Andy Katz Final Four Picks

[Wbbfan1]

 

[JordyG]

Short but sweet. As for me however, Texas A and M has much to prove, returning starters or not.

 

[meyers7]

Short but sweet. As for me however, Texas A and M has much to prove, returning starters or not.

Agree, not sure what people are seeing in Texas A&M.

Hmmm Stanford, Texas A&M, UCONN, Oregon. No Baylor??

Best part....no TN.

 

[TheFarmFan]

TBH, I feel like Baylor has at least as much talent "waiting in the wings" to become starters for the first time this season as Stanford does, and I think our loss of Alanna Smith is as at least as significant as Baylor's loss of Kalani Brown. So it's really just a question of how much was lost from Chloe Jackson. But Baylor has likely A-A Lauren Cox, and I don't see Stanford with anyone comparable this season. So I'm skeptical that Stanford is a sure bet for the final four, and even more skeptical that Baylor shouldn't be.

And either way, yeah, Texas A&M is one of those believe when I see it cases. I feel like the whole is often less than the sum of its parts.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Whose Andy Katz?

 

[EricLA]

Whose Andy Katz?

Certainly not mine!

 

[oldude]

While Baylor would be one of my FF picks, I don’t view the Lady Bears as a sure thing. The loss of Brown and Jackson means that Baylor will be a much different team this season, even with all the talent they possess.

No more twin towers, and all those wide open short jumpers and easy layups that were the result. Cox moves down to the low post, where she will now be the focus of opposing defenders. Baylor has a great group of athletes, but can they consistently make contested outside shots?

Finally, will Cooper be a net positive or negative to Baylor’s team chemistry?

 

[SECbbfan24]

I would take Baylor over A&M for a final four every day. A&M has a good team but not sold on final type team. Carter has to be more of a team player than individualized basketball for that to happen.

Oregon and Baylor are my picks as of right now to get to a final four. Its hard to predict as matchups play a big role in how far teams go in the NCAAT.

 

[Vowelguy]

Keep in mind that some folks may have a "top 4" but figure that one of them won't make it ... since upsets do happen. And then they pick a wildcard -- someone from the next tier who they think could make a run.

I will note that last year's BoneYard rankings had Oregon #6. (ND-Bay-UConn were top 3).

 

[Alydar]

TBH, I feel like Baylor has at least as much talent "waiting in the wings" to become starters for the first time this season as Stanford does, and I think our loss of Alanna Smith is as at least as significant as Baylor's loss of Kalani Brown. So it's really just a question of how much was lost from Chloe Jackson. But Baylor has likely A-A Lauren Cox, and I don't see Stanford with anyone comparable this season. So I'm skeptical that Stanford is a sure bet for the final four, and even more skeptical that Baylor shouldn't be.

And either way, yeah, Texas A&M is one of those believe when I see it cases. I feel like the whole is often less than the sum of its parts.

The last time Baylor won a title they got eliminated in the S16 the next year .... despite bringing back a team that went undefeated the year before. Like the stock salesmen, the past is no guarantee of future performance.

Tara has hit a sort of tipping point as far as talent and you have to include her in the FF. Having the best team during the season? Dubious, but Tara is a huge asset in the NCAA's, especially in games 3 & 5. Give her 6 days and Tara will devise a way to beat the devil.

 

[bballnut90]

While Baylor would be one of my FF picks, I don’t view the Lady Bears as a sure thing. The loss of Brown and Jackson means that Baylor will be a much different team this season, even with all the talent they possess.

No more twin towers, and all those wide open short jumpers and easy layups that were the result. Cox moves down to the low post, where she will now be the focus of opposing defenders. Baylor has a great group of athletes, but can they consistently make contested outside shots?

Finally, will Cooper be a net positive or negative to Baylor’s team chemistry?

Still have Egbo and Smith who will take on larger roles. Neither is as big as Kalani but Smith should pair very well alongside Cox. She was outstanding as a freshman. Egbo is a long and athletic 6-3 who provides good backup in the post. Also look for Decosta to get a lot more playing time at the 3/4 spots. Most importantly, they have Cox back who defensively plays bigger than anyone else in the nation.

The biggest issue for them is incorporating Te'a Cooper. She hasnt shown point guard ability or decision making skills and is now taking over for Mulkey which I think could be a net negative. Landrum is an underrated 2 and Richards is a stellar defender on the wing so the perimeter is going to be strong without Jackson. Just all hinges on Cooper IMO.

 

[Reypl21]

It doesn't matter if Cox plays the 4 or the 5, she's going to stick mainly at the high post. Her passing, decent mid-range ability, and the speed to blow past 5s is beneficial there. Her front court mates are going to be Egbo and Smith. They can slash and score in the low post. Now that Cox is the 5, she's going to be bringing the other teams 5 out of the paint. Last year, the other 5 had to be glued to Brown.

 

[oldude]

Still have Egbo and Smith who will take on larger roles. Neither is as big as Kalani but Smith should pair very well alongside Cox. She was outstanding as a freshman. Egbo is a long and athletic 6-3 who provides good backup in the post. Also look for Decosta to get a lot more playing time at the 3/4 spots. Most importantly, they have Cox back who defensively plays bigger than anyone else in the nation.

The biggest issue for them is incorporating Te'a Cooper. She hasnt shown point guard ability or decision making skills and is now taking over for Mulkey which I think could be a net negative. Landrum is an underrated 2 and Richards is a stellar defender on the wing so the perimeter is going to be strong without Jackson. Just all hinges on Cooper IMO.

When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whomever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Tara has hit a sort of tipping point as far as talent and you have to include her in the FF. Having the best team during the season? Dubious, but Tara is a huge asset in the NCAA's, especially in games 3 & 5. Give her 6 days and Tara will devise a way to beat the devil.

Nothing better than being a Stanford fan getting a lecture from a non-Stanford fan about the virtues of Tara and the dangers of underestimating her when she has proper time to scout and plan. I'll take it everyday and twice on Sunday!! =)

 

[bballnut90]

When I watched Baylor last year, Brown was such a force in the low post that she often commanded a double team. That left Cox with a mismatch on whomever was trying to guard her. The two Baylor Bigs put so much pressure on opposing teams that everyone else was free to take wide open mid-range jump shots or sneak in all alone on the weak side for easy layups or uncontested rebounds and putbacks. Amazingly, Baylor won the National Championship without making a single 3-pt shot.

I’m not minimizing the talent of Egbo, Smith and the rest of Baylor’s roster, but Kim will have to spread the floor some and find at least a little 3-pt shooting if the Lady Bears have any chance of repeating this year.

Agree on spreading the floor more. Baylor will look very different without Brown inside, but they do have a stellar shooter in Landrum back, plus Cooper should be an upgrade from Jackson in the 3pt shooting department even if she is a downgrade in most other areas.

 

[Carnac]

I don't take any stock in preseason polls, especially final four polls. April is 7 months away. Many things can happen in 7 months, most notably injuries to key players. It’s hard to pick FF teams right after the brackets have been announced, let alone 7 months out.

If Baylor is sent out west, and Oregon and Stanford are there also, would you still pick them to come out of that regional? Baylor being a #1 seed is not a given or should be taken for granted. UConn was a #2 seed last year remember? Crap happens. And sometimes it happens to you (your team).

We'll all have a better idea of who the contenders and the pretenders are after the first month of the season. Just before the holiday break.

That time frame should produce enough games for us to form an intelligent opinion on who’s trending towards a FF in April, and who’s not. The contenders will begin to break away and rise to the top of the national standings, while pretenders begin their slide.

 

[DeeHusky]

I think Baylor could be an even better team. I think their offense may be a little better, execution wise because the lane won’t be clogged. Cox is going to be the Big 12 POY and DPOY. They have a shut down defender in Didi Richards and if she can up her offensive game look out. They have a shooter in Juicy Landrum. NaLyssa Smith is a breakout player waiting to happen, she fouled out in the title game if she works on her defensive game I think she can be an all Big 12 performer. I’m not sold on Te’a Cooper being that much of a help, but they played without a true point last year. Now all of that with the excellent bench players they have. They are definitely a final four squad imo. I believe this because they choked for a few years in the Elite Eight and they finally got over the hump this past year.

 

[jonson]

TBH, I feel like Baylor has at least as much talent "waiting in the wings" to become starters for the first time this season as Stanford does, and I think our loss of Alanna Smith is as at least as significant as Baylor's loss of Kalani Brown. So it's really just a question of how much was lost from Chloe Jackson. But Baylor has likely A-A Lauren Cox, and I don't see Stanford with anyone comparable this season. So I'm skeptical that Stanford is a sure bet for the final four, and even more skeptical that Baylor shouldn't be.

And either way, yeah, Texas A&M is one of those believe when I see it cases. I feel like the whole is often less than the sum of its parts.

I continue to find it a bit puzzling that so many pundits and fans seem to minimize the potential impact of Smith's absence on this year's Stanford team. Surely, the major focus for most teams last year was limiting her as much as possible, and much like Brown's presence noted below, that had to have made things a lot easier for her teammates. Maybe the returning players and/or newbees and/or Tara's coaching will more than account for that, but it's not a slam dunk imo.

 

[Bigboote]

I don't see Texas A&M Starring Chennedy Carter with a bunch of extras going anywhere. Until Gary Blair remembers what got him a national championship and coaches his team to play that way, they're not going deep into the postseason.

Yes, Baylor lost a couple of really good players, but as others have pointed out, they have some good ones on deck. Smith is gonna be really good, and I can see Cox and Smith being a really effective combination. I don't like Baylor, but I love a great defender, so it's tough for me to root against Cox.

 

[Reypl21]

I don't see Texas A&M Starring Chennedy Carter with a bunch of extras going anywhere. Until Gary Blair remembers what got him a national championship and coaches his team to play that way, they're not going deep into the postseason.

Yes, Baylor lost a couple of really good players, but as others have pointed out, they have some good ones on deck. Smith is gonna be really good, and I can see Cox and Smith being a really effective combination. I don't like Baylor, but I love a great defender, so it's tough for me to root against Cox.

I can see A&M making it to the E8 next year. The past two seasons they have been eliminated by ND in the sweet sixteen, and they gave them a run for their money both years. Carter is the star factor that not many teams have. She can will her team to win. All the players that didn't want to be apart of the Carter show left after her first year. Their second year was better, and their third year should be better.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Agree, not sure what people are seeing in Texas A&M.

Hmmm Stanford, Texas A&M, UCONN, Oregon. No Baylor??

Best part....no TN.

UConn in the final four!!?? How is that even possible? Everybody knows we're the only 9th best team this season.

 

[Carnac]

I think Baylor could be an even better team. I think their offense may be a little better, execution wise because the lane won’t be clogged. Cox is going to be the Big 12 POY and DPOY. They have a shut down defender in Didi Richards and if she can up her offensive game look out. They have a shooter in Juicy Landrum. NaLyssa Smith is a breakout player waiting to happen, she fouled out in the title game if she works on her defensive game I think she can be an all Big 12 performer. I’m not sold on Te’a Cooper being that much of a help, but they played without a true point last year. Now all of that with the excellent bench players they have. They are definitely a final four squad imo. I believe this because they choked for a few years in the Elite Eight and they finally got over the hump this past year.

Agreed, those elite 8 games were their Waterloo for several years. As Geno always says: “the hardest game of the tournament is the regional final”. Those nasty dark horses always pop up, and you never see them coming. Remember Oregon and Washington two years ago? Knocking off #1 seeds on their way to the finals.

Then there’s Stanford. They’re habitual party crashers. They should never be over looked. They’ve sent some #1 seeds home the last few years. Nothing is guaranteed once the tournament begins. No team can be taken for granted. One game at a time. Survive and advance.

Most teams that survive the first weekend can send you home during the second weekend, especially if they’re hot, on a roll, and catch you at a bad time. That’s why your bracket is usually blown up after the 3rd round. That’s also why March madness is nirvana to basketball fans. Nothing like it any other time of the year.

 

[bballnut90]

I think Baylor could be an even better team. I think their offense may be a little better, execution wise because the lane won’t be clogged. Cox is going to be the Big 12 POY and DPOY. They have a shut down defender in Didi Richards and if she can up her offensive game look out. They have a shooter in Juicy Landrum. NaLyssa Smith is a breakout player waiting to happen, she fouled out in the title game if she works on her defensive game I think she can be an all Big 12 performer. I’m not sold on Te’a Cooper being that much of a help, but they played without a true point last year. Now all of that with the excellent bench players they have. They are definitely a final four squad imo. I believe this because they choked for a few years in the Elite Eight and they finally got over the hump this past year.

Another area that people haven't brought up is Baylor's passing and A/TO. As a team they had a remarkable 1.7 A/TO ratio. Cox, Richards and Landrum each had over 140 assists better than a 2:1 A/TO ratio. Ursin also had 55 assists to just 25 turnovers and is a pretty good utility player for being just 5-6. They're going to be very good once again even if it takes time to adjust and improve. Their schedule is also very light when you factor in Big 12 play, the only games I can see them losing are @Uconn, vs. South Carolina and maybe one of the Texas games if lightning strikes twice.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I think this year you have 3 teams far superior to the rest of the field, UCONN (especially if Westbrook is given this year to play), & Baylor & Oregon!
These 3 can make the Final Four if they remain healthy! They have the pieces to go the distance!
Now picking the 4th team that's the rub!
Any of Stanford, Oregon St., TXA&M, TX, Miss ST, L'ville, DePaul, & SoCar have reasons that they could make it to the Final Four and also they have reasons they won't get out of the Elite 8! Who's going to be the hottest at the right time? My picks to have that shot is Stanford, Oregon St and Miss ST as I really like their Head Coaches to make the most of their team chemistry!
But then again that's why they play the games!

 

[tazmaz]

If Kayla Wells (15 ppg) and post Ciera Johnson (12ppg 8 rbd) continue to get better and with Wilson (13 ppg in 9 games) returning from injury and solid role players like Washington to go with Carter, A&M definitely has a chance. Plus they have another post that’s not bad and has a high ceiling.
Wouldn’t bet on them chemistry wise but they are a rising stock with room to appreciate.