3 seed

[aburks41]

Doesn’t Lunardi have a horrible track record w these things? It’s like how Mel Kiper is so historically wrong w mock drafts yet people keep listening to him

He’s decent at picking the field, which is the easy part. He’s very bad at correctly seeding teams.

 

[ToolzieFan]

Over the last four tournaments, 3-seeds are 15-1, 4-seeds are 10-6.

Average margin of 3-14 game is 15.9
Average margin of 4-13 game is 3.5

2021

4-13
Virginia lost by 4
FSU won by 10
Purdue lost by 9 (OT)
Oklahoma won by 9

3-14
Kansas won by 9
Texas lost by 1
Arkansas won by 17
West Virginia won by 17

2019

4-13
Virginia Tech won by 14
FSU won by 7
Kansas State lost by 6
Kansas won by 34

3-14
LSU won by 5
Texas Tech won by 15
Purdue won by 13
Houston won by 29

2018

4-13
Arizona lost by 19
Gonzaga won by 4
Wichita State lost by 6
Auburn won by 4

3-14
Tennessee won by 26
Michigan won by 14
Texas Tech won by 10
Michigan State won by 4

Thanks for putting this together. I do think the average 13 seed is definitely tougher than the average 14 seed. Seeding is more important than region to me. Of course, part of the reason 3 seeds have more success is that they are usually better teams than the 4 seeds.

 

[kemba]

Don’t get the not wanting msg takes. Msg is clearly the biggest home court available to us and we were obviously much better at home this year. Losing a one possession game to a top 10 team that’s on a roll doesn’t mean it’s not an advantage to play there. And we saw in 14 how much we can take over the building in the regional. Even though we bring a lot to the big east tournament too it’s not the same as what the regional would be. Big east has more fan bases that it’s an easy trip for and more time to plan for the fan bases that it’s not.

Now id rather a favorable seed an matchups than a worse path in the east, but all things being equal east is the preference by a mile

 

[Edward Sargent]

I can't see how Tennessee or Indiana rank ahead of us at this point. I feel Baylor and Kansas St. should be behind us. Given how the weekend turned out, I'd probably have Duke/UConn and one of Xavier/Kansas St. on the 3 line.

And Duke is looking good right now. Some of that just may be that even the top of the ACC sucks, but they look tough.

They looked good against Virginia

 

[HuskyHawk]

It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.

Lunardi just carries the water for ESPN properties.

 

[UConNick]

Finally finished my final bracket projection. It is definitely a touch homer-ish as I landed us on the 3-line. I still maintain what I said the other day - it wouldn't surprise me at all if we are a 3, but if I had to bet I'd say the committee shafts us and we get a 4.

Here was my top 16. S-curve rank and first weekend site in parens:

South: 1. Alabama (1, Birmingham); 2. UCLA (7, Sacramento); 3. Kansas State (10, Columbus); 4. Duke (15, Orlando)

Midwest: 1. Houston (2, Birmingham); 2. Texas (5, Denver); 3. Connecticut (11, Albany); 4. Tennessee (14, Greensboro)

West: 1. Kansas (3, Des Moines); 2. Arizona (6, Sacramento); 3. Gonzaga (9, Denver); 4. Indiana (16, Albany)

East: 1. Purdue (4, Columbus); 2. Marquette (8, Des Moines); 3. Baylor (12, Orlando); 4. Xavier (13, Greensboro)

My bubble for the record looks like this:

Last Four Byes: Providence, Penn State, USC, NC State

Last Four In: Utah State, Rutgers, Nevada, Arizona State

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Clemson.

Definitely just an amateur take, but it's been such fun building these every two weeks over the last couple months. My bracket last year had 67/68 teams right (just missed A&M for Rutgers, like everyone else) and 60/68 teams either on the right seed line or only one line away from the right seed line.

Probably overseeding certain teams (cough, UConn, cough) and underseeding others like Baylor and Tennessee. And Virginia, who I had as my top 5.

 

[AntG168]

Guys it really doesn’t matter. If we play to our potential we’ll cream anyone placed in front of us in the first weekend. Our opponent or location doesn’t matter. What UConn team shows up is what matters

 

[JMick]

a bunch of landing pages are live on CBS

NCAA Tournament 2023: North Carolina Tar Heels

NCAA Tournament scouting report: North Carolina Tar Heels

www.cbssports.com

NCAA Tournament 2023: Wisconsin Badgers

NCAA Tournament scouting report: Wisconsin Badgers

www.cbssports.com

there is one for us, too. it's from March 9th - so I don't know if that's when the committee made up their mind or if it's still just a preview, but it's in the same format as the others.

NCAA Tournament 2023: UConn Huskies

NCAA Tournament scouting report: UConn Huskies

www.cbssports.com

these could just be written up for everyone, or they just published too soon.

 

[tzznandrew]

a bunch of landing pages are live on CBS

NCAA Tournament 2023: North Carolina Tar Heels

NCAA Tournament scouting report: North Carolina Tar Heels

www.cbssports.com

NCAA Tournament 2023: Wisconsin Badgers

NCAA Tournament scouting report: Wisconsin Badgers

www.cbssports.com

there is one for us, too. it's from March 9th - so I don't know if that's when the committee made up their mind or if it's still just a preview, but it's in the same format as the others.

NCAA Tournament 2023: UConn Huskies

NCAA Tournament scouting report: UConn Huskies

www.cbssports.com

If Wisconsin sneaks in. LOL.

80 NET. Losing record v. Q1+2. Q3 loss.

 

[Rocktheworld]

10 more minutes

 

[UConNick]

Yeah based on all the teams that have those articles around (including Vandy and Michigan), I’m assuming they had one of these pieces written for every bubble team, and some poor intern hit “publish” instead of save or archive.

I’ll be pissed beyond belief if some of those teams, especially UNC, actually make it.

 

[Rocktheworld]

I have 5 free nights at the Resorts World in Vegas, wouldn’t hate that!

I would strongly consider driving up from SD

 

[kemba]

Guys it really doesn’t matter. If we play to our potential we’ll cream anyone placed in front of us in the first weekend. Our opponent or location doesn’t matter. What UConn team shows up is what matters

Right but every team has off games and the right matchup can be the difference between being upset and escaping with a win.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Didn’t the selection committee have us as a 5 seed and we only won Q2/Q3 games since then?

Reply

 

[HuskyHawk]

Well we’re not in the south.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Would have to think with Xavier, Indiana, and Virginia losing, we should DEFINTLEY be on the 3 line.

@tzznandrew ....thoughts?

We also lost.

 

[Hi-Low]

Xavier a 3...hmm

 

[Goldenflash]

Xavier a 3 in Greensboro

 

[REB1094]

Xavier a 3...hmm

vs. what is going to be a very motivated Kennesaw St, in their first NCAA appearance ever

Xavier by 25 though

 

[bazz&boujee]

Xavier a 3...hmm

Yep we’re no 3

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

A&M got screwed

 

[August_West]

They are going to stick us with a 4. Sucks. Surprised X is ahead.

 

[Hi-Low]

4 in East or 3 in West

 

[jibsey]

Yep we’re no 3

The 2 point loss to Marquette tells you what, we’re a 4?

 

[tzznandrew]

So one of the last two 3s will be Gonzaga

And then then UConn is competing against KSU, Tennessee, and Duke for the last.