BE Bubble Update (3/15/24)

[auror]

32. St. John's 20-12 (11-9 BE, 1-0 tourny)
Power - #26 (#25), Resume - #53 (#54)
Non-Conf SoS - #174
Away/Neutral: 7-8
Q1: 3-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler
Q2: 7-2
Top 2: 10-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 6-9 (14-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43) before winning against Seton Hall
Remaining schedule - H-UConn
Thoughts: Somehow power metrics darlings. N-Utah is currently right on the edge of Q1 vs. Q2. Seton Hall win (and UConn game today) is considered a home game by committee. Did well to stay ahead of the bubble, but questionable resume metrics and mediocre resume all over the place leave some doubt. Power metrics may be their savior.

39. Villanova 18-15 (10-10 BE, 1-1 tourny)
Power - #32 (#32), Resume - #68 (#67)
Non-Conf SoS - #71
Away/Neutral: 8-10
Q1: 4-11 (1A 2-5), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech, @-Providence
Q2: 5-1
Top 2: 9-12
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: Not going to bother
BracketMatrix - First four out before losing to Marquette
Remaining schedule - None
Thoughts: They're cooked. 15 losses, terrible resume metrics. Would take a selection committee miracle.

57. Providence 21-12 (10-10 BE, 2-0 tourny)
Power - #53 (#48), Resume - #49 (#52)
Non-Conf SoS - #236
Away/Neutral: 7-8
Q1: 6-8 (1A 3-6), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier, N-Creighton
Q2: 3-4
Top 2: 9-12
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (15-2 non)
BracketMatrix - 5th team out (#49) before Creighton win.
Remaining schedule - N-Marquette
Thoughts: Hoo boy, now this is a bubble resume. About as bubble as it comes. 6 Q1 wins is really nice, but 9-12 in first 2 quads is not great overall and only 10-12 in first 3 quads (11-0 in Q4). Mediocre power AND resume metrics, but not horrible. Bad record against teams under consideration. They really should win Marquette game today.

65. Seton Hall 20-12 (13-7 BE, 0-1 tourny)
Power - #61 (#66), Resume - #51 (#54)
Non-Conf SoS - #230
Away/Neutral: 6-9
Q1: 5-8 (1A 3-6), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 4-3
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Rutgers
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (14-2 non)
BracketMatrix - 10 seed, (#39) before loss to St. John's.
Remaining schedule - None.
Thoughts - Well that wasn't an ideal result yesterday for them. A very low KPI alongside low power metrics is making this resume considerably less appealing than their Big East record would indicate. I'm not sure how safe this team really is. I'd take Providence's resume over theirs at this point, and it's possible that St. John's and Providence will push them out of the field.

For comparison, here's the last 4 non-Big East team currently in or out of the field by BracketMatrix:

26. New Mexico 23-9 (10-8 MWC, 1-0 tourny)
Power - #33 (#39), Resume - #48 (#48)
Non-Conf SoS - #272
Away/Neutral: 11-6
Q1: 4-6 (1A 1-5), @-Nevada, H-San Diego St, N-Boise St, H-Utah St
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-UNLV, H-Air Force
Wins Under Consideration: 6-6 (17-3 non)
BracketMatrix - Last out (#45) before win over Boise.
Remaining schedule - N-Colorado St.

28. Indiana State 27-6 (17-3 MVC, 2-1 tourny)
Power - #42 (#42), Resume - #38 (#42)
Non-Conf SoS - #185
Away/Neutral: 15-5
Q1: 1-4 (1A 0-2), @-Bradley
Q2: 4-1
Top 2: 5-5
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (26-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last team in (#44) before win over BC.
Remaining schedule - None.

50. Virginia 23-9 (13-7 ACC, 1-0 tourny)
Power - #57 (#58), Resume - #31 (#31)
Non-Conf SoS - #167
Away/Neutral: 8-7
Q1: 2-6 (1A 1-3), N-Florida, @-Clemson
Q2: 8-3
Top 2: 10-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 4-5 (18-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last four in (#42) before win over BC.
Remaining schedule - N-NC State

46. Texas A&M 19-13 (9-9 SEC, 1-0 tourny)
Power - #43 (#42), Resume - #49 (#46)
Non-Conf SoS - #21
Away/Neutral: 9-8
Q1: 5-6 (1A 2-4), H-Tennessee, N-Iowa St, H-Kentucky, @-Ohio State, @-SMU
Q2: 7-2
Top 2: 12-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 5, H-Memphis, H-Ole Miss, H-LSU, H-Arkansas, @-Vanderbilt
Wins Under Consideration: 6-7 (13-6 non)
BracketMatrix - Last four out (#46) before win over Ole Miss.
Remaining schedule - N-Kentucky

 

[ctchamps]

Thank you! You are a Boneyard first team information nerd providing us with statistical analysis. Joining you are @Hey Adrien! for opposing team breakdowns and @husky429 for recruiting breakdowns.

I know I’m forgetting some others but I can’t thank you and them enough for your contributions to this forum.

 

[Travelman6]

Sorry not sorry, Indiana St, New Mexico > Nova, Providence.

 

[husky429]

Thank you! You are a Boneyard first team information nerd providing us with statistical analysis. Joining you are @Hey Adrien! for opposing team breakdowns and @husky429 for recruiting breakdowns.

I know I’m forgetting some others but I can’t thank you and them enough for your contributions to this forum.

Don't lump me in with those nerds. I just get bored.

 

[Mister Wonderful]

Don't lump me in with those nerds. I just get bored.

Ok nerd

 

[Seamus84]

Virginia is unwatchable......

 

[Tyler2Rings]

There are bid stealers in the ACC and PAC finals. Watch out!

 

[bendm]

There are bid stealers in the ACC and PAC finals. Watch out!

Yeah if Colorado holds on to beat WSU then the PAC is guaranteed to steal a bid

 

[navery12]

Yeah if Colorado holds on to beat WSU then the PAC is guaranteed to steal a bid

Colorado is pretty safely in the field by almost every single bracketologist at this point. They're not stealing a bid

 

[auror]

Yeah if Colorado holds on to beat WSU then the PAC is guaranteed to steal a bid

Colorado is in the field already most likely. So that's to say they stole the bid earlier in the week when they moved off the bubble.

 

[storrsroars]

Sorry not sorry, Indiana St, New Mexico > Nova, Providence.

But Oklahoma isn't. Surprised BR still has them on the 10 line. They're the poster child for B12 gaming the NET. They have no wins that match Friars or Nova.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Sorry not sorry, Indiana St, New Mexico > Nova, Providence.

In the RPI era of tournament selection, Providence would be a lock with their high quality wins. Because the NET rewards running up the score on bad teams, it gets a little fuzzy.

NC State would be a bid stealer, but they are not beating UNC. Colorado is not a bid stealer, but Oregon would be, and that game can go either way.

I don't think Virginia (55 NET, 2-4 Q1, 8-9 Q1+Q2, Florida is best win and there is no obvious 2nd best win) is a lock. If Oklahoma is a lock because of its NET, then 6 MWC teams are locks because they have better NETs. Does anyone think the MWC is getting 6 teams in the dance?

I think St. Johns and Providence are in the field. Big East is getting 5 bids.

Cincinnati and Villanova will be the two best NETs to not get into the tournament. I can live with that outcome.

 

[auror]

In the RPI era of tournament selection, Providence would be a lock with their high quality wins. Because the NET rewards running up the score on bad teams, it gets a little fuzzy.

NC State would be a bid stealer, but they are not beating UNC. Colorado is not a bid stealer, but Oregon would be, and that game can go either way.

I don't think Virginia (55 NET, 2-4 Q1, 8-9 Q1+Q2, Florida is best win and there is no obvious 2nd best win) is a lock. If Oklahoma is a lock because of its NET, then 6 MWC teams are locks because they have better NETs. Does anyone think the MWC is getting 6 teams in the dance?

I think St. Johns and Providence are in the field. Big East is getting 5 bids.

Cincinnati and Villanova will be the two best NETs to not get into the tournament. I can live with that outcome.

With New Mexico winning 2 games against good teams in their tournament, I do think MWC will get 6. I mean New Mexico has a decent shot at winning the autobid today too and their next closest to the cutline is a projected 8 seed. Somehow all 6 are .500 or better in the first 2 quads on a good sample of games.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

With New Mexico winning 2 games against good teams in their tournament, I do think MWC will get 6. I mean New Mexico has a decent shot at winning the autobid today too and their next closest to the cutline is a projected 8 seed. Somehow all 6 are .500 or better in the first 2 quads on a good sample of games.

Have it no thought until I read this and I know the NCAA won't do it but I would love to see NM vs St John's in Dayton for a play-in game.

Yeah, I know they call it first four but it really is a play-in game.

 

[TRest]

But Oklahoma isn't. Surprised BR still has them on the 10 line. They're the poster child for B12 gaming the NET. They have no wins that match Friars or Nova.

Oklahoma blasted PC at Oklahoma.

 

[auror]

This is the best resource for the bubble because it contains all the metrics that are included on the teamsheet and their averages. Plus BracketMatrix projections and the quads. Colorado is percevied as autobid so they're not included here, but they're the missing 11 if you're looking for it (alongside Princeton and Drake also autos). Note again for people mentioning it, a team's own NET rating is meaningless. And at the cut line a team's resume metrics are more important. Check the supporting evidence if you don't believe me.

I've sorted it by resume blend, which has been proven to be the most predictive of bubble selection/inclusion in years past. Quality aka predictive or power ratings do matter, but just not quite as much. Unfortunately KPI is an influential metric for the bubble, and it's relatively down on the Big East this season.

 

[tzznandrew]

This is the best resource for the bubble because it contains all the metrics that are included on the teamsheet and their averages. Plus BracketMatrix projections and the quads. Colorado is percevied as autobid so they're not included here, but they're the missing 11 if you're looking for it (alongside Princeton and Drake also autos). Note again for people mentioning it, a team's own NET rating is meaningless. And at the cut line a team's resume metrics are more important. Check the supporting evidence if you don't believe me.

I've sorted it by resume blend, which has been proven to be the most predictive of bubble selection/inclusion in years past. Quality aka predictive or power ratings do matter, but just not quite as much. Unfortunately KPI is an influential metric for the bubble, and it's relatively down on the Big East this season.

Did Clemson or Florida creep into Q1A?

Anyway, Virginia's predictive metrics are gross, and their play on the court is as well. They get their ass kicked against pretty much any real team. They shouldn't be in the field, but 11 in Dayton is probably fine.

I think the above mostly ranks the schools where I would. Though what, exactly, has Michigan State done?

 

[auror]

I think the above mostly ranks the schools where I would. Though what, exactly, has Michigan State done?

Agreed. Michigan St and TCU are in more trouble than BracketMatrix thinks (or possibly with update today will be in worse shape).

 

[storrsroars]

Oklahoma blasted PC at Oklahoma.

If you're saying that's their best win, you're proving my point.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I’m torn on Virginia. They don’t deserve to be in, even though everyone says they are based in metrics.

So it will irk me if/when they get in.

On the other hand, it would be delicious if they do get in and then proceed to score 42 pts and get blown out in a play-in game. I’m not sure which outcome I’d like to see more!

 

[businesslawyer]

With New Mexico winning 2 games against good teams in their tournament, I do think MWC will get 6. I mean New Mexico has a decent shot at winning the autobid today too and their next closest to the cutline is a projected 8 seed. Somehow all 6 are .500 or better in the first 2 quads on a good sample of games.

Creighton’s 2 losses to the MWC early in the season had a huge, long term result on the entire conference’s metrics. But that’s because the MWC teams won the games. Not gaming the system.

 

[auror]

I just made a quick model, and maybe I'm overindexing on resume and I'm overselling Virginia in my comments today. If you weight it 40% resume, 30% quality, and 30% Q1 performance (ave of raw number of wins rank and win% rank)... it looks pretty accurate. It's higher on Pitt slightly vs. consensus and has St John's right on the cutline (but in barring bid thieves).

			Resume		Quality		Q1
Seed	TEAM (BracketMatrix 3/15)	NET	AVG	Rank	AVG	Rank	Q1 Rank Ave	Q1 Performance Rank	Total	Rank
8	Texas A&M F4O	42	38.5	4	39	10	1.00	1	201	1
9	Mississippi St. 10	32	35	1	30.5	5	9.00	11	198	2
9	TCU 9	43	44	9	29	3	8.00	9	178	3
10	New Mexico 11	22	43.5	8	34.5	8	6.00	7	173	4
10	Northwestern 9	54	36.5	3	42.5	12	8.50	10	172	5
10	Colorado St. 8	37	41.5	6	55	17	2.50	2	169	6
10	Pittsburgh F4O	41	50	11	36.5	9	6.00	7	158	7
11	Michigan St. 10	25	46.5	10	19	1	18.50	20	147	8
11	Oklahoma 10	46	40.5	5	41	11	13.50	17	146	9
11	St. John's 10	34	58	17	25.5	2	11.50	13	137	10
F4O	Providence F4O	57	56.5	16	50.5	15	3.00	3	132	11
F4O	Virginia 11	55	35.5	2	61.5	19	20.00	21	122	12
F4O	Seton Hall 11	66	53	13	66	22	5.50	5	117	13
F4O	Indiana St. F4O	30	41.5	6	43	13	23.00	24	115	14
	Kansas St. N4O	70	55	15	64	21	5.50	5	112	15
	Cincinnati	38	60	19	34	7	12.00	14	111	16
	Villanova N4O	40	68.5	22	31	6	12.00	14	102	17
	Wake Forest	44	58.5	18	30	4	21.50	22	100	18
	Ohio St. N4O	50	53	13	43.5	14	16.00	19	99	19
	Oregon	61	51.5	12	61	18	14.00	18	94	20
	Utah	49	65.5	21	51	16	10.50	12	82	21
	UNLV	77	78	24	69.5	23	3.00	3	76	22
	North Carolina St.	68	63.5	20	63	20	21.50	22	44	23
	Butler	67	69.5	23	70.5	24	12.00	14	44	23

 

[storrsroars]

Given we're really only talking about eight slots, this^ might give Pitino a heart attack.

 

[tzznandrew]

I just made a quick model, and maybe I'm overindexing on resume and I'm overselling Virginia in my comments today. If you weight it 40% resume, 30% quality, and 30% Q1 performance (ave of raw number of wins rank and win% rank)... it looks pretty accurate. It's higher on Pitt slightly vs. consensus and has St John's right on the cutline (but in barring bid thieves).

			Resume		Quality		Q1
Seed	TEAM (BracketMatrix 3/15)	NET	AVG	Rank	AVG	Rank	Q1 Rank Ave	Q1 Performance Rank	Total	Rank
8	Texas A&M F4O	42	38.5	4	39	10	1.00	1	201	1
9	Mississippi St. 10	32	35	1	30.5	5	9.00	11	198	2
9	TCU 9	43	44	9	29	3	8.00	9	178	3
10	New Mexico 11	22	43.5	8	34.5	8	6.00	7	173	4
10	Northwestern 9	54	36.5	3	42.5	12	8.50	10	172	5
10	Colorado St. 8	37	41.5	6	55	17	2.50	2	169	6
10	Pittsburgh F4O	41	50	11	36.5	9	6.00	7	158	7
11	Michigan St. 10	25	46.5	10	19	1	18.50	20	147	8
11	Oklahoma 10	46	40.5	5	41	11	13.50	17	146	9
11	St. John's 10	34	58	17	25.5	2	11.50	13	137	10
F4O	Providence F4O	57	56.5	16	50.5	15	3.00	3	132	11
F4O	Virginia 11	55	35.5	2	61.5	19	20.00	21	122	12
F4O	Seton Hall 11	66	53	13	66	22	5.50	5	117	13
F4O	Indiana St. F4O	30	41.5	6	43	13	23.00	24	115	14
	Kansas St. N4O	70	55	15	64	21	5.50	5	112	15
	Cincinnati	38	60	19	34	7	12.00	14	111	16
	Villanova N4O	40	68.5	22	31	6	12.00	14	102	17
	Wake Forest	44	58.5	18	30	4	21.50	22	100	18
	Ohio St. N4O	50	53	13	43.5	14	16.00	19	99	19
	Oregon	61	51.5	12	61	18	14.00	18	94	20
	Utah	49	65.5	21	51	16	10.50	12	82	21
	UNLV	77	78	24	69.5	23	3.00	3	76	22
	North Carolina St.	68	63.5	20	63	20	21.50	22	44	23
	Butler	67	69.5	23	70.5	24	12.00	14	44	23

Given the choice, I'm higher on Pitt than Virginia. Pitt has that killer loss (Missouri) but has beaten good teams on the road (Duke). They beat Virginia on their floor.

 

[Hi-Low]

St. John's likely gets in but wouldn't be shocked if they don't....they have 1 win over a Tourney team (Creighton) otherwise just BE wrong side of "bubble" wins...Nova/Prov/Hall/Butler. No notable OOC wins either. Will definitely be in the play-in round if they make the field.