ANALYSIS and COMMENTS - UConn vs Syracuse - Round of 32 (Game 2 - NCAA Tournament)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Well, one down 5 to go... With the round of 64 behind us, first I will give kudos to Jackson State getting into the NCAA tournament is very difficult coming from the SWAC but they did it and they came to play. They weren't intimidated or awestruck by the big stage. They unfortunately do not recruit the quality players that UConn is able to acquire.

UConn was able to out-rebound Jackson State 45 - 36 despite Jackson State having a significant height advantage. This goes to show that just because a player is big doesn't mean that they are a quality big. If they were chances are they would have been recruited by one of the major college programs. Paige, Aaliyah, and Ashlynn combined for 74 of UConn's 86 points. While this is a good thing to have three players scoring over 20 points I am concerned that it will help teams that we will face down the line to pinpoint where they will focus their defense. Although our bench collectively was only able to play 32 minutes in this game it continues to be quite anemic. Ice Brady got the most minutes with 22 minutes and despite not being able to score she was able to get 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. In seven minutes of playing time, Samuels was only able to muster 3 points. We will need more contributions from our bench as we go deeper into the NCAA tournament.

Syracuse averages 74.4 points per game while holding its opponents to 65.4 points per game. Outside Djaisha Fair and Georgia Woolley Syracuse is not much of a three-point threat. It should be noted that Djaisha Fair could go off for 5 or more three-pointers at any time. UConn has had its trouble with small fast, good shooting guards, Hildago of Notre Dame comes to mind. Djaisha is that kind of guard and she must not be taken lightly. Syracuse averages 41.6 rebounds per game. UConn must continue to rebound like they did in round 1 to minimize Syracuse's second-chance points. Syracuse takes fairly good care of the basketball only committing 14.5 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 16.4 times per game. Syracuse likes to push the ball and they get downhill very quickly. They average 17.2 points off turnovers. Their on-ball pressure produces 9.1 steals per game, and they average 4.6 blocks per game. It should be noted that Syracuse beat Notre Dame twice despite Hildago scoring 32 and 23 respectively in each game.

Syracuse's RPI is 42 and their SOS is 85. UConn's RPI is 3 and its SOS is also 3.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kyra Wood, 6'3". Kyra averages 6.3 points, 6.7 rebounds per game, and 1.1 blocks per game. She will play about 21 minutes per game and when she goes to the bench you can expect Isabel Varejao to be her replacement. Isabel averages 6.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Aaliyah is having a great senior year and she doesn't seem to be hampered by wearing a mask to protect her broken nose. Aaliyah is averaging 17.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I don't see Aaliyah having much difficulty with either Kyra or Isabel. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Alyssa Lathum, 6'2" - Alyssa is a strong forward averaging 8.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Paige Beuckers is playing out of position as a swing forward. Her constant movement without the basketball will be a challenge for Alyssa and I would look for Paige's style of play to pull Alyssa out from the basket which should limit her ability to rebound. Paige is playing POY level of basketball (just my opinion...well, I am probably not the only one who thinks so). She is averaging 21.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Georgia Woolley, 6'0" - Georgia is consistently Syracuse's most effective offensive player. She averages 13.9 points, 3.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and she hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. Hopefully, Nika's suffocating defense will hold Georgia below her averages. I am also equally hopeful that Nika doesn't commit any foolish fouls and has to go to the bench. If she does I believe that Qadence's length will be enough to hold Georgia in check. NIka is averaging 7.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and she hits 1.3 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Alaina Rice, 5'8" - Alaina averages 10 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and hits 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn has just come off of a career game where she scored a career-high 26 points. Ashlynn is averaging 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and she hits 1.7 three-pointers per game.
I expect Ashlynn to continue playing her best basketball in the post-season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Dyaisha Fair, 5'6" - Dyaisha is a Dynamo...she averages 22.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.2 steals, and an amazing 3.6 three-pointers per game. She has had 4 games of 30 or more points. Her season high was 38 points. She has had 18 games where she scored 20 or more points. KK will have her hands full guarding Dyaisha. KK will need to stay out of foul trouble. Keeping Dyaisha below her average is possible, especially with help from her teammates. KK is averaging 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. I do think that KK will make life difficult for Dyaisha but I think Dyaisha has too much firepower for KK and will prevail in this match-up. Even if Nika switches with KK and KK guards the 6'0" Woolley and Nika guards Dyaisha I don't see the results changing that much.
ADVANTAGE - SYRACUSE

BENCH

Alas, UConn's bench is very thin as they bring 10.6 points and 7.5 rebounds off the bench. Syracuse on the other hand, will bring 18.2 points and 11.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - SYRACUSE

INTANGIBLES

For UConn, it is a home game and for our seniors, it will be their last time playing in front of the home crowd. Paige is intent on putting the team on her back if she needs to. Aaliyah doesn't appear to be hampered by wearing the mask. UConn's defense is rated 40th (96.5) by Warren Nolan Advance Defensive Ratings: (Defensive Rating = Opponent Points / 100 Possessions). Syracuse's defense is rated 259 (106.3). According to Warren Nolan's Advance Offense ratings (Offensive Rating = Points / 100 Possessions), The UConn Husky's offense rating is 14 (106.2) while Syracuse's offense rating is 67 (99.3). ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

UConn's coaching staff is dialed in. This is where Geno and crew have always proved their metal. I think they will have the Huskies ready to get the job done.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 81
Syracuse - 76

MOV - 5

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again for an excellent analysis @cferraro04. This is very helpful.

Judging from the Arizona game, containing Fair is likely not possible for our guards. She’ll get her 20+ points. The key is not to foul her much. She gets a lot of points from the free throw line. Make the others beat us… if they can.

Also exploit their defense. They are opportunistic and cause turnovers. But Fair, as quick and clever as she is, can also be a defensive liability. Ash and Paige need to figure out how to exploit her size. Speedy little guards are often vulnerable to ball fakes, for example, or back cuts. This is what we did to the speedy guards on Indiana two years ago.

Wood and Wooley and Latham and Rice are not enough to beat us. This is a group we can manage. This is also why I think your MoV may be too close. I think we can win by double figures.

 

[Kat]

I watched the 4th quarter of the Syracuse vs AZ game. Fair completely took over at the end. Don’t know how you stop her when she’s feeling it, but I don’t think they can stop the Huskies, either. Gonna be a shootout, and I like our chances.

 

[HuskerDo]

It's hard to understand why Arizona didn't run a hard double team at Fair immediately, near the end when it was obvious she had no intention of giving up the ball to anyone else.

Uconn could run into a Hidalgo problem with her--a high pick and roll whenever Brady is in the game. It doesn't matter who Brady guarded--that player set the pick for Hildalgo, and by the time Brady moved a step on a hedge, Hidalgo was at the basket shooting a layup. The only solution may be a drastic one--to have third player move in Fair's direction on a screen and then try to recover.

 

[Bone Dog]

It's hard to understand why Arizona didn't run a hard double team at Fair immediately, near the end when it was obvious she had no intention of giving up the ball to anyone else.

Uconn could run into a Hidalgo problem with her--a high pick and roll whenever Brady is in the game. It doesn't matter who Brady guarded--that player set the pick for Hildalgo, and by the time Brady moved a step on a hedge, Hidalgo was at the basket shooting a layup. The only solution may be a drastic one--to have third player move in Fair's direction on a screen and then try to recover.

I agree, and I also have visions of Hidalgo. Arizona had too many fouls by the 4th quarter and Fair took advantage of it. Williams, who is very like KK, couldn’t resist reach-in fouls and trying to contest too closely. Blakely and Jones did no better trying to defend her. Every time Fair would taunt them with her handles you knew what was coming.

Still, if Martinez and Cunningham hadn’t gotten into foul trouble, they could have held onto their lead and won. But Pueyo couldn’t do it all by herself. As tempting as it may be for Aaliyah and Ice to try to block shots, they should be extra cautious. Having them available and not in foul trouble in the 4th will be key. Leave the shot blocking to Paige.

The other thing I noticed is that Fair had no fouls. They didn’t challenge her enough on defense, especially in that 2-3 zone where Coach Jack would try to hide her in the corner. I think that zone could have been exploited, though maybe Williams wasn’t the player to do it. But when they were in man-defense, and Fair was on Williams at the top of the key, she had open shots. I expect Ash (who is 2 inches taller than Williams and likely 5 or 6 inches taller than Fair) will be able to shoot over her from the corner. I also think KK should resist the temptation to try to beat her off the dribble. This is a game when she needs to find her outside shot.

The situation we want to avoid is being too tired in the 4th when Fair is not. Make her play defense early, don’t send her to the foul line, and expect she’ll get her 20. They play that zone as much as they can get away with it in order to keep Fair fresh for the 4th. Break down the zone. I’m pretty sure Paige and Ash know how to do that.

 

[Tonyc]

UConn answered alot of the fears some fans had against Jackson St. JS Height being number 1. UConns defense will carry them through this tournament and Paige and Aaliyah will carry the offense. UConn imo should handle The Cuse leading with their defense. We will need more from everybody else scoring wise. Ash was terrific and we will need more from her. This UConn team seems very much under control in their execution. Their poise and energy are very evident which imo has led to UConn avoiding foul trouble. Paige has no fear and her anticipation to see plays and make plays is something most players dont have. I expect Mondays game to showcase Paiges ability to lead and take over when need be. Its March and do you know what time it is?????? Its Paige's Time

 

[kidfrom360]

I think we can contain Fair nicely this game and limit her production. She’s the type of the player that is going to get her 20 points either way, but since she has a similar style of play as Hidalgo does, I think we took some key learnings on how to guard that type of player. So, we should be in a better position, even if that means double teaming her at times, cause there aren’t many other offensive threats on Syracuse’s team from what I saw in yesterdays game

 

[cferraro04]

Great comments...I'm sure Geno's scouting staff...has read the comments here from the advanced scouts and has crafted a game plan to contain Miss Fair. If not its off to Disney.

 

[Henry]

In the old days, when we'd play a team like Louisville with Angel McCoughtry, Geno's approach was that she'd get her points and our aim was to prevent the rest of the team from scoring. He hasn't talked about using that approach in recent years, but that may have to be the approach tomorrow.

Staying out of foul trouble will be key.

 

[RoadMaster]

This goes to show that just because a player is big doesn't mean that they are a quality big. If they were chances are they would have been recruited by one of the major college programs.

Another good analysis.
However, personally, I thought that their big had a pretty good game (as did Aaliyah and her partner in "holding down the paint" ).
Also, and I could be mistaken on this, but I thought that she had come to Jackson State via portal from U.S.C. who recruited her?
At any rate, it's on to Syracuse! Go Huskies!

 

[jeff30189]

I think we can concede that Fair is the wild card in this game, and that she is capable of taking over a game if she gets on a roll. First, make her really work defensively, which unfortunately means KK needs to take it to the hole and look for good shots, not exactly her strength lately. Don't let Fair rest on defense. Second, deny Fair the ball when possible and force her to give it up by constantly double-teaming the ball when she has it.

Learn from the unfortunate Hidalgo episode.

 

[jaydee602]

The opening line in Vegas is UCONN (-20).
The over/ under total points: 145.

 

[huskeynut]

Great analysis.

Fair will not have it as easy as many think.

 

[Aluminny69]

This guy always does a very fair, insightful analysis

 

[Aluminny69]

Question: What do Saniya Rivers (33 pts), Kiki Rice (24 pts), Rori Harmon (27 pts), Hannah Hidalgo (34 pts) and Te-Hina Paopao ( 21 pts ) have in common?

 

[Cornell Lt]

Question: What do Saniya Rivers (33 pts), Kiki Rice (24 pts), Rori Harmon (27 pts), Hannah Hidalgo (34 pts) and Te-Hina Paopao ( 21 pts ) have in common?

They like UConn's defense

 

[JoePgh]

Question: What do Saniya Rivers (33 pts), Kiki Rice (24 pts), Rori Harmon (27 pts), Hannah Hidalgo (34 pts) and Te-Hina Paopao ( 21 pts ) have in common?

One thing that they have in common (beyond the obvious) is that they all have very capable bigs as teammates who cannot be lightly guarded. The Syracuse bigs are not at the same level.

I wouldn't be surprised to see UConn use a 3-2 zone so that there are two defenders on the ball whenever it is in the backcourt. I remember Geno doing that against Kelsey Mitchell when she was the star of the Ohio State team. If it works, it will turn Fair into a passer rather than a shooter, and force the other four Orangewomen to carry the offense.

I don't think Syracuse can win if that happens.

 

[and one]

If we can score 80, which we should, and Fair goes off for 30, which is quite possible, then the defense needs to hold the rest of the 'cuse squad to 49 or less, which is very doable. The math is obvious but the point is that it's better to not get in foul problems trying to keep Fair to say 20 points and instead work hard to keep everyone else below average. UConn has done this in the past when playing teams with one big scoring threat.

 

[Zarathustra]

They like UConn's defense

Tomorrow is ANOTHER DAY!! Go Paige, Go Aaliyah, go Huskies. NIKA get those assists!

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[Skeets]

One thing that they have in common (beyond the obvious) is that they all have very capable bigs as teammates who cannot be lightly guarded. The Syracuse bigs are not at the same level.

I wouldn't be surprised to see UConn use a 3-2 zone so that there are two defenders on the ball whenever it is in the backcourt. I remember Geno doing that against Kelsey Mitchell when she was the star of the Ohio State team. If it works, it will turn Fair into a passer rather than a shooter, and force the other four Orangewomen to carry the offense.

I don't think Syracuse can win if that happens.

I respectfully disagree. I have yet to see UConn play a real good zone defense (they aren't Syra-excuse men). They are a man-to-man defense with (usually) excellent switches. I'd rather see UConn face guard the other guards/scorers. Make the other team respond to UConn, not the other way around. If you have to lose, do it you're playing your game, not their game.

 

[maple]

It's hard to understand why Arizona didn't run a hard double team at Fair immediately, near the end when it was obvious she had no intention of giving up the ball to anyone else.

She does have a tendency to play hero ball on the later ends of games. More than once I have seen her try to drive into a very crowded paint or start chucking up 3s (with varying success). She’s not a totally selfish player but if you can get her to start rushing …

 

[FormerCTrez]

I think we can concede that Fair is the wild card in this game, and that she is capable of taking over a game if she gets on a roll. First, make her really work defensively, which unfortunately means KK needs to take it to the hole and look for good shots, not exactly her strength lately. Don't let Fair rest on defense. Second, deny Fair the ball when possible and force her to give it up by constantly double-teaming the ball when she has it.

Learn from the unfortunate Hidalgo episode.

Although Hidalgo played well, I think she went off with her shots when Nika fouled out. However, I believe UConn will win tomorrow, but they’ll have to work together as a collective unit. I think Nika needs to face guard Fair hard. Let her ask her teammates for help just like Caitlin Clark did. Go UConn! Go Huskies!