Of course Hurley is the "more sure thing." Oats inherited a good team from Bobby Hurley that went 23-10 the year before. He's kept them playing pretty well, but he's never righted a ship. He's never been a head coach anywhere but Buffalo. He has 3 years of coaching experience at the D1 level.
Compare that to Dan Hurley.
And, consider, too, that Hurley has won the A10 outright, etc., a much better conference than Buffalo's.
I like Oats. I really do. But this program needs someone who can come in and fix things, not someone with little experience who has never righted a ship.
If Hurley rejects us, Oat's is a better option than most on the board. But Hurley is the best bed at the moment.