nelsonmuntz
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We have no idea what the conferences are going to look like in 10 years, but I think there will be less stability going forward than there has been historically.
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We have no idea what the conferences are going to look like in 10 years, but I think there will be less stability going forward than there has been historically.
Maybe. I really think Utah/BYU, Central Florida, Colorado, Iowa State, etc is going to age badly in a world where there is no PAC money ESPN wants to get rid of. I’m also doubtful all of Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, Duke, VPI, NCSU will have a landing spot. I think the East Coast leftovers will likely be a better base than Arizona State and Kansas State.
Ideally though you’d likely take the top 6-8 of the ACC and the top 4-6 of the Big XII. But Big XII goes through GOR pains first.
Interesting link:
Here are the once and future schools that spent time with P5 media money:
Notre Dame- $829 million in revenue from 2017-2021
FSU- $779 m
Louisville- $679 m
Kansas- $617 m
Clemson- $607 m
Duke- $592 m
TCU- $592 m
Miami- $578 m
Virginia- $554 m
Arizona State- $536 m
UNC- $532 m
Baylor- $514 m
Pitt- $513 m
Arizona- $505 m
Virginia Tech- $464 m
Syracuse- $462 m
NC State- $449 m
Colorado- $444 m
Oklahoma State- $443 m
Kansas State- $439 m
Utah- $435 m
Texas Tech- $430 m
BC- $425 m
Georgia Tech- $410 m
Wake Forest- $408 m
Iowa State- $391 m
ACC aligned average- $552 m
BXII avg- $439m
If an exodus of UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson happened, the ACC-aligned avg- $528 m
Really the ACC properties only start suffering in comparison to the BXII if you imagine Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, VPI, and NC State also find homes.
Here are the once and future schools that spent time with P5 media money:
Notre Dame- $829 million in revenue from 2017-2021
FSU- $779 m
Louisville- $679 m
Kansas- $617 m
Clemson- $607 m
Duke- $592 m
TCU- $592 m
Miami- $578 m
Virginia- $554 m
Arizona State- $536 m
UNC- $532 m
Baylor- $514 m
Pitt- $513 m
Arizona- $505 m
Virginia Tech- $464 m
Syracuse- $462 m
NC State- $449 m
Colorado- $444 m
Oklahoma State- $443 m
Kansas State- $439 m
Utah- $435 m
Texas Tech- $430 m
BC- $425 m
Georgia Tech- $410 m
Wake Forest- $408 m
Iowa State- $391 m
ACC aligned average- $552 m
BXII avg- $439m
If an exodus of UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson happened, the ACC-aligned avg- $528 m
Really the ACC properties only start suffering in comparison to the BXII if you imagine Miami, Notre Dame, Duke, VPI, and NC State also find homes.
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Today yes. Tomorrow?
As always, going to come down to pecking order.
when we see Big or Sec poaching from each other, we’ll know we have a crowned P1.
Until then, these two conferences will poach the remaining value in ACC and Big12.
Depending on what schools they take next will determine dogfight for P3.
SEC has been very deliberate in expansion, going after specific football powers in a specific geography. Big has expanded markets and geography.
If ACC can keep loss to 4 schools, it survives and probably plucks some Big12 schools: Cincy and WVU. 5 schools gets dicey. 6 or more to Sec or Big and ACC is toast
And again, as of now, the Big XII will be first on the chopping block. Kansas has desired BIG forever. And this would be BIG's one shot to dive into Texas or Arizona, or even the SEC to give Mizzou/Kentucky a partner with the Jayhawks.
nelsonmuntz
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When you see dollars like this, you have to ask why no one has sued the P4/ESPN/Fox for collusion in restraint of trade. The only reason these schools are getting this much money is because they are colluding with each other and against every other school. This is a simple, textbook anti-trust case in a segment of the market where the powers that be lose almost every time they are taken to court, and just got their butt kicked in the NIL case. What are schools like Oregon State and Washington State waiting for? At some point, not suing becomes a breach of fiduciary duty by those schools' leadership.
I am sure they have threatened lawsuits, because the G5 will get paid really well out of the CFP, and the majors wouldn't do that out of the goodness of their hearts. Maybe the shakedown is worth more than the lawsuit, and that is why no one has sued. But the dollars are starting to get really big, and I think they will shrink in streaming, meaning a lawsuit is worth more today than it will be worth in the future.
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When has more competition resulted in lower prices?
nelsonmuntz
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If Washington State was a private business and this happened, the CEO would be at serious risk of getting sued for breach of fiduciary duty if he did nothing. CEOs are not allowed to unilaterally decide they do not want to protect their business and shareholders because they do not want to rock the boat.
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Oh my Lord. Please take an Econ class.
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Not in 2036.
The Big XII has to get to 2036. Who knew Colorado would be what effectively ended a century-old conference. Anyone can bring down a conference when a GOR isn't involved.
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I'm going to get out of this stable canoe and step aboard a post-iceberg Titanic because it's more luxurious ... for the next 30 minutes.
Big XII isn’t stable. They are chock full of G5s. Kansas, Arizona, and Oklahoma State will at minimum be sending out feelers in a few years. They were given a lifeline as the PAC was destroyed and the transition to streaming is still in flux. But in the cold light of day, I can’t imagine Colorado, Central Florida, BYU/Utah will ever not look like panic moves.
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The B12 schools aint going to the B10 or the SEC so I dont know who they're sending out feelers to.
I think the next BXII contract will be enough to force some of those programs to send out distress signals to anyone receiving. Again, someone like Syracuse would be in the top half of the Big XII in revenue earned the last 5 years.
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From a UConn perspective, The ACC is better. More regional opponents= more interest from your fan base. From a TV dollar perspective, I'm not so sure. Especially if we are talking about an ACC minus Clemson, FSU, UNC & UVA. That league might draw worse than a 35-year-old rerun of Murder She Wrote. If we switch to a streaming model, do things get much better? While Iowa State, K State, Kansas, and OSU might be low population states, they have dedicated fanbases that will pay to see their teams play. The ACC has a handful of schools whose fans probably would, and a larger amount that will go the way of Cal and Stanford fans. I'll go see us play our rival, after that if I can find the game with minimal effort I might watch. A Kansas Basketball Fan or KSU Football Fan isn't going to do that.
I think UConn fans are very focused in on the BE/ACC and have a proper understanding of where they fit in the hierarchy of things. But I think the Big XII teams are more distant so you don't have a grasp on them. For visualization, here is the Big XII lineup if put into East Coast terms based on revenue earned from 2017-2021.
East Carolina, Temple, Temple, UConn, UConn, BC, BC, NC State, NC State, NC State, NC State, Pitt, Pitt, UNC, Duke, Clemson.
In a world where ESPN isn't burning their PAC money because the PAC turned them down, the market will be far more critical and unforgiving. The Big XII's hope is FSU finds the key to solve the GOR riddle.
East Carolina, Temple, Temple, UConn, UConn, BC, BC, NC State, NC State, NC State, NC State, Pitt, Pitt, UNC, Duke, Clemson.
In a world where ESPN isn't burning their PAC money because the PAC turned them down, the market will be far more critical and unforgiving. The Big XII's hope is FSU finds the key to solve the GOR riddle.
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Why? Because they get big TV ratings when they play, which means $$$ for the network. Once we have a successful football program—and/or maybe a superstar player that people want to watch—we might get invited to the cool people parties, too.
We’ve all looked at the channel guide on a Saturday morning and scrolled down to find some games to record for viewing later that day. Which ones did you find yourself recording? Probably LSU v Auburn. Maybe Notre Dame v Michigan St. Perhaps Penn St v Wisconsin. Then USC v Oregon as the late night choice. But what about Western KY v Bowling Green? or USF v Tulane? Did you save those games? How about UConn v Fresno St? Yes!! We all saved UConn v Fresno St. But while others around the country tuned into ND v Mich St, most went scrolling right past UConn v Fresno St just as you did with Western Ky v Bowling Green. You likely also skipped over Colorado vs anyone last year but I bet you don’t this fall. If you want to know which games get the most eyeballs just look in the mirror at your own viewing preferences.
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When you think about it...programs have some reponsibility for their funding...the media contract is only a part of revenue...and for some top ranked (in five year funding) programs less than 40% of the summed total.
Georgia Tech gets the same media payout as FSU....yet FSU was #8 in five year revenue and GT was #59...
Ohio State ranked #1 and Purdue ranked #42...under same media contract.
Programs that have invested over the years in building a program and brand, robust booster programs, etc will have more revenue.
Georgia Tech gets the same media payout as FSU....yet FSU was #8 in five year revenue and GT was #59...
Ohio State ranked #1 and Purdue ranked #42...under same media contract.
Programs that have invested over the years in building a program and brand, robust booster programs, etc will have more revenue.
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Because they cannot prove collusion,
Has the Big Ten colluded with the SEC? No. They are competing.
Have any of the P-5 colluded with another conference? No. They are competing
Have Fox and ESPN colluded? No. They are competing,
So, no "classic anti-trust case.
Has the Big Ten colluded with Fox? No. They have contracted.
Has the SEC colluded with ESPN? No. they have contracted.
ESPN and Fox both contract with other teams and conferences in addition to the SEC and the Big . They haven't shut anybody out. No I don't agree that this is a "textbook anti-trust case" at all.
BC is significantly ahead of us..and still would be if we had p5 TV $$.... surprised by how much. Did not realize how valuable their product was.
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I’m not sure there is anything left in Big12 that Big or SEC would want.
Maybe AZ, CO, or Utah for Big. Maybe Kansas too but their football isn’t much better than UConn. I don’t see TT, Baylor or TCU as targets. Don’t really fit Big profile. Not a fit for SEC either
That is one advantage Big 12 has right now. Most are P3 level schools and they know it.
They aren’t committed to one conference with eyes on another.
Possibly. But again, the ACC could come in with more money and a conference network to monetize the tier 3 content. I think what the ACC is offering in 2032 and what the BXII is offered could be significant in favor of the ACC. Time will tell, too many moving pieces to forecast. But the Big XII is definitely not out of the woods by any stretch. Most of those new additions are going to be suboptimal with the next contract.