I don't think one person believes there is a guarantee about anything. That's life. Things can turn around next year or never. Those are the extremes. KO can be a bad coach who the APR disguised or a good coach hurt by the APR. I'm one of those who argue the latter. I can't be 100% sure I'm right and you're wrong or vice versa. I hear the complaints of people after games. I understand their concerns. I just put in my computer parameters that are different than yours. Or maybe similar parameters but come to different conclusions. None of us can see the future so it really comes down to educated guessing.
Of course it's possible that if KO doesn't work out UConn can attract a great coach. And it's possible that a coach replacing KO, should UConn need to make that choice, can make the program worse. How can anyone know things with certainty? If that were the case why hasn't Texas, a university that is far ahead of all other universities when it comes to athletic resources, struggle as much as it does?