2020-2021 Season in Jeopardy

[NewCorn]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

32,000 people are dead, so far.

 

[Dokey]

N

The economy is lives for most Americans.

No.

 

[npignatjr]

32,000 people are dead, so far.

Now 0.009%

 

[npignatjr]

And as of 2/15/20, 0.000000% had died.

True, as a percentage miniscule. Do the same for cancer, heart disease, abortion, the seasonal flu. drug overdoses.

 

[diggerfoot]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

 

[npignatjr]

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders were using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

As soon as I find the photo it was from a NY newspaper will link it in. So all had on gloves and were cleaning their hands before they touched anything during the whole subway experience? The answer is no, my point is they were mostly being smart, which is good, must be smart.

 

[npignatjr]

N

No.

No? Having no money, no job, no house.

 

[oldude]

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

You have a lot to unpack in your post. Let me just respond to one point. The state of NY has tested a higher percentage of residents than any other state in the country. The latest fatality rate is 6.3% according to Johns Hopkins tracking website, among the highest in the nation. If as you indicate, the more tests that are done, the lower the fatality rate, why is N.Y. so much higher?

As for social distancing working, all you have to do is go to the supermarket or walk in the park to see people, many with masks on, take a wide berth around you to understand that just about everyone gets the message. No college kids are going to beaches in FL & CA anymore. Highways are empty during rush hour. I watched a video taken in Times Square a few days ago during midday and the streets were incredibly empty. I lived in NYC for 8 years when I was younger, and Times Square was always busy, even at midnight in wintertime.

 

[oldude]

because facts matter, fudging numbers skews the curve.

I agree that facts matter. As I and others have pointed out, the Federal Government has recently requested data from all states in deaths “presumed to be” from coronavirus as a separate statistic. NY and other states are providing those numbers separately. You can misinterpret the NY numbers as you choose, but it doesn’t change the facts.

 

[meyers7]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

That's the 2nd time I've seen that number. Where are you guys getting that??? Not even close to being accurate. USA sitting at 330 million people. We've had about 34,000 die. That's .0103%. And it's only going to go up.

 

[diggerfoot]

You have a lot to unpack in your post. Let me just respond to one point. The state of NY has tested a higher percentage of residents than any other state in the country. The latest fatality rate is 6.3% according to Johns Hopkins tracking website, among the highest in the nation. If as you indicate, the more tests that are done, the lower the fatality rate, why is N.Y. so much higher?

As for social distancing working, all you have to do is go to the supermarket or walk in the park to see people, many with masks on, take a wide berth around you to understand that just about everyone gets the message. No college kids are going to beaches in FL & CA anymore. Highways are empty during rush hour. I watched a video taken in Times Square a few days ago during midday and the streets were incredibly empty. I lived in NYC for 8 years when I was younger, and Times Square was always busy, even at midnight in wintertime.

Things affecting fatality rates:
Percent of population tested.
Age of population affected.
Health of immune systems of the population (urban states like NY will have > fatality rates).
Overwhelmed health care facilities (where people that otherwise could be saved die).

The latter offers an answer to a question I will turn around on you. Certainly lack of social distancing will lead to more infections, which will lead to more fatalities. Yet if you factor out overwhelmed health care facilities from all the fatalities from all the infections (including overwhelmed workers whose immune systems become compromised), particularly in urban areas, what is the mechanism of action by which less social distancing means a greater fatality rate? Greater fatalities? Yes. Greater rate? By what biological explanation?

My opinion is the fatality rate is less but the infection rate greater than what has been estimated. Originally I saw R factors of 1.8 for COVID-19, but that was before the miniscule size of the droplets were identified. I bet the R factor is more in line with measles than the flu, but the fatality rate is less than 2%.

 

[reno tony]

I thought this had something to do with Alex Trebek.

 

[JonathanXIV]

because facts matter, fudging numbers skews the curve.

You are missing the point. Completely. First, COVID-19 impacts our entire health system, including individuals who are deprived of vital care because of an overwhelmed health care system. Second, why do you think it is both valid and appropriate to compare one month of COVID-19 deaths with annual totals for heart disease, cancer, etc.? Health problems that we are currently designed to process and handle, unlike the pandemic. Finally, what makes you think that “opening up the economy” won’t have a negative impact on our ability to halt the spread of the virus. Bluntly, addressing the virus and its impact on the economy is a lot more interrelated than you suggest.

Yes, facts matter. So does the interpretation of those facts.

 

[UcMiami]

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

When you deal with small percentages like 2%, the missed deaths vs. missed detection of cases are very different numbers - miss five deaths and that needs to be offset by missing 250 cases.

When looking at cases and deaths from various countries because the age curve of lethality is clearly weighted toward senior citizens there will be some variation of percentage based on a country's age distribution - Italy is an older population so it's fatality rate will naturally be higher for example. The warning sign to me regarding testing is if a country is testing deeply enough to catch most of the cases then generally the death rate should match the 2-3% rate we see in the best cases. If the rate is significantly higher (and the health system hasn't crashed) then the testing is not wide enough to catch most of the cases.

In the US the state by state numbers are a case in point - the best case state scenarios are 10% or less of tests are positive and deaths are at or below 2 percent of positive tests. The worst state scenarios are 50% or more of tests are positive, and deaths are at 5+ percent of positive tests.

 

[Cedar]

My opinion is the fatality rate is less but the infection rate greater than what has been estimated. Originally I saw R factors of 1.8 for COVID-19, but that was before the miniscule size of the droplets were identified. I bet the R factor is more in line with measles than the flu, but the fatality rate is less than 2%.

Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the R0 value for COVID-19 is “likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.”

Measles has an R0 that is "often cited to be 12-18," and the flu has an R0 of about 1.3, according to the New York Times.

According to Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University professor of medicine, the coronavirus death rate may be “orders of magnitude” lower than the initial estimates.

 

[diggerfoot]

Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the R0 value for COVID-19 is “likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.”

Measles has an R0 that is "often cited to be 12-18," and the flu has an R0 of about 1.3, according to the New York Times.

According to Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University professor of medicine, the coronavirus death rate may be “orders of magnitude” lower than the initial estimates.

Interesting. Thank you for providing those numbers. They are in line with what I suspect is happening.

 

[Monte]

I think our country has more "experts" on this problem than any country in the world!

 

[JonathanXIV]

I think our country has more "experts" on this problem than any country in the world!

I think the Boneyard has more “experts” on this problem than anywhere else in the world.

 

[Kaizen]

There are 22 million people collecting unemployment aid out of total 330 million people. Assuming only 50% of the people are supposed to work (minus under 18 and old retirees), that is 165 million.

So US unemployment rate is 13.3% which is bigger than 1940 big recession's 10%. And the rate could increase in the next few weeks or months to 20%. This is really scary.

Layoffs are mounting in nearly every sector as businesses have been forced to close in an effort to stem the spread of covid-19. Many companies that remain open report a huge drop-off in sales. New data show manufacturing production cratered in March by the most since 1946, and new home construction saw the biggest decline in nearly 40 years.

 

[NewCorn]

Now 0.009%

Now, 34, 386. mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, children.

 

[npignatjr]

That's the 2nd time I've seen that number. Where are you guys getting that??? Not even close to being accurate. USA sitting at 330 million people. We've had about 34,000 die. That's .0103%. And it's only going to go up.

Math, I used the number at the time.

 

[npignatjr]

 

[npignatjr]

Now, 34, 386. mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, children.

Average age in this country 85, with underlying health issues as with the majority of deaths.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Average age in this country 85, with underlying health issues as with the majority of deaths.

Your point?

 

[npignatjr]

Your point?

Nothing giving facts.