Big Bubble Night Discussion

87Xfer

'cause...it's coming
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if we lose more than 1 of our next 4, with Bouk and Dre getting minutes, we haven't earned a spot this season. sad but true, unless we win the BET.
 
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VCU beats St. Louis. Does this finish St. Louis @Storrs South?

It's not a nail in the coffin, but they don't have much left on the schedule to push them over the hump (home against bubble Richmond, home against KP 113 UMass). Given number of name brands sitting on the bubble and they are now 4-4 in conference in the A10, I don't see it happening.

They have beaten LSU (KP 27) & NC State (KP 71) & bubble St. Bonnie (KP 43), but lost to La Salle (KP 190) plus got swept by a Dayton team that is about on par with PC. The rest of their wins I don't care for at all. I can't see the committee being impressed by any of that.
 
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They have no room on the schedule for more games. It seems silly to wedge a game in two days apart when your best player is not in game shape to go beyond 30 minutes when games currently are 3-5 days apart.

As far as today's bubble watch before UConn at Georgetown at 9:00 PM:

  • Richmond (KenPom 59) plays UMass at 6 on ESPN+
    • a loss and RU is done
  • Saint Louis (KenPom 52) plays VCU at 6 (KenPom 46) on CBSSN
    • This is the bubble game of the day to watch out for
    • a loss for SLU and they are done, a loss for VCU and they come back to the bubble
  • Louisville (KenPom 51) plays Notre Dame at 7 on ACCN
    • A loss for Louisville has to bring them back to the bubble after the 40 point thumping they took from UNC
  • St. John's (KenPom 68 ) plays Villanova at 8 on CBSSN
    • SJU is probably already done after the DePaul loss, but if they were to beat Nova again maybe they have a chance to get back on the bubble
  • Penn State (KenPom 34) plays Nebraska at 8 on BTN
    • The KenPom number compared to their record is something to behold especially given offseason turmoil. I don't think they can get in with a losing record but something to keep an eye on as far the bubble goes
  • Ole Miss (KenPom 60) plays #24 Missouri at 9 on SEC
    • Ole Miss probably already done after losing to MSU a couple days ago but beating a good Mizzou team may get them back in the conversation

UConn won so that's most important but for the rest of the field:
  • As discussed, Saint Louis lost so I don't think they are a factor anymore
  • St. John's got smacked, they weren't and continue to be not a factor anymore
  • Ole Miss won so gotta think they are a factor to be considered replacing Saint Louis
  • Everyone else won + Michigan State beat a top 25 team in Illinois and are going to get similar treatment to Duke on the bubble in all likelihood. They have two matchups left with top 5 Michigan. Win one and they may get a big gift on Selection Sunday.
 
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UConn won so that's most important but for the rest of the field:
  • As discussed, Saint Louis lost so I don't think they are a factor anymore
  • St. John's got smacked, they weren't and continue to be not a factor anymore
  • Ole Miss won so gotta think they are a factor to be considered replacing Saint Louis
  • Everyone else won + Michigan State beat a top 25 team in Illinois and are going to get similar treatment to Duke on the bubble in all likelihood. They have two matchups left with top 5 Michigan. Win one and they may get a big gift on Selection Sunday.
Just what the Tourney needs...11 Big Ten teams that are mostly mediocre.
 
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This is exactly what I’ve been saying for the last month. We need to get the hell off the bubble because if the committee is choosing between Duke, MSU, or UConn, we will be picked last every single time. We are not the NCAA golden boy like those 2 schools.

Take care of business vs MU, win @ seton hall and we are comfortably in.
 
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New day, Same bubble

St. Bonaventure (KP 41) v. Davidson on ESPN+ at 5
  • Like St. Louis yesterday, if the Bonnies lose I think they are cooked. Their resume is pretty lackluster outside wins over bubble Richmond and likely 10/11 seed VCU. I’m not even sure how their NET is so high.
Seton Hall (KP 37) v. Butler on CBSSN at 7.
  • Seton Hall is comfortably in at the moment but could end up on the wrong side of the bubble losing to Butler after losing to Georgetown
Indiana (KP 34) v. Rutgers on BTN at 8.
  • A win probably seals Indiana in the bracket. A loss and they could be in trouble as they continue through a difficult B10 schedule
Xavier (KP 59) v. Providence on FS1 at 9.
  • Like Seton Hall, comfortably in at the moment but losing to a mediocre PC team would mean losing 3 of last 4 to PC, SJU, and UConn and then confront Creighton Saturday that could make it 4 of 5. Definitely don’t want to get caught in this trap.
 
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New day, Same bubble

St. Bonaventure (KP 41) v. Davidson on ESPN+ at 5
  • Like St. Louis yesterday, if the Bonnies lose I think they are cooked. Their resume is pretty lackluster outside wins over bubble Richmond and likely 10/11 seed VCU. I’m not even sure how their NET is so high.
Seton Hall (KP 37) v. Butler on CBSSN at 7.
  • Seton Hall is comfortably in at the moment but could end up on the wrong side of the bubble losing to Butler after losing to Georgetown
Indiana (KP 34) v. Rutgers on BTN at 8.
  • A win probably seals Indiana in the bracket. A loss and they could be in trouble as they continue through a difficult B10 schedule
Xavier (KP 59) v. Providence on FS1 at 9.
  • Like Seton Hall, comfortably in at the moment but losing to a mediocre PC team would mean losing 3 of last 4 to PC, SJU, and UConn and then confront Creighton Saturday that could make it 4 of 5. Definitely don’t want to get caught in this trap.
All 4 of these games could be close. Not sure that S Hall & Xavier are comfortably in....I've seen a good number of projections with them barely in like UConn. I think UConn should move ahead of Xavier if X loses @Prov.

The good thing is all the teams we prefer to lose are on the road.
 
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All 4 of these games could be close. Not sure that S Hall & Xavier are comfortably in....I've seen a good number of projections with them barely in like UConn. I think UConn should move ahead of Xavier if X loses @Prov.

The good thing is all the teams we prefer to lose are on the road.
I legitimately don’t get why Xavier is thought to be comfortably in and not us. I think they’re solid, and I want as many Big East teams to make it as possible. They beat Oklahoma and St. John’s. Our wins over USC and over them on the road without Bouknight seem more impressive to me.
 
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I don't agree with Lunardi on his assessment of St. Bonaventure. The A-10 is so weak this year and way too many mediocre teams with brand sitting on the bubble between Indiana, UConn, Duke, Michigan State, and Syracuse plus teams with quality wins to their resume such as Minnesota, Georgia Tech to hang on without a win today. As noted earlier, they have no great wins to their resume.

They are hanging on by a thread IMO and need to find ways to keep themselves above water because I can't see more than 1 of St. Bona, CSU, Saint Louis, and Richmond making it. Right now they get the nod, but all 4 come from weak conferences with little opportunity to get Q1/Q2 wins. Today would be a Q2 if they beat Davidson, it's the equivalent of how important Georgetown was for UConn last night. After this they only have Q3 left on the schedule.

 
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I don't agree with Lunardi on his assessment of St. Bonaventure. The A-10 is so weak this year and way too many mediocre teams with brand sitting on the bubble between Indiana, UConn, Duke, Michigan State, and Syracuse plus teams with quality wins to their resume such as Minnesota, Georgia Tech to hang on without a win today. As noted earlier, they have no great wins to their resume.

They are hanging on by a thread IMO and need to find ways to keep themselves above water because I can't see more than 1 of St. Bona, CSU, Saint Louis, and Richmond making it. Right now they get the nod, but all 4 come from weak conferences with little opportunity to get Q1/Q2 wins. Today would be a Q2 if they beat Davidson, it's the equivalent of how important Georgetown was for UConn last night. After this they only have Q3 left on the schedule.

Maybe Lunardi has a little A-10 bias being a St. Joe's grad. How he has the Bonnies ahead of UConn is odd, they have nothing OOC and in the A-10 they split with VCU & won @Richmond...that's it of note.

The A-10 should only get 2 bids this year if VCU loses A-10 Tourney & even VCU is no lock. If the Bonnies lose to Davidson tonight they should be out.
 
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