Out of all of our opponents, I'll pick on NC State, Tennessee, Duke and JMU. I think there's a better than even chance 2023 CU loses at least three if not all four of those games given the, um, charitably speaking 'unbalanced' nature of the Buff's roster, but for argument's sake let's give 'em a V against JMU. I'm thinking that Doeren and Elko would have completely flummoxed Shedeur and Tennessee's overall talent level would have settled that game in short order. JMU was no pushover but that seems the most likely least likely win.
That leaves:
Thunder Chickens
Sacred Heart
Utah State
Georgia State
UMass
South Florida
Harvard of the South
FIU
So I'm feeling 9-3 as well. But I think the overarching point is that for us to harbor realistic expectations of winning against schedules like we played last season we at a minimum have to field a roster quality in line with what CU put together last year, perhaps with more offensive v defense balance. And right now we don't have that and are not particularly close.
As an extreme point, watching the Michigan and Washington sidelines you could see that their entire three deep on both sides could probably have run on the field and competed. That's the coin of the realm in today's environment.