3 seed

[August_West]

I have 5 free nights at the Resorts World in Vegas, wouldn’t hate that!

Cya there!

 

[tzznandrew]

Don’t really care what pod we are in. We may be in Albany pod we may not be. I think we are better off in any region but the East this year. Especially if we get a higher seed line out of it.

3 seed-Albany

Go West, young men, go West!

 

[tzznandrew]

Duke is playing well but they really don't have a three seed resume, like at all. The conference is bad, which makes Duke look better. 4 is even pushing it.

I agree in a blind resume. But I wouldn't be surprised if the committee disregarded metrics a bit to have given UVA/Duke/Miami winner a 3 seed. Sometimes a hot team with a big name gets a bit over-seeded. UConn in 2005 comes to mind.

 

[Hunt for 7]

With the way Xavier lost to Marquette, it knocks them off the 3 line. If they bump Marquette up to a two seed in the east there is no way we will be placed in the east regional. The way things went down in the conference tourneys could not gave worked out better for our seeding purposes. The BE championship game was really us v. Marquette on Friday. Marquette right now is playing as well as anyone in the country. And we had four clear open threes, two by the best % 3 point shooter in the BE. I am wishing we can grab onto something and get a good matchup in the first round as a 3 seed, then find a way to win a close game in the second round. At this point no more talk needed just kept the seeds fall where the fall and watch to see how we perform.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

 

[Hi-Low]

Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

Agreed that would be nasty...Bama & Texas would be toughest 1 / 2 combo possible

 

[Giddyup5]

Why can’t we get a 3 in the East? Is it because Marquette locked up the 2 in the east?

I do not see another potential 3 seed geographically wanting MSG besides UVA.

 

[tzznandrew]

Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

With this team, I don't care who or where the teams we play the second weekend would be. Let's get there. Get that monkey off their back and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[tzznandrew]

Why can’t we get a 3 in the East? Is it because Marquette locked up the 2 in the east?

I do not see another potential 3 seed geographically wanting MSG besides UVA.

Duke

 

[Hi-Low]

Why can’t we get a 3 in the East? Is it because Marquette locked up the 2 in the east?

I do not see another potential 3 seed geographically wanting MSG besides UVA.

If Marquette is 2 in the East then UConn won't be the 3 in East...will be a 3 elsewhere

Marquette not "locked" in East but will be a 2 somewhere.

 

[gampelcrazies]

Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

This is not up to date. We are a 4 according to him now on twitter

 

[BFieldHusky]

For those who like bracket matrix:

Uconn 3.39. (3)
Duke 5.25 (5)
Xavier 3.86 (4)
Tennessee 3.70 (4)
Virginia 4.28 (4)
Kansas St. 3.14 (3)
Baylor 2.49 (2)

 

[CTBasketball]

This is not up to date. We are a 4 according to him now on twitter

He’s not the best at predicting seeding, so I’d take that with a grain of salt.

 

[auror]

I think we really lucked out with the way Xavier lost.

Teams definitely ahead of us:

Alabama
Houston
Kansas
Purdue
---
Texas
Arizona
UCLA
Marquette
---
Gonzaga

I think those are 9 teams ahead of us without a doubt. Now it matters if we the committee thinks our resume is one of the three best among:

Baylor
Kansas St
Xavier
Tennessee
Duke
Indiana

Honestly, I didn't think it would be the case after the Marquette loss, but it seems like it should be. But is the committee going to have the best ACC team get a 4 seed? seems unlikely. And they seem to love the B12. And Xavier did beat us twice...

So I think it's probably 60/40 we get the last or second to last 3-seed.

Final update. We lost Nova from Q1 overnight (finished #76). Bolded if top 3 in a category, red if last.

	UConn	Xavier	Indiana	Virginia	Duke	Tennessee	Kansas St	Baylor
Record	25-8	25-9	22-11	25-7	26-8	23-10	23-9	22-10
NET	8	22	30	26	16	4	23	15
Predict Ave	5	18	22	28	17	6	26	13
Resume Ave	16	17	19.5	17.5	13.5	19	14.5	10
SoS (non-conf)	42 (92)	30 (50)	12 (104)	71 (39)	57 (70)	32 (46)	16 (310)	2 (42)
Q1 (Q1A)	6-6 (3-4)	8-6 (4-5)	6-8 (4-6)	5-5 (1-3)	5-6 (1-4)	7-7 (3-4)	9-8 (4-5)	11-10 (6-6)
Q2	6-1	5-1	6-2	5-1	7-2	3-3	4-1	4-0
Q1+2	12-7	13-7	12-10	10-6	12-8	10-10	13-9	15-10
Bad Losses	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Away/Neutral	10-6	10-6	7-9	10-6	10-8	9-8	7-8	8-7
Net Bolds/Reds	6	3	-3	3	3	1	4	7

So based on my completely arbitrary seat of the paints bolds/reds model, Baylor is clearly ahead. Followed by UConn, and then Kansas St. This lines up exactly with Bracket Matrix (although they have KSt ahead of UConn).

UConn resume is overall solid and strong on predictive, Q2 and away from home. Baylor has strong everything. Indiana doesn't belong in this grouping.

Duke's metrics are better than I thought when I looked recently, and overall they don't have a lot of holes. If they had done better in Q1, they might have had a chance for a 3, but I don't see the committee giving a team with a losing Q1 record a 3-seed. It's between them and Xavier for the top 4 I think, unless the committee favors predictive metrics in which case Tennessee is in the mix. But the bracket reveal makes me think not so much. But I am still a bit worried the committee may just swap us for those head to head reasons.

Hopefully there is enough resume distance that the committee doesn't look at us and Xavier and say: 1) Xavier swept them, 2) Xavier had better conference record, 3) Xavier made it farther in conference tournament. Right now it's their 2 bad losses (and how they affected their metrics) that are keeping them out of the 3 seed mix.

 

[EROCK CONN]

This is not up to date. We are a 4 according to him now on twitter

It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.

 

[Giddyup5]

Duke

If Marquette is 2 in the East then UConn won't be the 3 in East. Marquette not "locked" in East but will be a 2 somewhere.

Thanks.

I’d be disappointed if Duke jumps to a 3.

Clarifying the rules. If Marquette is a 2 in the East, we could be the 4 because that match up would be elite 8 at earliest?

If that’s the case. We hope Marquette gets a 2 anywhere, and hope for 3 in east as best case scenario.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.

Do you believe for a second that they won't continue to kiss Duke's backside?

 

[Hi-Low]

This is not up to date. We are a 4 according to him now on twitter

Weird because Lunardi had UConn as a 3 earlier this morning so moving to a 4 with no games played yet today makes no sense...lol

His current Bracketology from 2:45 am this morning has UConn as a 3 seed in south....I guess he dreamed UConn moving to a 4 for twitter post since no games played after 2:45am

 

[Hi-Low]

Thanks.

I’d be disappointed if Duke jumps to a 2.

Clarifying the rules. If Marquette is a 2 in the East, we could be the 4 because that match up would be elite 8 at earliest?

If that’s the case. We hope Marquette gets a 2 anywhere, and hope for 3 in east as best case scenario.

Not sure if it's a written rule, just a principle....but yes UConn could be a 4 seed in East with Marquette as a 2 seed since couldn't meet until regional final in that case.

 

[BFieldHusky]

It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.

I can't see how Tennessee AND OR Kansas St should be ahead of us.

 

[tzznandrew]

I looked this up recently to get an idea of just how big the difference getting a 3 vs. 14 game and a 4 vs. 13 game is in Round 1.

Last year’s tournament:

4-13 games
Arkansas won by 4
UCLA won by 4
Illinois won by 1
Providence won by 9

3-14 games
Texas Tech won by 35
Purdue won by 22
Tenn won by 32
Wisc won by 7

Over the last four tournaments, 3-seeds are 15-1, 4-seeds are 10-6.

Average margin of 3-14 game is 15.9
Average margin of 4-13 game is 3.5

2021

4-13
Virginia lost by 4
FSU won by 10
Purdue lost by 9 (OT)
Oklahoma won by 9

3-14
Kansas won by 9
Texas lost by 1
Arkansas won by 17
West Virginia won by 17

2019

4-13
Virginia Tech won by 14
FSU won by 7
Kansas State lost by 6
Kansas won by 34

3-14
LSU won by 5
Texas Tech won by 15
Purdue won by 13
Houston won by 29

2018

4-13
Arizona lost by 19
Gonzaga won by 4
Wichita State lost by 6
Auburn won by 4

3-14
Tennessee won by 26
Michigan won by 14
Texas Tech won by 10
Michigan State won by 4

 

[HCCForever]

Do you believe for a second that they won't continue to kiss Duke's backside?

Walton joked about this in last night's UCLA/Arizona. Mentioned that Kansas never gets penalized for losses and that Duke would get elevated to a high seed.

 

[August_West]

Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

Over the last four tournaments, 3-seeds are 15-1, 4-seeds are 10-6.

Average margin of 3-14 game is 15.9
Average margin of 4-13 game is 3.5

2021

4-13
Virginia lost by 4
FSU won by 10
Purdue lost by 9 (OT)
Oklahoma won by 9

3-14
Kansas won by 9
Texas lost by 1
Arkansas won by 17
West Virginia won by 17

2019

4-13
Virginia Tech won by 14
FSU won by 7
Kansas State lost by 6
Kansas won by 34

3-14
LSU won by 5
Texas Tech won by 15
Purdue won by 13
Houston won by 29

2018

4-13
Arizona lost by 19
Gonzaga won by 4
Wichita State lost by 6
Auburn won by 4

3-14
Tennessee won by 26
Michigan won by 14
Texas Tech won by 10
Michigan State won by 4

Lunardi just dropped us to 4

 

[BFieldHusky]

Weird because Lunardi had UConn as a 3 earlier this morning so moving to a 4 with no games played yet today makes no sense...lol

His current Bracketology from 2:45 am this morning has UConn as a 3 seed in south....I guess he dreamed UConn moving to a 4 for twitter post since no games played after 2:45am

That really is strange.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I looked this up recently to get an idea of just how big the difference getting a 3 vs. 14 game and a 4 vs. 13 game is in Round 1.

Last year’s tournament:

4-13 games
Arkansas won by 4
UCLA won by 4
Illinois won by 1
Providence won by 9

3-14 games
Texas Tech won by 35
Purdue won by 22
Tenn won by 32
Wisc won by 7

To be more scientific: