At least one UCONN fan thinks we aren't a top 10 team next year. Thoughts?

[Icebear]

If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

You are ever the worry wart, have been for years. Butler had not played in games for well more than a year and is still coming back off of thumb surgery. There is plenty of time to continue rehab and build strength. Don't waste energy worrying about things that may never be. Same with Tuck if she decides to come back I like our front line and love the back court of Chong and Nurse who had two TOs in 55 minutes yesterday. Be thankful in what you have and let tomorrow worry about itself.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.

 

[Kmoney]

You folks have offered some very good arguments. I disagree with several. What is really great is that there are different solid opinions based on solid facts. No one has been rude or resorted to labeling posters. I can't think of one other sports board where this discussion would not have deteriorated into a fight and a locked thread. This place is special and I hope it stays that way.

 

[Harry Mangurian]

From the game thread:Agree? Disagree?

We would really need Morgan.

Top 10 - yes. Top 5 - likely by late in the season. NC - no.
We need at least a year to reload.

This will be the biggest step down since the DT was left as the only AA in her senior year (even she had a fleet center).
The problem will be that we will have plenty of superior players and at least one AA, but no DT.

The freshmen will be freshmen.

 

[Icebear]

I expect us to be in the FF.

Front Court- Butler, Collier, Williams, Irwin (Tuck)
Backcourt - Nurse, Chong, KLS, Ekmark, Lawler, Dangerfield, Bent
Wings - mix and match from the above

KLS is now shooting 34% on 3s which is better Mazzante ever scored at PSU and is excellent for a freshman anywhere. Her curve has only been ascending.

Nurse is a 33% even with a couple horrid nights.

Chong is at 41%

Upfront Butler and Collier are both about 55% shooting and Williams is at 63%.

Yes, we are losing a lot but we have great weapons that will only improve.

 

[HuskyNan]

I expect us to be in the FF.

Front Court- Butler, Collier, Williams, Irwin (Tuck)
Backcourt - Nurse, Chong, KLS, Ekmark, Lawler, Dangerfield, Bent
Wings - mix and match from the above

KLS is now shooting 34% on 3s which is better Mazzante ever scored at PSU and is excellent for a freshman anywhere. Her curve has only been ascending.

Nurse is a 33% even with a couple horrid nights.

Chong is at 41%

Upfront Butler and Collier are both about 55% shooting and Williams is at 63%.

Yes, we are losing a lot but we have great weapons that will only improve.

To add to the above stats:

Kia has 64 assists to 34 turnovers (1.9:1 A:TO), 34 steals
Lou has 52 assists, 29 turnovers (1.8:1 A:TO), 21 steals
Saniya has 23 assists, 10 turnovers (2.3:1 A:TO), 13 steals

As Geno likes to say, a team is as good as its guards and UConn has three good ones returning and one potential impact player coming in.

In looking at the stats, I was impressed to see Gabby is second on the team in steals with 46 (Mo has 60) and in rebounds at 6.1/game (Stewie has 8.2) in fewer minutes than the starters (19.3).
Napheesa is second in blocks with 33 (Stewie has 67) and fourth in steals (Mo 60, Gabby 46, Stewie 36 and Napheesa 35) and right after Gabby in rebounds (6.0) in fewer minutes than the starters (19.4).

The upside on Gabby and Napheesa (Phee? Pheese? do we know?) is huge and reduces my stress level greatly when pondering UConn's frontcourt in the coming years. Geno did quite well with a bunch of undersized, but versatile, post players years ago so he knows what he needs to do to counteract any size differentials.

 

[pinotbear]

If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.

While an individual talent obviously plays a role in a team's rotation, it's not the only factor. In Butler's case, besides her injury/rehab/loss of practice time, you have the following factors.

She's a front court player. This means that she's competing for playing time with the best player in WCBB, a nearly-AA quality senior/junior, and 3 immensely talented high school AAs. Not a lot of "room at the inn" there.
She's a front court player. This means that there are situations where certainly Chong, and perhaps Gabby make more sense in substitution rotation.
Individual game matchups - if the opposing team is playing small and quick, going bigger and slower is a trade-off, and not always a desirable one. Whether due to team development, player limitations, or just game management, much of the time when Nat is in, the team plays zone defense, rather than man-to-man. Often in the second half, Geno settles the team into a slower pace, eases the ball pressure, plays zone - all of these things tend to reduce possessions and scoring. This often means fewer of "everything" - points, boards, steals - which means lower stats per minute, and overall.
Long-term player development/team development - there are only a few things that Geno has expressed concern about this season, but 3-point shooting and 3-point defense are two of them. He may feel that he needs to devote PT to other players to work on these - although, with Butler's passing, you would think that her inside offensive presence could lead to some nice inside-outside passes for 3-pt shot opportunities.

Basically, if you're the ninth option in the rotation at UConn, it's not like being in the same spot at, say, Clemson. UConn is so deep and has so many options that a player can be brought around gradually - and, can still be immensely talented, WNBA-quality, but, not start, or just play +/- 20 minutes per game.

 

[cohenzone]

Haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if this repeats. The difference between this year and next is that it's conceivable that UConn won't be a clear favorite to win it all. I don't know that that's the worst you can say about any other program losing players the character of our seniors. (We haven't closed the book on this season yet.) But it's been a long time since UConn has not been in the championship discussion. Next year will be no different. Teams outside the top 10 are not in the discussion. UConn will be inside the top 10 Tuck or not.

 

[Geno-ista]

This is a great thread as Kibitzer's and many have stated. It's also a painful one. For everyone that complains about blow outs- next year is your time - imho. I'm embracing it! But we are losing a ton. I think to get to the FF next yr would be a huge accomplishment- not without nail biters in the regionals and semi's if we got that far. W out Tuck, they all are going to have to grow up, as Geno would say, really really quickly.
Lots of talent, lots of fun, lots of youth. I'm not sold on Butler as a big time post. I would be much more optimistic if Boykin had been able to find her way here. Not dis similar to the year we lost Walker mid year. I'm not questioning our staff for the reasons that they had to leave. But IMO our NC hopes ended w the loss of Walker. We were too thin, no post back up. And the Boykin loss is huge re the chemistry the three of them had winning intl 3 vs 3 Tmt! - w Boykin being the 4/grinder. Chong is going to have to become a presence on defense next year. I'll bet he plays Dangerfield like a starter, hoping she gets it enough by tournament time. I think she's the only other impact player coming in next year. It's gonna be different!!!

 

[vballcoach]

My sense is that one of the reasons Butler isn't in the mix this year is that the game she plays isn't the game UCONN is playing this season on defense. Why can nobody figure out what to do against the Huskies? Because they switch on EVERYTHING, and except for the couple of times this season that Jefferson (or Chong) has wound up isolated down low against someone who's a foot taller, everyone is so interchangeable that it turns out to smother the other team. UCONN gets all of the benefits of the switches without paying the price. The only player who really can't do this is Natalie, at least not yet.

 

[Waquoit]

Collier and KLS will be much better this time next year than they are now. That's really good. If the newbie's can give them anything, UConn will be right back in the hunt.

 

[TheGOAT23]

IMO, UConn will be a top 10 team next season. If you look at the current top 5 teams, they will also lose key contributors to graduation. S.C. will lose three starters/ball handlers (Mitchell, Sessions & Roy), Baylor will lose Niya(at least) its all time assist leader/ floor general, N.D. will lose two of their best three point shooters(Mabrey 1.0 & Cable) with the latter being their most consistent player. Maryland will lose four long distance shooters. I don't think that those teams will skip a beat with the "young'ns" that they are bringing in next season and I don't think that UConn will, either.

 

[Geno-ista]

My sense is that one of the reasons Butler isn't in the mix this year is that the game she plays isn't the game UCONN is playing this season on defense. Why can nobody figure out what to do against the Huskies? Because they switch on EVERYTHING, and except for the couple of times this season that Jefferson (or Chong) has wound up isolated down low against someone who's a foot taller, everyone is so interchangeable that it turns out to smother the other team. UCONN gets all of the benefits of the switches without paying the price. The only player who really can't do this is Natalie, at least not yet.

Wow- that is a great observation!!! Nailed it

 

[Geno-ista]

Bottom line- no one can lose as much as we're losing- because no one has as much to lose as we do. Next year we're very very mortal. And if we lose tuck-veteran leadership may be as big as the talent loss. Real calming influences out there. Nurse and/or Gabby will have to grab the torch- my guess is Nurse as she'll be running the team next year. And she has all the qualities to be a great floor general and leader.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Collier and KLS will be much better this time next year than they are now. That's really good. If the newbie's can give them anything, UConn will be right back in the hunt.

Crystal Dangerfield will be a difference maker, starting early on.

 

[chrissaran]

Without Morgan it will be much more difficult to win the championship. Many teams have agreed to play UConn next year because Breanna and Moriah are graduating. They will suffer a few losses. However, a lineup of Kia, Gabby, Katie Lou, Napheesa, Natalie, Saniya, Kyla, Crystal, Molly and Courtney will certainly be near the top. Remember there will be a lot of improvement by Katie Lou and Napheesa during their sophomore seasons. Look how much Gabby has improved. Also, without Morgan, Natalie will start or they will be an extremely small lineup.

 

[hoophuskee]

If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.

1-- If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing? Because UCONN is THAT good and right now they have the best pf/c in the game and she takes away minutes.

2--- In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size... In an "ideal world?" In an ideal world Butler wouldn't have been hurt for as long as she was. Nurse wouldn't have went into a slump. KLS and Collier would be more consistent. Tuck wouldn't have been hurt. Gabby would be able to dominate more vs the bigger teams. Anyway, as I said before imo some posters such as yourself are more into posts and fear us getting beat by posts (I was right about my other questions to you in regards to USC last year, Maryland this year and Team USA, wasn't I?). I am more concerned with the wing - as stated I thought Strother would have been much much greater. So I admit I like wings/ pushing pace/ guards that force action. I am more concerned that UCONN will throw up bricks and not able to get the ball inside because they can't shoot well to open things up. Thus your statement of "1st off the bench" is a wrong way to look at it to me.

3-- Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa . . . I don't think anyone knows this. Suppose he puts Butler in Monday night ahead of Collier? Does this mean in big games he has more confidence now in Butler? Do you know for certain he won't put Butler in ahead of Collier in this game? Well what about when we play Notre Dame - and they go small? Wouldn't Collier be more able to defend their wings better? Do you think the competition we've faced in the AAC is more similar to potential small ball of Notre Dame or the power of South Carolina? If most of our completion in the AAC is vs small ball like a team like Notre Dame - then why would a player who has been hurt and missed as much time in games as Butler has get more minutes than Collier for example who was a dominant H/S All-American in high school and Geno may feel (which I'm sure many on here do as well) that she has much more of an upside? Or is it - as I said before - YOU FEEL (as well as some others) - that because of Butler's size she has more of the upside? I'll state again I am more concerned with guard/wing play more than size. IMO this game coming up vs USC that it comes down to our shooting, not their posts. I want our Huskies to get out and run. USC's offense will only pour in so many points. Our offense imo is much more explosive.

4-- Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today. So all the talk we have heard last year from Geno that Stewie couldn't score against her in the post, you think Geno was blowing smoke? If he was, and she is as bad as you say, then why not give KLS, NC and GW more minutes? Butler is averaging 15.4 minutes, - if you give her 30 minutes - she'd be averaging 13.5 points and 10 rebounds and with her skill of shooting - you can't see how in another year when maybe she doesn't miss as much early that she can be at least serviceable? She is NOT playing again pros this year or next.

IMO you aren't giving ANY leeway that our players will improve- specifically her. You've seen her do well in 4 of last 7 games vs Temple, UCF, Tulsa and Memphis in which she has shown she can shoot well, she has shown to be an okay passer and she is not super slow. You think she is just going to remain stagnant? And as far as substitution- which positions in the lineup do you think overall have been our weakest? I get the feeling you think it is the post? IMO it is the wing. I think we are best running the basketball. So why would you want to give Butler more minutes by going away from what you do best? Can't players like Collier and Williams also learn how to play halfcourt basketball while UCONN ALSO tries to run a lot? If our team is better running the basketball why "punish" (reduce their minutes) Gabby/Collier/Nurse/KLS by using Butler when the combination of these other kids makes the team overall better because we want to run? Because you prefer and are always more concerned of post play, right?

 

[trb123]

There is nothing wrong about tempering expectations. I am mentally prepared for a 28-8 season next year. It will also stop our rivals from crowing on these pages.
I will be very happy if we do better than 28-8.

 

[hoophuskee]

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.

I missed this before when I responded. This year is the same as last year. It comes down to "style" of play that makes you/everyone worry the most. IMO someone like Rebecca Lobo looks at the game too much from a post perspective. You are doing the same. We can agree to disagree. I wish I can tell you like icebear - "don't worry as much about post play" but as I recall from a movie I liked a similar response would be "That's like telling water not to be wet."

Offensive rebounding is brutally hard over the course of a game. Plus for many offensive rebounds you get you are also going to get called for pushing and going over the back. This game will be won by UCONN's ability or inability to shoot the basketball. USC will get offensive rebounds. But can they stop UCONN from shooting well? I would like to know why you think UCONN could lose if they shoot well? If they shoot well they will knock down a lot of 3's. That will beat offensive rebounding anytime.

Jefferson is the game's best pg, right? What does it mean by being the best pg to you? She is being compared here to Sue Bird. What does that mean to you?

Stewie is being compared to all-time great huskies. Possibly the greatest ever palyer ever beyond UCONN Huskies. You think offensive rebounds from South Carolina is more important in this game than how USC can defend arguably the greatesr player in UCONN history or ever along with arguably the greatest pg in UCONN history?

No doubt Wilson will guard Stewie. If the floor is open how can Coates or White guard Tuck? If the floor isn't open it means we aren't shooting well, right?

You also did say Team USA was going to struggle mightily vs some of the International Teams didn't you?
You also did say that the next time UCONN plays Maryland they need to play near perfect unless someone like Butler can guard their center, didn't you?

 

[hoophuskee]

There is nothing wrong about tempering expectations. I am mentally prepared for a 28-8 season next year. It will also stop our rivals from crowing on these pages.
I will be very happy if we do better than 28-8.

And there is nothing wrong with a differing opinion thinking that a 28-8 record is crazy/lunacy, right?

 

[trb123]

And there is nothing wrong with a differing opinion thinking that a 28-8 record is crazy/lunacy, right?

1. I always err on the side of caution.
2. I have factored in (a) No Tuck; (b) 1 key player missing the season because of injuries
3. The last thing I want is the Lady Vols fans enjoying schadenfreude.
4. Mental preparation does not mean we will end up 28-8. At the moment this is the bottom I have set.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I doubt if I ever said Team USA would struggle MIGHTLY against some International Teams. I did say Team USA might have problems with Tall Physical teams which they did when they played Australia. Cambage was having a field day against USA Bigs in the 1st half. Australia led at the half. If I recall correctly Ashja was the player that stopped Cambage in the 2nd half. Team USA doesn't have physical bigs, they tend to rely of finesse to get their points. I'm hoping Nneka makes the team as she's a physical power forward who can bang with the physical post players other countries have.

Here's whats I said after the Maryland Game.

"Who Knows if Marylands plays a tougher schedule they win this game. Although the game was close UConn didn't panic when Maryland went on their mini runs to get the game close. Both teams answered the others run, UConn had them when they counted. Maryland is a good team and the match ups with Ohio State should be interesting."

I doubt I ever said UConn needs to play perfectly to beat Maryland again as I don't believe that. Did I say Natalie needs to be available to help on Briona Jones, possibly as Jones had a field day in the last game.

Natalie may be a great practice player, but so far her play has been inconsistent.


You also did say Team USA was going to struggle mightily vs some of the International Teams didn't you?
You also did say that the next time UCONN plays Maryland they need to play near perfect unless someone like Butler can guard their center, didn't you?[/QUOTE]

 

[EricLA]

Lots of great comments. I have enjoyed reading them. Most of the comments I agree with, several posters/comments I disagree with. I also agree with the poster who said the thread has been full of opinions, some differing, but all respectful (the "harshest" worded post I could find started with "I strongly disagree with you".

I'm sure I will be repeating some stuff but here's my $.02. On the whole Morgan Tuck thing, I will take a slightly different slant... To say you think she won't be back next year is like saying Crystal Dangerfield will decommit from UCONN to choose a school closer to home. Yeah, in a way it's THAT crazy to say that about Morgan. At NO POINT ever in this season, in any interview, has she said anything remotely close to "I won't be back next year and plan to graduate with Mo and Stewie". She's been asked it numerous times. EVERY time she's said her intention is to come back. I will go a step further and say it's a bit disrespectful to doubt and 2nd guess her at this point.

I fully acknowledge that she can change her mind and that circumstances, some of which we can't predict in the future (well maybe Carnac can), could cause her to change her mind. But at no point ever has she even hinted at leaving early. IMHO that should be enough for UCONN fans to take her at her word and debate the possibility of her leaving early IF it ever happens...

I believe it was Ice who listed who we had next year for guards/wings, and forwards/centers.

Backcourt - Chong, Nurse, Ekmark, Dangerfield, Bent
Wing-ish playes - Samuelson, Williams, Collier
Frontcourt - Tuck, Butler, Irwin

Way to early to start debating the starters but let's just assume for the moment that they will be Chong, Nurse, Williams, KLS and Tuck. Undersized in the front court, but bigger and stronger guards than most teams. Even with an undersized front court, aside from Baylor, who really is going to start 3 huge players all over 6'3" who would give us fits? In tight games, Geno likely would only bring Dangerfield, Butler and Collier off the bench. That's 1 guard, 1 forward, and 1 wing/forward (I think Collier works on expanding her game much like Gabby has done). I defy anyone to go over the roster of 3 other teams, never mind 5, who are better on paper. to say we won't be a top 10 team with or without Morgan is... something I disagree with...

Lastly I do want to acknowledge that the comment that "we aren't a top 10 team next year" came from the ECU game thread in the 4th quarter where the starters were lackluster and the bench was even worse. It's fair to point out that Butler had butter fingers and was a step slow. Chong looked confused on the court. Ekmark did some solid things, but she is what she is. Samuelson was pretty much a no show as a starter. BUT that is one game. I think we all can at least agree that Williams and Collier were really pretty good and we can hope that Samuelson and Collier have sophomore leaps when next year rolls around...

 

[Gus Mahler]

Borderline. I'll be surprised in a final 4 return.

VowelGuy: Good to hear from you. Hope you will post again soon.

 

[nd2tty]

There is nothing wrong about tempering expectations. I am mentally prepared for a 28-8 season next year. It will also stop our rivals from crowing on these pages.
I will be very happy if we do better than 28-8.

What are the 8 losses?

They lose in conference play? To USF without Courtney Williams?

They go 5-8 against DePaul, Chattanooga, @FSU, Ohio State, @LSU, @Nebraska, @Kansas State, Dayton, Maryland, Baylor, Texas (Mohegan Sun), @Notre Dame, South Carolina?

Nah. I think it might be possible (if Tuck leaves) if they were in the old Big East. However, even with the ridiculously difficult OOC schedule for 2016-2017, I find it hard to believe they go worse than 9-4 (maybe losses to @ND, MD, SC, Baylor?). Does USF get a win in the game in Tampa next year? Maybe, but they lose Williams and Jenkins...

I find it difficult to think they enter the NCAA tournament at any worse than 30-3/29-4.

 

[trb123]

What are the 8 losses?

They lose in conference play? To USF without Courtney Williams?

They go 5-8 against DePaul, Chattanooga, @FSU, Ohio State, @LSU, @Nebraska, @Kansas State, Dayton, Maryland, Baylor, Texas (Mohegan Sun), @Notre Dame, South Carolina?

Nah. I think it might be possible (if Tuck leaves) if they were in the old Big East. However, even with the ridiculously difficult OOC schedule for 2016-2017, I find it hard to believe they go worse than 9-4 (maybe losses to @ND, MD, SC, Baylor?). Does USF get a win in the game in Tampa next year? Maybe, but they lose Williams and Jenkins...

I find it difficult to think they enter the NCAA tournament at any worse than 30-3/29-4.

I am mentally prepared for a 28-8 season. I am not analyzing possible losses. Just making sure that I do not start yelling if there are losses.
That is my lower bound for next season.
John Thompson always put the Hoyas at 15 or lower in the coaches poll (circa 1983-86). No one asked him (or worked it out for himself) who 1-14 were.
Tempering expectations is a very good thing.