2020-2021 Season in Jeopardy

[diggerfoot]

There are at least four factors working to mitigate the severity and length of an epidemic/pandemic. One is our own immune systems that are fully up to the task. The second are post-infectious treatments for immune systems not quite up to the task. A third is a vaccination that achieve immunity without infection. A fourth is the infectious disease itself.

In regards to the latter, the "smart" virus seeks to become less lethal to a host, as this is one of two factors helping it to survive better. The other factor is a suitably lengthy incubation period. The virus becomes "smart" by mutating. Those that mutate quickly tend to be "smarter" than those that don't. (Yes, I am grossly anthropomorphizing). Allegedly (I have not seen confirming research) this is a fast mutating virus.

So we have a situation where those under sixty tend to satisfy the first factor and several post-infectious treatments in clinical trials that are promising for the second factor, plus doctors already are using some of those post-infectious treatments with anecdotal success. If the virus also "learns" quickly, the continued length and severity of COVID-19 should be shortened greatly even in the absence of a vaccine .....

...... though a vaccine, of course, results in far, far greater profits than even post-infectious treatments.

 

[j66kicker]

First of all, I'm not sure exactly where we are going to be by September, let alone November. If "social distancing" is still in effect the question is moot. If, however, there is freedom of movement to the extent that the players are allowed to participate on the floor then the games can be played. Television brings in more revenue than attendance and the viewing audience is also much larger. I believe that if, and that is a big if, the school is open some of the sports programs will be activated.

This may be true for the NFL, but it is not necessarily true for college football. For a couple P5 conferences (SEC, BIG) it is. Ohio State's ticket/home game in-person fan revenue was about $50 million and the B1G's TV payout was $52 million last year. (Ohio State and Michigan are outliers with $100,000+ always-sold-out stadiums.)

Ohio State AD Gene Smith has 50 million reasons to not want games without fans, but player safety is at top

Smith questions if football players should play games if a campus isn't open to students or crowds

www.cbssports.com

Certainly not true for women's basketball though, and probably not for MBB or any other sport.

 

[cohenzone]

I can't imagine a scenario of games with fans in attendance short of a fully implemented immunization program. Perhaps I am lacking imagination. Now if there were a way to carry on with sports without the crowd - that I could imagine working. Back to the basics.

Agree. The problem is, these are meant to be spectator sports and they still would have to make sure the players aren’t exposed. And how the teams travel Even if you could do all that, you could do standings and all, but without fans, it’s kinda like high level pick up games. Could you do TV and protect the TV personnel and get advertisers. Whether testing all the players, coaches, refs, building managers etc would be good enough absent vaccine is something for doctors to
decide. We all need honest, sound, educated decisions on what and how is ok to start again.

It’s all depressing, but obviously sports is the least of issues for the average person.

 

[Monte]

Incarcerated should be with first responders and military. Prisons, like schools, are places where something like this could spread like wildfire infecting inmates and corrections officers very quickly. The state is responsible for the well being of prisoners, like it or not.

Right! They released a prisoner yesterday, and he went and murdered someone!

 

[hoopsfan22]

Right! They released a prisoner yesterday, and he went and murdered someone!

OK... and?

 

[JonathanXIV]

There are at least four factors working to mitigate the severity and length of an epidemic/pandemic. One is our own immune systems that are fully up to the task. The second are post-infectious treatments for immune systems not quite up to the task. A third is a vaccination that achieve immunity without infection. A fourth is the infectious disease itself.

In regards to the latter, the "smart" virus seeks to become less lethal to a host, as this is one of two factors helping it to survive better. The other factor is a suitably lengthy incubation period. The virus becomes "smart" by mutating. Those that mutate quickly tend to be "smarter" than those that don't. (Yes, I am grossly anthropomorphizing). Allegedly (I have not seen confirming research) this is a fast mutating virus.

So we have a situation where those under sixty tend to satisfy the first factor and several post-infectious treatments in clinical trials that are promising for the second factor, plus doctors already are using some of those post-infectious treatments with anecdotal success. If the virus also "learns" quickly, the continued length and severity of COVID-19 should be shortened greatly even in the absence of a vaccine .....

...... though a vaccine, of course, results in far, far greater profits than even post-infectious treatments.

While your statement about viruses tending to mutate to a less lethal mutation, this is driven by the evolutionary pressure to not kill the host so the virus can spread more widely. Given that this appears to be a virus that is asymptomatic for days while the virus is spread, there is reason to think that this virus may not mutate to a less lethal form.

 

[Boreifs]

Then you should listen to the number of research scientists who are working the vaccine that agree with this assumption. These guys are working parallel testing at a rate that is unprecedented. Even the most conservative opinions say there will be a safe and effective vaccine a year from now. In most cases when it comes to nova viruses it takes twice the time.

I have seen interviews with many leading vaccine researchers; not one of them is anywhere close to being that optimistic.

 

[Boreifs]

Right! They released a prisoner yesterday, and he went and murdered someone!

How many prisoners released didn’t murder someone? Using one example is just totally ridiculous.

 

[diggerfoot]

While your statement about viruses tending to mutate to a less lethal mutation, this is driven by the evolutionary pressure to not kill the host so the virus can spread more widely. Given that this appears to be a virus that is asymptomatic for days while the virus is spread, there is reason to think that this virus may not mutate to a less lethal form.

The main transmission for this virus is by coughing. Thus, asymptomatic transmission is low. It can happen, but not to the point that it would nullify the evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. On the other hand, different parts of a genome are more vulnerable to mutation than others. This could be a nonfactor, but I was tossing out a hypothetical for why length and severity might be less. Of course, the best solution is to effectively test, target and isolate. The countries that do that most effectively will be the ones that relax social distancing requirements the quickest.

In any case, the end game is to get an R factor less than 1, whether it takes a profit friendly vaccine or not.

 

[JonathanXIV]

The main transmission for this virus is by coughing. Thus, asymptomatic transmission is low. It can happen, but not to the point that it would nullify the evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. On the other hand, different parts of a genome are more vulnerable to mutation than others. This could be a nonfactor, but I was tossing out a hypothetical for why length and severity might be less. Of course, the best solution is to effectively test, target and isolate. The countries that do that most effectively will be the ones that relax social distancing requirements the quickest.

In any case, the end game is to get an R factor less than 1, whether it takes a profit friendly vaccine or not.

Agree with all of that. Nice to have an intelligent discussion on this issue.

 

[Dokey]

Bouchercon, the world mystery convention, which gathers 1500 mystery book fans every October, just announced it was canceling the 2020 edition. That might give you some idea of what people expect for at least the fall college semester.

 

[Dokey]

Liberty University did it.

Liberty’s decision was tied to a political allegiance that puts the economy above lives.

 

[uconnfan68]

Everyone needs to read this very short article about the 1968 pandemic (1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC) and realize that COVID-19 is probably never going to go away.

There was a pandemic in 1968? Who would have noticed between assassinations of MLK, RFK, the race riots and the Democratic convention fiasco in Chicago?

 

[Plebe]

 

[Dokey]

Makes sense.

 

[willtalk]

In respect to prison inmates, you only need to inoculate the guards/staff. The prisoners just need to be kept isolated. In other words no visitors, just like the rest of us. The same for any other group of people in institutions- staff inoculated and the rest isolated.

Law enforcement personal need to be on top of the list. Those over 60 just need to stay the hell at home. I have a friend ( 79) who is totally pissed that he can no longer go out to eat every day and do everything else he used to do. He still goes out and but is now concerned that they might start checking for masks. Stupid has no business going anywhere except the store. Most of us old really have no business being out at all. Making us a priority would be a total waste.

 

[oldude]

In respect to prison inmates, you only need to inoculate the guards/staff. The prisoners just need to be kept isolated. In other words no visitors, just like the rest of us. The same for any other group of people in institutions- staff inoculated and the rest isolated.

Law enforcement personal need to be on top of the list. Those over 60 just need to stay the hell at home. I have a friend ( 79) who is totally pissed that he can no longer go out to eat every day and do everything else he used to do. He still goes out and but is now concerned that they might start checking for masks. Stupid # 2 has no business going anywhere except the store. Most of us old really have no business being out at all. Making us a priority would be a total waste.

Many prisons, particularly overcrowded ones, do not have the ability to isolate prisoners. Most prisons have two or more prisoners to a cell. Meals, showers and any possibility of exercise often occur in communal areas.

 

[VaConnFan11]

There was a pandemic in 1968? Who would have noticed between assassinations of MLK, RFK, the race riots and the Democratic convention fiasco in Chicago?

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

 

[oldude]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

There is always a danger in assuming one virus is the same as another. While it is true that H3N2, the So-called Hong King flu, killed 100k Americans in 1968 and over 1 million worldwide over 1968-69 there are both similarities as well as significant differences between it an Covid-19. H3N2 was a type of avian flu that infected tens of millions of people worldwide and in the U.S. Like Covid-19, H3N2 was highly infectious with estimates of over 40% of the population coming down with the Virus.

But there was some latent immunity in some individuals from earlier outbreaks of the H2N2 virus, a similar strain of avian flu. Most cases were mild, and the mortality rate from H3N2 hovered around that of the seasonal flu at 0.1-0.2 %, which is 10-20 times less than COVID-19.

So the question for individuals, politicians and business leaders is what level of mortality is acceptable to return to some form of normalcy? It is likely that Covid-19 will push U.S. deaths to between 60,000-100,000, assuming we do everything right to battle the pandemic. But if the infection rates begin to reach the same levels that existed with H3N2 in 1968, with 40% of Americans contracting COVID-19, are we prepared as a nation to accept up to 1-2 million deaths as a result?

 

[Boreifs]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

No Governor has said that. I’m guessing you don’t work in a hospital.

 

[Boreifs]

There is always a danger in assuming one virus is the same as another. While it is true that H3N2, the So-called Hong King flu, killed 100k Americans in 1968 and over 1 million worldwide over 1968-69 there are both similarities as well as significant differences between it an Covid-19. H3N2 was a type of avian flu that infected tens of millions of people worldwide and in the U.S. Like Covid-19, H3N2 was highly infectious with estimates of over 40% of the population coming down with the Virus.

But there was some latent immunity in some individuals from earlier outbreaks of the H2N2 virus, a similar strain of avian flu. Most cases were mild, and the mortality rate from H3N2 hovered around that of the seasonal flu at 0.1-0.2 %, which is 10-20 times less than COVID-19.

So the question for individuals, politicians and business leaders is what level of mortality is acceptable to return to some form of normalcy? It is likely that Covid-19 will push U.S. deaths to between 60,000-100,000, assuming we do everything right to battle the pandemic. But if the infection rates begin to reach the same levels that existed with H3N2 in 1968, with 40% of Americans contracting COVID-19, are we prepared as a nation to accept up to 1-2 million deaths as a result?

No

 

[hoopsfan22]

What happens if some schools are open for business and willing to play games, but others aren't? Does the NCAA make the ultimate decision that if not all can play then none can play? Do teams that aren't allowed to play just forfeit games to the teams that are willing to play? This patchwork of different laws across different states is potentially going to be a nightmare for the NCAA to sort out, almost like the tourney could have been when various schools and states started pulling out before the whole thing was canceled.

 

[Littlemin]

Killed 100K Americans in 1968 and continues to kill 20K every year even with a vaccine. That's why it irritates me when governors come out and say the government is going to keep you locked down until COVID19 is gone is unrealistic. You can't create herd immunity if you don't have a herd.

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

 

[oldude]

What happens if some schools are open for business and willing to play games, but others aren't? Does the NCAA make the ultimate decision that if not all can play then none can play? Do teams that aren't allowed to play just forfeit games to the teams that are willing to play? This patchwork of different laws across different states is potentially going to be a nightmare for the NCAA to sort out, almost like the tourney could have been when various schools and states started pulling out before the whole thing was canceled.

Based on the decision-making process to shut down college sports, it would appear that the decisions to restart college sports will not reside in the NCAA, but rather with each respective conference, Of course that presents many of the same issues. What if all but 1-2 schools in a particular conference choose to restart sports? Will it be all sports or just sports like tennis & golf where some level of social distancing can be preserved? Will fans be allowed in to watch games and will they be required to wear masks?

The myriad of issues associated with restarting colleges and sports competition are virtually mind boggling.

 

[oldude]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.