Amore: "AAC Tourney Make or Break"

[zls44]

I still think UConn gets in without needing to win the conference tournament, but it's very hard to justify them suddenly finding consistency for any reason other than some real dregs on the schedule.

There aren't many chances left for good wins but plenty of chances for bad losses.

 

[UC990411]

With our fan base if the team is really struggling there will be 3k people there for early round games given inflated prices for tourneys. Maybe people would come out to the title game.

3k? Less than an exhibition against Assumption? Stop...please.

 

[whaler11]

3k? Less than an exhibition against Assumption? Stop...please.

The early round non UConn sessions have a 0% chance of drawing 3k in attendance.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The early round non UConn sessions have a 0% chance of drawing 3k in attendance.

The Civic Center humm is going to be deafening to the 347 people watching UCF vs ECU on ESPN3.

 

[whaler11]

The Civic Center humm is going to be deafening to the 347 people watching UCF vs ECU on ESPN3.

I've been to the non UConn sessions for the women's tourney. 347 is a pretty solid guess.

 

[upstater]

The team that wins the AAC regular season is getting a bid whether or not they win the tourney. Unless they finish 9-7 (I'm not even sure how many games UConn plays).

 

[chapwilvaug72]

amore mean aless; this pseudo author states what was obvious five weeks ago, ha ha

 

[chapwilvaug72]

uppity:what yo pt? dogs sub five hundred club; they not come close to conf reg season first place; win tourney in hrfd pipedream; one and out in conn arena in capital and go home to ponder how not to embarrass self next yr on hardwood

 

[pnow15]

I think 11-3 (20-10) gets us close to the tourney. A couple of wins in AAC tourney makes it a shoe in. We need to win home games including Tulsa by a lot.The NCAA com. respects tough early season scheduling, takes in to account who was hurt, likes competitive loses and UConn has been in every game until the last few minutes. Yale is the only team that has upset us. We were underdogs in about every game. It considers how a team is playing at the end of the season. Has it gotten better? If Brimah can stay on the court and Boatright heals and we can get some consistency out of some other guys we should be OK.. Remember, the committee will want one questioned answered: Can these guys advance? With the exception of Kt, we can beat anyone if everyone brings his A game and refs are fair.
This team has not been athletically outclassed on the floor with the exception Stanford with the home job refs.
This team has been beating itself, missing free throws, dumb turnovers and dumber fouls.

 

[mauconnfan]

I've been to the non UConn sessions for the women's tourney. 347 is a pretty solid guess.

 

[Kitaman]

I have recently joined the KA program (kool-aid anonymous). I know you all are projecting, but this is a one day (i.e. game) at a time team.

Talk of running tables, winning the conference tourney and 23-24 wins are drugs I am trying to avoid. I must stay in the now, which for me means we have to win Saturday against UCF.

 

[TheRealKBuks]

This is so true. Case and point....Lunardi has us as the first 4 out today. At 9-7, and 2-2 in the league, we are right on the line NOW. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I'm still cautious about whether or not we are truly on the line, last year Lunardi liked the AAC a lot more than the committee did

 

[itgoeslike]

UConn needs to avoid a bad loss to one of the bottom 4-5 in the conference. The last second loss to Yale is the worst loss to date, but a least they appear to have an RPI around 75 (for now). All the other losses have been relatively close to teams with an RPI of 50 or higher. A road loss or two to SMU, Cincy, or Temple can be absorbed, but losing at home to a 200+ RPI team would create some serious headwinds for an at-large bid. (Basically avoid what we did to UCF in football).

 

[HuskyBballFan]

If you break our remaining schedule into two halves, the first stretch of 7 is very soft and the latter stretch of 7 is tougher (5 against SMU/Temple/Memphis).

In order for those last 7 games to matter, we absolutely cannot go worse than 6-1 in the next 7. Splitting the Cincy/Tulsa games won't knock us out completely, but going 0-2 probably does and losing any of the other 5 (UCF/USF/Houston/ECU/Tulane) certainly does.

There won't be much bubble watching going on if we're worse than 15-8 going into the SMU game on Valentine's Day.

 

[Shabazzkets]

This team still has the pieces to win the AAC tournament--Boatright is your go-to guy, Hamilton can be a second scorer if he ever stops turning it over, Purvis and Calhoun could get going, Brimah can be a difference maker, Facey is improving, etc. But in their current state, it seems highly unlikely that they will win 85% of their remaining non-tournament games (12 of 14) , which I think they would need to do in order to get into the NCAA tournament without an AAC tourney run. SMU played a terrible non-conference last year but did win 23 games, and got sent to the NIT. UConn would have to win out to get to 23 this year, unless they make a run in the AAC tourney.

On current evidence, you'd have to assume losses @ Cinci and @ SMU--we've not been good away from home, except for about 10 minutes @ Florida. @ Temple will be tough. Tulsa at home will be a grind. Both Memphis games are potential slip-ups. @ Houston is risky. And you have to be worried about another Yale type of game too. I don't see anything better than 10-4 the rest of the way. 19-11 in the AAC isn't getting it done. There will be tons of teams with that profile, and while we might have played a tougher non-conference than all of them, you still have to win your share of big games. Our signature wins are against Florida and Cinci, and neither is ranked.

It's AAC Tourney or bust to my eyes.

 

[BFieldHusky]

You forgot Dayton, who is Top 25 now, and Top 25 in the RPI.

While I agree that they have a lot of work to do, and it is very possible they will need to win the American tournament, the comparisons to SMU from last year need to stop. SMU played one of the worst out of league schedules in the country last year. That was a HUGE factor in why they didn't get in. They also lost games to Temple, South Florida, and Houston last year in the American. Out of their 23 wins, they beat UConn twice, Memphis and Cincy one each for a total of 4 solid wins. We already have 3 this year in Dayton, Florida (I still think their RPI will improve immensely by the end of the year) and Cincinnati, with opportunities against SMU twice, Cincinnati, Tulsa and maybe Temple during the regular season.

Avoiding the bad loss in conference is just as big a key going forward as beating the big boys. Beat everyone you should, and then go 4-2 against the better half of the league and you are 23-9. Win a game in the American tournament, and I think we are safely in.

 

[Silk31]

For those still holding out hope on an at large bid...I envy your eternal optimistic ways

It is AAC tournament championship or we will become another reigning champion to be NIT bound

 

[7774]

For those still holding out hope on an at large bid...I envy your eternal optimistic ways

It is AAC tournament championship or we will become another reigning champion to be NIT bound

Thanks for letting us know.

 

[jibsey]

Why don't we let 5 or 6 games go by and see if we have anything to really talk about? We all of a sudden start dominating the AAC then maybe there is a way in without a tourney championship. Right now it's if this, if that, if Dayton......

 

[Silk31]

Thanks for letting us know.

No problem, you either must be one of those eternal optimists I envy so much or you're just a fan of sarcasm

 

[7774]

No problem, you either must be one of those eternal optimists I envy so much or you're just a fan of sarcasm

I'm just a person who has the requisite intelligence to understand how much can change over the course of 14 games. Especially given what happened with the team I'm a fan of in 2011 and 2014. I also understand how incredibly terrible the bubble has been every year since the field expanded to 68 teams. I also understand that as the defending national champion with the Connecticut name brand, we will get in the field over some other random team if all other things are equal.

None of this is to say I think it's likely we get an automatic bid. I don't think it's likely (i.e. over 50% at this point). But the percentage we do get one is higher than you are making it out to be.

 

[Silk31]

I'm just a person who has the requisite intelligence to understand how much can change over the course of 14 games. Especially given what happened with the team I'm a fan of in 2011 and 2014. I also understand how incredibly terrible the bubble has been every year since the field expanded to 68 teams. I also understand that as the defending national champion with the Connecticut name brand, we will get in the field over some other random team if all other things are equal.

None of this is to say I think it's likely we get an automatic bid. I don't think it's likely (i.e. over 50% at this point). But the percentage we do get one is higher than you are making it out to be.

I'm not lacking the knowledge, I'm just saying that agonizing over this every game is annoying. Just look at our product, we are 9-7 and haven't shown all that much. We currently have more of an opportunity to worsen our resume with losses to AAC schools rather than strengthen it. Running the table in the regular season is not realistic...ip so facto it's conference tourney in my book...you just have a different taste in books than I do

 

[3rdbass]

I'm not lacking the knowledge, I'm just saying that agonizing over this every game is annoying. Just look at our product, we are 9-7 and haven't shown all that much. We currently have more of an opportunity to worsen our resume with losses to ty AAC schools rather than strengthen it. Running the table in the regular season is not realistic...ip so facto it's conference tourney in my book...you just have a different taste in books than I do

Though I basically agree with you I wouldn't rule out UCONN just yet. They could still go 12-2 the rest of the regular season or maybe 11-3 and still make it. They would have to win at least 1 at 12-2 and twice at 11-3 in the tourney to get in. I just don't see it right now but I'm willing to see one game at a time where they end up. Right now I'm not too positive about them making it but if you are a UCONN fan then there is still a chance until they are mathematically out of it according to the RPI for an at large bid. LOL! Even then they can still win the Tourney since it is at home against pretty weak competition.

 

[ktuck911]

Even though we're not as good this season you can see the growth.. We're gonna give teams fits in 2015-16... Hoping we make it to the NCAA tourney, NIT at the very least...

 

[3rdbass]

Even though we're not as good this season you can see the growth.. We're gonna give teams fits in 2015-16... Hoping we make it to the NCAA tourney, NIT at the very least...

I just hope AB can get stronger even it means only a few pounds more than he is now. He doesn't have a huge frame to begin with as far as his shoulders.

 

[7774]

I'm not lacking the knowledge, I'm just saying that agonizing over this every game is annoying. Just look at our product, we are 9-7 and haven't shown all that much. We currently have more of an opportunity to worsen our resume with losses to ty AAC schools rather than strengthen it. Running the table in the regular season is not realistic...ip so facto it's conference tourney in my book...you just have a different taste in books than I do

What are we agonizing over every game? And if whatever it is annoys you, don't read it?

 

[Candyman]

The concern for me is this team hasnt looked good at all the last 2 games. They look like their getting worse. No life or fight from them. I would be optimistic if they played hard but they seem to have given up. So NIT here we come.

 

[jibsey]

Here's a question. Last night Pitt got beat at Duke pretty good. We played Duke pretty much the same but Pitt and Syracuse continue to get to play ranked teams up and down their schedule. Do St. John's, Pitt, and Cuse, have better chances than us at this point?

 

[selles]

The concern for me is this team hasnt looked good at all the last 2 games. They look like their getting worse. No life or fight from them. I would be optimistic if they played hard but they seem to have given up. So NIT here we come.

In fairness, the last 5 games were a tough stretch of schedule. Lots of pressure to win, 4 decent opponents, and a ton of travel. I think the energy we expended against Florida and Cincy plus the travel played a big part in how we looked last week.

Hopefully we can come out fresh after this break and use 2 home games against lesser opponents to start a bit of a roll. Things aren't looking great, but I'm not ready to give up the ship yet.

 

[Silk31]

What are we agonizing over every game? And if whatever it is annoys you, don't read it?

Lighten up bro...don't understand why some people always looking for confrontation. I even presented you a peace offering by throwing you a like on your post.