ACC options

[Kolumbo]

It's silly because that isn't how it works. Every school used to sell their own rights. Nobody made squat. It wasn't until they started relinquishing the rights to the conference and negotiating collectively that the TV deals started growing. That, in turn, drove expansion and contracting among the conferences. They are all worth more together than they would be individually.

So the question is never "Is X school worth $Y", because the answer to that is always no. The question is "does adding this particular school to the existing ecosystem we have raise the aggregate value of that ecosystem". In the case of USC and UCLA for example, UCLA is mostly meh at football and is above average at basketball. Big market, sure and lots of alumni. But the value for the B1G comes from those old Big Ten/Pac 10 ties and the Rose bowl. Big Ten fans value those matchup highly. Much more than SEC fans would. That drives ratings, as an Indiana fan tunes in to watch Ohio State vs USC.

Could Kansas raise the value of the B1G enough? No, I don't think so. Could it in the SEC? Maybe yes. Now do UNC and UVA, when it comes to the B1G I think the answer is still no. SEC? Maybe yes. Florida State? They think the answer is yes, but I'm betting that for the B1G it is no (SEC is yes). It is close, but B1G fans don't really care about FSU, they might care more about Miami. The most rational SEC expansion, if it came, would probably be FSU, Clemson, UNC and Kansas.

The ACC has blinders on with UConn, because the answer to the ecosystem question is yes for UConn in the ACC. We are a team that moves the needle with fans of every school except FSU.

So many comments everywhere but this guy had a similar take:

"In theory everything hinges on the viability of Fox/B1G stealing a bunch of teams, it's not necessarily why would they just pay us more, it depends on ESPN assessing whether or not FSU and others can dissolve the ACC and ESPN loses FSU and others completely to another network. Also, it's not FSU by itself in a vacuum in the ACC and then by itself in the SEC. You're comparing games like FSU vs Wake (total profit of money in - money out) compared to FSU vs South Carolina (total profit of money in - money out). ESPN can crunch the numbers and say we have 6 useless games of FSU vs ACC nobodies or we can have FSU vs UT, OU, LSU, UGa, etc al. Same thing for Clemson. If they crunch the numbers and say ESPN will make more profit even if we pay those schools an extra $40 million each to change sides then it makes sense.

Not sure why nobody talks about switching to the SEC like this. Imagine ESPN making Jimbo and A&M play in Tallahassee on Labor Day weekend to open 2025 and the ratings that would create, now you might understand why ESPN might actually make more money that way."

Noles News: FSU to officially remain in ACC through at least 2024, ESPN puts 7 Seminoles on top 100 list

All the latest in Florida State Seminoles sports

www.tomahawknation.com

 

[Kolumbo]

Gavin, from The Day. Nice.
FSU getting out of the ACC is probably UConn's only hope of joining a conference any time soon. Even if it ends up being with the ACC remnants.

 

[upstater]

I think size of the conference will take over and will result in ACC’s demise. ACC doesn’t have enough quality like SEC does in football to demand big dollars. In Basketball, ACC still thinks they’re #1 conference and they probably 4 or 5.

??
I can't figure out what you're saying here. We were talking about the B1G taking B12 schools and now the conversation shifts to 2 totally different conferences.

For the record, I still think the ACC is the best bball conference with the SEC being 2nd. But it's certainly not each and every year. Last year, the BE was clearly the best conference with the B12 being 2nd.

Clearly, the B1G is now the 5th best conference.

 

[upstater]

Northwestern wouldn’t

several of those schools wouldn't, including Iowa and Nebraska. I know for a fact there is huge Nebraska regret in the B1G

 

[upstater]

So many comments everywhere but this guy had a similar take:

"In theory everything hinges on the viability of Fox/B1G stealing a bunch of teams, it's not necessarily why would they just pay us more, it depends on ESPN assessing whether or not FSU and others can dissolve the ACC and ESPN loses FSU and others completely to another network. Also, it's not FSU by itself in a vacuum in the ACC and then by itself in the SEC. You're comparing games like FSU vs Wake (total profit of money in - money out) compared to FSU vs South Carolina (total profit of money in - money out). ESPN can crunch the numbers and say we have 6 useless games of FSU vs ACC nobodies or we can have FSU vs UT, OU, LSU, UGa, etc al. Same thing for Clemson. If they crunch the numbers and say ESPN will make more profit even if we pay those schools an extra $40 million each to change sides then it makes sense.

Not sure why nobody talks about switching to the SEC like this. Imagine ESPN making Jimbo and A&M play in Tallahassee on Labor Day weekend to open 2025 and the ratings that would create, now you might understand why ESPN might actually make more money that way."

Noles News: FSU to officially remain in ACC through at least 2024, ESPN puts 7 Seminoles on top 100 list

All the latest in Florida State Seminoles sports

www.tomahawknation.com

But HuskyHawk's response came from my questioning the value of some of these schools to the B1G. In context, the schools we were talking about are the "nobodies" of the quote above. Why would you add more nodobies? If the goal is to add somebodies?

I definitely didn't say that NO SCHOOLS would be added to the SEC and B1G. I think the ACC has 5 schools that could be added.

 

[visitingcock]

several of those schools wouldn't, including Iowa and Nebraska. I know for a fact there is huge Nebraska regret in the B1G

Nebraska might leave the Big for a Texas-less Big12.

Iowa would never leave the Big.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

So many comments everywhere but this guy had a similar take:

"In theory everything hinges on the viability of Fox/B1G stealing a bunch of teams, it's not necessarily why would they just pay us more, it depends on ESPN assessing whether or not FSU and others can dissolve the ACC and ESPN loses FSU and others completely to another network. Also, it's not FSU by itself in a vacuum in the ACC and then by itself in the SEC. You're comparing games like FSU vs Wake (total profit of money in - money out) compared to FSU vs South Carolina (total profit of money in - money out). ESPN can crunch the numbers and say we have 6 useless games of FSU vs ACC nobodies or we can have FSU vs UT, OU, LSU, UGa, etc al. Same thing for Clemson. If they crunch the numbers and say ESPN will make more profit even if we pay those schools an extra $40 million each to change sides then it makes sense.

Not sure why nobody talks about switching to the SEC like this. Imagine ESPN making Jimbo and A&M play in Tallahassee on Labor Day weekend to open 2025 and the ratings that would create, now you might understand why ESPN might actually make more money that way."

Noles News: FSU to officially remain in ACC through at least 2024, ESPN puts 7 Seminoles on top 100 list

All the latest in Florida State Seminoles sports

www.tomahawknation.com

All the realignments have networks ESPN and FOX behind it. This is the right way to analyze this. The bottom line is UCONN needs to get some media consultants and crunch some football numbers to present to any of the conferences and/or partners to get our worth out there.

 

[GG]

 

[ScottVib]

One thing to remember is it’s not FSU - Tennessee vs. FSU - Wake in a vacuum…

It’s does FSU - Tennesse become more valuable enough than the Arkansas - Tennessee game that would’ve been in that slot compared to the drop in value from the FSU - Wake vs. Cuse - Wake game they now have for that slot.

FSU makes “worthless” ACC content airable. While they boost the SEC content is it by enough to overcome the cost. Similarly what’s more valuable to ESPNs massive outlay for the playoff? FSU as the 10-2 ACC champions seeded 4th or as a 8-4 at large 8th seed slated for a second round rematch with #1 Alabama (if they win). Especially if that alternative involves a 9-3 Pitt reaching the tournament now as ACC champ blocking an at large bid to Tennessee. (So FSU & Tennessee vs. Pitt & FSU in the playoff)

FSU arguably has much more value to ESPN as the big dawg in the ACC then as a member (say upper class) in the SEC (even before you factor the pro rata costs involved in each deal). I just don’t see a lot of reason for ESPN to bend over backwards to move FSU or anyone else from the ACC before 2036 (I guess the only argument would be a world where they’re lost to the Big Ten and FOX if they don’t match the deal).

 

[HuskyHawk]

several of those schools wouldn't, including Iowa and Nebraska. I know for a fact there is huge Nebraska regret in the B1G

Iowa isn't close to the bottom of the B1G. Middle of the pack. Minnesota is very close to the bottom. The point you miss is that the history helps drive value. State population is irrelevant, or Alabama and Auburn wouldn't be what they are. Iowa is way more valuable in a league with Illinois and Indiana than they would be elsewhere. You'd think UConn fans would have internalized this after our experience in the American. In a vacuum, Memphis is probably on par with many Big East programs, but our fans didn't treat them that way. We would have rather seen our team play a bad Georgetown team.

My point was that USC and UCLA were uniquely valuable to the B1G, not just as big names from a big market, but as schools Big Ten fans always sought to play in the Rose Bowl. Washington and Oregon too, but to a lesser extent. Alabama fans never had that, the Sugar Bowl history was often with the Big XII, and guess where all those top football schools (except Nebraska) ended up? This isn't a coincidence.

The Orange Bowl was a Big 8 game, but they most often faced ACC and SEC teams (sometimes others). Nebraska's history was mostly not with Big Ten schools, and it shows. Maryland has similarly not fared well. There's just no juice for anybody in the B1G in playing Maryland. Those old lingering passions matter in games not between highly ranked teams.

Is any Big XII school on the B1G's radar, that was the question. I think you're right, no. If Colorado got back to winning NCs, maybe. Are any on the SEC's radar? Probably not, but maybe Kansas. For "why" I refer to the history aspect above. There is some "juice" there. Probably not enough.

 

[HuskyHawk]

One thing to remember is it’s not FSU - Tennessee vs. FSU - Wake in a vacuum…

It’s does FSU - Tennesse become more valuable enough than the Arkansas - Tennessee game that would’ve been in that slot compared to the drop in value from the FSU - Wake vs. Cuse - Wake game they now have for that slot.

FSU makes “worthless” ACC content airable. While they boost the SEC content is it by enough to overcome the cost. Similarly what’s more valuable to ESPNs massive outlay for the playoff? FSU as the 10-2 ACC champions seeded 4th or as a 8-4 at large 8th seed slated for a second round rematch with #1 Alabama (if they win). Especially if that alternative involves a 9-3 Pitt reaching the tournament now as ACC champ blocking an at large bid to Tennessee. (So FSU & Tennessee vs. Pitt & FSU in the playoff)

FSU arguably has much more value to ESPN as the big dawg in the ACC then as a member (say upper class) in the SEC (even before you factor the pro rata costs involved in each deal). I just don’t see a lot of reason for ESPN to bend over backwards to move FSU or anyone else from the ACC before 2036 (I guess the only argument would be a world where they’re lost to the Big Ten and FOX if they don’t match the deal).

This is a key point. Conference size is a problem when it simply replaces a really good game with a really good game. They can only feature so many games a week. Somebody said the B1G hesitation on Washington and Oregon was about this. It will mean fewer of the old Big Ten games even happen. Ohio State vs Oregon is great, unless it replaces Ohio State vs Penn State.

 

[upstater]

Iowa isn't close to the bottom of the B1G. Middle of the pack. Minnesota is very close to the bottom. The point you miss is that the history helps drive value. State population is irrelevant, or Alabama and Auburn wouldn't be what they are. Iowa is way more valuable in a league with Illinois and Indiana than they would be elsewhere. You'd think UConn fans would have internalized this after our experience in the American. In a vacuum, Memphis is probably on par with many Big East programs, but our fans didn't treat them that way. We would have rather seen our team play a bad Georgetown team.

My point was that USC and UCLA were uniquely valuable to the B1G, not just as big names from a big market, but as schools Big Ten fans always sought to play in the Rose Bowl. Washington and Oregon too, but to a lesser extent. Alabama fans never had that, the Sugar Bowl history was often with the Big XII, and guess where all those top football schools (except Nebraska) ended up? This isn't a coincidence.

The Orange Bowl was a Big 8 game, but they most often faced ACC and SEC teams (sometimes others). Nebraska's history was mostly not with Big Ten schools, and it shows. Maryland has similarly not fared well. There's just no juice for anybody in the B1G in playing Maryland. Those old lingering passions matter in games not between highly ranked teams.

Is any Big XII school on the B1G's radar, that was the question. I think you're right, no. If Colorado got back to winning NCs, maybe. Are any on the SEC's radar? Probably not, but maybe Kansas. For "why" I refer to the history aspect above. There is some "juice" there. Probably not enough.

We're disagreeing on the schools. Not on the overall point. I mean, you're citing a theory to me in which there are less valuable properties that drag a conference, and ones that enhance it. I never disagreed. I only disagree on which schools we're talking about. You're never going to get a lot of eyeballs for some of these schools.

And Maryland matters a lot more $$ to the B1G than Iowa. Not because of tradition. Iowa has them beat. Because there are 2x as many Marylanders, Maryland is the only school in a P4 conference, and you have another couple of 4 million people in DC and Northern Virginia. We're talking 10m people. But the #1 reason is recruiting. There are a helluva lot of good players in Maryland and the capitol area.

 

[drayenob]

Felt good listening to that

 

[CL82]

Felt good listening to that

Agree, except the whole UConn hasn't been spending on football, they aren't sure whether or not football matters to them, etc narratives. I don't think that narrative will fully go away, but it could be redirected, as we saw here, that Connecticut is now paying attention to football with the hiring of Mora.

 

[Khal Drogo]

Felt good listening to that

Carolina schools always wanted UConn. FSU and Clemson did not. BC and Syracuse would probably keep us out along with the football schools.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Agree, except the whole UConn hasn't been spending on football, they aren't sure whether or not football matters to them, etc narratives. I don't think that narrative will fully go away, but it could be redirected, as we saw here, that Connecticut is now paying attention to football with the hiring of Mora.

Only way to change that perception is by winning against good P5 teams. There isn't another way to change this.

 

[CL82]

Only way to change that perception is by winning against good P5 teams. There isn't another way to change this.

Yep. Connecticut/NC State is a great place to start. Would love to get revenge for last year.

 

[NE Football]

I don’t see the ACC getting poached for the next ten years. FSU is making themselves less attractive to both the B1G & SEC. I highly doubt Florida, UGA, South Carolina and the lower tier teams will want either FSU or Clemson. They don’t need another automatic loss and a redundancy of markets.

The B1G studied 10 schools, two of which were Oregon & Washington. The five ACC teams were UNC, Duke, UVA, GT & Miami. All are AAU schools. The other 3 were Cal, Stanford & Utah.

If the B1G and SEC decide in the future, 2036, to grow to 24 teams the remaining ACC teams will all join the B12. A lot depends on the money offered by the networks in 2031.

 

[noeynox]

UConn should have did this back in April. Perhaps they'd be in.

B12 and ACC on the clock!

Thanks, that made that easy. For what it’s worth immediately after mentioning that the big 12 got calls from Connecticut and Memphis after it said that it was “open for business” he then goes on to comment “I’m not sure that’s gonna happen.” So, yeah, I mention, but almost immediately afterwards...

the-boneyard.com

 

[noeynox]

The replies back then shot this down. Sometimes you have to be willing to be the 1st.

 

[UCFBfan]

Carolina schools always wanted UConn. FSU and Clemson did not. BC and Syracuse would probably keep us out along with the football schools.

FSU and Clemson are looking for any way out. BC and Syracuse should be wise enough to see the writing on the wall and know that they need anything they can get to try and save any value to the ACC. We add value, period. This isn't the 2010's where they can hold grudges and get away with it.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

FSU and Clemson are looking for any way out. BC and Syracuse should be wise enough to see the writing on the wall and know that they need anything they can get to try and save any value to the ACC. We add value, period. This isn't the 2010's where they can hold grudges and get away with it.

FSU and Clemson have made it exceptionally clear that if they could find a way out they would be out. They are still in the ACC, entirely because they are unwilling to pay the massive cost (a bit north of $100 million exit fee, anyone's guess at the GOR buyout but that would likely start at half a billion dollars) to leave the ACC.

There is quite a bit of time before Cuse and BC need to worry about saving value in the conference once Clemson and FSU leave.

 

[buddy]

FSU and Clemson have made it exceptionally clear that if they could find a way out they would be out. They are still in the ACC, entirely because they are unwilling to pay the massive cost (a bit north of $100 million exit fee, anyone's guess at the GOR buyout but that would likely start at half a billion dollars) to leave the ACC.

There is quite a bit of time before Cuse and BC need to worry about saving value in the conference once Clemson and FSU leave.

They will likely land in the Big 12 anyways and knock UConn out again

 

[hank970]

Nebraska might leave the Big for a Texas-less Big12.

Iowa would never leave the Big.

I can't imagine that Nebraska would willingly accept such a cut in revenue.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I can't imagine that Nebraska would willingly accept such a cut in revenue.

They wouldn't.

Additionally, if Rhule get's the job done there, the narrative that they don't belong will disappear.