B12 and ACC on the clock!

[Exit 4]

Go on the Syracuse message board and see how many posters wish syracuse was in the big east

Its easy for people that don't write checks to want things.

Syracuse could never afford the deficits the state tax payers of CT fund to make UConn sports go.

B12 is hardly ideal....but what else that is not ideal is fiscal fantasy we have been operating under.

Dan Hurley needs to get paid. The B12 has the revenues to allow us to keep him.

 

[Exit 4]

Trying to quantify what would be “enough money” to justify a move to the big 12, I came up with this:

1) Best lightly scenario for big east broadcast rate revenue in the new contract: $8M

2) Herbst said that by moving to the big east, we saved approximately $2 million a year in travel costs. Let’s assume that that would be the same as travel cost of the big 12, although it may be more.

3) Assuming the above points are correct a basketball only broadcast rights distribution in the big 12 of $10 million would be breakeven for any current Big East schools.

4) No school would move for breakeven, so the big 12 would have to be offering some significant amount above that to induce schools to move. Let’s assume that the lowest amount which would maybe make the move worthwhile $12M. It may well need to be more than this.

5) Based upon Notre Dame’s deal with the ACC. The basketball only portion of a broadcast rates deal is worth no more than 20% of the whole.

6) in order to pay former big east conference schools $12 million as a basketball only, without diluting any schools existing shares, the big 12 would have to be earning $60 million per school in broadcast rights. It isn’t.

So, unless they find a media partner who is willing to pay the big east schools, more than fair market value, or unless the existing big 12 schools agree to take a reduced share to bring in the big east schools, the numbers don’t appear to work.

Your summary makes a lot of sense.

The unknown here - tv slot times (what if the next BE deal is 70% streaming - does that change the calculus?).
What if Fox is just overly confident that a mega B12 (B12 + the four BE coastals) is just a property they want to create to anchor their programming and thus pay up for. What if its about more than eyeballs, but also the quality of the eyeballs. IDK - we shall see.

Nothing happens until the P12's fate is decided first.

 

[TheCatsLair]

No thanks to the Big 12 and ACC. Big 12 would be great for basketball, but so is the Big East and we actually have history with BE schools. The only Big 12 schools I give a crap about in basketball are Kansas, Baylor, and maybe WVU. That conference will become meaningless in football once Texas and OU leave. We obviously have a lot of history with some of the ACC schools, but no one knows if that conference will get gutted or not, rather not take the chance. B1G would be a great fit, but they will never take us with how bad the football program is and how little potential it has. I know that football rules the college landscape, but after learning the hard way with the AAC debacle, we need to first and foremost ensure that our basketball programs are set up to continue dominating.

The new Big 12 members have won the last two Big 12 titles (Texas and OU were not in them) with Top 10 teams and have two CFP teams. They're doing fine without Texas and Oklahoma. And if you take out OU and Texas ratings the new Big 12 is still #3 behind only rhe Big Ten and the SEC. And that's not even counting huge annual promotional events like the Pro Day in Dallas

 

[CL82]

I'm not saying turn down a nice offer. At the same time, there is the choice of going after the money and possibly sucking, ala SU and BCU. If you don't make the money in media rights fees but win natties, what's that worth? We don't know. But maybe it helps cover the deficit. Who knows, it's all a crap shoot. To @Beachview 's point, lots of SU posters are thinking of scenarios assuming the ACC dissolves and where to go from there. It's all good.

I hear you, but I’m pretty confident that whatever the value is of the increased presence of winning a national championship is, it’s not worth $30 million.

Personally, I reject the notion that Connecticut could win national championships in the ACC. None of the Big East schools that moved to the ACC were national champions, unless you’re willing to ignore that huge*beside Syracuse’s one Natty. Boston College sucked before they went to the ACC, they sucked afterwards. Except for a momentary burst, Pittsburgh hasn’t really been a basketball power. Syracuse is an utter train wreck, but that has more to do with Jim Boeheim, then their conference affiliation.

 

[TheCatsLair]

I hear you, but I’m pretty confident that whatever the value is of the increased presence of winning a national championship is, it’s not worth $30 million.

Personally, I reject the notion that Connecticut could win national championships in the ACC. None of the Big East schools that moved to the ACC were national champions, unless you’re willing to ignore that huge*beside Syracuse’s one Natty. Boston College sucked before they went to the ACC, they sucked afterwards. Except for a momentary burst, Pittsburgh hasn’t really been a basketball power. Syracuse is an utter train wreck, but that has more to do with Jim Boeheim, then their conference affiliation.

Louisville had a national title before jumping to the ACC.

 

[MKH2317]

Go on the Syracuse message board and see how many posters wish syracuse was in the big east

I can confirm there’s a lot, I was just browsing it. A lot of UConn envy too

 

[John]

Go on the Syracuse message board and see how many posters wish syracuse was in the big east

it's nowhere near unanimous, they have the same debates there that we do here.

 

[uchusky32]

I would love UConn to be a part of that.

Big conference championship game. 2 conference tournaments with the winner of the South playing the winner of the North. That would be a final four match up.

 

[Husky25]

I hear you, but I’m pretty confident that whatever the value is of the increased presence of winning a national championship is, it’s not worth $30 million.

Personally, I reject the notion that Connecticut could win national championships in the ACC. None of the Big East schools that moved to the ACC were national champions, unless you’re willing to ignore that huge*beside Syracuse’s one Natty. Boston College sucked before they went to the ACC, they sucked afterwards. Except for a momentary burst, Pittsburgh hasn’t really been a basketball power. Syracuse is an utter train wreck, but that has more to do with Jim Boeheim, then their conference affiliation.

This is not entirely accurate, vis a vie Boston College.

BC was really good in the first few years of their ACC existence. They got to #2 in the Matty ICE years, but have been fair since, in not winning more than 7 games since 2010, with a 1-5 bowl record, but only 4 losing seasons.

IMO, BC should have been disqualified from conference realignment in 1996, but that aside, their downfall began when Gene DeFilippo got too big for his britches and made the ultimatum to Jeff Jagodzinski, who had the gall to interview with the Jets.

Don't let the fact that they could hardly ever beat UConn fool you on the basketball side. BC was very good in the 15 or so years leading up to the defection, including the Jared Dudley years that straddled the two conferences, but they haven't made the Tournament since 2009 and then fired the popular Al Skinner.

BC might have lost their identity, but the ACC doesn't need them to be good, and they don't need WEEI or The Sports Hub to cover college athletics. The ACC has a solid foothold in the 6th/7th largest media market, where Southern NE contributes to ACCN carriage fees whether it is watched or not.

 

[metsfan2323]

You people who think UCONN got back on track just because of the Big East are out of your mind. It's 80% Hurley 20% getting out of the AAC. If we hired Hurley and then joined the ACC or BiG we would still be cutting down the nets.

Go ask St John's about Big East magic, they haven't been relevant in 25 years. They will win now because of Pitino, which just proves it's all about the coaches.

 

[CL82]

Louisville had a national title before jumping to the ACC.

Did they the NCAA records don’t seem to indicate that?

 

[CL82]

This is not entirely accurate, vis a vie Boston College.

BC was really good in the first few years of their ACC existence. They got to #2 in the Matty ICE years, but have been fair since, in not winning more than 7 games since 2010, with a 1-5 bowl record, but only 4 losing seasons.

IMO, BC should have been disqualified from conference realignment in 1996, but that aside, their downfall began when Gene DeFilippo got too big for his britches and made the ultimatum to Jeff Jagodzinski, who had the gall to interview with the Jets.

Don't let the fact that they could hardly ever beat UConn fool you on the basketball side. BC was very good in the 15 or so years leading up to the defection, including the Jared Dudley years that straddled the two conferences, but they haven't made the Tournament since 2009 and then fired the popular Al Skinner.

BC might have lost their identity, but the ACC doesn't need them to be good, and they don't need WEEI or The Sports Hub to cover college athletics. The ACC has a solid foothold in the 6th/7th largest media market, where Southern NE contributes to ACCN carriage fees whether it is watched or not.

Fair, I’m pretty sure they won at least one ACC championship, too, which would lead to the conclusion that conference affiliation isn’t, what did them in.

 

[Sole]

There was a excitement during the big East season and into the big east tournament that I don’t see happening in any other conference…the only argument that makes any sense is with our football team and money

 

[Husky25]

Fair, I’m pretty sure they won at least one ACC championship, too, which would lead to the conclusion that conference affiliation isn’t, what did them in.

Not directly. I think they got their money, and made a conscious decision to...not necessarily to de-emphasize. They aren't UHa, but...not promote athletics. Exhibit 1 is their facilities, or lack thereof.

 

[noeynox]

Go on the Syracuse message board and see how many posters wish syracuse was in the big east

Posters does not equal administrators. Also you'll find plenty of level headed posters that realize the ACC isn't why they suck. It was letting Boeheim stick around too long and letting his kids be focal point of the teams. They probably will have to go through multiple coaches to get it right, but they will likely find the next guy.

 

[John]

Posters does not equal administrators. Also you'll find plenty of level headed posters that realize the ACC isn't why they suck. It was letting Boeheim stick around too long and letting his kids be focal point of the teams. They probably will have to go through multiple coaches to get it right, but they will likely find the next guy.

and be able to afford buyouts for coaches they cut loose and lucrative contracts for new ones they're trying to entice.

 

[Husky25]

Will the next coach be able to recruit to Syracuse? Boeheim had cache by way of a 50 year history of being Boeeim. He could also fall back in one-dimensional players by hiding their defensive deficiencies in the zone. 3pt distance and offensive confidence has rendered the 2-3 zone obsolete as a full-time defensive base.

Syracuse built organic rivalries with UConn, GTown, and St. Johns and could use the conference, as Calhoun did. For as long as they've been associated, there really isn't a history, so to speak, with Pittsburgh or BC. No other program is within a day's drive. Also there was a lot of coaching turnover for the perrenial ACC powers all at once, and how much longer does Larranega or Hamilton have? oh yeah, facilities are outdated as well.

It'll be interesting to see how another coach recruits and rebuilds the program.

 

[noeynox]

Will the next coach be able to recruit to Syracuse? Boeheim had cache by way of a 50 year history of being Boeeim. He could also fall back in one-dimensional players by hiding their defensive deficiencies in the zone. 3pt distance and offensive confidence has rendered the 2-3 zone obsolete as a full-time defensive base.

Syracuse built organic rivalries with UConn, GTown, and St. Johns and could use the conference, as Calhoun did. For as long as they've been associated, there really isn't a history, so to speak, with Pittsburgh or BC. No other program is within a day's drive. Also there was a lot of coaching turnover for the perrenial ACC powers all at once, and how much longer does Larranega or Hamilton have? oh yeah, facilities are outdated as well.

It'll be interesting to see how another coach recruits and rebuilds the program.

I think it may take a while. I expect Autry to struggle. Almost all schools struggle to replace a legend. Even UConn, Ollie started like a house on fire but it was evident he wasn't up for the job recruiting wise as time went on.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Go on the Syracuse message board and see how many posters wish syracuse was in the big east

Yeah, but the thing is, schools in that conference that could legitimately land in the B1G or SEC aren't leaving the ACC as the cost to depart is too prohibitive, even with B1G or SEC money as the reward.

Message board comments lamenting a move that cannot be undone have no more value than someone here posting about the benefits if we were to join the B1G, or settle with joining the ACC or B-12.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Yeah, but the thing is, schools in that conference that could legitimately land in the B1G or SEC aren't leaving the ACC as the cost to depart is too prohibitive, even with B1G or SEC money as the reward.

Message board comments lamenting a move that cannot be undone have no more value than someone here posting about the benefits if we were to join the B1G, or settle with joining the ACC or B-12.

If enough schools collude by finding new landing spots, the ACC's GOR, which is the only thing holding the league together, goes bye bye. If there are at least eight schools of value from the ACC that can secure a spot in the B1G/SEC/Big XII that would do it, and the Big XII at least I think will take anyone.

 

[UConn Dan]

Why are we buying into the number 8?? ACC needs two-thirds to dissolve the conference, why would they only need 8 to dissolve the GOR? Why would ESPN sign off on that?

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If enough schools collude by finding new landing spots, the ACC's GOR, which is the only thing holding the league together, goes bye bye. If there are at least eight schools of value from the ACC that can secure a spot in the B1G/SEC/Big XII that would do it, and the Big XII at least I think will take anyone.

Is the B-12 a better home than the ACC? In terms of revenues I'm guessing it will be at best even and travel costs will increase noticeably.

The only schools that would legitimately benefit from a number of ACC schools departing for the B-12 would be the ACC members who will immediately end up in the SEC or B1G. Why would five or six schools make a lateral move just to benefit a couple current conference members who will almost immediately be well ahead of them in the food chain?

 

[dwalks93]

If we witnessed one thing in the old Big East it was schools were willing to sell out their conference mates and make sure they had an early spot in the lifeboat. It was a real world prisoner’s dilemma.

BC, Cuse and Pitt have already shown a ruthless and draconian approach to realignment. They have to know if they don’t jump before the ACC implodes they’ll be on the outside looking in. If they get offered a spot now they might bail.

Lots of posters suggested the top 8 ACC programs would need to agree to leave but what it was the top 4 and 4 of the bottom half?

Maybe the better question is would the Big12 be willing to take lesser properties now if it would lead to the immediate demise of the ACC? At that point perhaps schools like UVA, UNC, VT, Miami, etc…become available and have to join. The BIG and SEC will take who they want but the destruction of the ACC almost certainly insure the Big12 survives.

 

[Huskies86]

Question about the GOR. When Florida State signed over its media content to the ACC, it can only do that for FSU home games, is that right? If FSU left the ACC for the BIG10/SEC before the GOR ended, then FSU’s home games would still be owned by the ACC and broadcast on ESPN? Would FSU’s away game media then be owned by the BIG10/SEC? If so, why would ESPN still want to pay full price for what could be half of Florida States’ content? I am sure I am missing something so any help appreciated.

 

[gmc1055]

Moving from the Big East to the ACC causes teams to suck.
Moving from the Big East to the ACC has a positive correlation to sucking.
Either way, Fork that!
Seriously though, there is more than enough reason to be concerned and UCONN is in a very strong position.
UCONN has been in the news more than any other university these past few weeks. It would be interesting if someone could quantify the value of that media bonus to the University and to the state.

UCONN would still be able to recruit. They would have rivalries with Syracuse and Pitt and help those programs. NC and Duke already hate us, another rivalry. UCONN would thrive. Only downside is BE Tounament which is by far the best.

 

[gmc1055]

If the Big12 showed interest the ACC would offer just.like they did for Louisville.

 

[CL82]

And 14 of the last 28. 16 in total over that period.

 

[gmc1055]

If the Big12 showed interest the ACC would offer just.like they did for Louisville.

Pitt

 

[ZOOCONN]

Trying to quantify what would be “enough money” to justify a move to the big 12, I came up with this:

1) Best likely scenario for big east broadcast rate revenue in the new contract: $8M

2) Herbst said that by moving to the big east, we saved approximately $2 million a year in travel costs. Let’s assume that that would be the same as travel cost of the big 12, although it may be more.

3) Assuming the above points are correct a basketball only broadcast rights distribution in the big 12 of $10 million would be breakeven for any current Big East schools.

4) No school would move for breakeven, so the big 12 would have to be offering some significant amount above that to induce schools to move. Let’s assume that the lowest amount which would maybe make the move worthwhile is $12M. It may well need to be more than this.

5) Based upon Notre Dame’s deal with the ACC. The basketball only portion of a broadcast rates deal is worth no more than 20% of the whole.

6) In order to pay former big east conference schools $12 million as a basketball only, without diluting any schools existing shares, the big 12 would have to be earning $60 million per school in broadcast rights. It isn’t.

So, unless they find a media partner who is willing to pay the big east schools, more than fair market value, or unless the existing big 12 schools agree to take a reduced share to bring in the big east schools, the numbers don’t appear to work.

(It is possible, though that ESPN or fox might be willing to pay the top Big East schools a premium over FMV, because it will be cheaper than paying the entire conference 8 million per school.)

So that WV realignment guy on twitter has stated from his “source” that fox/ ESPN would be willing to pay the additional fee for select schools, UConn was included in that list, Washington, zona, and Utah were others I believe.

 

[Stinger92860]

So that WV realignment guy on twitter has stated from his “source” that fox/ ESPN would be willing to pay the additional fee for select schools, UConn was included in that list, Washington, zona, and Utah were others I believe.

If you mean the grown man who lives in his mothers basement in the woods of wva, then yes