2020-2021 Season in Jeopardy

[npignatjr]

Yes. Most NYC riders wear masks and practice distancing as well as they can on subways that are fortunately well below capacity. In addition, the MTA disinfects subway cars every day before they are put back in service.

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

 

[oldude]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

Why would you subtract deaths, many of which occurred in nursing homes with people showing all the symptoms of COVID-19, just because people weren’t tested. In addition, there has been a surge of individuals who are dying at home from heart failure and other health complications, while showing all the symptoms of coronavirus, that also have not been tested.

It should be noted that the CDC is asking all states to now report COVID-19 statistics on a presumptive basis whether or not people ever received a test.

 

[oldude]

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

It certainly works better than doing nothing at all. This doesn’t have to be a Faustian choice between restarting the economy and accepting an increased level of mortality. While it’s going to be an enormous challenge, we can carefully bring back the economy while protecting public health at the same time.

 

[UcMiami]

The first two countries to 'surge' were China and South Korea and they both (eventually) responded aggressively with wide and deep testing and enforced isolation. The death rate in China is about 4% of those who contracted the disease, the death rate in South Korea stands at about 2%. I think those are probably the best representations of the parameters for the virulence of this virus in an environment where most cases of the disease are being discovered by testing. The disparity in death rate can be attributed to an overwhelmed health service in Hubai province.

Currently in the US the death rate stands at around 5% of those testing positive. With wide regional variations from about 2%-7+%. In five weeks we have 31,000 deaths and 104,000 hospitalizations and for the last 3 weeks most of the population has been self isolating. The flu season is about 26 weeks with minimal isolation and average US deaths of about 35,000. You can do all sorts of math with those numbers but this isn't comparable to normal flu season.

NB - most of Europe has a death rate of 10% +/- The UK which toyed with letting the virus rip to develop herd immunity stands at 104,000 known cases and almost 14,000 deaths or close to 14%. Sweden continues on that path with 12,500 cases and 1333 deaths 11%. Germany tested aggressively and isolated and they have 136,000 cases and 3850 deaths - under 3%. Norway and Finland isolated quickly and stand at 2.5% or less.

 

[rvwsleep]

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders were using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

 

[oldude]

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders are using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

Thanks for the on the scene update. I wish upstate NY, where I live, had 80-90% mask usage. My wife and I have been wearing masks to the supermarket or Home Depot for a couple of weeks now, but unfortunately we have been in the minority up here. I’m a little annoyed by that fact. I figure we’re taking steps not to infect others and would greatly appreciate if others demonstrated equal concern for our health and well-being.

Yesterday, Gov Cuomo announced a state-wide order for all residents to wear masks if they could not practice social distancing in public. I sincerely hope all New Yorkers get the message.

 

[JonathanXIV]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

I don’t understand your post.

 

[Wally East]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

And as of 2/15/20, 0.000000% had died.

 

[bluedevil]

Players could wear masks but touching a mask would be a foul while pulling a mask would be a technical foul....ok..lets lighten up...

 

[rvwsleep]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

Just for accuracy, NYC did include an additional 3,700 deaths, but in a separate category (as directed to by the CDC). It's NOT included in the confirmed death total but in a separate "probable covid 19" death category. It was done on a statistical basis when comparing deaths over a similar time period in previous years.
There were a lot of people who died without testing being done. Some of those were put into the "probable covid 19" category to improve the accuracy of the overall death rate.

 

[willtalk]

Many prisons, particularly overcrowded ones, do not have the ability to isolate prisoners. Most prisons have two or more prisoners to a cell. Meals, showers and any possibility of exercise often occur in communal areas.

The isolation I was referring to was from those from the outside. They are already isolated as a group. Now they should all be tested to see if they have the virus. Once they are tested and cleared there is no reason for them to get the virus unless it is brought in from the outside.

What I was responding to was using scarce inoculations on prisoners not testing. One poster stated that the prison population should be top priority for inoculations. Once the prison population is deemed virus free there is no reason to inoculate them because they, more than any other demographic group can be isolated. But for the staff that they have contact with inoculations would be essential. Of course, they would have to end all visitations, but that is pretty much what the rest of society is also subject too.

 

[oldude]

The isolation I was referring to was from those from the outside. They are already isolated as a group. Now they should all be tested to see if they have the virus. Once they are tested and cleared there is no reason for them to get the virus unless it is brought in from the outside.

What I was responding to was using scarce inoculations on prisoners not testing. One poster stated that the prison population should be top priority for inoculations. Once the prison population is deemed virus free there is no reason to inoculate them because they, more than any other demographic group can be isolated. But for the staff that they have contact with inoculations would be essential. Of course, they would have to end all visitations, but that is pretty much what the rest of society is also subject too.

Thanks for the clarification. I agree with isolating prisons from outside visitors, the same as was done with nursing homes.

 

[NewCorn]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

Well said. the models were off because people took the threat seriously and did their social distancing. If we had treated this like the usual yearly flu, we would probably have 5 to 10 times more deaths. This virus is a huge danger. We had better not lose sight of that fact.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Just for accuracy, NYC did include an additional 3,700 deaths, but in a separate category (as directed to by the CDC). It's NOT included in the confirmed death total but in a separate "probable covid 19" death category. It was done on a statistical basis when comparing deaths over a similar time period in previous years.
There were a lot of people who died without testing being done. Some of those were put into the "probable covid 19" category to improve the accuracy of the overall death rate.

True. And also for the record, the reason for the comparison of the last month to a "typical non-COVID 19" month was to illustrate, in addition to COVID-19 attributed deaths, deaths from other causes also increased due to the strain on the health care system. If we want to use numbers, let's at least use them in a manner that illuminates and clarifies, as opposed to pulling COVID-19 deaths out of context and minimizing their impact.

 

[NewCorn]

The economy is lives for most Americans.

My money or my life? You can have the money.

 

[NewCorn]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

32,000 people are dead, so far.

 

[Dokey]

N

The economy is lives for most Americans.

No.

 

[npignatjr]

32,000 people are dead, so far.

Now 0.009%

 

[npignatjr]

And as of 2/15/20, 0.000000% had died.

True, as a percentage miniscule. Do the same for cancer, heart disease, abortion, the seasonal flu. drug overdoses.

 

[diggerfoot]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

 

[npignatjr]

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders were using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

As soon as I find the photo it was from a NY newspaper will link it in. So all had on gloves and were cleaning their hands before they touched anything during the whole subway experience? The answer is no, my point is they were mostly being smart, which is good, must be smart.

 

[npignatjr]

N

No.

No? Having no money, no job, no house.

 

[oldude]

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

You have a lot to unpack in your post. Let me just respond to one point. The state of NY has tested a higher percentage of residents than any other state in the country. The latest fatality rate is 6.3% according to Johns Hopkins tracking website, among the highest in the nation. If as you indicate, the more tests that are done, the lower the fatality rate, why is N.Y. so much higher?

As for social distancing working, all you have to do is go to the supermarket or walk in the park to see people, many with masks on, take a wide berth around you to understand that just about everyone gets the message. No college kids are going to beaches in FL & CA anymore. Highways are empty during rush hour. I watched a video taken in Times Square a few days ago during midday and the streets were incredibly empty. I lived in NYC for 8 years when I was younger, and Times Square was always busy, even at midnight in wintertime.

 

[oldude]

because facts matter, fudging numbers skews the curve.

I agree that facts matter. As I and others have pointed out, the Federal Government has recently requested data from all states in deaths “presumed to be” from coronavirus as a separate statistic. NY and other states are providing those numbers separately. You can misinterpret the NY numbers as you choose, but it doesn’t change the facts.

 

[meyers7]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

That's the 2nd time I've seen that number. Where are you guys getting that??? Not even close to being accurate. USA sitting at 330 million people. We've had about 34,000 die. That's .0103%. And it's only going to go up.

 

[diggerfoot]

You have a lot to unpack in your post. Let me just respond to one point. The state of NY has tested a higher percentage of residents than any other state in the country. The latest fatality rate is 6.3% according to Johns Hopkins tracking website, among the highest in the nation. If as you indicate, the more tests that are done, the lower the fatality rate, why is N.Y. so much higher?

As for social distancing working, all you have to do is go to the supermarket or walk in the park to see people, many with masks on, take a wide berth around you to understand that just about everyone gets the message. No college kids are going to beaches in FL & CA anymore. Highways are empty during rush hour. I watched a video taken in Times Square a few days ago during midday and the streets were incredibly empty. I lived in NYC for 8 years when I was younger, and Times Square was always busy, even at midnight in wintertime.

Things affecting fatality rates:
Percent of population tested.
Age of population affected.
Health of immune systems of the population (urban states like NY will have > fatality rates).
Overwhelmed health care facilities (where people that otherwise could be saved die).

The latter offers an answer to a question I will turn around on you. Certainly lack of social distancing will lead to more infections, which will lead to more fatalities. Yet if you factor out overwhelmed health care facilities from all the fatalities from all the infections (including overwhelmed workers whose immune systems become compromised), particularly in urban areas, what is the mechanism of action by which less social distancing means a greater fatality rate? Greater fatalities? Yes. Greater rate? By what biological explanation?

My opinion is the fatality rate is less but the infection rate greater than what has been estimated. Originally I saw R factors of 1.8 for COVID-19, but that was before the miniscule size of the droplets were identified. I bet the R factor is more in line with measles than the flu, but the fatality rate is less than 2%.

 

[reno tony]

I thought this had something to do with Alex Trebek.

 

[JonathanXIV]

because facts matter, fudging numbers skews the curve.

You are missing the point. Completely. First, COVID-19 impacts our entire health system, including individuals who are deprived of vital care because of an overwhelmed health care system. Second, why do you think it is both valid and appropriate to compare one month of COVID-19 deaths with annual totals for heart disease, cancer, etc.? Health problems that we are currently designed to process and handle, unlike the pandemic. Finally, what makes you think that “opening up the economy” won’t have a negative impact on our ability to halt the spread of the virus. Bluntly, addressing the virus and its impact on the economy is a lot more interrelated than you suggest.

Yes, facts matter. So does the interpretation of those facts.

 

[UcMiami]

What is your evidence that Americans responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing? Not saying that is not necessarily true, but you later actually provide anecdotal evidence to the contrary, and certainly there is anecdotal evidence for defiant countercultures in our calls ignoring those calls, such as the Florida and California beaches. Since the testing is not great in this country it could be there are more people infected than anyone realizes, but are asymptomatic. If fatality rates are in reality less than 2%, but that does not show up because so many people are not tested, that would also result in the projections overestimating.

When you compare countries the ones with the lowest fatality rates are the ones with the most aggressive testing. Even in their cases it's more likely to overestimate a rate due to people slipping through the cracks than underestimating a fatality rate. It is certain that the more infected the more fatalities and social distancing reduces infections. Yet fatality rates and projections are all guesswork with too many variable that differ within and between countries. I'm hoping our fatalities remain less than projected; I'm not sure we can conclude yet that will never happen.

When you deal with small percentages like 2%, the missed deaths vs. missed detection of cases are very different numbers - miss five deaths and that needs to be offset by missing 250 cases.

When looking at cases and deaths from various countries because the age curve of lethality is clearly weighted toward senior citizens there will be some variation of percentage based on a country's age distribution - Italy is an older population so it's fatality rate will naturally be higher for example. The warning sign to me regarding testing is if a country is testing deeply enough to catch most of the cases then generally the death rate should match the 2-3% rate we see in the best cases. If the rate is significantly higher (and the health system hasn't crashed) then the testing is not wide enough to catch most of the cases.

In the US the state by state numbers are a case in point - the best case state scenarios are 10% or less of tests are positive and deaths are at or below 2 percent of positive tests. The worst state scenarios are 50% or more of tests are positive, and deaths are at 5+ percent of positive tests.

 

[Cedar]

My opinion is the fatality rate is less but the infection rate greater than what has been estimated. Originally I saw R factors of 1.8 for COVID-19, but that was before the miniscule size of the droplets were identified. I bet the R factor is more in line with measles than the flu, but the fatality rate is less than 2%.

Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory estimated that the R0 value for COVID-19 is “likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6.”

Measles has an R0 that is "often cited to be 12-18," and the flu has an R0 of about 1.3, according to the New York Times.

According to Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University professor of medicine, the coronavirus death rate may be “orders of magnitude” lower than the initial estimates.