Amore: "AAC Tourney Make or Break"

[Gampeltiles]

While it's unrealistic if they ran the table they would be in.

The NIT. Their RPI is north of 100 and only play AAC teams the rest of the way. Use this time to peak in Hartford, even if it means sacrificing some regular season games.

 

[7774]

The NIT. Their RPI is north of 100 and only play AAC teams the rest of the way. Use this time to peak in Hartford, even if it means sacrificing some regular season games.

I'd have more confidence in your ability to predict the future and know what will happen if we win the rest of our regular season games if you had shown the ability to know what our RPI is right now. Since, you know, that's an actual fact you can just look up. You were off by 25-30 spots in case you were wondering.

 

[BoatShow]

The NIT. Their RPI is north of 100 and only play AAC teams the rest of the way. Use this time to peak in Hartford, even if it means sacrificing some regular season games.

RPI isn't JUST SOS. A winning % like UConn's reeks havoc on RPI. If they win 11 or 12 of the next 14 regardless of who it's against their RPI will be in the 40s or 50s

 

[gwhuskyfan]

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/connecticut-huskies/bracketology

Like this website a lot. If we can get to 21 wins, it gives us a 94% chance to make the tournament. This includes conference tournament wins. We have 14 regular season games left. That would mean winning 12/14 to get to 21. 20 wins gives us 63%. Given the conference tournament, I think we can get to the 21 win number. Thoughts?

 

[whaler11]

The NIT. Their RPI is north of 100 and only play AAC teams the rest of the way. Use this time to peak in Hartford, even if it means sacrificing some regular season games.

If they win the rest of the games let me know what happens. They would be in by ten teams if they win out.

 

[zls44]

I still think UConn gets in without needing to win the conference tournament, but it's very hard to justify them suddenly finding consistency for any reason other than some real dregs on the schedule.

There aren't many chances left for good wins but plenty of chances for bad losses.

 

[UC990411]

With our fan base if the team is really struggling there will be 3k people there for early round games given inflated prices for tourneys. Maybe people would come out to the title game.

3k? Less than an exhibition against Assumption? Stop...please.

 

[whaler11]

3k? Less than an exhibition against Assumption? Stop...please.

The early round non UConn sessions have a 0% chance of drawing 3k in attendance.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The early round non UConn sessions have a 0% chance of drawing 3k in attendance.

The Civic Center humm is going to be deafening to the 347 people watching UCF vs ECU on ESPN3.

 

[whaler11]

The Civic Center humm is going to be deafening to the 347 people watching UCF vs ECU on ESPN3.

I've been to the non UConn sessions for the women's tourney. 347 is a pretty solid guess.

 

[upstater]

The team that wins the AAC regular season is getting a bid whether or not they win the tourney. Unless they finish 9-7 (I'm not even sure how many games UConn plays).

 

[chapwilvaug72]

amore mean aless; this pseudo author states what was obvious five weeks ago, ha ha

 

[chapwilvaug72]

uppity:what yo pt? dogs sub five hundred club; they not come close to conf reg season first place; win tourney in hrfd pipedream; one and out in conn arena in capital and go home to ponder how not to embarrass self next yr on hardwood

 

[pnow15]

I think 11-3 (20-10) gets us close to the tourney. A couple of wins in AAC tourney makes it a shoe in. We need to win home games including Tulsa by a lot.The NCAA com. respects tough early season scheduling, takes in to account who was hurt, likes competitive loses and UConn has been in every game until the last few minutes. Yale is the only team that has upset us. We were underdogs in about every game. It considers how a team is playing at the end of the season. Has it gotten better? If Brimah can stay on the court and Boatright heals and we can get some consistency out of some other guys we should be OK.. Remember, the committee will want one questioned answered: Can these guys advance? With the exception of Kt, we can beat anyone if everyone brings his A game and refs are fair.
This team has not been athletically outclassed on the floor with the exception Stanford with the home job refs.
This team has been beating itself, missing free throws, dumb turnovers and dumber fouls.

 

[mauconnfan]

I've been to the non UConn sessions for the women's tourney. 347 is a pretty solid guess.

 

[Kitaman]

I have recently joined the KA program (kool-aid anonymous). I know you all are projecting, but this is a one day (i.e. game) at a time team.

Talk of running tables, winning the conference tourney and 23-24 wins are drugs I am trying to avoid. I must stay in the now, which for me means we have to win Saturday against UCF.

 

[TheRealKBuks]

This is so true. Case and point....Lunardi has us as the first 4 out today. At 9-7, and 2-2 in the league, we are right on the line NOW. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I'm still cautious about whether or not we are truly on the line, last year Lunardi liked the AAC a lot more than the committee did

 

[itgoeslike]

UConn needs to avoid a bad loss to one of the bottom 4-5 in the conference. The last second loss to Yale is the worst loss to date, but a least they appear to have an RPI around 75 (for now). All the other losses have been relatively close to teams with an RPI of 50 or higher. A road loss or two to SMU, Cincy, or Temple can be absorbed, but losing at home to a 200+ RPI team would create some serious headwinds for an at-large bid. (Basically avoid what we did to UCF in football).

 

[HuskyBballFan]

If you break our remaining schedule into two halves, the first stretch of 7 is very soft and the latter stretch of 7 is tougher (5 against SMU/Temple/Memphis).

In order for those last 7 games to matter, we absolutely cannot go worse than 6-1 in the next 7. Splitting the Cincy/Tulsa games won't knock us out completely, but going 0-2 probably does and losing any of the other 5 (UCF/USF/Houston/ECU/Tulane) certainly does.

There won't be much bubble watching going on if we're worse than 15-8 going into the SMU game on Valentine's Day.

 

[Shabazzkets]

This team still has the pieces to win the AAC tournament--Boatright is your go-to guy, Hamilton can be a second scorer if he ever stops turning it over, Purvis and Calhoun could get going, Brimah can be a difference maker, Facey is improving, etc. But in their current state, it seems highly unlikely that they will win 85% of their remaining non-tournament games (12 of 14) , which I think they would need to do in order to get into the NCAA tournament without an AAC tourney run. SMU played a terrible non-conference last year but did win 23 games, and got sent to the NIT. UConn would have to win out to get to 23 this year, unless they make a run in the AAC tourney.

On current evidence, you'd have to assume losses @ Cinci and @ SMU--we've not been good away from home, except for about 10 minutes @ Florida. @ Temple will be tough. Tulsa at home will be a grind. Both Memphis games are potential slip-ups. @ Houston is risky. And you have to be worried about another Yale type of game too. I don't see anything better than 10-4 the rest of the way. 19-11 in the AAC isn't getting it done. There will be tons of teams with that profile, and while we might have played a tougher non-conference than all of them, you still have to win your share of big games. Our signature wins are against Florida and Cinci, and neither is ranked.

It's AAC Tourney or bust to my eyes.

 

[BFieldHusky]

You forgot Dayton, who is Top 25 now, and Top 25 in the RPI.

While I agree that they have a lot of work to do, and it is very possible they will need to win the American tournament, the comparisons to SMU from last year need to stop. SMU played one of the worst out of league schedules in the country last year. That was a HUGE factor in why they didn't get in. They also lost games to Temple, South Florida, and Houston last year in the American. Out of their 23 wins, they beat UConn twice, Memphis and Cincy one each for a total of 4 solid wins. We already have 3 this year in Dayton, Florida (I still think their RPI will improve immensely by the end of the year) and Cincinnati, with opportunities against SMU twice, Cincinnati, Tulsa and maybe Temple during the regular season.

Avoiding the bad loss in conference is just as big a key going forward as beating the big boys. Beat everyone you should, and then go 4-2 against the better half of the league and you are 23-9. Win a game in the American tournament, and I think we are safely in.

 

[Silk31]

For those still holding out hope on an at large bid...I envy your eternal optimistic ways

It is AAC tournament championship or we will become another reigning champion to be NIT bound

 

[7774]

For those still holding out hope on an at large bid...I envy your eternal optimistic ways

It is AAC tournament championship or we will become another reigning champion to be NIT bound

Thanks for letting us know.

 

[jibsey]

Why don't we let 5 or 6 games go by and see if we have anything to really talk about? We all of a sudden start dominating the AAC then maybe there is a way in without a tourney championship. Right now it's if this, if that, if Dayton......

 

[Silk31]

Thanks for letting us know.

No problem, you either must be one of those eternal optimists I envy so much or you're just a fan of sarcasm