At least one UCONN fan thinks we aren't a top 10 team next year. Thoughts? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

At least one UCONN fan thinks we aren't a top 10 team next year. Thoughts?

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Kmoney said:
If Tuck returns, then UConn is a top 5 team. If she doesn't return, then they are a top 10 team. To rank them higher, I would have to know who is going to be the number one and two options on offense. it is easier to score when you are the fourth option and the defense is concentrating on three all Americans. To be a consistent offense, a UConn offense, you have to have two or three player who are a threat to score a lot of points. UConn is spoiled by having five of those types of players on the floor most of the time. My concern is, how will Gabby react when she draws the best defender or she is double teamed. How will KLS react when she face guarded on the three point line.
Gabby has really upgraded her game this year and there isn't anything to make me think she won't make the same leap next year. If all the other players make the same developmental improvements, then UConn will be a top 5 team with or without Tuck.
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I don't think UCONN is going to change its DNA next year an suddenly try and outscore teams. They will score plenty of points because 1) The Offensive system provides plenty of open shots 2) This team is filled with dynamic passer that will fuel that offense by providing timely open baskets. Championship contention for UCONN as is has for 2 decades will hinge on the teams ability to defend. The most dominant post player in college basketball in the last decade Brittney Griner did not dominate against UCONN because of that UCONN DNA. The current crop of post player Wilson, Coates Jones, Turner, Reimer will be taller and perhaps more skilled than UCONN post players but there is also a stran in the UCONN DNA that says we are not going to let one player beat or dominate us.
 
If Mogan stays we will be #1 no doubt
If Morgan leaves we will be in top #1-3 depending on how good others
 
Not Top 10 ?

TOTALLY RIDICULOUS

No other top 10 team loses players to graduation ?

Remaining UCONN players don't get better, but everybody else's do ?

UCONN's incoming class makes no impact, but other teams freshman do ?
 
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Suebird10fan said:
That's absurd.

I have no doubt we'll be top three even without Tuck, assuming we're healthy.

Every year BYers overrate the impact that the loss of a superstar (or two in this case) will have on a given program. ND, Baylor and Stanford have all held up way better than BYers projected in the face of losing superstars. Yes, the loss of Mo and Bre (and possibly Tuck) will have a really big impact. But the gap between UConn and the #11 team in the country is cavernous. Barring injuries you can absolutely count on another F4 appearance next year.
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It's waaaayyyy to early to even begin to contemplate life without Stewart and Jefferson (and maybe Tuck).
A thought.....I wonder if Geno had any idea in his wildest dreams the impact these 3 young ladies would have on his program, and WCBB when they committed to UConn? NOBODY saw UConn wining the next 3 (possibly 4) national championships when they arrived on campus 3 years ago.

As we lose players, so do the other top ranked teams. How good are they going to be after graduation?
The word on the street is that UConn is expected to lose some of it's dominance after this season, however that remains to be seen.

It's not hard to understand that it's almost impossible to replace the points, leadership, judgement and swag that UConn loses when the big three move on. It's difficult to replace all of that in 1 year.

It took them 2 years (freshman & sophomore) to reach the level of play they're at now. They were not as mature and seasoned the first two years as they were last year and today. Geno may not sign a trio as productive and dynamic as these 3, the remainder of his tenure. We'll see.

Teams that have been reluctant to put UConn on their OOC schedule before, may be willing to do so now.
How much immediate help should we expect from the incoming freshmen? My guess is in the beginning, not much.

They'll all got to go through that freshman learning curve before they begin to even have a clue of how to play within the fabric of the team, becoming consistent and productive. We won't know until 5-6 games into the season before we can make an intelligent assessment based on what our eyes tell us (the old "eye" test).

Somehow, Geno always seems to make it work. He knows what he's doing. He may have to dig real deep into his "bag of tricks" to pull off another final four appearance next year. Based on what we're losing tis year, and what's coming in,
Our bite may not be as ferocious as it has been in the recent past. I sure hope I'm wrong on this.
 
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UCONN projects to be a top 3-4 team next season simply due to talent and coaching even without Tuck. With Tuck, UCONN will be top 2 favorite.

Other top programs should be Notre Dame, South Carolina, Ohio State and Baylor. Notre Dame loses just Cable, brings in 2 top 10 players, Patberg and possibly Taya Reimer. South Carolina loses Dozier, Mitchell and Roy but bring in Davis and Gray. Lots of upside but lots of potential chemistry issues, and Mitchell is a huge loss in the backcourt with her toughness and leadership. OSU will be great with Mitchell and Mavunga transferring in. Baylor returns everyone but Niya Johnson. They are very intriguing with their slew of post options, Davis, Lauren Cox, and Alexis Jones who is their top player IMO. A year older and a great combination of youth and experience. They'll be outstanding.

Other teams will have good rosters, but those 4 and UCONN should be big favorites for the Final Four.
 
CocoHusky said:
I don't think UCONN is going to change its DNA next year an suddenly try and outscore teams. They will score plenty of points because 1) The Offensive system provides plenty of open shots 2) This team is filled with dynamic passer that will fuel that offense by providing timely open baskets. Championship contention for UCONN as is has for 2 decades will hinge on the teams ability to defend. The most dominant post player in college basketball in the last decade Brittney Griner did not dominate against UCONN because of that UCONN DNA. The current crop of post player Wilson, Coates Jones, Turner, Reimer will be taller and perhaps more skilled than UCONN post players but there is also a stran in the UCONN DNA that says we are not going to let one player beat or dominate us.
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The reason good teams get open shots is because there are players on the court that demand extra defensive attention. All that I am stating is that there are questions on who if anybody will demand that attention next year. There are plenty of teams that run good motion offenses, but none of them have a BS, Tuck, or MJ.

I don't think UConn wins games because of DNA. Every girl that plays basketball wants to win. There is no patent on that. In the late 1970s I was involved in a Bar fight on the Submarine base in Groton. An older gentleman grabbed me by the shoulder and told me "You don't want to fight that guy. Your idea of winning is punching him a few times and humiliating him. He's a Vietnam combat vet. His idea of winning may be cutting off your ears and wearing them around his neck until they rot and fall off. Do you really want to fight that guy?" Well UConn is "that guy". It's not a DNA thing. It's a I am willing to go further and dig deeper to secure a victory thing. UConns defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent .

As you can probably tell I have a problem with the word DNA when used in relation to basketball dynastys. That's the trap that UCLA men and Tennessee women fell into. They thought they were great because of the name on the jersey. Their tradition was enough to carry them to victories. They were wrong. They lost what made them great. I would love for UConn to NOT fall into the same trap.
 
Kmoney said:
The reason good teams get open shots is because there are players on the court that demand extra defensive attention. All that I am stating is that there are questions on who if anybody will demand that attention next year. There are plenty of teams that run good motion offenses, but none of them have a BS, Tuck, or MJ.

I don't think UConn wins games because of DNA. Every girl that plays basketball wants to win. There is no patent on that. In the late 1970s I was involved in a Bar fight on the Submarine base in Groton. An older gentleman grabbed me by the shoulder and told me "You don't want to fight that guy. Your idea of winning is punching him a few times and humiliating him. He's a Vietnam combat vet. His idea of winning may be cutting off your ears and wearing them around his neck until they rot and fall off. Do you really want to fight that guy?" Well UConn is "that guy". It's not a DNA thing. It's a I am willing to go further and dig deeper to secure a victory thing. UConns defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent .

As you can probably tell I have a problem with the word DNA when used in relation to basketball dynastys. That's the trap that UCLA men and Tennessee women fell into. They thought they were great because of the name on the jersey. Their tradition was enough to carry them to victories. They were wrong. They lost what made them great. I would love for UConn to NOT fall into the same trap.
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AMEN Kmoney!!
 
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Kmoney said:
The reason good teams get open shots is because there are players on the court that demand extra defensive attention. All that I am stating is that there are questions on who if anybody will demand that attention next year. There are plenty of teams that run good motion offenses, but none of them have a BS, Tuck, or MJ.

I don't think UConn wins games because of DNA. Every girl that plays basketball wants to win. There is no patent on that. In the late 1970s I was involved in a Bar fight on the Submarine base in Groton. An older gentleman grabbed me by the shoulder and told me "You don't want to fight that guy. Your idea of winning is punching him a few times and humiliating him. He's a Vietnam combat vet. His idea of winning may be cutting off your ears and wearing them around his neck until they rot and fall off. Do you really want to fight that guy?" Well UConn is "that guy". It's not a DNA thing. It's a I am willing to go further and dig deeper to secure a victory thing. UConns defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent .

As you can probably tell I have a problem with the word DNA when used in relation to basketball dynastys. That's the trap that UCLA men and Tennessee women fell into. They thought they were great because of the name on the jersey. Their tradition was enough to carry them to victories. They were wrong. They lost what made them great. I would love for UConn to NOT fall into the same trap.
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Use another word if you like but but we are talking about the exact same thing. Your description is perfect: " UCONNs defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent". This is what defines UCONN.
Of course BS, Tuck, or MJ certainly command more attention and would make any offense better but there is a certain fundamental design to the UCONN offense based primarily on spacing and ball movement that is unique to UCONN. Ever notice that with even the bench players and walkons in the game the shot attempts for UCONN are coming from the same places on the floor and after the same sequences of passes? That is by design not by accident and only closely approximated by very very few teams.
 
CocoHusky said:
Use another word if you like but but we are talking about the exact same thing. Your description is perfect: " UCONNs defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent". This is what defines UCONN.
Of course BS, Tuck, or MJ certainly command more attention and would make any offense better but there is a certain fundamental design to the UCONN offense based primarily on spacing and ball movement that is unique to UCONN. Ever notice that with even the bench players and walkons in the game the shot attempts for UCONN are coming from the same places on the floor and after the same sequences of passes? That is by design not by accident and only closely approximated by very very few teams.
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So right. Yet if we fans want another championship in the 4 years after Stewie the 2017 and 2018 recruiting classes are pivotal. If there's anything new on that front people please post on other threads.
 
CocoHusky said:
It has been a while Summer of 2015 since Morgan has been as definitive as to say she will return. Much has changed since the summer specifically her missing 4 games recently. The lastest can be found in this article:
http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn...men-memphis-notebook-0131-20160130-story.html
which includes this very thoughtful quote: "I think about it," Tuck said. "I know my professional career is going to be a lot shorter than I would want it to be. I thought I'd be able to play until my mid-30s. I do think about my longevity because my dream, since I was 14, has been to play in the WNBA. I'm trying to assess everything at my disposal, not just think about the present."

Good luck in pursuit of your dream Morgan, You have been and are a Joy.
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She also said it when she appeared with Geno on the Monday radio show this season, might have been 5 weeks ago-ish.
 
CocoHusky said:
Geno definitely knew!

" Auriemma said Wednesday night he believes the class puts UConn "back into the category where we can win a national championship," and said Stewart is as good a recruit as he's ever had at Connecticut."
Nov'2011
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Geno always knows. Never, ever doubt his knowledge.
 
Kmoney said:
The reason good teams get open shots is because there are players on the court that demand extra defensive attention. All that I am stating is that there are questions on who if anybody will demand that attention next year. There are plenty of teams that run good motion offenses, but none of them have a BS, Tuck, or MJ.

I don't think UConn wins games because of DNA. Every girl that plays basketball wants to win. There is no patent on that. In the late 1970s I was involved in a Bar fight on the Submarine base in Groton. An older gentleman grabbed me by the shoulder and told me "You don't want to fight that guy. Your idea of winning is punching him a few times and humiliating him. He's a Vietnam combat vet. His idea of winning may be cutting off your ears and wearing them around his neck until they rot and fall off. Do you really want to fight that guy?" Well UConn is "that guy". It's not a DNA thing. It's a I am willing to go further and dig deeper to secure a victory thing. UConns defense is a product of great coaching, great effort and great talent .

As you can probably tell I have a problem with the word DNA when used in relation to basketball dynastys. That's the trap that UCLA men and Tennessee women fell into. They thought they were great because of the name on the jersey. Their tradition was enough to carry them to victories. They were wrong. They lost what made them great. I would love for UConn to NOT fall into the same trap.
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Stopping being literal, DNA was used as a metaphor.

Those demanding attention next year are obvious. They don't get primary attention this year because there are others who have more experience and are bigger threats. Chong for one and Nurse will help spread the outside along with KLS whose shot will undoubtably settle in even more. Relax, you are over analyzing and worrying about shadows of things that will likely never be.
 
HardHatGuy#2 said:
Not really worth arguing, when no supporting data/information/assumptions have been provided. But just fer funsies...

Who is going to challenge next year? Baylor looks good, and if Louisville will grow up emotionally, they will be good as well. ND loses their primary offensive weapon, and as good as Turner is, she has not shown that she can handle that position (then again, neither had Cable until this year). South Carolina loses their backcourt; bigs are only as good as the people getting them the ball. Is Stanford ready to come back to the forefront? Will Tennessee suddenly see the Light?

We lose a bunch, but make some nice gains in the new class and still have a GREAT bunch of players with a LOT of experience. We're a Top 5 team without the newbies and Butler still re-learning the game. With them and a resurgent Butler, we're fighting for #1, but there is nothing unanimous about it.
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I can foresee a tough off season for us coming up.
 
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Sonny44 said:
I can foresee a tough off season for us coming up.
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Yes and I for one will be excitedly waiting for Charley Creme's first projection of the 64 teams and their exact seedings in next year's NCAA tournament.
 
If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.


hoophuskee said:
I disagree with everything you've said. IMO you're wrong. First off Butler has played well in other games not just in the one game you are singling her out thus you are exaggerating. Secondly - I think it wrong for you use the words "push around" as a general statement. Today - I thought she was out-quicked. Everything she did was like it was in slow motion.

By the way - we all make wrong make predictions (heck I always thought Ann Strother was going to be super great) - but weren't you one of the posters from last year that thought UCONN would be in the most trouble vs teams like South Carolina and Duke? Especially South Carolina because of the post play?

Also, weren't you the same poster that thought TEAM USA - the pros-- would get beat or have huge troubles internationally vs the other physical teams?

As I said about Strother- you can see I am more optimistic about players that can shoot and wings and guards. I value that over a strong post presence. I don't want to make it sound like there is only one way on thigns and we can all be wrong. So overall we can agree to disagree. IMO it seems you get more concerned over posts and physical play- I am more concerned over Muffett type teams where they have real good guard play. And this year going vs Maryland if we ever meet- I am more concerned over their 3 guard lineup than their center.
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Wbbfan1 said:
If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

You are ever the worry wart, have been for years. Butler had not played in games for well more than a year and is still coming back off of thumb surgery. There is plenty of time to continue rehab and build strength. Don't waste energy worrying about things that may never be. Same with Tuck if she decides to come back I like our front line and love the back court of Chong and Nurse who had two TOs in 55 minutes yesterday. Be thankful in what you have and let tomorrow worry about itself.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.
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You folks have offered some very good arguments. I disagree with several. What is really great is that there are different solid opinions based on solid facts. No one has been rude or resorted to labeling posters. I can't think of one other sports board where this discussion would not have deteriorated into a fight and a locked thread. This place is special and I hope it stays that way.
 
ericsandiego said:
From the game thread:Agree? Disagree?
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We would really need Morgan.

Top 10 - yes. Top 5 - likely by late in the season. NC - no.
We need at least a year to reload.

This will be the biggest step down since the DT was left as the only AA in her senior year (even she had a fleet center).
The problem will be that we will have plenty of superior players and at least one AA, but no DT.

The freshmen will be freshmen.
 
I expect us to be in the FF.

Front Court- Butler, Collier, Williams, Irwin (Tuck)
Backcourt - Nurse, Chong, KLS, Ekmark, Lawler, Dangerfield, Bent
Wings - mix and match from the above

KLS is now shooting 34% on 3s which is better Mazzante ever scored at PSU and is excellent for a freshman anywhere. Her curve has only been ascending.

Nurse is a 33% even with a couple horrid nights.

Chong is at 41%

Upfront Butler and Collier are both about 55% shooting and Williams is at 63%.

Yes, we are losing a lot but we have great weapons that will only improve.
 
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Icebear said:
I expect us to be in the FF.

Front Court- Butler, Collier, Williams, Irwin (Tuck)
Backcourt - Nurse, Chong, KLS, Ekmark, Lawler, Dangerfield, Bent
Wings - mix and match from the above

KLS is now shooting 34% on 3s which is better Mazzante ever scored at PSU and is excellent for a freshman anywhere. Her curve has only been ascending.

Nurse is a 33% even with a couple horrid nights.

Chong is at 41%

Upfront Butler and Collier are both about 55% shooting and Williams is at 63%.

Yes, we are losing a lot but we have great weapons that will only improve.
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To add to the above stats:

Kia has 64 assists to 34 turnovers (1.9:1 A:TO), 34 steals
Lou has 52 assists, 29 turnovers (1.8:1 A:TO), 21 steals
Saniya has 23 assists, 10 turnovers (2.3:1 A:TO), 13 steals

As Geno likes to say, a team is as good as its guards and UConn has three good ones returning and one potential impact player coming in.

In looking at the stats, I was impressed to see Gabby is second on the team in steals with 46 (Mo has 60) and in rebounds at 6.1/game (Stewie has 8.2) in fewer minutes than the starters (19.3).
Napheesa is second in blocks with 33 (Stewie has 67) and fourth in steals (Mo 60, Gabby 46, Stewie 36 and Napheesa 35) and right after Gabby in rebounds (6.0) in fewer minutes than the starters (19.4).

The upside on Gabby and Napheesa (Phee? Pheese? do we know?) is huge and reduces my stress level greatly when pondering UConn's frontcourt in the coming years. Geno did quite well with a bunch of undersized, but versatile, post players years ago so he knows what he needs to do to counteract any size differentials.
 
Wbbfan1 said:
If Butler was playing so well, why is she one of the last players off the bench when Geno starts subbing. In an ideal world, she would be the first off the bench when Geno wanted to sub for Morgan or Stewie due to her size which should provide rebounding and plug up the middle with her defense. Geno has more confidence with Gabby and Napheesa filling the role for Morgan and Stewie. Butler is 9th in average minutes played. Not saying that Butler is not capable of being the Starting Center next year, but she's not playing like she will be today.

Never thought Duke would give UConn problems, but did think So Carolina had the potential to cause the team problems due to their size. I still believe that with this years team because there's no Kiah Stokes available when Geno goes to a big lineup. So Carolina's rebounding and second chance points will go along way in determining who wins this game.
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While an individual talent obviously plays a role in a team's rotation, it's not the only factor. In Butler's case, besides her injury/rehab/loss of practice time, you have the following factors.

She's a front court player. This means that she's competing for playing time with the best player in WCBB, a nearly-AA quality senior/junior, and 3 immensely talented high school AAs. Not a lot of "room at the inn" there.
She's a front court player. This means that there are situations where certainly Chong, and perhaps Gabby make more sense in substitution rotation.
Individual game matchups - if the opposing team is playing small and quick, going bigger and slower is a trade-off, and not always a desirable one. Whether due to team development, player limitations, or just game management, much of the time when Nat is in, the team plays zone defense, rather than man-to-man. Often in the second half, Geno settles the team into a slower pace, eases the ball pressure, plays zone - all of these things tend to reduce possessions and scoring. This often means fewer of "everything" - points, boards, steals - which means lower stats per minute, and overall.
Long-term player development/team development - there are only a few things that Geno has expressed concern about this season, but 3-point shooting and 3-point defense are two of them. He may feel that he needs to devote PT to other players to work on these - although, with Butler's passing, you would think that her inside offensive presence could lead to some nice inside-outside passes for 3-pt shot opportunities.

Basically, if you're the ninth option in the rotation at UConn, it's not like being in the same spot at, say, Clemson. UConn is so deep and has so many options that a player can be brought around gradually - and, can still be immensely talented, WNBA-quality, but, not start, or just play +/- 20 minutes per game.
 
Haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if this repeats. The difference between this year and next is that it's conceivable that UConn won't be a clear favorite to win it all. I don't know that that's the worst you can say about any other program losing players the character of our seniors. (We haven't closed the book on this season yet.) But it's been a long time since UConn has not been in the championship discussion. Next year will be no different. Teams outside the top 10 are not in the discussion. UConn will be inside the top 10 Tuck or not.
 
This is a great thread as Kibitzer's and many have stated. It's also a painful one. For everyone that complains about blow outs- next year is your time - imho. I'm embracing it! But we are losing a ton. I think to get to the FF next yr would be a huge accomplishment- not without nail biters in the regionals and semi's if we got that far. W out Tuck, they all are going to have to grow up, as Geno would say, really really quickly.
Lots of talent, lots of fun, lots of youth. I'm not sold on Butler as a big time post. I would be much more optimistic if Boykin had been able to find her way here. Not dis similar to the year we lost Walker mid year. I'm not questioning our staff for the reasons that they had to leave. But IMO our NC hopes ended w the loss of Walker. We were too thin, no post back up. And the Boykin loss is huge re the chemistry the three of them had winning intl 3 vs 3 Tmt! - w Boykin being the 4/grinder. Chong is going to have to become a presence on defense next year. I'll bet he plays Dangerfield like a starter, hoping she gets it enough by tournament time. I think she's the only other impact player coming in next year. It's gonna be different!!! :)
 
My sense is that one of the reasons Butler isn't in the mix this year is that the game she plays isn't the game UCONN is playing this season on defense. Why can nobody figure out what to do against the Huskies? Because they switch on EVERYTHING, and except for the couple of times this season that Jefferson (or Chong) has wound up isolated down low against someone who's a foot taller, everyone is so interchangeable that it turns out to smother the other team. UCONN gets all of the benefits of the switches without paying the price. The only player who really can't do this is Natalie, at least not yet.
 
Collier and KLS will be much better this time next year than they are now. That's really good. If the newbie's can give them anything, UConn will be right back in the hunt.
 
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