COMMENTS
Well, one down 5 to go... With the round of 64 behind us, first I will give kudos to Jackson State getting into the NCAA tournament is very difficult coming from the SWAC but they did it and they came to play. They weren't intimidated or awestruck by the big stage. They unfortunately do not recruit the quality players that UConn is able to acquire.
UConn was able to out-rebound Jackson State 45 - 36 despite Jackson State having a significant height advantage. This goes to show that just because a player is big doesn't mean that they are a quality big. If they were chances are they would have been recruited by one of the major college programs. Paige, Aaliyah, and Ashlynn combined for 74 of UConn's 86 points. While this is a good thing to have three players scoring over 20 points I am concerned that it will help teams that we will face down the line to pinpoint where they will focus their defense. Although our bench collectively was only able to play 32 minutes in this game it continues to be quite anemic. Ice Brady got the most minutes with 22 minutes and despite not being able to score she was able to get 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks. In seven minutes of playing time, Samuels was only able to muster 3 points. We will need more contributions from our bench as we go deeper into the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse averages 74.4 points per game while holding its opponents to 65.4 points per game. Outside Djaisha Fair and Georgia Woolley Syracuse is not much of a three-point threat. It should be noted that Djaisha Fair could go off for 5 or more three-pointers at any time. UConn has had its trouble with small fast, good shooting guards, Hildago of Notre Dame comes to mind. Djaisha is that kind of guard and she must not be taken lightly. Syracuse averages 41.6 rebounds per game. UConn must continue to rebound like they did in round 1 to minimize Syracuse's second-chance points. Syracuse takes fairly good care of the basketball only committing 14.5 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 16.4 times per game. Syracuse likes to push the ball and they get downhill very quickly. They average 17.2 points off turnovers. Their on-ball pressure produces 9.1 steals per game, and they average 4.6 blocks per game. It should be noted that Syracuse beat Notre Dame twice despite Hildago scoring 32 and 23 respectively in each game.
Syracuse's RPI is 42 and their SOS is 85. UConn's RPI is 3 and its SOS is also 3.
ANALYSIS
Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kyra Wood, 6'3". Kyra averages 6.3 points, 6.7 rebounds per game, and 1.1 blocks per game. She will play about 21 minutes per game and when she goes to the bench you can expect Isabel Varejao to be her replacement. Isabel averages 6.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. Aaliyah is having a great senior year and she doesn't seem to be hampered by wearing a mask to protect her broken nose. Aaliyah is averaging 17.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. I don't see Aaliyah having much difficulty with either Kyra or Isabel. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Alyssa Lathum, 6'2" - Alyssa is a strong forward averaging 8.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks. Paige Beuckers is playing out of position as a swing forward. Her constant movement without the basketball will be a challenge for Alyssa and I would look for Paige's style of play to pull Alyssa out from the basket which should limit her ability to rebound. Paige is playing POY level of basketball (just my opinion...well, I am probably not the only one who thinks so). She is averaging 21.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Georgia Woolley, 6'0" - Georgia is consistently Syracuse's most effective offensive player. She averages 13.9 points, 3.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and she hits 1.2 three-pointers per game. Hopefully, Nika's suffocating defense will hold Georgia below her averages. I am also equally hopeful that Nika doesn't commit any foolish fouls and has to go to the bench. If she does I believe that Qadence's length will be enough to hold Georgia in check. NIka is averaging 7.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and she hits 1.3 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Alaina Rice, 5'8" - Alaina averages 10 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and hits 1 three-pointer per game. Ashlynn has just come off of a career game where she scored a career-high 26 points. Ashlynn is averaging 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and she hits 1.7 three-pointers per game.
I expect Ashlynn to continue playing her best basketball in the post-season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Dyaisha Fair, 5'6" - Dyaisha is a Dynamo...she averages 22.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2.2 steals, and an amazing 3.6 three-pointers per game. She has had 4 games of 30 or more points. Her season high was 38 points. She has had 18 games where she scored 20 or more points. KK will have her hands full guarding Dyaisha. KK will need to stay out of foul trouble. Keeping Dyaisha below her average is possible, especially with help from her teammates. KK is averaging 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. I do think that KK will make life difficult for Dyaisha but I think Dyaisha has too much firepower for KK and will prevail in this match-up. Even if Nika switches with KK and KK guards the 6'0" Woolley and Nika guards Dyaisha I don't see the results changing that much.
ADVANTAGE - SYRACUSE
BENCH
Alas, UConn's bench is very thin as they bring 10.6 points and 7.5 rebounds off the bench. Syracuse on the other hand, will bring 18.2 points and 11.7 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - SYRACUSE
INTANGIBLES
For UConn, it is a home game and for our seniors, it will be their last time playing in front of the home crowd. Paige is intent on putting the team on her back if she needs to. Aaliyah doesn't appear to be hampered by wearing the mask. UConn's defense is rated 40th (96.5) by Warren Nolan Advance Defensive Ratings: (Defensive Rating = Opponent Points / 100 Possessions). Syracuse's defense is rated 259 (106.3). According to Warren Nolan's Advance Offense ratings (Offensive Rating = Points / 100 Possessions), The UConn Husky's offense rating is 14 (106.2) while Syracuse's offense rating is 67 (99.3). ADVANTAGE - UCONN
COACHING
UConn's coaching staff is dialed in. This is where Geno and crew have always proved their metal. I think they will have the Huskies ready to get the job done.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
SCORE
UConn - 81
Syracuse - 76
MOV - 5
