AP Poll - Week 4 | Page 4 | The Boneyard

AP Poll - Week 4

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Huge jump. That doesn't happen too often. Huge drop for both UNC and Duke. That doesn't happen too often either.
 
hey adrien is right. this 'feast week' stuff really is energizing for fans of hoops to get the juices flowing. whatever ur attitude aboot ur team, ur league, or ur interest in the sport for the upcoming season is before the week, just a flip over to a game while commercials are running on watching the latest version of the godfather movie (really, really good one last week) will get the spark lit. noice.
there really are a lot of bad brand name teams this year. really bad.
expect upsets. wide open, why not us?
 
REB1094 said:
Really good to have two ranked wins already. We all will be Iowa St and Alabama fans the rest of the season. We’ll only get 2 more ranked games the rest of the year.

Also - UConn is officially elite. The expectation moving forward is that we should be a BE powerhouse. The only teams that should be able to hang with us are Creighton (would target to split the series), Xavier (but we should win both), and maybe Nova once they’re healthy (big question marks on Nova this year)

I’m talking 16-4 conference record as an absolute worst case scenario

I’m excited.
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KenPom has an odd way of predicting future outcomes. For example, they predict (it changes daily) that we will finish 27-4 overall and 16-4 in the BE. Yet you look at the individual game predictions and they have us losing just one game for the remainder of the regular season -- at Creighton on Feb 11 -- but the overall prediction isn't 30-1.

I suppose I would understand it better if I did a deeper dive into his methods . . . but I'm too lazy. :rolleyes:
 
Anybody know if Oregon has a chance to put together a streak and get back into the top 25 when they’re fully healthy?

I don’t know much about them other than they were ranked to start the year and then lost a buy game.

The quadrant system uses rankings at the end of the year and not rankings at the time of the game, so would love for them to improve as the season goes on :)
 
SoFla Steve said:
KenPom has an odd way of predicting future outcomes. For example, they predict (it changes daily) that we will finish 27-4 overall and 16-4 in the BE. Yet you look at the individual game predictions and they have us losing just one game for the remainder of the regular season -- at Creighton on Feb 11 -- but the overall prediction isn't 30-1.

I suppose I would understand it better if I did a deeper dive into his methods . . . but I'm too lazy. :rolleyes:
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It's just Probability 101. If Outcome A has a 51% chance of occurring per iteration, what are the odds that Outcome A will happen every time over 100 iterations? Close to zero, right? Even though Outcome A is favored every time. That's an extreme example to illustrate what's going on inside KenPom.
 
REB1094 said:
Really good to have two ranked wins already. We all will be Iowa St and Alabama fans the rest of the season. We’ll only get 2 more ranked games the rest of the year.

Also - UConn is officially elite. The expectation moving forward is that we should be a BE powerhouse. The only teams that should be able to hang with us are Creighton (would target to split the series), Xavier (but we should win both), and maybe Nova once they’re healthy (big question marks on Nova this year)

I’m talking 16-4 conference record as an absolute worst case scenario

I’m excited.
Expand ...
I would like to think that one of saint johns or xavier or seton hall or marquette will figure it out and get into the low end of the rankings this year
 
REB1094 said:
Anybody know if Oregon has a chance to put together a streak and get back into the top 25 when they’re fully healthy?

I don’t know much about them other than they were ranked to start the year and then lost a buy game.

The quadrant system uses rankings at the end of the year and not rankings at the time of the game, so would love for them to improve as the season goes on :)
Expand ...
Oregon typically starts slow and they have a few injuries. To be a Quad 1 win, they need to be top 50 in the NET since it was a neutral site. They can certainly do it, but right now they're projected to go 18-13 per Kenpom - I think they would have to win at a higher clip to be top 50.
 
Get a Job said:
It's just Probability 101. If Outcome A has a 51% chance of occurring per iteration, what are the odds that Outcome A will happen every time over 100 iterations? Close to zero, right? Even though Outcome A is favored every time. That's an extreme example to illustrate what's going on inside KenPom.
Expand ...
en.wikipedia.org

Binomial distribution - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

You're welcome.
 
Beating the teams ranked 11th and 23rd by 15+ and only being ranked 8th doesn’t sit right with me.
 
REB1094 said:
Anybody know if Oregon has a chance to put together a streak and get back into the top 25 when they’re fully healthy?

I don’t know much about them other than they were ranked to start the year and then lost a buy game.

The quadrant system uses rankings at the end of the year and not rankings at the time of the game, so would love for them to improve as the season goes on :)
Expand ...
They have opps against UCLA, ASU and Arizona to pickup marquee conference wins. Those may be their best chance to crack the top 25 again and improve their NET for Quadrant rating purposes.
 
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