BE Bubble Update (3/15/24) | Page 3 | The Boneyard

BE Bubble Update (3/15/24)

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PC and Seton Hall are out. Feel bad for Holloway. He's done a great job. I agree it will be UConn, Marquette and Creighton, and St. John's will be in the play-in.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
the-boneyard.com

BE Bubble Update (3/8/24)

Here's how we're looking today before this weekend's last BE games and before the BET. 31. Villanova 17-13...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com

The Big 12 is marginally better than the Big East in records among the majors, yet the Big 12 is going to get 9 bids to the Big East's 3 bids. That is ridiculous, and makes a joke out of the entire selection process if it happens that way. And if you are going to give the Big 12 9 bids, then you have to give the MWC 6 bids.
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I think a couple of those Big 12 bids are in jeopardy. TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, at least one of them has to be bumped. Prob Oklahoma, and SJU still might get in. The debate between SJU vs Oklahoma will be interesting.
 
metsfan2323 said:
Why is everyone assuming St John's is out? Lunardi and his ilk are frequently wrong. Is there nobody else besides St John's that can lose their bid? Not that I really care, screw Pitino and the guy in the red coat, let them enjoy the NIT.

Pitino with a NYC team = Tuesday night ratings. Hard to imagine they would get bumped.
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Two of SJU, Oklahoma and Colorado seem most likely to be bounced. Less likely MSU is bounced, but I suppose it's possible.

I would definitely dump Oklahoma. After that it gets really interesting on how to choose the other.
 
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auror said:
This is the best resource for the bubble because it contains all the metrics that are included on the teamsheet and their averages. Plus BracketMatrix projections and the quads. Colorado is percevied as autobid so they're not included here, but they're the missing 11 if you're looking for it (alongside Princeton and Drake also autos). Note again for people mentioning it, a team's own NET rating is meaningless. And at the cut line a team's resume metrics are more important. Check the supporting evidence if you don't believe me.

bubble.png

I've sorted it by resume blend, which has been proven to be the most predictive of bubble selection/inclusion in years past. Quality aka predictive or power ratings do matter, but just not quite as much. Unfortunately KPI is an influential metric for the bubble, and it's relatively down on the Big East this season.
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Whenever I see Michigan State at #25 it makes me question why the NET has validity.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
the-boneyard.com

BE Bubble Update (3/8/24)

Here's how we're looking today before this weekend's last BE games and before the BET. 31. Villanova 17-13...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com

The Big 12 is marginally better than the Big East in records among the majors, yet the Big 12 is going to get 9 bids to the Big East's 3 bids. That is ridiculous, and makes a joke out of the entire selection process if it happens that way. And if you are going to give the Big 12 9 bids, then you have to give the MWC 6 bids.
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Sad Anthony Anderson GIF
 
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aceboon said:
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That's what I been thinking. How is Michigan State a tournament resume and not St. John's, Seton Hall, or even Providence?

Michigan Stated does not deserve their name to be called tomorrow. Makes no sense
 
Seton Hall smoked UConn by 15, had a few other good wins, no clue why they wouldn't get an invite.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
It will be really interesting to see how the Committee treats the NET and the Big 12 and MWC gaming of it. If the NET has any more than a marginal weighting, than the NCAA Selection Committee is saying that lighting up low majors is the most important factor in getting a bid.
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I feel so bad for you when you post this stuff.
 
I know they claim conference not a factor in selections but hard to believe only 3 BE teams make it but looks that way.
 
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Hi-Low said:
I know they claim conference not a factor in selections but hard to believe only 3 BE teams make it but looks that way.
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One less bid than the Pac12 and only one more than the AAC. Absurd. If there’s a positive, it’s that Danny has a new rallying cry.
 
Seamus84 said:
One less bid than the Pac12 and only one more than the AAC. Absurd. If there’s a positive, it’s that Danny has a new rallying cry.
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In the bracket projections, the First Four play-in games involve 10-seeds rather than 11-seeds because of so many out-of-nowhere automatic bid winners wandering about the field. I don't think I've ever seen that.
 
Dibbie said:
I think DePaul and GT being so horrible is going to hurt the BE bubble teams. We’re basically in a 9 team league and those bubble teams have 4/5 meaningless wins.
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DePaul finished 307/362 in KenPom, 320 NET. Well behind five NEC teams. Utterly crushing. G'town's 202/205 didn't help, but at least programs like Louisville and Vanderbilt are also in that range.
 
I’m hoping one of St. John’s or Seton Hall still gets in, but if they don’t it’s not going to be evidence of an anti-Big East prejudice. Let’s be honest — neither team did enough over the course of the season to keep themselves off the bubble, and that’s where they are. Leave out a Big East team with good OOC wins and then let’s talk prejudice. ‘Nova did that but the three quad 3 Philadelphia losses are hard to ignore.
 
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businesslawyer said:
I’m hoping one of St. John’s or Seton Hall still gets in, but if they don’t it’s not going to be evidence of an anti-Big East prejudice. Let’s be honest — neither team did enough over the course of the season to keep themselves off teh bubble, and that’s where they are. Leave out a Big East team with good OOC wins and then let’s talk prejudice. ‘Nova did that but the three quad 3 Philadelphia losses are hard to ignore.
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Yeah, just flip those 3 losses and Nova is a slam dunk. They'd be 21-12 with wins against Texas Tech, UNC, @ Creighton and a ton of solid predictive numbers (that would instead be good if they didn't lose those terrible games). They'd probably be in the 8-9 game.
 
businesslawyer said:
I’m hoping one of St. John’s or Seton Hall still gets in, but if they don’t it’s not going to be evidence of an anti-Big East prejudice. Let’s be honest — neither team did enough over the course of the season to keep themselves off teh bubble, and that’s where they are. Leave out a Big East team with good OOC wins and then let’s talk prejudice. ‘Nova did that but the three quad 3 Philadelphia losses are hard to ignore.
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I hate St. John’s. I hate Pitino. But to not get credit for playing so many games with great teams tightly without winning? They would be pissed for sure.
 
businesslawyer said:
I’m hoping one of St. John’s or Seton Hall still gets in, but if they don’t it’s not going to be evidence of an anti-Big East prejudice. Let’s be honest — neither team did enough over the course of the season to keep themselves off teh bubble, and that’s where they are. Leave out a Big East team with good OOC wins and then let’s talk prejudice. ‘Nova did that but the three quad 3 Philadelphia losses are hard to ignore.
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Huh? They both won 20 games. Only twice since 13/14 has a Big East team won 20+ games and missed the field. Would you rather Seton Hall lost to us but beat Iowa?
 
1- Uconn
2- Marquette
3- Creighton
FF- St. John’s

Seton Hall is the first team out.

The league can thank the bad call in the TCU/Georgetown game, Georgetown’s loss to Holy Cross, Xavier’s two bad losses at home, Nova’s three Philly losses, and DePaul for this.
 
Bracket Matrix last few teams in compared to St. John's:
  • St. John's (first team out) 10-12 record vs Q1/Q2
  • TX A&M (last team in) 13-10 in Q1/Q2 - 4 Q3 losses though
  • Oklahoma (2nd last team in) 9-12 vs Q1/Q2
  • Mich St (3rd last team in) 9-14 vs Q1/Q2
So I think St. John's has a legit chance over one of them...do we need 9 Big 12 schools? St. John's NET (32) is also way ahead of OK (46) & TX A&M (45).
 
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kobe said:
Sad Anthony Anderson GIF
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Wow you know someone has given up on their own program when their team doesn’t make the dance and they are celebrating for their conference….loserville for Kobe
 
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