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3 seed

I think we really lucked out with the way Xavier lost.

Teams definitely ahead of us:

Alabama
Houston
Kansas
Purdue
---
Texas
Arizona
UCLA
Marquette
---
Gonzaga

I think those are 9 teams ahead of us without a doubt. Now it matters if we the committee thinks our resume is one of the three best among:

Baylor
Kansas St
Xavier
Tennessee
Duke
Indiana

Honestly, I didn't think it would be the case after the Marquette loss, but it seems like it should be. But is the committee going to have the best ACC team get a 4 seed? seems unlikely. And they seem to love the B12. And Xavier did beat us twice...

So I think it's probably 60/40 we get the last or second to last 3-seed.
Final update. We lost Nova from Q1 overnight (finished #76). Bolded if top 3 in a category, red if last.
UConnXavierIndianaVirginiaDukeTennesseeKansas StBaylor
Record25-825-922-1125-726-823-1023-922-10
NET82230261642315
Predict Ave51822281762613
Resume Ave161719.517.513.51914.510
SoS (non-conf)42 (92)30 (50)12 (104)71 (39)57 (70)32 (46)16 (310)2 (42)
Q1 (Q1A)6-6 (3-4)8-6 (4-5)6-8 (4-6)5-5 (1-3)5-6 (1-4)7-7 (3-4)9-8 (4-5)11-10 (6-6)
Q26-15-16-25-17-23-34-14-0
Q1+212-713-712-1010-612-810-1013-915-10
Bad Losses12010000
Away/Neutral10-610-67-910-610-89-87-88-7
Net Bolds/Reds63-333147

So based on my completely arbitrary seat of the paints bolds/reds model, Baylor is clearly ahead. Followed by UConn, and then Kansas St. This lines up exactly with Bracket Matrix (although they have KSt ahead of UConn).

UConn resume is overall solid and strong on predictive, Q2 and away from home. Baylor has strong everything. Indiana doesn't belong in this grouping.

Duke's metrics are better than I thought when I looked recently, and overall they don't have a lot of holes. If they had done better in Q1, they might have had a chance for a 3, but I don't see the committee giving a team with a losing Q1 record a 3-seed. It's between them and Xavier for the top 4 I think, unless the committee favors predictive metrics in which case Tennessee is in the mix. But the bracket reveal makes me think not so much. But I am still a bit worried the committee may just swap us for those head to head reasons.

Hopefully there is enough resume distance that the committee doesn't look at us and Xavier and say: 1) Xavier swept them, 2) Xavier had better conference record, 3) Xavier made it farther in conference tournament. Right now it's their 2 bad losses (and how they affected their metrics) that are keeping them out of the 3 seed mix.
 
Duke
If Marquette is 2 in the East then UConn won't be the 3 in East. Marquette not "locked" in East but will be a 2 somewhere.

Thanks.

I’d be disappointed if Duke jumps to a 3.

Clarifying the rules. If Marquette is a 2 in the East, we could be the 4 because that match up would be elite 8 at earliest?

If that’s the case. We hope Marquette gets a 2 anywhere, and hope for 3 in east as best case scenario.
 
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It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.
Do you believe for a second that they won't continue to kiss Duke's backside?
 
This is not up to date. We are a 4 according to him now on twitter

Weird because Lunardi had UConn as a 3 earlier this morning so moving to a 4 with no games played yet today makes no sense...lol

His current Bracketology from 2:45 am this morning has UConn as a 3 seed in south....I guess he dreamed UConn moving to a 4 for twitter post since no games played after 2:45am ;)
 
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Thanks.

I’d be disappointed if Duke jumps to a 2.

Clarifying the rules. If Marquette is a 2 in the East, we could be the 4 because that match up would be elite 8 at earliest?

If that’s the case. We hope Marquette gets a 2 anywhere, and hope for 3 in east as best case scenario.
Not sure if it's a written rule, just a principle....but yes UConn could be a 4 seed in East with Marquette as a 2 seed since couldn't meet until regional final in that case.
 
I looked this up recently to get an idea of just how big the difference getting a 3 vs. 14 game and a 4 vs. 13 game is in Round 1.

Last year’s tournament:

4-13 games
Arkansas won by 4
UCLA won by 4
Illinois won by 1
Providence won by 9

3-14 games
Texas Tech won by 35
Purdue won by 22
Tenn won by 32
Wisc won by 7
Over the last four tournaments, 3-seeds are 15-1, 4-seeds are 10-6.

Average margin of 3-14 game is 15.9
Average margin of 4-13 game is 3.5

2021

4-13
Virginia lost by 4
FSU won by 10
Purdue lost by 9 (OT)
Oklahoma won by 9

3-14
Kansas won by 9
Texas lost by 1
Arkansas won by 17
West Virginia won by 17

2019

4-13
Virginia Tech won by 14
FSU won by 7
Kansas State lost by 6
Kansas won by 34

3-14
LSU won by 5
Texas Tech won by 15
Purdue won by 13
Houston won by 29

2018

4-13
Arizona lost by 19
Gonzaga won by 4
Wichita State lost by 6
Auburn won by 4

3-14
Tennessee won by 26
Michigan won by 14
Texas Tech won by 10
Michigan State won by 4
 
Do you believe for a second that they won't continue to kiss Duke's backside?
Walton joked about this in last night's UCLA/Arizona. Mentioned that Kansas never gets penalized for losses and that Duke would get elevated to a high seed.
 
.-.
Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Latest from Lunardi has us a 3, but in the south with both Alabama and Texas. Nasty. Do not want.
Over the last four tournaments, 3-seeds are 15-1, 4-seeds are 10-6.

Average margin of 3-14 game is 15.9
Average margin of 4-13 game is 3.5

2021

4-13
Virginia lost by 4
FSU won by 10
Purdue lost by 9 (OT)
Oklahoma won by 9

3-14
Kansas won by 9
Texas lost by 1
Arkansas won by 17
West Virginia won by 17

2019

4-13
Virginia Tech won by 14
FSU won by 7
Kansas State lost by 6
Kansas won by 34

3-14
LSU won by 5
Texas Tech won by 15
Purdue won by 13
Houston won by 29

2018

4-13
Arizona lost by 19
Gonzaga won by 4
Wichita State lost by 6
Auburn won by 4

3-14
Tennessee won by 26
Michigan won by 14
Texas Tech won by 10
Michigan State won by 4
Lunardi just dropped us to 4
 
Weird because Lunardi had UConn as a 3 earlier this morning so moving to a 4 with no games played yet today makes no sense...lol

His current Bracketology from 2:45 am this morning has UConn as a 3 seed in south....I guess he dreamed UConn moving to a 4 for twitter post since no games played after 2:45am ;)
That really is strange.
 
I looked this up recently to get an idea of just how big the difference getting a 3 vs. 14 game and a 4 vs. 13 game is in Round 1.

Last year’s tournament:

4-13 games
Arkansas won by 4
UCLA won by 4
Illinois won by 1
Providence won by 9

3-14 games
Texas Tech won by 35
Purdue won by 22
Tenn won by 32
Wisc won by 7
To be more scientific:
 
Disappointed.

Really wanted a 3 in the East and that’s basically impossible now.
 
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It would be absolutely asinine if Duke got the 3 in the 4 in the east over us — would be 1000% political.
Im not a conspiracy guy, but the “politics” are starting to worry me with Duke, as well as the anti Big East bias. I think It’s pretty well known that UConn and MSG would be a huge advantage, and they are going to avoid giving us what we want.
 
Im not a conspiracy guy, but the “politics” are starting to worry me with Duke, as well as the anti Big East bias. I think It’s pretty well known that UConn and MSG would be a huge advantage, and they are going to avoid giving us what we want.
Why do you say msg is an advantage? It hasn’t really helped us in BET last 3 years.
 
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Why do you say msg is an advantage? It hasn’t really helped us in BET last 3 years.
Honestly, I think It depends on how you look at it. If you just take it game by game, we have won 2/3 at MSG this season, and those 3 games were played in the last 2 weeks. Id take our chances playing anybody in the Sweet 16 at MSG compared to any of the other venues. Thats just my opinion.

At the same time, we were not a great road team this year. If we are playing somebody and it compares to a road environment, Im not so sure I would as confident going into that situation.
 
I would love to be a three seed against a 6 seed without a good offense. I think when we play locked in/our best, only teams like Marquette and Xavier with great offenses can beat us.

Give me St Mary's in Albany with Gonzaga as the two in the region too so we get their fans rooting again St Mary's.
 
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