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RS9999X

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Or ESPN could just gut the ACC. What do you think they will do?

I don't think they want ACC football. That will become obvious. They want V Tech, FSU, Clemson and NC State to Go to the B12.

Then let the ACC add UConn and Rutgers under the old contract terms -- everyone gets 12.9 million a team for 12 teams
 

whaler11

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The benchmark on the ACC deal is probably $210MM annually (14 schools x $15MM/school which ESPN already appears to have agreed to as part of the raid of the Big East). ESPN could take Clemson and FSU at $22.5 each (est.) and put them in the Big 12, and reduce the ACC contract by at least $30MM for the two lost teams, for a net cost to ESPN of $15MM per year, some of which will be picked up by Fox. In return, ESPN will increase the value of Clemson and FSU by giving them better matchups on a weekly basis.

Or ESPN could pay the ACC another $105MM a year. The difference, $90MM, would be an incremental ANNUAL cost, so the total cost over the contract would be an incremental $900 million to ESPN. Is ESPN really feeling that generous?

The only way ESPN budges is if they still want the rest of the ACC and decide that FSU and Clemson are more valuable to ESPN within the ACC than they are in the Big 12. Is all that worth $900MM?

Well if you think the Big East is getting lets say 12 million a football team, thats 1.4 billion over 10 years. Is that Big east worth 500 million more than the ACC without Clemson and FSU?
 

nelsonmuntz

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Well if you think the Big East is getting lets say 12 million a football team, thats 1.4 billion over 10 years. Is that Big east worth 500 million more than the ACC without Clemson and FSU?

That's not the right math. Without Clemson and FSU, if ESPN just leaves the contract alone at 12 teams, they will be paying $180MM a year, or $1.8 billion over the life of the deal. So they would ALREADY be paying the ACC-Clemson-FSU more than they are paying the Big East. The extra $900 million would just be thrown in for fun.
 

whaler11

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That's not the right math. Without Clemson and FSU, if ESPN just leaves the contract alone at 12 teams, they will be paying $180MM a year, or $1.8 billion over the life of the deal. So they would ALREADY be paying the ACC-Clemson-FSU more than they are paying the Big East. The extra $900 million would just be thrown in for fun.

Sorry I misunderstood your point the first time I read your post. I don't disagree on 22.5 each being an insane number for the ACC that they can't get.

I do disagree with the idea that they are trying gut the league. They are just playing hardball with them. Maybe their plan all along was to gut the ACC after they finished gutting the Big East but that doesn't make a ton of sense. Maybe the destruction of the ACC fell in their laps at this point and they see an opportunity, but they own the ACC - why destroy it over what will end up being much less than 90 million a year.

At some level FSU and Clemson have to understand they can make up a few million dollars in TV money by having a consistently better record in the ACC instead of tangling with more travel and a consistently tougher schedule.

That is the end game for Missouri. Welcome to the SEC - enjoy going 7-5 in your best years.

It's secondary but if ESPN is looking to dump the Big East, in the winter what are they selling for a basketball schedule if they weaken the ACC too badly? No one else but VPI can compete in football over the long term in the Big 12 or Big 10.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Sorry I misunderstood your point the first time I read your post. I don't disagree on 22.5 each being an insane number for the ACC that they can't get.

I do disagree with the idea that they are trying gut the league. They are just playing hardball with them. Maybe their plan all along was to gut the ACC after they finished gutting the Big East but that doesn't make a ton of sense. Maybe the destruction of the ACC fell in their laps at this point and they see an opportunity, but they own the ACC - why destroy it over what will end up being much less than 90 million a year.

At some level FSU and Clemson have to understand they can make up a few million dollars in TV money by having a consistently better record in the ACC instead of tangling with more travel and a consistently tougher schedule.

That is the end game for Missouri. Welcome to the SEC - enjoy going 7-5 in your best years.

It's secondary but if ESPN is looking to dump the Big East, in the winter what are they selling for a basketball schedule if they weaken the ACC too badly? No one else but VPI can compete in football over the long term in the Big 12 or Big 10.

This isn't a few million. Of FromTheInside's representation about Tier 3 rights from about 20 pages back is correct, and looking at the potential revenue of the new playoff system, FSU and Clemson could be looking at upwards of $30 million a year in the Big 12 vs. $15MM in the ACC. they would make up their $20MM departure fee in just over a year.

I am not sure what ESPN's game is, but they gave the Big 12 a contract that was by all accounts a hunting license, with the ACC being the biggest target. They may be pulling out the top properties to park them in a better football league, and treat the rest of the ACC as a basketball league with a football annex, basically pricing hoops at $10MM a year and football at $5. The reality for Duke is the number is more like $18 and -$3. If the NACC doesn't have a credible football league, ESPN won't have to put up with Swofford's silly demands for more money.

Assuming no other additions or subtractions, the remaining ACC is a very good basketball league and clearly the 6th best football conference. Adding UConn and Rutgers won't change that either.
 

Dann

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warning, rant here:

there is only 1 conf that can be a top 4 football league and THE powerhouse bball league. its not the ACC or the BE. ITS THE B10!!!
The B10 no matter who they add are safe fball wise. They can go for a kill that no one saw coming. There are 8 potential huge adds out there for them. most are big publics who have 1 MAJOR sport with the other being good enough with potential.

right now:
bball fluff- nebraska/minn/iowa/wisc/nw/pur/psu
top 20 all time bball schools- ill/mich/msu/ind/tosu

all of these potential adds bring new tv sets to the network along with huge matchups. each carrys there own rate $$ wise for the b10 contract to get even better. all would extend b10 footprint and still be map pleasing look.

nd-ok bball, fball is king
kansas-great bball, rebuilding fball
unc-great bball, great potential for fball
ruty-potential for bball, great fball potential
md-up and down in both sports, comeback needing $$$ help
uconn-great bball, great potential in fball
uva-good fball on the rise right now, ok bball with potential
mizzu- good fball and good/rising bball

the b10 can go for the kill. if fsu/clem make a move the BE and ACC are both dead. the B10 will go for the northeast from philly to nyc and leave nothing untouched. going to 18 for the B10 is better than 16 for many reasons. it helps keeps a higher amount of the old rival games possible. it gives them better baseball/soccer/puck etc leagues no doubt. its the best bball league ever. your talking half of the league being in the top 20 teams all time. insane, they now own college bball and as result the b10 network is great $$ in the winter plus all the outsourcing to espn/cbs etc gets them even more $$. none of the schools that they added have issues with stadiums. uconn would expand in a second for that offer as would ruty if more were still needed. thats not even a question.

so pick your 18 of that group. i'll say that mizzu stays in the sec and that nd joins up. so then it comes down to kan/md/uconn for the final 2 spots and that nd and the b1o want to go east so kansas stays in the B12.

fball you play your division, plus a cross game. thats 9 games. maybe a 2nd cross game instead of a ooc game?!?!? then most teams play a pac12 game for 11(thats a ooc bcs game), then a warmup fcs/mac type. can't argue with that right? those who don't play the pac12 game can get a ooc game elsewhere. thats the highest amount of tv for the newtork possible.

in fball play a round robin for all teams plus 1 rival game(same as fball would be a good idea). have the B10 tney rotate chicago/nyc/phili/dc/ohio somewhere every 5 years. or pick a perm spot. 1 or the other. maybe laying a new claim to NYC is the way to go with that...

something like:
west- neb/minn/wisc/iowa/msu/mich/ill/nw/pur
east- tosu/nd/psu/ind/md/uva/unc/ruty/uconn

that lets neb/msu/mich and tosu/nd/psu go at it most years for each division. winners go to the ship game for a playoff bid. thats a great fball setup. in bball is epic and in other sports its now a monster as well. huge tv markets, huge products, huge fanbases etc etc....
 
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The following is all pure opinion on my part and any similarity to real life, well you decide.

I think that ESPN is very much aware of their own situation as a business. They are a company that was founded approx 30 years ago now (a little more) which was founded on the concept of broadcasting basketball games that weren't showing up on the major networks. In the 30 years since, they've taken the business model that they came up with in that trailer parked in the dirt lot across from the access road to Lake Compounce from West Street, and they've built that same model up into a global sports news reporting and sports broadcasting platform.

THe problem they face, is that they never changed the model from what they came up with in that trailer. They simply keep adding channels, when they want to broadcast more content and/or reach new people, and they've farmed out regional broadcasting to affiliates and they for 3 decades have battled broadcasting companiers for access on each additional channel on their basic carrier packages for viewers, after first battling companies to carry ESPN on their basic package in the first place, rather than having to pay extra for additional espn channels. What movie was it - the dodgeball one - where the joke was the Ocho - espn 8.

ESPN people, I think, know that they can't keep adding channels. The online world, and the streaming world is the direction they've got to go now if they want to reach a wide range of people, there is no where else for them to go. The ESPN broadcasting model, works poorly for reaching regional, target audiences for sports broadcasts, especially when sports events are occuring simultaneously, and the online world doesn't seem to capable of doing that either, although the streaming of the NCAA tournament online seems to have gone really well for CBS this year.....but I wonder what productivity in office buildings cubicles in the country was like in March.....through the floor.....I bet......

basketball broadcasting and football broadcasting is not the same, and I can't begin to see how streaming online is going to fit into football, that's for the ESPN people to figure out. FOr basketball, it seems to be working for CBS, but in football, I only see it dilutes the potential viewership rather than increasing it. We'll see.


Because, when it comes to the actual business of sports and broadcasting, regional viewership is becoming extremely important.

All of that said, I believe that a year ago, the ACC(motivated by ESPN) simply had the intent of significantly weakening the Big East conference to strenghten it's own BASKETBALL presence on the east coast in competition with the Big East, and at the same time pad their own football conference against the movement occuring at the time. Nobody is telling me that PItt and Cuse were added to the ACC to strenghten the football league.

ESPN interest in weakening the big east would be to avoid the rise of competition in broadcasting in sports, as they've cornered nearly every major broadcasting realm in sports - with the model they created 32 years ago, AND they are very much aware of their business model deficiencies, and what the rise of competition may do to expose it.

I do believe that had Syracuse and UConn been invited to the ACC - we would have gone with Cuse, and the Big East would not have survived as an athletic league, never mind weakening, Buh-bye big east. But UConn got hung up in expansion committee for the ACC b/c of certain committee member's efforts from Chestnut Hill, and the ACC settled on Pitt.

Even still, the big east nearly died, and it appears that the major television networks have uncovered ESPN's weakness in the sports broadcasting world.

We'll see what ESPN comes up with for the Big EAst in September.
 

nelsonmuntz

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The Big 10 MIGHT add 2 teams in UVa and UNC if they were very, very hungry. They have analyzed Rutgers 10 ways from Sunday and the answer is a firm "no". They could have had Rutgers at any point in the last 8 years. They looked, but they didn't buy. Nothing has changed to make then want Rutgers.

The ACC will become very unstable if FSU and Clemson leave. Apparently Swofford is passing around a Grant of Rights for everyone to sign, which is part of the urgency in leaving now. If Clemson and FSU leave, I don't see a lot of interest in signing that document. No Grant of Rights, no renegotiated TV contract.
 

whaler11

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This isn't a few million. Of FromTheInside's representation about Tier 3 rights from about 20 pages back is correct, and looking at the potential revenue of the new playoff system, FSU and Clemson could be looking at upwards of $30 million a year in the Big 12 vs. $15MM in the ACC. they would make up their $20MM departure fee in just over a year.

I am not sure what ESPN's game is, but they gave the Big 12 a contract that was by all accounts a hunting license, with the ACC being the biggest target. They may be pulling out the top properties to park them in a better football league, and treat the rest of the ACC as a basketball league with a football annex, basically pricing hoops at $10MM a year and football at $5. The reality for Duke is the number is more like $18 and -$3. If the NACC doesn't have a credible football league, ESPN won't have to put up with Swofford's silly demands for more money.

Assuming no other additions or subtractions, the remaining ACC is a very good basketball league and clearly the 6th best football conference. Adding UConn and Rutgers won't change that either.

If their number is really 30 million and the ACC would be very lucky to get to 20, then it should happen quite quickly. If the difference is 5 million a year and it takes 4 years to pay the exit fee, I don't see it happening.

The problem with putting all the good programs in fewer leagues is that they cant all win 9-10 games a year which is what those fanbases expect. When everyone goes 8-5 they all damage themselves.

There also comes a point where when you exclude too many schools you shrink the total amount of people interested in the sport in general. If UConn and Rutgers and Maryland and a dozen other schools aren't at the table a good number of people lose interest.
 

whaler11

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The following is all pure opinion on
I think that ESPN is very much aware of their own situation as a business. They are a company that was founded approx 30 years ago now (a little more) whic



ESPN people, I think, know that they can't keep adding channels. The online world, and the streaming world is the direction they've got to go now if they want to reach a wide range of people,




Because, when it comes to the actual business of sports and broadcasting, regional viewership is becoming extremely important.

All of that said, I believe that a year ago, the ACC(motivated by ESPN) simply had the intent of significantly weakening the Big East conference to strenghten it's own BASKETBALL presence on the east coast in competition with the Big East, and at the same time pad their own football conference against the movement occuring at the time. Nobody is telling me that PItt and Cuse were added to the ACC to strenghten the football league.

ESPN interest in weakening the big east would be to avoid the rise of competition in broadcasting in sports, as they've cornered nearly every major broadcasting realm in sports - with the model they created 32 years ago, AND they are very much aware of their business model deficiencies, and what the rise of competition may do to expose it.

I do believe that had Syracuse and UConn been invited to the ACC - we would have gone with Cuse, and the Big East would not have survived as an athletic league, never mind weakening, Buh-bye big east. But UConn got hung up in expansion committee for the ACC b/c of certain committee member's efforts from Chestnut Hill, and the ACC settled on Pitt.

Even still, the big east nearly died, and it appears that the major television networks have uncovered ESPN's weakness in the sports broadcasting world.

We'll see what ESPN comes up with for the Big EAst in September.


I don't disagree that college sports is based on regional interest - it's why most of us care more about USCe than USC.

On a typical Saturday night ESPN has 4 games on. ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU. Who is better off if they used one channel and broadcasted those four games regionally?

The fans can watch all four. ESPN can charge carriers for four separate channels. Its better for the schools to allow their fans access to their games across the whole country.

Can you please describe the disadvantages of this? People can watch what they want, they can stagger the games so you can watch multiple endings. I don't have television feeding me BC/Virginia when I want to watch LSU/Mississippi or Oklahoma St/Baylor.

Who is regional coverage better for? The schools that people don't want to watch? Well if you stick me with a game I don't want to watch you risk me changing the station.

Hell the NCAA tournament has moved away from regional coverage and people love it - why would anyone want to go back in that direction?

As for where football fits online, I quite like espn3. I usually have a game on the laptop while I watch another on TV. My only access to the syndicated ACC game is through their website. I like NC State from my time living in Raleigh so I have an interest in many ACC games. i watched UConn-Baylor and UConn-Buffalo online. People seem to like streaming Sunday Ticket. It's only going to add to your audience if you get people watching on mobile devices. I'd watch games while I tailgate at Rentscher if I could - how is more options a bad thing?
 
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How does a television network make money? By selling advertising time. Everything else they can do for money is fluff. It's advertising time that's the key.

You have to ask yourself. How do I reach more people......not with sports.....with real time advertising........not DVR'd, not recorded........advertising on LIVE tv - that they need to watch.

That's the simple question that all of this sports broadcasting billion dollar contracts are about. The ability to reach the 18-49 male demographic with live advertising.

There's a big difference b/w the reach of cable television and the reach of networks that can go across public airwaves as well as digitally on cable, or online. Cox and ESPN were battling with cable companies as recently as January about the price of carrying ESPN on the basic tier packages and being dropped from basic tiers.

I was watching the NHL playoffs last night on NBCSports, and they're clearly making a move to the streaming world as well, as they were repeatedly advertising a streaming app to watch games.

THis info came out last week re: Comcast Sportsnet channels and NBC selling advertising time.

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvspy/nb...g-for-comcast-regional-sports-networks_b45595
 
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BTW: still can't believe that nobody got my..."we came from trailers"......post about ESPN. Oh well. Maybe nobody's reading.
 
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Crazy huh? i've been called crazy before.

See, Carl, not to be picky but most people use that as a badge of honor in conjunction with the example of where they were called crazy and were ultimately proven right. Most of us don't use being called crazy as a badge of honor without that example.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin ....
 

nelsonmuntz

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My prediction as of 4 pm EDT on 5/3:

If Big 12 goes to 12: Clemson and FSU
If Big 12 goes to 14: Louisville and....Miami or BYU.

Based on more rumors, and a couple of references in the mainstream media, I think Louisville is still high on the Big 12's list, but not in the same class with Clemson and FSU. Recent rumor is GTech doesn't want to go.

I think getting 2 teams will be enough of a challenge, and the Big 12 will stop there and see what happens. Louisville and Miami will both be there if the SEC or Big 10 raid the ACC. No need to grab them now.
 
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See, Carl, not to be picky but most people use that as a badge of honor in conjunction with the example of where they were called crazy and were ultimately proven right. Most of us don't use being called crazy as a badge of honor without that example.

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin ....


I wonder if your altruistic remark is empathetic or sympathetic. :)

As an expert in the law, I refer you to Luke 10:30-37.


There's a very important lesson to be applied in there to the intercollegiate landscape and the big east conference role in it, because football programs in the big east have been getting robbed and beaten up for a long time, while the priests passed by and did nothing, until their basketball conference became the robbed and beaten, left to die on the side of the road.
 
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My prediction as of 4 pm EDT on 5/3:

If Big 12 goes to 12: Clemson and FSU
If Big 12 goes to 14: Louisville and....Miami or BYU.

Based on more rumors, and a couple of references in the mainstream media, I think Louisville is still high on the Big 12's list, but not in the same class with Clemson and FSU. Recent rumor is GTech doesn't want to go.

I think getting 2 teams will be enough of a challenge, and the Big 12 will stop there and see what happens. Louisville and Miami will both be there if the SEC or Big 10 raid the ACC. No need to grab them now.


I think the next six months or so are going to be quite interesting. Comcast Sports networks have quietly been ponying up for as much intercollegiate, as well as minor league pro, localized, regional interest sports broadcasting as they possibly can in all 11, or 12 of their regional networks for a while now.

Connecticut, has been a testing ground for this, and by all accounts I can gather - which is all the same information that anyone with an internet hookup can find with google......and by everything I can gather, it's working, in generating localized advertisers paying for localized broadcasting time. Other regionally based networks (Fox, CBS affiliated) seem to be following suit, and scrambling to catch up to comcast in snatching up localized interest broadcasting opportunities in sports...

I think that the ESPN market bubble is going to burst, and somethign I read about a year ago, published from an interview with a high level CBS exec, always rings back to me....and his comments on all of the sports broadcasting ballooning of contracts.....was simply.....where is all this money to fund these contracts going to come from?

If that market bubble bursts, because the advertising money to fund those giant contracts that have been handed out simply dries up nationwide b/c the advertising money is getting funneled into regionalized broadcasts ...the hell that will break loose will make the conference shifting of 2011 look like childs play.

UConn, will be set up to withstand the storm, should somethign liek that happen, and so should our Big East partners.

Enough for today. Think about it all. Open up your eyes.
 

whaler11

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Carl -comcast just signed a 10 year deal that costs them 4.69 per sub for just espn Its 1.13 for the rest of their menu. They start at almost $72 per subscriber every year. Before they sell a single ad.

As of 2010 that was 99.5 million homes for both espn and espn2.

600 million dollars a month in carrier fees But you think networks make their money on advertising. Yeah you know their business better than they do. You may want to push your bubble prediction out a bit into the future.
 
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Interesting development this afternoon. ESPN moving quick to combat the regional network approach, with the cyberspace angle"TV Everywhere" to take the best regional approach they can with their business structure - and using what? Comcast cable system.

http://www.multichannel.com/article...h_Live_ESPN_Disney_TV_Everywhere_Services.php

Whaler - big difference b/w comcast cable corp based in philly and comcast sportsnet. Disney / Timewarner made the deal with comcast corp back in january to allow streaming services online to comcast subscripers of disney television products including espn, espn2, espnu, espndeportes, espnnews, espnclassic, espngoalline, espnbuzzerbeater, espn3d, espngameplan, espnfullcourt, and espn3......all of them available streaming on comcast cable systems.

Comcast corp is the country's largest provider of streaming services. Comcast corp is also owns 51% of NBCUniversal....

Take this info and do what you will with it. Read the article. ESPN isn't run by dumb people either, and they are moving on this concept of "TV Everywhere" as I type, b/c it's the only way they can target regionally to audiences, through streaming services. The cyberspace equivalent of adding another channel to the cable system to go with all those others. Shotgun approach.

Comcastsportsnet, Foxsports, they can regionally target sports audiences much more effectively, and more importantly, cheaper....and ESPN knows it.
 

whaler11

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A shotgun approach that allows them to start the year with 7 billion dollars without selling an ad. The owner of NBC Sports is paying them $6 a subscriber but is going to compete against them with the NHL, MLS and maybe the Big East.

Check the ESPN rating for the EPL this week. It was ridiculous The idea that what they are doing isn't working is idiotic. The idea that the fools at NBC are going to outwit them is laughable.

If only ESPN would be more regional in their coverage of events from Europe! Then they wouldn't pull 7 figure audiences on Tuesday afternoons.
 

whaler11

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Carl can you read your own article? Watchespn isn't new, just new to Comcast. Tv Everywhere isn't ESPN its disney kids channels.
 
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Good for them if they can get it. If that happens, you assume the ACC turns to UConn and RU. Do we go? I'd still have to say yes.

IMO definitely yes. If we said no and Rutgers and Cincy went to the ACC we would not be too happy. If there is such a thing as an alliance between schools, now is the time to form an alliance with RU.
 
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If that happens, you assume the ACC turns to UConn and RU. Do we go? I'd still have to say yes.
Do they go back to 14? Perhaps without Florida State (on the record as not wanting a basketball first school) and Clemson, they take UConn to settle the basketball-first schools. Roy Williams and Coach K were advocating for UConn's entrance, IIRC.
 
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