2022 Coaching Carousel Begins…

[nelsonmuntz]

Never said it wasn't a big deal - just trying to put it in context. Frost is a beloved son there - he led them to a natty. So, they (the AD, the University President, regents) all decided they would do this. It's not like the AD woke up one morning and quickly decided to make a snap $7.5m decision. They obviously thought it through.

I don't think anyone is thinking these things through. I think a lot of Athletic Departments and alumni are having temper tantrums that cost the schools millions in unnecessary buyouts, blow up seasons, undermine the student athletes by blowing up the seasons, and creating long-term damage to the football programs with these early season guillotines.

College football is not like the pros where a bad record gets a team a better draft pick. In college, a bad record runs off quality players, kills recruiting, and scares off potential successor coaches. Who wants to try to catch a falling knife, as a player or a coach? Even with the stupid mistakes Frost teams kept making, Nebraska has the talent to go 6-6 or even 7-5 this season if Frost had stuck around. That may not be great by Nebraska standards and would probably have gotten Frost fired anyway, but the next staff would have had some players to work with. The wheels are probably coming off Nebraska, ASU and Georgia Tech with these tantrum terminations, and they are probably adding a year or two to any rebuild, or the program gets so gutted by these dumb firings that it becomes the league doormat. The buyout issue is just a giant cherry on the top of these stupidity sundaes.

One other issue I would add is that the conference and networks should step in here too. I don't have a problem with an early season firing if the coach has lost control of the program. But lighting a season on fire because the Athletic Department is having sadzz hurts the TV ratings, which impacts future TV and advertising revenue. Frost and Collins and Edwards can all be fired at year end after they have put up mediocre seasons that included competitive games in October and November.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[UConnJim]

I don't think anyone is thinking these things through. I think a lot of Athletic Departments and alumni are having temper tantrums that cost the schools millions in unnecessary buyouts, blow up seasons, undermine the student athletes by blowing up the seasons, and creating long-term damage to the football programs with these early season guillotines.

College football is not like the pros where a bad record gets a team a better draft pick. In college, a bad record runs off quality players, kills recruiting, and scares off potential successor coaches. Who wants to try to catch a falling knife, as a player or a coach? Even with the stupid mistakes Frost teams kept making, Nebraska has the talent to go 6-6 or even 7-5 this season if Frost had stuck around. That may not be great by Nebraska standards and would probably have gotten Frost fired anyway, but the next staff would have had some players to work with. The wheels are probably coming off Nebraska, ASU and Georgia Tech with these tantrum terminations, and they are probably adding a year or two to any rebuild, or the program gets so gutted by these dumb firings that it becomes the league doormat. The buyout issue is just a giant cherry on the top of these stupidity sundaes.

One other issue I would add is that the conference and networks should step in here too. I don't have a problem with an early season firing if the coach has lost control of the program. But lighting a season on fire because the Athletic Department is having sadzz hurts the TV ratings, which impacts future TV and advertising revenue. Frost and Collins and Edwards can all be fired at year end after they have put up mediocre seasons that included competitive games in October and November.

College football has changed dramatically over the past 3 years as rosters can be rebuilt much faster with the portal and the suspension of the 25 scholarship limit per year. And, for the top schools, NIL also creates opportunities. USC brought in 29 new players this year including 20 transfers and transformed the roster. Texas Tech brought in 32 players including 14 transfers. LSU brought in 30 new players including 15 transfers. Georgia Southern brought in 33 new players including including 11 transfers.

The preliminary results from the 2021 early coaching changes are promising.

USC: 4-8 last year to 4-0 and ranked #6
Texas Tech: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Washington St.: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
LSU: 6-7 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Georgia Southern: 3-9 last year to 3-1 this year (beat Nebraska)
UConn: 1-11 to 1-3 so far this year.

With Frost gone, Nebraska can start interviewing assistant coaches and coaches who are not coaching this year. Plus, you can do deep research on current head coaches.

 

[huskymedic]

Al Golden’s agent does yoemens work…

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

College football has changed dramatically over the past 3 years as rosters can be rebuilt much faster with the portal and the suspension of the 25 scholarship limit per year. And, for the top schools, NIL also creates opportunities. USC brought in 29 new players this year including 20 transfers and transformed the roster. Texas Tech brought in 32 players including 14 transfers. LSU brought in 30 new players including 15 transfers. Georgia Southern brought in 33 new players including including 11 transfers.

The preliminary results from the 2021 early coaching changes are promising.

USC: 4-8 last year to 4-0 and ranked #6
Texas Tech: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Washington St.: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
LSU: 6-7 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Georgia Southern: 3-9 last year to 3-1 this year (beat Nebraska)
UConn: 1-11 to 1-3 so far this year.

With Frost gone, Nebraska can start interviewing assistant coaches and coaches who are not coaching this year. Plus, you can do deep research on current head coaches.

Well....kind of. Early season schedules for P5 schools are usually soft. Let's see how they do when they get deeper into conference play.

But...it does like good early returns.

 

[UConnJim]

Well....kind of. Early season schedules for P5 schools are usually soft. Let's see how they do when they get deeper into conference play.

But...it does like good early returns.

In general, many of the listed schools have played decent schedules so far including UConn.

Texas Tech: Murray St., Houston, NC State, Texas
USC: Rice, Stanford, Fresno St., Oregon St.
Washington St.: Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado St., Oregon
LSU: Florida St., Southern, Miss. St., New Mexico
UConn: Utah St., CCSU, Syracuse, Michigan, NC St.

 

[WNConn]

Al Golden’s agent does yoemens work…

Chadwell seems primed for a bigger job, but who knows

 

[J187Money]

I don't think anyone is thinking these things through. I think a lot of Athletic Departments and alumni are having temper tantrums that cost the schools millions in unnecessary buyouts, blow up seasons, undermine the student athletes by blowing up the seasons, and creating long-term damage to the football programs with these early season guillotines.

College football is not like the pros where a bad record gets a team a better draft pick. In college, a bad record runs off quality players, kills recruiting, and scares off potential successor coaches. Who wants to try to catch a falling knife, as a player or a coach? Even with the stupid mistakes Frost teams kept making, Nebraska has the talent to go 6-6 or even 7-5 this season if Frost had stuck around. That may not be great by Nebraska standards and would probably have gotten Frost fired anyway, but the next staff would have had some players to work with. The wheels are probably coming off Nebraska, ASU and Georgia Tech with these tantrum terminations, and they are probably adding a year or two to any rebuild, or the program gets so gutted by these dumb firings that it becomes the league doormat. The buyout issue is just a giant cherry on the top of these stupidity sundaes.

One other issue I would add is that the conference and networks should step in here too. I don't have a problem with an early season firing if the coach has lost control of the program. But lighting a season on fire because the Athletic Department is having sadzz hurts the TV ratings, which impacts future TV and advertising revenue. Frost and Collins and Edwards can all be fired at year end after they have put up mediocre seasons that included competitive games in October and November.

I generally agree - but what keeps happening is these buyouts or contract increases are being paid by impatient boosters so the money isn't coming from the schools - at least not directly. Money that wouldn't be given otherwise.

To me it is crazy - everyone is bidding against themselves to drive up the price / terms and then eating the s sandwich when it doesn't work out. Own goals all over the place.

MSU is another great example - there was no reason to pay $9.5M a year to Tucker. The fact that some money (we don't know how much) was funded by 3rd parties means that the taxpayers aren't on the hook for the whole thing - but still. Who else was bidding for him? He was already making $5.5M - with very little track record. Now you have a stadium full of people pissed off about the program (as they should be) but also it becomes personal because of what Tucker makes. That contract isn't a year old - and the entire stadium was booing him on Saturday.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

College football has changed dramatically over the past 3 years as rosters can be rebuilt much faster with the portal and the suspension of the 25 scholarship limit per year. And, for the top schools, NIL also creates opportunities. USC brought in 29 new players this year including 20 transfers and transformed the roster. Texas Tech brought in 32 players including 14 transfers. LSU brought in 30 new players including 15 transfers. Georgia Southern brought in 33 new players including including 11 transfers.

The preliminary results from the 2021 early coaching changes are promising.

USC: 4-8 last year to 4-0 and ranked #6
Texas Tech: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Washington St.: 7-6 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
LSU: 6-7 last year to 3-1 this year (receiving votes in coaches poll)
Georgia Southern: 3-9 last year to 3-1 this year (beat Nebraska)
UConn: 1-11 to 1-3 so far this year.

With Frost gone, Nebraska can start interviewing assistant coaches and coaches who are not coaching this year. Plus, you can do deep research on current head coaches.

Nebraska can do deep research on coaches with Frost blowing close games and keeping it competitive for fans and TV. College football has also changed dramatically in that a roster can be taken apart much faster with the portal and the suspension of the 25 scholarship limit per year.

 

[UConnJim]

Nebraska can do deep research on coaches with Frost blowing close games and keeping it competitive for fans and TV. College football has also changed dramatically in that a roster can be taken apart much faster with the portal and the suspension of the 25 scholarship limit per year.

But that is not what has happened, it’s what you fear could happen. USC lost a lot of talent, but they brought in better talent.

And, you can’t do a good job search when the incumbent is in place. Do you think Benedict would have gone to Idaho for a week during the season to interview a coach unless he had already fired Edsall? Now, Nebraska can openly interview candidates like Benedict did.

The ethics of looking for a new coach while the existing coach is in place would turn off most top candidates as they will think you will do the same to them down the road.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I don't think anyone is thinking these things through. I think a lot of Athletic Departments and alumni are having temper tantrums that cost the schools millions in unnecessary buyouts, blow up seasons, undermine the student athletes by blowing up the seasons, and creating long-term damage to the football programs with these early season guillotines.

College football is not like the pros where a bad record gets a team a better draft pick. In college, a bad record runs off quality players, kills recruiting, and scares off potential successor coaches. Who wants to try to catch a falling knife, as a player or a coach? Even with the stupid mistakes Frost teams kept making, Nebraska has the talent to go 6-6 or even 7-5 this season if Frost had stuck around. That may not be great by Nebraska standards and would probably have gotten Frost fired anyway, but the next staff would have had some players to work with. The wheels are probably coming off Nebraska, ASU and Georgia Tech with these tantrum terminations, and they are probably adding a year or two to any rebuild, or the program gets so gutted by these dumb firings that it becomes the league doormat. The buyout issue is just a giant cherry on the top of these stupidity sundaes.

One other issue I would add is that the conference and networks should step in here too. I don't have a problem with an early season firing if the coach has lost control of the program. But lighting a season on fire because the Athletic Department is having sadzz hurts the TV ratings, which impacts future TV and advertising revenue. Frost and Collins and Edwards can all be fired at year end after they have put up mediocre seasons that included competitive games in October and November.

College football is big business. Now, it doesn't mean they are smart with all their expenditures all the time but these schools have the luxury of making mistakes and writing them off. Just like big corporations and other institutions. Not every millionaire and billionaire make smart decisions all the time but in their worlds it doesn't matter so much because they can keep writing big checks.

Going 6-6, 7-5, and even 8-4 at these schools is often not good enough, so they throw out the incumbent and bring in someone new.

The instant eligibility transfer portal and NIL monies from boosters/collectives now make it more strategic to fire coaches earlier in the season than ever before. Often, no matter how much the buyout.

It is what it is. It's sad in some ways but this is the new reality.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

College football is big business. Now, it doesn't mean they are smart with all their expenditures all the time but these schools have the luxury of making mistakes and writing them off. Just like big corporations and other institutions. Not every millionaire and billionaire make smart decisions all the time but in their worlds it doesn't matter so much because they can keep writing big checks.

Going 6-6, 7-5, and even 8-4 at these schools is often not good enough, so they throw out the incumbent and bring in someone new.

The instant eligibility transfer portal and NIL monies from boosters/collectives now make it more strategic to fire coaches earlier in the season than ever before. Often, no matter how much the buyout.

It is what it is. It's sad in some ways but this is the new reality.

Actually, it is exactly the opposite. The population of good players has not increased because of the transfer portal or NIL. All these bad decisions do is move whatever talent programs like Georgia Tech, Nebraska and ASU have to another program.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Actually, it is exactly the opposite. The population of good players has not increased because of the transfer portal or NIL. All these bad decisions do is move whatever talent programs like Georgia Tech, Nebraska and ASU have to another program.

Can you back that up with examples? Because you would have to show these sorts of programs only showing a net loss (i.e. no programs showing improvements by using the portal and NIL to improve). Personally, I think you are conflating these aspects to bolster your arguement against early season coaching firings.

 

[UConnJim]

Actually, it is exactly the opposite. The population of good players has not increased because of the transfer portal or NIL. All these bad decisions do is move whatever talent programs like Georgia Tech, Nebraska and ASU have to another program.

This is not correct. Look at the current top 5: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St., Michigan, and Clemson. Total transfers out = 62. Total transfers in = 10. Here are the numbers by school:

Georgia: 13 out, 0 in.
Alabama: 20 out, 5 in.
Ohio St.: 6 out, 1 in.
Michigan: 12 out, 3 in.
Clemson: 11 out, 1 in.

Even UConn has benefitted: Transfers to P5's = 3. Transfers from P5's = 9 (plus 3 others that played at a P5)

What the transfer portal is doing is allowing the talent on the rosters of the top schools to move to other schools and get more playing time. That said, coaching changes will result in transfers for a variety of reasons, but we have not seen this big talent drain from lower level P5s and G5's to top P5 schools. It has been the opposite.

 

[uconndogs]

.........but we have not seen this big talent drain from lower level P5s and G5's to top P5 schools. It has been the opposite.

It's still early. In my opinion it's only a matter of time before a lot of the top talent that emerges at lower-level programs gets lured away by NIL money. The largest and most established programs will have the most money at hand. Does the next Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger stick around at their initial respective programs when some SEC program is willing to put millions more in their pocket over the course of their college careers?

I get the argument that most of the top talent already ends up in top echelon programs. But that talent that doesn't is certainly going to get tempted by the potential of more money.

 

[UConnJim]

It's still early. In my opinion it's only a matter of time before a lot of the top talent that emerges at lower-level programs gets lured away by NIL money. The largest and most established programs will have the most money at hand. Does the next Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger stick around at their initial respective programs when some SEC program is willing to put millions more in their pocket over the course of their college careers?

I get the argument that most of the top talent already ends up in top echelon programs. But that talent that doesn't is certainly going to get tempted by the potential of more money.

There's more to it. If you are a successful QB at a school and are the clear starter going forward, are you going to risk not starting by transferring? Most likely not. When you look at the top P5 programs, they have 4* and 5* recruits sitting on the bench so a starting position is not guaranteed.

Look at a school like USC which stockpiled QB talent. Three of their QB recruits are now starters at other P5 schools: JT Daniels at West Virginia, Kedon Slovis at Pitt, and Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss. QB is the most important position in college football and the talent is going to be more spread out than in the past.

Look at the Northeastern P5 schools and where their QBs came from:

BC - Notre Dame
Syracuse - Miss. St.
Pitt - USC
West Virginia - USC
Maryland - Alabama
Penn St. - HS recruit (but lost Levis to Kentucky and Roberson to UConn)

Personally, I think UConn in the future will be constantly bringing in transfer QBs as it is hard to recruit top QBs out of HS, but you can recruit them in the transfer portal.

 

[uconndogs]

The best talent will end up where the money is. The pre-eminent programs may lose there back-ups, but they will get to choose their talent. When they need to improve talent and they see it in second-tier programs they will go after it.......with money. Who knows, they may even guarantee a starting slot.

This is a professional sports model. Take a look at major league baseball. Championship teams almost always have the highest payrolls. NIL and the transfer portal have only just begun to re-make college athletics. Wait until the SEC and BiG continue their quest for ever larger shares of the available media revenue. They won't let the NCAA stand in their way of that quest. Their football and basketball programs will be professional franchises of their respective universities. Kids will stand to make very big money.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There's more to it. If you are a successful QB at a school and are the clear starter going forward, are you going to risk not starting by transferring? Most likely not. When you look at the top P5 programs, they have 4* and 5* recruits sitting on the bench so a starting position is not guaranteed.

Look at a school like USC which stockpiled QB talent. Three of their QB recruits are now starters at other P5 schools: JT Daniels at West Virginia, Kedon Slovis at Pitt, and Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss. QB is the most important position in college football and the talent is going to be more spread out than in the past.

Look at the Northeastern P5 schools and where their QBs came from:

BC - Notre Dame
Syracuse - Miss. St.
Pitt - USC
West Virginia - USC
Maryland - Alabama
Penn St. - HS recruit (but lost Levis to Kentucky and Roberson to UConn)

Personally, I think UConn in the future will be constantly bringing in transfer QBs as it is hard to recruit top QBs out of HS, but you can recruit them in the transfer portal.

I would like this 100 times if I could. Sitting on the bench at Ohio State or USC could cost a player tens or even hundreds of thousands of NIL money compared to going to another school and starting.

I think people are also conflating TV money with NIL money. The TV money gets mixed in with a lot of other dollars at the athletic department and by extension at the university, and there are still rules about how much of that money can be used to pay players.

There are basically no limits to NIL money. So if you are some tech or Wall Street billionaire from wherever, and you decide that you want some school to play with the big boys, you can start writing checks. I have always felt that urban based schools will have a big advantage in NIL just because there are more likely to be a critical mass of wealthy people in cities that can fund a major NIL push.

The most productive use of UConn's athletic department's time would be to work the hedge fund community in Fairfield County. A lot of them came from elite private schools, so they don't have an alma mater with a big time athletic program. Many of them are not quite rich enough to buy a professional franchise, and a few of them have stubbed their toes legally which also makes owning a pro team challenging. But they could have a HUGE impact on UConn, and UConn should be happy to stroke their egos to build up the athletic program.

 

[uconndogs]

Question? If you are sitting on the bench at one of the major programs aren't you second best to the guys who is starting? Also, wouldn't you look to go to another pre-eminent program where the money is likely better than a second-tier program? Kids will transfer to second-tier programs, but they will be the players that can't find the field with pre-eminent programs..............because they've proven to be less talented.

 

[UConnJim]

Kids will transfer to second-tier programs, but they will be the players that can't find the field with pre-eminent programs..............because they've proven to be less talented.

This isn't always correct. There could be a logjam of talent at the player's position. Many times, the transfer loses the position battle for a number of reasons which may not mean they are a lesser player. Look at these QBs that transferred because they didn't win the starter job. Which one do you think had more talent?

Starter is in bold:
Tyler Palko or Joe Flacco at Pitt.
Mike Glennon or Russell Wilson at NC State
Jake Fromm or Justin Fields at Georgia
Jamelle Holloway or Troy Aikman at Oklahoma
Kyle Allen or Kyler Murray at Texas A&M
Dwayne Haskins or Joe Burrow at Ohio State
Jeff Driskell or Jacoby Brissett Florida
Brian Hoyer or Nick Foles Michigan St.
Todd Blackledge or Jeff Hostetler at Penn St.
Tua Taguvailoa or Jalen Hurts at Alabama

 

[uconndogs]

This isn't always correct. There could be a logjam of talent at the player's position. Many times, the transfer loses the position battle for a number of reasons which may not mean they are a lesser player. Look at these QBs that transferred because they didn't win the starter job. Which one do you think had more talent?

Starter is in bold:
Tyler Palko or Joe Flacco at Pitt.
Mike Glennon or Russell Wilson at NC State
Jake Fromm or Justin Fields at Georgia
Jamelle Holloway or Troy Aikman at Oklahoma
Kyle Allen or Kyler Murray at Texas A&M
Dwayne Haskins or Joe Burrow at Ohio State
Jeff Driskell or Jacoby Brissett Florida
Brian Hoyer or Nick Foles Michigan St.
Todd Blackledge or Jeff Hostetler at Penn St.
Tua Taguvailoa or Jalen Hurts at Alabama

Well, you could certainly argue some of those, but just about all those kids went to other high level P5 programs. My point is that the very top talent will stay in that group of programs and with NIL and other money that's available the concentration of talent will be even more pronounced because................that's where the money will be.

 

[ktuck911]

Going 6-6, 7-5, and even 8-4 at these schools is often not good enough, so they throw out the incumbent and bring in someone new.

Those records are good enough for us... That's bowl eligibility.. baby steps...

 

[ThabeetDown]

Chadwell seems primed for a bigger job, but who knows

Georgia Tech should be an attractive job. In a major market (NIL), strong academics, a relatively winnable conference (outside of Clemson it's pretty much up for grabs on a yearly basis) and fertile local recruiting region. Sure, you're always going to be little brother to UGA but it's not a bad job. Not an easy job given you are an ACC team in an SEC territory, but there shouldn't be a reason they can't be successful with the right coach.

I think that has been their issue -- look at where their last coaches came from:

Geoff Collins -- Temple (did have SEC background at UF/Miss State but in terms of HC experience, it's still Temple)

Paul Johnson -- Navy (lots of factors why this was or wasn't a good hire, but did have a very successful first 7 seasons before the wheels fell off, not to mention running a gimmicky offense)

Chan Galey -- this is already 20 years ago, so kind of nice they've only had 3 coaches in 20 years. But his most previous college HC job before GT was at Samford (not Stanford, Samford). Obviously had a lot of NFL coaching experience, which we've seen doesn't translate a lot into CFB.

If I'm GT, I'm looking at current HC (or previous HC experience) at southern/southeastern schools. Chadwell makes sense for this, same with Todd Monken (who's also been listed) and in a way his brother, Todd (current Army HC but former Ga So HC). I think Clay Helton wouldn't be the worst choice either -- he's down the road at Ga Southern and has the USC experience which is a great sell (even though this is only his first year down south). Charles Huff at Marshall is only 39 and could be a rising star (big win at ND, not southern HC exp but at least assistant at Miss St and Bama).

 

[pepband99]

I think people are also conflating TV money with NIL money.

...says the guy that is conflating tax dollars, or even "normal" AD revenue, with booster $ for buyouts. The really interesting thing that will happen is when this generation of boosters fades away. Who would step up at mediocre-for-decades Nebraska, who is in their 40s now?

 

[hardcorehusky]

Question? If you are sitting on the bench at one of the major programs aren't you second best to the guys who is starting? Also, wouldn't you look to go to another pre-eminent program where the money is likely better than a second-tier program? Kids will transfer to second-tier programs, but they will be the players that can't find the field with pre-eminent programs..............because they've proven to be less talented.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Sometimes coaches choose kids as their guy for their own reasons, talent aside. RE wasn't the first or last coach to do that.