2020-2021 Season in Jeopardy

[JonathanXIV]

There are at least four factors working to mitigate the severity and length of an epidemic/pandemic. One is our own immune systems that are fully up to the task. The second are post-infectious treatments for immune systems not quite up to the task. A third is a vaccination that achieve immunity without infection. A fourth is the infectious disease itself.

In regards to the latter, the "smart" virus seeks to become less lethal to a host, as this is one of two factors helping it to survive better. The other factor is a suitably lengthy incubation period. The virus becomes "smart" by mutating. Those that mutate quickly tend to be "smarter" than those that don't. (Yes, I am grossly anthropomorphizing). Allegedly (I have not seen confirming research) this is a fast mutating virus.

So we have a situation where those under sixty tend to satisfy the first factor and several post-infectious treatments in clinical trials that are promising for the second factor, plus doctors already are using some of those post-infectious treatments with anecdotal success. If the virus also "learns" quickly, the continued length and severity of COVID-19 should be shortened greatly even in the absence of a vaccine .....

...... though a vaccine, of course, results in far, far greater profits than even post-infectious treatments.

While your statement about viruses tending to mutate to a less lethal mutation, this is driven by the evolutionary pressure to not kill the host so the virus can spread more widely. Given that this appears to be a virus that is asymptomatic for days while the virus is spread, there is reason to think that this virus may not mutate to a less lethal form.

 

[Boreifs]

Then you should listen to the number of research scientists who are working the vaccine that agree with this assumption. These guys are working parallel testing at a rate that is unprecedented. Even the most conservative opinions say there will be a safe and effective vaccine a year from now. In most cases when it comes to nova viruses it takes twice the time.

I have seen interviews with many leading vaccine researchers; not one of them is anywhere close to being that optimistic.

 

[Boreifs]

Right! They released a prisoner yesterday, and he went and murdered someone!

How many prisoners released didn’t murder someone? Using one example is just totally ridiculous.

 

[diggerfoot]

While your statement about viruses tending to mutate to a less lethal mutation, this is driven by the evolutionary pressure to not kill the host so the virus can spread more widely. Given that this appears to be a virus that is asymptomatic for days while the virus is spread, there is reason to think that this virus may not mutate to a less lethal form.

The main transmission for this virus is by coughing. Thus, asymptomatic transmission is low. It can happen, but not to the point that it would nullify the evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. On the other hand, different parts of a genome are more vulnerable to mutation than others. This could be a nonfactor, but I was tossing out a hypothetical for why length and severity might be less. Of course, the best solution is to effectively test, target and isolate. The countries that do that most effectively will be the ones that relax social distancing requirements the quickest.

In any case, the end game is to get an R factor less than 1, whether it takes a profit friendly vaccine or not.

 

[JonathanXIV]

The main transmission for this virus is by coughing. Thus, asymptomatic transmission is low. It can happen, but not to the point that it would nullify the evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. On the other hand, different parts of a genome are more vulnerable to mutation than others. This could be a nonfactor, but I was tossing out a hypothetical for why length and severity might be less. Of course, the best solution is to effectively test, target and isolate. The countries that do that most effectively will be the ones that relax social distancing requirements the quickest.

In any case, the end game is to get an R factor less than 1, whether it takes a profit friendly vaccine or not.

Agree with all of that. Nice to have an intelligent discussion on this issue.

 

[Dokey]

Bouchercon, the world mystery convention, which gathers 1500 mystery book fans every October, just announced it was canceling the 2020 edition. That might give you some idea of what people expect for at least the fall college semester.

 

[Dokey]

Liberty University did it.

Liberty’s decision was tied to a political allegiance that puts the economy above lives.

 

[uconnfan68]

Everyone needs to read this very short article about the 1968 pandemic (1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC) and realize that COVID-19 is probably never going to go away.

There was a pandemic in 1968? Who would have noticed between assassinations of MLK, RFK, the race riots and the Democratic convention fiasco in Chicago?

 

[Plebe]

 

[Dokey]

Makes sense.

 

[willtalk]

In respect to prison inmates, you only need to inoculate the guards/staff. The prisoners just need to be kept isolated. In other words no visitors, just like the rest of us. The same for any other group of people in institutions- staff inoculated and the rest isolated.

Law enforcement personal need to be on top of the list. Those over 60 just need to stay the hell at home. I have a friend ( 79) who is totally pissed that he can no longer go out to eat every day and do everything else he used to do. He still goes out and but is now concerned that they might start checking for masks. Stupid shit has no business going anywhere except the store. Most of us old really have no business being out at all. Making us a priority would be a total waste.

 

[oldude]

In respect to prison inmates, you only need to inoculate the guards/staff. The prisoners just need to be kept isolated. In other words no visitors, just like the rest of us. The same for any other group of people in institutions- staff inoculated and the rest isolated.

Law enforcement personal need to be on top of the list. Those over 60 just need to stay the hell at home. I have a friend ( 79) who is totally pissed that he can no longer go out to eat every day and do everything else he used to do. He still goes out and but is now concerned that they might start checking for masks. Stupid # 2 has no business going anywhere except the store. Most of us old really have no business being out at all. Making us a priority would be a total waste.

Many prisons, particularly overcrowded ones, do not have the ability to isolate prisoners. Most prisons have two or more prisoners to a cell. Meals, showers and any possibility of exercise often occur in communal areas.

 

[VaConnFan11]

There was a pandemic in 1968? Who would have noticed between assassinations of MLK, RFK, the race riots and the Democratic convention fiasco in Chicago?

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

 

[oldude]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

There is always a danger in assuming one virus is the same as another. While it is true that H3N2, the So-called Hong King flu, killed 100k Americans in 1968 and over 1 million worldwide over 1968-69 there are both similarities as well as significant differences between it an Covid-19. H3N2 was a type of avian flu that infected tens of millions of people worldwide and in the U.S. Like Covid-19, H3N2 was highly infectious with estimates of over 40% of the population coming down with the Virus.

But there was some latent immunity in some individuals from earlier outbreaks of the H2N2 virus, a similar strain of avian flu. Most cases were mild, and the mortality rate from H3N2 hovered around that of the seasonal flu at 0.1-0.2 %, which is 10-20 times less than COVID-19.

So the question for individuals, politicians and business leaders is what level of mortality is acceptable to return to some form of normalcy? It is likely that Covid-19 will push U.S. deaths to between 60,000-100,000, assuming we do everything right to battle the pandemic. But if the infection rates begin to reach the same levels that existed with H3N2 in 1968, with 40% of Americans contracting COVID-19, are we prepared as a nation to accept up to 1-2 million deaths as a result?

 

[Boreifs]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

No Governor has said that. I’m guessing you don’t work in a hospital.

 

[Boreifs]

There is always a danger in assuming one virus is the same as another. While it is true that H3N2, the So-called Hong King flu, killed 100k Americans in 1968 and over 1 million worldwide over 1968-69 there are both similarities as well as significant differences between it an Covid-19. H3N2 was a type of avian flu that infected tens of millions of people worldwide and in the U.S. Like Covid-19, H3N2 was highly infectious with estimates of over 40% of the population coming down with the Virus.

But there was some latent immunity in some individuals from earlier outbreaks of the H2N2 virus, a similar strain of avian flu. Most cases were mild, and the mortality rate from H3N2 hovered around that of the seasonal flu at 0.1-0.2 %, which is 10-20 times less than COVID-19.

So the question for individuals, politicians and business leaders is what level of mortality is acceptable to return to some form of normalcy? It is likely that Covid-19 will push U.S. deaths to between 60,000-100,000, assuming we do everything right to battle the pandemic. But if the infection rates begin to reach the same levels that existed with H3N2 in 1968, with 40% of Americans contracting COVID-19, are we prepared as a nation to accept up to 1-2 million deaths as a result?

No

 

[hoopsfan22]

What happens if some schools are open for business and willing to play games, but others aren't? Does the NCAA make the ultimate decision that if not all can play then none can play? Do teams that aren't allowed to play just forfeit games to the teams that are willing to play? This patchwork of different laws across different states is potentially going to be a nightmare for the NCAA to sort out, almost like the tourney could have been when various schools and states started pulling out before the whole thing was canceled.

 

[Littlemin]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

 

[oldude]

What happens if some schools are open for business and willing to play games, but others aren't? Does the NCAA make the ultimate decision that if not all can play then none can play? Do teams that aren't allowed to play just forfeit games to the teams that are willing to play? This patchwork of different laws across different states is potentially going to be a nightmare for the NCAA to sort out, almost like the tourney could have been when various schools and states started pulling out before the whole thing was canceled.

Based on the decision-making process to shut down college sports, it would appear that the decisions to restart college sports will not reside in the NCAA, but rather with each respective conference, Of course that presents many of the same issues. What if all but 1-2 schools in a particular conference choose to restart sports? Will it be all sports or just sports like tennis & golf where some level of social distancing can be preserved? Will fans be allowed in to watch games and will they be required to wear masks?

The myriad of issues associated with restarting colleges and sports competition are virtually mind boggling.

 

[oldude]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

 

[JonathanXIV]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

In an average month NYC has 5000 deaths from all causes. In the last month NYC had over 18,000 deaths. Frankly, your use of statistics obscures what is happening as opposed to illuminating. I disagree with your premise.

 

[VaConnFan11]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

We don't know what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have had it and showed very minor or no symptoms at all. Early on and it still may be the case, we were (are) only testing people that show symptoms. I expect we won't know the mortality rate until late this year or early next.

 

[Wally East]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

How contagious are fatal car accidents? And, actually, we do a LOT to restrict driving and to restrict driving while intoxicated. We do a LOT to fight seasonal influenza including encouraging everyone to get vaccinated every year.

This is not like the seasonal flu. It's a lot more lethal. We are doing what we have to do to prevent additional deaths. Opening things up too soon (without the proper measures including mass testing) has the potential to make what we've done so far close to meaningless.

 

[oldude]

We don't know what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have had it and showed very minor or no symptoms at all. Early on and it still may be the case, we were (are) only testing people that show symptoms. I expect we won't know the mortality rate until late this year or early next.

Point taken, which absolutely calls for a massive national testing program to include both diagnostic as well as antibody tests to reassure Americans that it’s safe to go back to work. As a number of people have indicated, you can open businesses, but if Americans are afraid to ride mass transit, eat at restaurants or attend sporting events, any effort to resurrect economic activity will come up short.

 

[npignatjr]

University and colleges are in the same position as all businesses currently shut down. They cannot open until it is safe to do so. Don't forget; the "second spike" of the 1918 pandemic was worse ( in terms of total infections and deaths ) than the original outbreak. As a result; the schools should not open until there is a readily available effective treatment to limit the course of this virus, once a person is infected, and 2. a vaccine is nationally available. Opening our society simply using the metric of a " low infection rate number" is not going to be enough. The virus can spread just as easily with a .01% infection rate as with a 15% infection rate. It just takes a bit longer.. But not that much longer, because we are dealing with a geometric level of growth. The good news is; Rutgers Univ. has just received approval for a saliva based test....which will be faster, simpler and require fewer people to handle each specimen. That means; universal testing will speed up. There are signs that certain therapeutic treatments are showing efficacy....injecting some form of "plasma' derived from "recovered" patients...a technique used in other epidemics/pandemics. If this proves effective, newly infected people will get relief and likely not develop dire consequences. There are indictions of a vaccine being available by next spring, and "in use" on an emergency basis for medical workers as early as September. But the immediate issue is what to do this Fall for colleges and Universities? In my view, it is likely safer to delay the openings...and I don't think holding classes at home is worth the full cost of admission. And, of course, without admission payments, how do the Universities stay financially strong? Obviously, they have to reach into endowments and slow down on expansion. But this is what we all have to do as well, as incomes are cut or eliminated, stock values decline; interest rates and dividends cease....etc. We will have to survive by eating into savings. So will they. What a mess. The longer we endure, the worse things become economically, but the more hopeful they become in terms of health breakthroughs. In the end, we need that most. And if 12 months is our window...that seems bearable.

12 months, mortgages not paid, loans not paid, poverty kills, stress kills. What happens to the millions that work in education alone.

 

[npignatjr]

Liberty’s decision was tied to a political allegiance that puts the economy above lives.

The economy is lives for most Americans.

 

[npignatjr]

Point taken, which absolutely calls for a massive national testing program to include both diagnostic as well as antibody tests to reassure Americans that it’s safe to go back to work. As a number of people have indicated, you can open businesses, but if Americans are afraid to ride mass transit, eat at restaurants or attend sporting events, any effort to resurrect economic activity will come up short.

They are still riding subways in NYC.

 

[huskyd]

I had originally copied this in another thread before reading this one.
_______________________
We forget that WCBB is a very small part of any "college" -even @ UCONN. For WCBB to return college must first return. I haven't seen any credible plans that college will return to anything close to normal 4 months from now. Which college is going to be the first to say yes we accept the risk of getting all our kids back on campus? Even if a college does accept that risk what do you do with a student who test positive? Do you send them home? If you are a parent knowing that kid test negative are you going to ever trust that all the other kids on the campus are negative. I think you will see distance learning as the norm this fall. Courses that cannot be conducted via distance learning will be deferred. This would allowed for most facilities on campus including the gym to remain closed. Each college can then access the situation say in November determine if return to campus for 2nd semester is possible. ( similar to the plan in the article posted above) Closed gyms would obviously mean no basketballs and a basketball season starting in December would push March madness to May.
The UCONN WBB '20-'21 roster was also supposed to include 3 international players. Will this country be open to accepting foreign students back by May or June?

Excellent analysis along with Old Dude's. Touches all the bases. No one knows what the future holds, but it appears that the season will be lost. Athletes will get extensions to make up for time missed. No guarantees that everyone will hang around for an extra year. Que sera, etc.

 

[oldude]

They are still riding subways in NYC.

Yes. Most NYC riders wear masks and practice distancing as well as they can on subways that are fortunately well below capacity. In addition, the MTA disinfects subway cars every day before they are put back in service.

 

[npignatjr]

How contagious are fatal car accidents? And, actually, we do a LOT to restrict driving and to restrict driving while intoxicated. We do a LOT to fight seasonal influenza including encouraging everyone to get vaccinated every year.

This is not like the seasonal flu. It's a lot more lethal. We are doing what we have to do to prevent additional deaths. Opening things up too soon (without the proper measures including mass testing) has the potential to make what we've done so far close to meaningless.

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus