I think you are forming your opinions based on a lot of rumors where no one went on the record. It's no coincidence this one media outlet who is reporting that these "sources" mentioned the $1 million NIL pricetag did it at the same time they were reporting that LSU was out of contention for Chavez. Certainly seems logical that these "sources" were Kim Mulkey or someone on her LSU coaching staff; they're the only ones who would have leaked this as the other finalists were still recruiting Chavez. Are they trying to muddy the waters for the other finalists, or hinder and hurt Chavez's recruitment by other colleges so that the "price" goes down and gives LSU a chance to get back in the race? Someone had an agenda leaking that information, whether it's true or not.
As a college program recruiting elite players, you can't "wait" until a high school player proves themselves in college. It's way too late; someone else already got them on campus. Yes, you can hope they enter the transfer portal but by that time the price has gone up for a freshman who had an instant impact in the game (like a Juju, Hidalgo, Booker, etc.).
As for Nike, they have been signing high school hoopsters to shoe deals for decades, I believe. Same for adidas. They didn't wait until they proved themselves in college. It's all about forecasting. If you think a high school recruit has "it", then you pull out all the stops.