ACC

[Dann]

Was thinking the same thing.

The ACC's worst case scenario - includes UConn.

This also happens to be UConn's best case scenario.

false

uconns best situation is if the b16 does want to go east and we happen to get a look.

 

[Fishy]

I hear you - the same people that admonish some of us for not buying into the new conference want us to swallow that the ACC has somehow set in motion its own destruction.

Hell, they already destroyed us and if their TV contract is that bad, wait for the s*** sandwich the Big East is about to be served.

 

[Dann]

the b12 wants blood right now. tex and crew are pissed that the sec got atm. now the whole sec has a ticket to texas recruiting. the only way for tex and crew to get back at the sec is for them to paoch fsu/clem and open up the floodgates to southeast recruiting. the b12 and sec are quietly having a arms race.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I hear you - the same people that admonish some of us for not buying into the new conference want us to swallow that the ACC has somehow set in motion its own destruction.

Hell, they already destroyed us and if their TV contract is that bad, wait for the s*** sandwich the Big East is about to be served.

I didn't realize it was a contest, or that because I believe the Big East will still make a few dollars on the next TV deal that I am not allowed to point out what is obvious to just about everyone. It is not some tremendous insight to note that the ACC has some serious membership issues right now, and our visiting "insider", who hates me and has been cyber stalking me, just agreed with pretty much everything I have been saying here in the Big 12 thread.

We should have a separate board for Whaler, yourself, a few others, where you can relentlessly trash the Big East, point out how it is worse to every other conference, including the Sun Belt, and throw a pity party for the demise of UConn's athletic program.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

the b12 wants blood right now. tex and crew are pissed that the sec got atm. now the whole sec has a ticket to texas recruiting. the only way for tex and crew to get back at the sec is for them to paoch fsu/clem and open up the floodgates to southeast recruiting. the b12 and sec are quietly having a arms race.

It's not the Big 12, it's ESPN. ESPN saw this arms race building and also saw its rights fees skyrocketing. I can't be the first person who noticed that the right move for the ACC was to merge into the Big East and go to another network or split the media rights. ESPN saw the same fact pattern, played out the Game Theory, and realized they would be better off destroying the Big East and the ACC because that would enable them to pay fewer teams the top level rights fees.

So ESPN went to the ACC and offered them $1-2MM extra per school to take Syracuse and Pitt, which effectively gutted the Big East. At the time, I said that was a stupid move for the ACC, they should have gotten ESPN to get them to $18-20MM/school/year or it was a mistake to raid the Big East. I got shouted down on this board, but it turns out I was 100% right. Not only did the ACC get peanuts for destroying the Big East, but they couldn't even get ESPN to sign a new deal with them. The Big 12, which had bigger membership changes in the interim, has already gotten a spanking new contract with jaw-dropping revenue increases, and a structure that is very expansion friendly. ESPN cut this deal in months with the Big 12 yet has not renegotiated the ACC deal yet.

At $20-25MM/school/year, Louisville and Cincinnati are not the likely targets for Big 12 expansion, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech and VTech are. It is also worth noting that Mike Slive had said he could get to 16 teams very quickly, and the SEC is still re-working their deal. I suspect that once it is resolved, UNC and either VTech or UVa are gone. ESPN has not re-signed the ACC deal because they know the membership of that conference is about to go through a big change. The Big East and ACC got played by ESPN, and both are going to be road kill.

I get no joy out of this outcome, because like most of you, see that there is going to be a gigantic revenue gap between those in the Top 4 leagues and those in the rest. UConn will never be able to keep good coaches or maintain success like it did the last 25 years. That sun is setting forever. It makes me angrier because idiots like Swofford who thought they were players were really the played, and created this situation.

 

[Carl Spackler]

The sky isn't falling people.

It's unrealistic to expect that a broadcasting revenue stream for the Big East come 2013 is going to leapfrog any of the other existing power conference revenue streams around broadcasting. You never know what a bidding war can result in, and bidding war for the Big East is what ESPN did not want.

It's also unrealistic to expect that the Big East won't significantly upgrade our current revenue streams through the conference via broadcasting, and maintain our presence on the top side of the revenue gap in college athletics.

There are a couple of things that are key, questions to address.

#1. How valueable is live television broadcasting?
#2. How many hours of live sports television can be broadcast per day/per week/...etc.
#3. How many of those live sports broadcasts can be put in primetime locally for either a home or visiting team?
#4. How many broadcasts can go out nationally coast to coast in primetime?
#5. How accessible will those broadcasts be to local TV's?

last question brings you to the ability of the networks to deliver the product. Are they proactive in the digital / handheld device market - which is going to be part of all of this in the future? Are channels for viewing available on basic programming packages, or will people need to upgrade their TV package to access the programming?

It all starts with #1. The value of live sports programming, which is going to target that demographic that is highly desireable for advertisers, is unprecedented.

Does anyone really think that ESPN is not interested in retaining the Big East? They didn't want a bidding war for the Big East, b/c it was, and is, terribly undervalued, and a bidding war is going to drive it up to market value, and possibly beyond. They'd rather destroy it outright, which UConn & Cuse to the ACC would have done, or attempt to weaken the Big East and create internal tension to the point of it's membership self-dissolving, and going their own ways, which nearly happened, several times over the past 30 years.

ESPN was willing to pay what it was going to pay, with the Syracuse and Pitt markets and WVU markets in 2011. Big East walked out and waited for the open market. The ACC and ESPN reacted. Basketball took a hit, with Syracuse leaving, but in return, we've added Boise State football, Houston and SMU markets, etc. etc.... which are salivating at earning the right to compete with the other Texas schools in the big leagues. San Diego St football, which has a football tradition that is nothing to poo poo, when you look at the innovation, coaching, players, that have come out of there.

The big east is still tied to Notre Dame, and the Big EAst still owns ownership of the most valueable advertising real estate in the country - the northeast corridor.

But the sky is falling. So they say.

UConn needs to do four things:
#1. Continue build our own product to the best level it can be. Grow our endowment to the levels it should be. Contribute to the uconn foundation if you're an alumni. They're upgrading all the facilities and the school needs to continually be state of the art academically and athletically.

Check.


#2. recruit like hell, keep admissions standards high, win games and get nationally ranked, and stay nationally ranked, academically and athletically.

Check.

#3. Maintain affiliation athletically with whatever athletic association owns our marketing demographic in the northeast US including New York and Boston, and remain tied to Notre Dame athletics however convoluted it may be, as long as they remain indepedant in football.

Check.

Oh yea - and win games. Win big games, and get nationally ranked in football.

Who knows what the future of the big east may bring, but in the future, if the Jesuit backbone of colleges on the east coast isn't going to be able to sustain itself as a power athletic association.....I"d rather be attracting the likes of the Big 10 state university alliance of schools than the ACC or SEC.

We build our school up the right way, academically and athletically - and that's exactly where will be, if the Jesuit tradition of athletics can't hold up in the future.

Either way, UConn is going to be just fine, and we don't need to sign over our broadcasting souls to any single broadcasting company to do it.

 

[junglehusky]

Carl... you missed:

How many eyeballs will actually tune in to watch the game? What are the demographics of the audience, and their disposable income that they're willing to spend on products advertised during those games? How rabid are they about the schools they are watching, and how does the league they play in and the success of the teams affect those advertising demos?

Do advertisers want an audience that's a mile wide and an inch deep? Because that's what they're going to get with the SMUs and UCFs of the world.

 

[bristol rises]

And will our fan base pay as much for tickets (and contribute) to watch games vs. Central Florida and the other ilk as they would for regular matchups with U of Virginia, North Carolina, Syracuse? Same goes for corprate sponsorships.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

this thread is not dead yet?

 

[Dann]

this thread is not dead yet?

mets has alot of catching up to do for the cliff notes.

 

[Carl Spackler]

And will our fan base pay as much for tickets (and contribute) to watch games vs. Central Florida and the other ilk as they would for regular matchups with U of Virginia, North Carolina, Syracuse? Same goes for corprate sponsorships.

I think our fan base will continue to pay as much for tickets, and contribute - to watch UConn.

 

[SAMCRO]

The leadership at WVU, SU, Pitt, and TCU all disagree that their schools will be better off in the NBE with its potential TV deal. How do I know this? They all decided to go elsewhere.

The leadership at UConn, UL, UC, and RU (and probably USF) all disagree that their schools will be better off remaining in the NNBE with its potential TV deal. How do I know this? They are all out "begging harder" to get into the ACC/B1G/B12 and be elsewhere.

UConn will be okay in this NNBE, we'll survive, possibly thrive, and we will eventually end up in a new league; but don't try and tell me that this new league or next contract is going to be the mega-deal which all other leagues will be envious.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Carl... you missed:

How many eyeballs will actually tune in to watch the game? What are the demographics of the audience, and their disposable income that they're willing to spend on products advertised during those games? How rabid are they about the schools they are watching, and how does the league they play in and the success of the teams affect those advertising demos?

Do advertisers want an audience that's a mile wide and an inch deep? Because that's what they're going to get with the SMUs and UCFs of the world.

All very good questions. THere's plenty of information out there, to show that your conclusion is wrong though, and that the potential for growth is definitely there, and in many cases, (i.e. houston, san diego, orlando) is already there, and just waiting to be tapped.

 

[Marty Jackson]

The only thing I agree with Carl Spackler on is the potential growth within the Northeast for interest in college football.
For whatever the reasons, CFB has never become the dominant past-time in the northeast like it has down south. But that means while the southern markets are already saturated, the northeast remain untapped potential. Maybe not next year or the next five. But these TV contracts are 10-15 years in length. A lot can happen in that time.

 

[frankthetank]

The only thing I agree with Carl Spackler on is the potential growth within the Northeast for interest in college football.
For whatever the reasons, CFB has never become the dominant past-time in the northeast like it has down south. But that means while the southern markets are already saturated, the northeast remain untapped potential. Maybe not next year or the next five. But these TV contracts are 10-15 years in length. A lot can happen in that time.

Well, not quite. There's a big-time cultural difference where lots of people that didn't attend SEC schools in the South still follow such SEC schools. This is also an area of the country that's adding population rapidly. So, by no means are they any more saturated with respect to college football than the Boston market could get more saturated with respect to pro sports. A large issue is that state flagships receive less support (whether financial or emotional) in the Northeast compared to any other region in the country. This goes back generations where so much of the focus on college education in the Northeast is on the Ivy League schools and other elite private universities. That simply isn't as prevalent elsewhere and, by extension, translates to broader sports support for the flagships that dominate the BCS landscape.

Related to the focus on private schools in the Northeast, no conference has any real critical mass of alums in any of the Northeastern markets. Those alums might be in places like NYC and Boston in sheer numbers, but it's VERY low in market penetration. Compare this to LA and Chicago, which are the #2 and #3 TV markets in the country. Even though they're large pro sports markets, they still have high proportions of alums SPECIFICALLY from the Pac-12 and Big Ten schools, respectively, which means those conferences truly deliver those markets. It becomes self-perpetuating because those Pac-12 and Big Ten schools send literally tens of thousands of alums to those markets every single year. NYC gets tons of college grads, but they're dispersed among so many different conferences and so many different schools that no single conference (or school) can get traction. You can't go anywhere in Chicago without running into multitudes of Big Ten grads (or even just from the University of Illinois), but you're no more likely to walk into a Big East grad on Wall Street as you would a Big Ten or ACC grad. That's a demographic issue that probably won't ever be resolved (and why conferences might like the idea of adding the NYC market in theory, but largely have determined that it's fool's gold).

As a result, it's as tough for college sports to gain traction in the Northeast as it is for hockey to gain traction in the South. In theory, it makes sense for college conferences to go after the Northeast market just like it made sense for the NHL to add Sun Belt teams, yet they're pushing up against much broader cultural factors. It also doesn't help that the one school that is a massive draw in the Northeast (Penn State) happens to play in the Big Ten.

UConn actually does a fairly good job of delivering its home state considering it's in the Northeast, which is why it has long-term value, although the state of Connecticut alone likely isn't enough right now. The main issue is simply the youth of its football program. All of those years of Division I-AA football don't count in the eyes of the power conferences. In their minds, UConn football is as much of an upstart as USF. Rutgers has a terrible football history, but it's at least a long football history. From an outside perspective, that's what UConn has to resolve, and there might not be anything other than the passage of time itself to change that.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Well, not quite. There's a big-time cultural difference where lots of people that didn't attend SEC schools in the South still follow such SEC schools. This is also an area of the country that's adding population rapidly. So, by no means are they any more saturated with respect to college football than the Boston market could get more saturated with respect to pro sports. A large issue is that state flagships receive less support (whether financial or emotional) in the Northeast compared to any other region in the country. This goes back generations where so much of the focus on college education in the Northeast is on the Ivy League schools and other elite private universities. That simply isn't as prevalent elsewhere and, by extension, translates to broader sports support for the flagships that dominate the BCS landscape.

Related to the focus on private schools in the Northeast, no conference has any real critical mass of alums in any of the Northeastern markets. Those alums might be in places like NYC and Boston in sheer numbers, but it's VERY low in market penetration. Compare this to LA and Chicago, which are the #2 and #3 TV markets in the country. Even though they're large pro sports markets, they still have high proportions of alums SPECIFICALLY from the Pac-12 and Big Ten schools, respectively, which means those conferences truly deliver those markets. It becomes self-perpetuating because those Pac-12 and Big Ten schools send literally tens of thousands of alums to those markets every single year. NYC gets tons of college grads, but they're dispersed among so many different conferences and so many different schools that no single conference (or school) can get traction. You can't go anywhere in Chicago without running into multitudes of Big Ten grads (or even just from the University of Illinois), but you're no more likely to walk into a Big East grad on Wall Street as you would a Big Ten or ACC grad. That's a demographic issue that probably won't ever be resolved (and why conferences might like the idea of adding the NYC market in theory, but largely have determined that it's fool's gold).

As a result, it's as tough for college sports to gain traction in the Northeast as it is for hockey to gain traction in the South. In theory, it makes sense for college conferences to go after the Northeast market just like it made sense for the NHL to add Sun Belt teams, yet they're pushing up against much broader cultural factors. It also doesn't help that the one school that is a massive draw in the Northeast (Penn State) happens to play in the Big Ten.

UConn actually does a fairly good job of delivering its home state considering it's in the Northeast, which is why it has long-term value, although the state of Connecticut alone likely isn't enough right now. The main issue is simply the youth of its football program. All of those years of Division I-AA football don't count in the eyes of the power conferences. In their minds, UConn football is as much of an upstart as USF. Rutgers has a terrible football history, but it's at least a long football history. From an outside perspective, that's what UConn has to resolve, and there might not be anything other than the passage of time itself to change that.

This is commonly perpetuated misconception. College football did once rule in the northeast, and in new york city. I suspect you may not live in, or near NYC. If' I'm wrong, I apologize. The sheer population of the area in such a close space is hard for people to grasp. There are plenty, plenty of college grads from everywhere, true, but the conclusion that you can't get "market penetration" because of it is wrong. The only thing that needs to be done is a concerted effort to tap into the market.

THe big east conference could have done it for 20 years, but a guy that was in charge was sittin with his thumb up his rear and focused on basketball. Now, we've got more difficult time to "penetrate the market" - I like that......with programs that aren't local to the northeast because of it. The only reason that college football hasn't gained a major foothold in the city since the mid 1980s after the scholarship, and intercollegiate division situation finally shook out after the 1960s, is because nobody's really tried. Manhattan and the five boroughs have enough people to support not one, but two professional franchises in every major professional sport, and are still looking for stuff to fill up the sports media world....

A football post season game hadn't been held in NYC prior to the Pinstripe bowl for many years, and the Garden State bowl or whatever it was - didn't cut the mustard, there was no backing to it.

But the ownership and management of the Yankees and Giants are interested again in college football, and need a conference to support it. The big east is it, and I hope to have our first championship game played in the Bronx in 2013.

Although the Ivy's get louder every year about taking back the sport they created, it's doubtful you'll see them start to offer athletic scholarships again, but the Patriot league just voted this year to start scholarships again, and will soon be up to 60 per program, and football has been coming back

 

[Carl Spackler]

and...oh yeah.......there's something else that UConn football can do other than pass time, and that's win games.

 

[Carl Spackler]

FYI - for statistics sake. The population of New York City boroughs is accepted to be approx 8,750,000 or so.

THe entire populations of Alabama and Louisiana is less than that.

If you extend out to the surrounding counties immediately bordering NYC in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York State, the population in an area that takes less than 2 hours to drive across (without traffic) is greater than the combined populations of Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama and Arkansas.

THat's our market, and we've got an incredible amount of growth potential, and I didn't even talk about the actual sizes of the connecticut and boston markets.

We've just got to be part of a league that's actually focused on growing football interest here. We haven't had it with the big east for the frist 20 years of football in the conference, and New York simply hasn't had a college football league playing championships in the city at the highest level in 4 decades and counting.

I really hope to change that next year.

 

[whaler11]

I think our fan base will continue to pay as much for tickets, and contribute - to watch UConn.

Anyone with 2 eyes can tell you this isn't reality. Unless you think years and years of evidence at Rentschler, XL and Gampel isn't enough to make this claim ridiculous.

 

[whaler11]

All very good questions. THere's plenty of information out there, to show that your conclusion is wrong though, and that the potential for growth is definitely there, and in many cases, (i.e. houston, san diego, orlando) is already there, and just waiting to be tapped.

Yeah, Houston and Orlando haven't been tapped at all by Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami and South Florida. It's like they never knew football existed in those two cities.

 

[RS9999X]

. I can't be the first person who noticed that the right move for the ACC was to merge into the Big East and go to another network or split the media rights. ....... Not only did the ACC get peanuts for destroying the Big East, but they couldn't even get ESPN to sign a new deal with them. The Big 12, which had bigger membership changes in the interim, has already gotten a spanking new contract with jaw-dropping revenue increases, The Big East and ACC got played by ESPN, and both are going to be road kill.
.

The move all along is concentration much like the NFL/AFL mergers and NBA/ABA.

74 Div I BCS teams is too many (6 BCS conferences with 12 teams each and ND/BYU).

The real numbers they are shooting for are much smaller. It might start as 16 teams in the SEC and B12 and 12 teams in the PAC and BiG. 56 teams plus ND and BYU.

The impetus for four 16-team regional conferences might actually be two 12-team conferences and two 16-team conferences

Basketball adds some drama: -- Of the Top 26 revenue programs in Div I Basketball (the ones that earn more than the $10.5 million average) 5 are BE teams. 3 are now gone leaving Lousiville and Marquette (safe to say Marquette is not going anywhere). UConn is bubbling under the top 26


In the ACC , UNC and Duke are the basketball guns with NC State a respectable 24th--just slightly above average.

Anyway you slice it if NC State and Lousiville go that leaves Duke, UNC, and UConn as the last football playing teams in the East that get mentioned--because of their basketball.

Then there's the ACC Football Leftovers: if we see the SEC 16 and B16 and assume Louisville and BYU sign on then it's likely the SEC and B12 cherry pick FSU, NC State, Clemson, and VTech--one team from each coastal state.

That doesn't leave much in the ACC or BE. And you know Miami and Georgia Tech and UNC and Virginia will be begging harder along with Duke and UConn and Rutgers and Cincy. And BC. And SU. And Pitt.

You know there's some media consultant somewhere pitching this proposal.--SEC16 ad B16.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The leadership at WVU, SU, Pitt, and TCU all disagree that their schools will be better off in the NBE with its potential TV deal. How do I know this? They all decided to go elsewhere.

The leadership at UConn, UL, UC, and RU (and probably USF) all disagree that their schools will be better off remaining in the NNBE with its potential TV deal. How do I know this? They are all out "begging harder" to get into the ACC/B1G/B12 and be elsewhere.

UConn will be okay in this NNBE, we'll survive, possibly thrive, and we will eventually end up in a new league; but don't try and tell me that this new league or next contract is going to be the mega-deal which all other leagues will be envious.

I get why TCU and WVU left. The Big East ship had already hit an iceberg. Syracuse and Pitt are a little more puzzling. I wonder if they were promised much bigger dollars, or were afraid that WVU would bail. Either way, Syracuse and Pitt's stupidity will end up damaging quite a few programs.

As for your last paragraph, really? You have to come up with more realistic straw men. Nobody is saying that anyone will be envious of the Big East's deal.

I just don't subscribe to Whaler or FTI's theory that the Big East will make less per team than the last contract.

 

[RS9999X]

In many way further consolidaiton helps UConn.

The prevailing logic is the SEC wants to add 2 new states Virginia and North Carolina. It has a presence in KY, Georgia and Florida and doesn't want to repeat the Vandy/Ole Miss types of expansion. Likely V Techand NC State.

That leaves Florida, Kentucky and Georgia for the B12 as new states. FSU, Louisville and Clemson.


New ACC after the dust clears:
North
Rutgers
UConn
Cincy
SU
Pitt
BC
Maryland



South
Miami
UNC
Duke
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Wake
USF

Exiting
SEC: V Techand NC State.
B12: FSU, Louisville and Clemson.

 

[kibblesnbits]

In many way further consolidaiton helps UConn.

The prevailing logic is the SEC wants to add 2 new states Virginia and North Carolina. It has a presence in KY, Georgia and Florida and doesn't want to repeat the Vandy/Ole Miss types of expansion. Likely V Techand NC State.

That leaves Florida, Kentucky and Georgia for the B12 as new states. FSU, Louisville and Clemson.

When did Clemson move to Georgia? Your plan also leaves the Big 12 with 13 teams. Who is the 14th? BYU?

 

[RS9999X]

When did Clemson move to Georgia? Your plan also leaves the Big 12 with 13 teams. Who is the 14th? BYU?

I wouldn't take any of it too seriously. Yeah BYU or they look to another ACC team

In reality it looks like ESPN is going to sign the status quo as we know it. the B12 got what they want: $20 mil per team.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Yeah, Houston and Orlando haven't been tapped at all by Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Florida, Florida State, Miami and South Florida. It's like they never knew football existed in those two cities.

last time I checked, none of those schools were actually in houston or orlando..........

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I wouldn't take any of it too seriously. Yeah BYU or they look to another ACC team

In reality it looks like ESPN is going to sign the status quo as we know it. the B12 got what they want: $20 mil per team.

I may have agreed with you on the ESPN status quo idea if the new Big 12 contract didn't seem so expansion friendly. And the number is more than $20MM per school for the Big 12. The ACC has to be freaking out right now, because Cincinnati and Louisville are not even among the Top 5 targets for the Big 12. After BYU, all the best targets are in the ACC.

 

[MattMang23]

last time I checked, none of those schools were actually in houston or orlando..........

So a specific school actually has to be in a specific city for people there to watch them?

Gee, it's a wonder how Notre Dame got to be so popular considering the size of South Bend.

Do you seriously believe what you type?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

It's going to be crazy one day when the East Rutherford Giants finally recapture the NYC market. Can't believe they ever left...

 

[whaler11]

last time I checked, none of those schools were actually in houston or orlando..........

Last I checked, UConn wasn't in New York City but that didn't stop you from writing 5,000 words on the population.

God, are you really this insane?