET wins. Plenty of teams have had 18 reg season wins and made it in, even with a Q3 loss (which St. John's does not yet).
Thinking purely in terms of # of wins is the old way of doing things, it's all about Quad wins/losses, metrics, and SoS now.
Either way, going .500 in conf play could very well be enough, depending on how those wins/losses pan out.
St. Johns has a 70 NET, and one quality win. It will pick up more wins in conference, but so will all the other bubble teams. There are 7 Big East, 9 Big 12, 9 SEC and 8 Big 10 teams with better NET ratings than St. Johns, all of which have equivalent or better NCAA resumes to St. Johns in most if not all of the other criteria (otherwise they wouldn't be ranked ahead of St. Johns in NET). That is a lot of bodies for St. Johns to climb over to get an NCAA bid.
If a team is worse than a 60 NET at Christmas, the odds of getting a bid are pretty long.