Big Bubble Night Discussion | Page 10 | The Boneyard

Big Bubble Night Discussion

Brad Evans, who has a better track record than Lunardi the past 5 years, has UConn as a 10 seed.

It's a tough year with the metrics & unbalanced schedules to know what will be valued most so just keep winning.
 
Hi-Low said:
Brad Evans, who has a better track record than Lunardi the past 5 years, has UConn as a 10 seed.

It's a tough year with the metrics & unbalanced schedules to know what will be valued most so just keep winning.
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http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ is my go-to. Yes, there is a lag, but being able to judge based on many predictions (and seeing where outliers are) is great data.
 
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Lunardi's projections seem way off this season. I can't make an argument for Indiana or Minnesota being on the bubble, or even UNC being in the 'Last 4 Byes' category.

Indiana is nearly .500, Minnesota is five games below .500 in-conference, and UNC hasn't beaten anyone.
 
GetTheFacts said:
Lunardi's projections seem way off this season. I can't make an argument for Indiana or Minnesota being on the bubble, or even UNC being in the 'Last 4 Byes' category.

Indiana is nearly .500, Minnesota is five games below .500 in-conference, and UNC hasn't beaten anyone.
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In 2012, we played in the 8-9 game and we hadn't beaten anyone all season.
 
businesslawyer said:
In 2012, we played in the 8-9 game and we hadn't beaten anyone all season.
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That was different in that we were coming of a national championship, so had some respect.
 
GetTheFacts said:
Lunardi's projections seem way off this season. I can't make an argument for Indiana or Minnesota being on the bubble, or even UNC being in the 'Last 4 Byes' category.

Indiana is nearly .500, Minnesota is five games below .500 in-conference, and UNC hasn't beaten anyone.
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Big 10 and ACC play on ESPN. That's your answer. They're pumping these teams up to get eyeballs for games
 
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pepband99 said:
...which is reasonably similar to our USC win this year. Hmmmmm.
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That team also had like 13 losses going into the tournament. Had more raw talent than this team (AO, Drummond, Bazz, Boat, Giffey, Roscoe, Daniels), but what a mess of a year.
 
GetTheFacts said:
Lunardi's projections seem way off this season. I can't make an argument for Indiana or Minnesota being on the bubble, or even UNC being in the 'Last 4 Byes' category.

Indiana is nearly .500, Minnesota is five games below .500 in-conference, and UNC hasn't beaten anyone.
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Joe Lunardi's Bracketology has gone downhill, mirroring ESPN's decline in quality. Don't bother with it. If you want a more realistic bracket prediction, use Haslam Metrics.

Haslam has us as a 9 seed (totally fair) with Duke, Seton Hall, Xavier and Indiana among the group of first outs.
 
Bubble Schedule for today:

St. Bonaventure (NET 35) v. GW at 6 on ESPN+
  • A loss for the Bonnies and they would fall out of the bracket. Nothing to gain with a win in terms of getting off the bubble.
Richmond (NET 52) v. Saint Louis (NET 50) at 7 on ESPN2
  • Winner gets inside position to potentially become 2nd or 3rd A10 team behind VCU/St Bonaventure to get into tourney. Loser likely needs deep run in A10 tourney to have a chance. Very few brackets on Bracket Matrix have either team in tourney at the moment but they are right on the bubble. From UConn's standpoint, probably want Saint Louis to win since it's a Q2 game for them and Q1 for Richmond.
Utah State (NET 55) v. Nevada at 9 on FS1
  • A loss and Utah State is cooked. Not much for them to gain with a win for getting off the bubble.
 
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Storrs South said:
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Jack Nicholson Reaction GIF
 
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Stanford loses at home to Or St.

Down goes Duke!

The Gophers are cooked with Nebraska loss.

Go Trojans! Going for 20th win at Utah but looking very iffy at the moment.

UConn needs to keep taking care of it's own business and will be good.
 
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ucawn said:
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This just further shows that Lunardi doesn’t m ow what he’s doing, or that he doesn’t really pay much attention. I personally feel that UConn should be further along than last 4 byes with how good this team is with Bouk. As long as we continue to finish strong, the committee will definitely make a decision on UConn “with Bouk”, and also, Xavier gets. Massive win vs Creighton and is still first 4 out, and that was with VCU losing to a non tournament team. Yet VCU is still in last 4 byes.
 
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I don't see Xavier on the outside of the bubble with a good winning record and wins over Oklahoma and Creighton. Minnesota doesn't deserve a mention after losing to Nebraska, and Duke 1 spot behind Xavier after losing today. I have loved Lunardi over the years, and he really is projecting the committee vs the merits, but it'll be a travesty if his bracket is more accurate than Palm. This lovefest with Big 10 bottom feeders and Duke makes me puke. Xavier has 13 wins and 5 losses to Creighton, Hall, UConn, St Johns, PC. Seton Hall has the same number of wins and 10 losses coming off back to back losses to Gtwn and Butler with Penn St as their best win. Seton Hall ahead of Xavier? Really?
 
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SUNDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES:

2 PM: Michigan State @ Maryland - CBS: Suddenly, this is a very interesting game. Both teams have precarious overall resumes but Michigan State has won their last three, two of which against Illinois and Iowa.

7 PM: Nevada @ Utah State- FS1: Once considered a strong tournament consideration, Utah State has lost four of their last seven including their most recent game against Nevada. A loss tonight should knock them out completely.

Side note, Nevada is a team to watch in 21-22: No major seniors graduating, Wichita State transfer Grant Sherfield has been a star in Reno and the team adds two top-50 transfers in Texas' Will Baker and Oregon's Addison Patterson.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
SUNDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES:

2 PM: Michigan State @ Maryland - CBS: Suddenly, this is a very interesting game. Both teams have precarious overall resumes but Michigan State has won their last three, two of which against Illinois and Iowa.

7 PM: Nevada @ Utah State- FS1: Once considered a strong tournament consideration, Utah State has lost four of their last seven including their most recent game against Nevada. A loss tonight should knock them out completely.

Side note, Nevada is a team to watch in 21-22: No major seniors graduating, Wichita State transfer Grant Sherfield has been a star in Reno and the team adds two top-50 transfers in Texas' Will Baker and Oregon's Addison Patterson.
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Need Michigan State to lose. But really they’ll throw the winner on the bubble because Big10.
 
Stinger92860 said:
not everything is yes/no, sometimes smart people make poor decisions.
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Our NET is not great in part because we do not have enough wins. Unless the Selection Committee is going to use a different criteria this season, seeding is going to be heavily influenced by the NET. Furthermore, UConn's best win, USC, is getting worse.

NET Ranking 2021 College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

UConn is 36 in the NET right now. How many of those teams do you think the Huskies will jump with wins over Seton Hall and Georgetown? Maybe a deep BET run can get UConn a 4 or 5 seed, but that is a lot of eggs to put in one basket.
 
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