Battle in the Bubble - Rothstein

[HuskyHawk]

Yea my point went way over all your head. I'm not saying I don't care. I'm saying that insofar as our country can still not even get first-order problems - IE, contain a virus that has killed 200k people anywhere near under control - we should not be pretending things are back to normal. And we sure as hell should not be polling a bunch of 18-year-olds that lift weights 10 months a year so they can play 10 games a year whether or not they want to play. We all know the answer. We all also must know its a silly and unnecessary risk - to their lives and to others.

The virus cannot be contained. Just ask the Europeans. Look at the map of current outbreaks in Spain, Italy and France and you will see they are in all the places that were spared in the spring. Same as we saw here across the sunbelt and Southwest. Even places like Singapore and Japan saw new outbreaks. Despite this, Europe is opening their schools, in person. Containment can only be temporary and comes at great cost. Lockdowns are a public policy failure, here and everywhere.

Meanwhile, we now know that our idiotic tests produce false positives at enormous rates. If we used the German standard of 30 cycles in a PCR test up to 80-90% of recent positives in NY and MA would be negative.

Before we choose the bubble, let’s fix the tests. The CDC itself suggests the maximum cycles should be 33. Our tests range from 37-40. We owe it to all students, K-12 and college, to stop closing down classes and quarantining them based on these tests and the false positives they produce. We are doing what we did in the spring, setting policy based on bad data.

 

[businesslawyer]

Thank you...older/old people like to place blame on young people. I don't think it's ever more evident than it is right now. When you're young you're almost supposed to screw up, it's a part of your DNA, it's a part of growing up. We're dealing with a once in a century pandemic where adults have completely screwed up every step of the way and yet I'm seeing old people say "young people" are selfish. Give me a break.

Old people are the ones who run everything and they are the ones who die from the virus. Why should young people have to put their lives on hold for well over a year? The younger generations are the first generations who are positioned worse off than their parents and we're telling them to indefinitely put everything on hold for the "greater good." The selfish group in this equation and the ones letting us down with their decisions are the adults.

Kids aren't being properly educated and socialized, we're canceling their sports, we're telling them not to hang out with their friends and we're seeing politicians and presidents of schools have the nerve to call them selfish and placing all the blame on them when we put them in untenable situations where they are set up for failure. When they're all living at home years from now because we destroyed their economic futures they'll be blamed again for being "lazy" and not being able to live on their own.

I agree with your central premise that young adults are being asked to make sacrifices right now even though they are less at risk of death from the virus than older Americans.

But you need to look in a mirror. You actually just complained that young people are being asked to give up sports for a while when the reason that they are being asked to do so is TO PREVENT A VIRUS HOLOCAUST OF OLDER AND LESS HEALTHY AMERICANS. Not everything is an intergenerational conspiracy theory (although if you're talking about things like deficits and college costs, I agree they are). A competent society asks for sacrifices that are for the greater good. If you don't believe in that, there is little reason for society because you're just allowing everyone to do what they want to do without worrying about its effects on others. So we should allow smoking in public places, making traffic laws optional, etc.

 

[Dogdeacon]

The virus cannot be contained. Just ask the Europeans. Look at the map of current outbreaks in Spain, Italy and France and you will see they are in all the places that were spared in the spring. Same as we saw here across the sunbelt and Southwest. Even places like Singapore and Japan saw new outbreaks. Despite this, Europe is opening their schools, in person. Containment can only be temporary and comes at great cost. Lockdowns are a public policy failure, here and everywhere.

Meanwhile, we now know that our idiotic tests produce false positives at enormous rates. If we used the German standard of 30 cycles in a PCR test up to 80-90% of recent positives in NY and MA would be negative.

Before we choose the bubble, let’s fix the tests. The CDC itself suggests the maximum cycles should be 33. Our tests range from 37-40. We owe it to all students, K-12 and college, to stop closing down classes and quarantining them based on these tests and the false positives they produce. We are doing what we did in the spring, setting policy based on bad data.

Is your virus cannot be contained contention a social one? Because clearly China, Mongolia, most of the 'stan' countries have shown that it can be contained. Meanwhile it isn't hard to look at the mixing pot of Europe and guess its harder (even moreso than US) or India and see its almost impossible to contain there. But it is imminently possible to contain in the US (say vs India), with things like better testing that you mention, better contract tracing, a coordinated national effort and policy. Plus most experts agree that protective and preventative measures slow the spread.

For the widespread openings we'd first need to all know the likely outcomes and come to a consensus agreement and acceptance of the consequences of unmitigated spread. That is unlikely and not good public policy as others in this thread have eloquently asserted. So instead partial openings will continue to undo exactly what they are trying to cure.

 

[gtcam]

Couple questions after reading your post. No attack here, just curiosity. First, who is requiring that your daughter play Collegiate Soccer? Secondly, how will losing a year of sports impact them for the rest of their lives? I just figured that the College Degree could potentially outweigh the loss of a season of sports. Like I said, no attack here, just curiosity.

It appears apparent that you haven't or don't have children that have a desire to play collegiate athletics. Nobody is requiring anyone to play sports on any level - kids do it, for the most part, because they are competitive and want to play at the highest level possible for them. It has nothing to do with a requirement.
If someone loses an opportunity, whether it be within or beyond their personal control. it does have an impact to their lives- the level of it depends on circumstances and how important it is to the individual.
Yes those who don't have the ability or desire to play their sport at an income producing level are at school to earn a degree but that should not diminish the importance of athletic/non curricular activity participation.

 

[gtcam]

Another one for the Risk Management Expert - Sturgis Rally this year was held with the support of Governor Kristi Noem - You can find her quote IN THIS ARTICLE from 3 weeks ago. So, for all intents and purposes as a matter of law and listening to the experts they followed that guidance.

And yet they could have, out of an abundance of safety, respect, and duty to protect their fellow countrymen, they could/should have chosen to postpone their stupid motorcycle rally.

Instead...

The rally could be the single point of dissemination for 250,000 cases at a cost of $12 Billion to US Taxpayers.

View attachment 58493

So tell me again, should they have felt more fear? or was their Fear/Risk Matrix properly calibrated? They followed the letter of the law and guidance, after all just as you are.

And yet, here we still are.

I read your posts knowing that all this important research you throw up has no political slant

Good like with your studies

 

[Dogdeacon]

I read your posts knowing that all this important research you throw up has no political slant

Good like with your studies

Which is the side that thinks science is political?

 

[UCSouth]

It appears apparent that you haven't or don't have children that have a desire to play collegiate athletics. Nobody is requiring anyone to play sports on any level - kids do it, for the most part, because they are competitive and want to play at the highest level possible for them. It has nothing to do with a requirement.
If someone loses an opportunity, whether it be within or beyond their personal control. it does have an impact to their lives- the level of it depends on circumstances and how important it is to the individual.
Yes those who don't have the ability or desire to play their sport at an income producing level are at school to earn a degree but that should not diminish the importance of athletic/non curricular activity participation.

First of all, I only framed the question based on what another poster had written. So maybe you should try reading the post I originally replied to and it would have saved you the time it took for you to write your response. Secondly, I do have children that played Collegiate Sports and were very successful at it.

 

[superjohn]

I agree with your central premise that young adults are being asked to make sacrifices right now even though they are less at risk of death from the virus than older Americans.

But you need to look in a mirror. You actually just complained that young people are being asked to give up spots for a while when the reason that they are being asked to do so is TO PREVENT A VIRUS HOLOCAUST OF OLDER AND LESS HEALTHY AMERICANS. Not everything is an intergenerational conspiracy theory (although if you're talking about things like deficits and college costs, I agree they are). A competent society asks for sacrifices that are for the greater good. If you don't believe in that, there is little reason for society because you're just allowing everyone to do what they want to do without worrying about its effects on others. So we should allow smoking in public places, making traffic laws optional, etc.

I don't think young people should be burdened with ruining their futures because some 80 year olds may not get to live a few more years. Young people have been screwed over left and right by the selfishness from older people and now are they're told to put their lives on hold and prepare for an even worse future all while they're called selfish by old people.

And all of it for what? Our strategy/lack of strategy has just prolonged the suffering.

 

[businesslawyer]

I don't think young people should be burdened with ruining their futures because some 80 year olds may not get to live a few more years. Young people have been screwed over left and right by the selfishness from older people and now are they're told to put their lives on hold and prepare for an even worse future all while they're called selfish by old people.

And all of it for what? Our strategy/lack of strategy has just prolonged the suffering.

Not playing amateur sports is not "preparing for an even worse future." It's giving up something you like doing. All Americans who are doing their part are giving up things important to them. I've seen my 33 year old who lives 60 miles away only once since March, won't eat in a restaurant and no matter how good UConn is won't go to a basketball game this season, if there is one. Not jus because I'd like not to get sick BUT BECAUSE I'M CONCERNED ABOUT PASSING THE VIRUS ON TO OTHERS IF I GET IT.

That you're comparing the potential of saving lives to participating in recreational activities is frankly mind boggling. You're worried about others calling you selfish because you won't give up sports to save lives? That's literally what being selfish is.

 

[casual-yardin]

The Boomer generation is collectively an incredibly selfish one. They went to college when it cost 45 cents a class, and your house was the price of a loaf of bread. As a group, they're unwilling to do things for others that don't even negatively affect them. As much as we make fun of kids being out of touch these days, I have seen more empathy from them as a group than any 50+ group by far.

That must have been some expensive bread. When exactly was this?

The "boomer = selfish" argument is silly. Young people have the most opportunity of any generation and that will continue to apply to each successive generation. Your grandkids will call you selfish one day.

PS: I'm not a boomer (I know you were itching to type "OK Boomer").

 

[superjohn]

Not playing amateur sports is not "preparing for an even worse future." It's giving up something you like doing. All Americans who are doing their part are giving up things important to them. I've seen my 33 year old who lives 60 miles away only once since March, won't eat in a restaurant and no matter how good UConn is won't go to a basketball game this season, if there is one. Not jus because I'd like not to get sick BUT BECAUSE I'M CONCERNED ABOUT PASSING THE VIRUS ON TO OTHERS IF I GET IT.

That you're comparing the potential of saving lives to participating in recreational activities is frankly mind boggling. You're worried about others calling you selfish because you won't give up sports to save lives? That's literally what being selfish is.

I'm talking about everything. Kids are giving up their education, socialization, sports, economic futures. They were worse off than the previous generations before we put this on them, if you don't see how we're creating a lost generation you're either blind or selfish...possibly both.

 

[Hurleyman216]

I don't think young people should be burdened with ruining their futures because some 80 year olds may not get to live a few more years. Young people have been screwed over left and right by the selfishness from older people and now are they're told to put their lives on hold and prepare for an even worse future all while they're called selfish by old people.

And all of it for what? Our strategy/lack of strategy has just prolonged the suffering.

This is such a ridiculous take...I don't consider myself old or young (I'm younger than 40, but have been out of college for over 15 years). But I also have a grandparent who is over 90 and still alive, my preference is to not kill her because I'm doing something I could have avoided. I have a 3 year old who is not going to pre-school because it will put all of her grandparents who are in their 60's-70's at risk. Now isn't the time to be selfish, it's the time to use common sense. It sucks if the season gets cancelled, but it won't be for the "boomers" being selfish. If anything, making these college kids play in a bubble so that a bunch of old men can sit at home and watch for their enjoyment is just as selfish if not more than cancelling the season altogether. Unfortunately with this pandemic there are no answers that appease everyone until there is a vaccine. I ALMOST wish that this virus impacted kids the way it does adults because I feel like as a society we would stand up to protect the kids by doing everything humanly possible (which we're not doing now to protect our older population).

 

[superjohn]

This is such a ridiculous take...I don't consider myself old or young (I'm younger than 40, but have been out of college for over 15 years). But I also have a grandparent who is over 90 and still alive, my preference is to not kill her because I'm doing something I could have avoided. I have a 3 year old who is not going to pre-school because it will put all of her grandparents who are in their 60's-70's at risk. Now isn't the time to be selfish, it's the time to use common sense. It sucks if the season gets cancelled, but it won't be for the "boomers" being selfish. If anything, making these college kids play in a bubble so that a bunch of old men can sit at home and watch for their enjoyment is just as selfish if not more than cancelling the season altogether. Unfortunately with this pandemic there are no answers that appease everyone until there is a vaccine. I ALMOST wish that this virus impacted kids the way it does adults because I feel like as a society we would stand up to protect the kids by doing everything humanly possible (which we're not doing now to protect our older population).

If you're 90 you've lived an amazing life and have lived longer than most. Hanging on for a couple more years while putting the future of young people in jeopardy where they won't have the luxury of having as good a life as their parents and grandparents is incredibly selfish.

Lockdowns have been a failure, it's created unbelievable economic pain and closures all over while just delaying the inevitable. The virus is surging like crazy in France, Spain, and the UK...it will here as well. Winter is going to be brutal with another major wave and everything going out of business.

 

[August_West]

Not playing amateur sports is not "preparing for an even worse future." It's giving up something you like doing. All Americans who are doing their part are giving up things important to them.

could you imagine this current culture living through WW2?


LOL peoples lives were on hold for four years! pro sports cancelled for 4 years!!! sacrifices made by EVERY family in the country job wise and otherwise.

Who made the biggest sacrifice? Young people. With their lives. With their service to the country.



But "Im going to miss a semester of college sports" or " my zero win college football team's season is suspended" during an unprecedented global pandemic.


I have no doubt that if the Holocaust happened in 2020 that 1/2 this country (and you know which half) would scream "Fake news" upon reports of it.



you want exhibit 1a how we arent even close to being the greatest country in the world now (like we were during WW2 and after)?


look no further.

 

[superjohn]

could you imagine this current culture living through WW2?


LOL peoples lives were on hold for four years! pro sports cancelled for 4 years!!! sacrifices made by EVERY family in the country job wise and otherwise.

Who made the biggest sacrifice? Young people. With their lives. With their service to the country.



But "Im going to miss a semester of college sports" or " my zero win college football team's season is suspended" during an unprecedented global pandemic.


I have no doubt that if the Holocaust happened in 2020 that 1/2 this country (and you know which half) would scream "Fake news" upon reports of it.



you want exhibit 1a how we arent even close to being the greatest country in the world now (like we were during WW2 and after)?


look no further.

Could you imagine comparing WW2 to this?

 

[August_West]

Could you imagine comparing WW2 to this?

On average, 220 U.S. service personnel died per day -- nearly 6,600 every month -- for the 1,364 days that America fought.


So far corona is taking 31000 plus lives a month in US

Can you imagine that you are so wrong you are right?

The ww2 comparison doesn’t hold water. Corona worse.

Egg all over your face dude.

Why? Because no unity on getting a hold of it. Unlike ww2

 

[superjohn]

On average, 220 U.S. service personnel died per day -- nearly 6,600 every month -- for the 1,364 days that America fought.


So far corona is taking 31000 plus lives a month in US

Can you imagine that you are so wrong you are right?

The ww2 comparison doesn’t hold water. Corona worse.

Egg all over your face dude.

Why? Because no unity on getting a hold of it. Unlike ww2

You're comparing a virus where the average age of death is the same as the average life expectancy to Nazism taking over Europe and possibly the world if we didn't get involved and sacrifice to save the world. You're comparing the slaughter of families, children, babies etc. to a virus which kills old people with 2 or more comorbidities...

The lockdowns are doing more damage than the virus ever could have. This is a strategy of delaying the inevitable while causing maximum pain everywhere.

 

[August_West]

You're comparing a virus where the average age of death is the same as the average life expectancy to Nazism taking over Europe and possibly the world if we didn't get involved and sacrifice to save the world. You're comparing the slaughter of families, children, babies etc. to a virus which kills old people with 2 or more comorbidities...

The lockdowns are doing more damage than the virus ever could have. This is a strategy of delaying the inevitable while causing maximum pain everywhere.

5 times (5 TIMES!!!) the deaths of ww2 monthly right now. Country locked down for ww2.

No american babies (or stay at home families or children) were slaughtered during WW2. Get a grip

 

[superjohn]

5 times (5 TIMES!!!) the deaths of ww2 monthly right now. Country locked down for ww2.

No american babies (or stay at home families or children) were slaughtered during WW2. Get a grip

This is really bad on your part...you should probably drop this one.

 

[August_West]

This is really bad on your part...you should probably drop this one.

Make a case.

Im just using numbers.

I get it.

You dont want your sports or sweaty gym workouts interrupted.

People (Americans) made WAY bigger sacrifices in WW2 for 1/5 of monthly deaths. Yes or no?

 

[Hurleyman216]

If you're 90 you've lived an amazing life and have lived longer than most. Hanging on for a couple more years while putting the future of young people in jeopardy where they won't have the luxury of having as good a life as their parents and grandparents is incredibly selfish.

Lockdowns have been a failure, it's created unbelievable economic pain and closures all over while just delaying the inevitable. The virus is surging like crazy in France, Spain, and the UK...it will here as well. Winter is going to be brutal with another major wave and everything going out of business.

I'm having a hard time following your logic...so 90 year old should all die of COVID so that kids can go play basketball? Does that sum it up? I think this is putting EVERYONE'S lives on hold, not just young people. And, if the situation were flipped and it meant that 90 year olds weren't impacted but YOU were, I would hope that those senior citizens would have more empathy for you than you have for them. You kind of sound like a miserable human being.

 

[superjohn]

I'm having a hard time following your logic...so 90 year old should all die of COVID so that kids can go play basketball? Does that sum it up? I think this is putting EVERYONE'S lives on hold, not just young people. And, if the situation were flipped and it meant that 90 year olds weren't impacted but YOU were, I would hope that those senior citizens would have more empathy for you than you have for them. You kind of sound like a miserable human being.

I don't know what you're having trouble following. No, I don't think we should create a lost generation because we think it may save some 90 year olds. I place more value on the lives of young people more than I do 90 year olds, before this pandemic started I thought most everyone did as well. I think we're doing more damage with the way we're handling this than the virus ever could've done.

 

[businesslawyer]

Could you imagine comparing WW2 to this?

Yes, actually. You'd sacrifice for liberty but not for human lives? If your answer is "yes" then it means you're only interested in your liberty, not other people's liberty, because most people would understand that someone who is dead does not have liberty.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm having a hard time following your logic...so 90 year old should all die of COVID so that kids can go play basketball?

That's what he's saying.

 

[Dogdeacon]

So silly, the openupasaurus isn't going to answer questions and will keep restating the narrow facts case or attack an analogy and play the blame game vs discussing the actual situation, pursuing a viable solution.
There are 4 basic flawed theories and talking points that the open up crowd clings to:
1. We cannot contain the virus. Even though protection works, social distancing works and other countries have done RIDICULOUSLY better than the USA, the other dumbfnations are cited as proof that the Virus is Dion Waiters pre-playoffs, you can never stop it, only hope to contain it.
2. Virus only or mostly or predominately effects older people & sick people- problem is this is then framed as if older people sign up for virus Kool Aid so that younger people go on about their day. Problem solved! No one is doing this, no one is testing this and this never was and never will be the case. It is not an option so citing it as an excuse to partially open is Ostrich level behavior. Also, generally speaking isn't it a virtue to PROTECT OUR MOST VULNERABLE?!
3. Herd Immunity: This sounds good to all of us, but there are NEVER specifics, no country has achieved this (best is exponential spread flattens) and it harkens grimly back to #2, by definition herd immunity benefits the strongest and the herd is continually culled.
4. The economic damage > sickness & death & try to avoid citing massive public health crisis and maybe just maybe FOCUSING ON THAT RESPONSE FIRST!!: "I've seen the needle and the damage done, a little part of it in everyone." I've no idea how the stock market is still as high as it is, but there are going to be long term economic consequences and continually re-opening without a plan makes it worse and worse and worse. This argument boils down to combating losses by gambling on exponentially increasingly uncertain outcomes.