2020-2021 Season in Jeopardy

[JonathanXIV]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

In an average month NYC has 5000 deaths from all causes. In the last month NYC had over 18,000 deaths. Frankly, your use of statistics obscures what is happening as opposed to illuminating. I disagree with your premise.

 

[VaConnFan11]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

We don't know what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have had it and showed very minor or no symptoms at all. Early on and it still may be the case, we were (are) only testing people that show symptoms. I expect we won't know the mortality rate until late this year or early next.

 

[Wally East]

I don’t mean for this to seem cold, but on average around 35,000 people die annually in car accidents, about 30% of those involving alcohol. CDC estimates for influenza in the 2018-2019 flu season were 35+ million were stricken, 16+ million needing medical attention and 34+ thousand deaths. As a society, and very, very generally speaking, we accept those in the sense no one thinks we should stop or restrict driving, stop selling alcohol or close the country down during flu season. Now, it appears some measures probably needed to be taken to prevent overwhelming hospitals and health care facilities but early models were so off as to make one wonder how those “smart experts” could have been so god awful wrong. I own my own business, almost all of it with the US DOD, and have the luxury of doing much of it remote if necessary, so virtually all of the business is still operational; but we all know many who are not and much of it could have continued operating by instituting some doable, common sense, adjusting of worker distance and work processes.

How contagious are fatal car accidents? And, actually, we do a LOT to restrict driving and to restrict driving while intoxicated. We do a LOT to fight seasonal influenza including encouraging everyone to get vaccinated every year.

This is not like the seasonal flu. It's a lot more lethal. We are doing what we have to do to prevent additional deaths. Opening things up too soon (without the proper measures including mass testing) has the potential to make what we've done so far close to meaningless.

 

[oldude]

We don't know what the mortality rate is, because we don't know how many people have had it and showed very minor or no symptoms at all. Early on and it still may be the case, we were (are) only testing people that show symptoms. I expect we won't know the mortality rate until late this year or early next.

Point taken, which absolutely calls for a massive national testing program to include both diagnostic as well as antibody tests to reassure Americans that it’s safe to go back to work. As a number of people have indicated, you can open businesses, but if Americans are afraid to ride mass transit, eat at restaurants or attend sporting events, any effort to resurrect economic activity will come up short.

 

[npignatjr]

University and colleges are in the same position as all businesses currently shut down. They cannot open until it is safe to do so. Don't forget; the "second spike" of the 1918 pandemic was worse ( in terms of total infections and deaths ) than the original outbreak. As a result; the schools should not open until there is a readily available effective treatment to limit the course of this virus, once a person is infected, and 2. a vaccine is nationally available. Opening our society simply using the metric of a " low infection rate number" is not going to be enough. The virus can spread just as easily with a .01% infection rate as with a 15% infection rate. It just takes a bit longer.. But not that much longer, because we are dealing with a geometric level of growth. The good news is; Rutgers Univ. has just received approval for a saliva based test....which will be faster, simpler and require fewer people to handle each specimen. That means; universal testing will speed up. There are signs that certain therapeutic treatments are showing efficacy....injecting some form of "plasma' derived from "recovered" patients...a technique used in other epidemics/pandemics. If this proves effective, newly infected people will get relief and likely not develop dire consequences. There are indictions of a vaccine being available by next spring, and "in use" on an emergency basis for medical workers as early as September. But the immediate issue is what to do this Fall for colleges and Universities? In my view, it is likely safer to delay the openings...and I don't think holding classes at home is worth the full cost of admission. And, of course, without admission payments, how do the Universities stay financially strong? Obviously, they have to reach into endowments and slow down on expansion. But this is what we all have to do as well, as incomes are cut or eliminated, stock values decline; interest rates and dividends cease....etc. We will have to survive by eating into savings. So will they. What a mess. The longer we endure, the worse things become economically, but the more hopeful they become in terms of health breakthroughs. In the end, we need that most. And if 12 months is our window...that seems bearable.

12 months, mortgages not paid, loans not paid, poverty kills, stress kills. What happens to the millions that work in education alone.

 

[npignatjr]

Liberty’s decision was tied to a political allegiance that puts the economy above lives.

The economy is lives for most Americans.

 

[npignatjr]

Point taken, which absolutely calls for a massive national testing program to include both diagnostic as well as antibody tests to reassure Americans that it’s safe to go back to work. As a number of people have indicated, you can open businesses, but if Americans are afraid to ride mass transit, eat at restaurants or attend sporting events, any effort to resurrect economic activity will come up short.

They are still riding subways in NYC.

 

[huskyd]

I had originally copied this in another thread before reading this one.
_______________________
We forget that WCBB is a very small part of any "college" -even @ UCONN. For WCBB to return college must first return. I haven't seen any credible plans that college will return to anything close to normal 4 months from now. Which college is going to be the first to say yes we accept the risk of getting all our kids back on campus? Even if a college does accept that risk what do you do with a student who test positive? Do you send them home? If you are a parent knowing that kid test negative are you going to ever trust that all the other kids on the campus are negative. I think you will see distance learning as the norm this fall. Courses that cannot be conducted via distance learning will be deferred. This would allowed for most facilities on campus including the gym to remain closed. Each college can then access the situation say in November determine if return to campus for 2nd semester is possible. ( similar to the plan in the article posted above) Closed gyms would obviously mean no basketballs and a basketball season starting in December would push March madness to May.
The UCONN WBB '20-'21 roster was also supposed to include 3 international players. Will this country be open to accepting foreign students back by May or June?

Excellent analysis along with Old Dude's. Touches all the bases. No one knows what the future holds, but it appears that the season will be lost. Athletes will get extensions to make up for time missed. No guarantees that everyone will hang around for an extra year. Que sera, etc.

 

[oldude]

They are still riding subways in NYC.

Yes. Most NYC riders wear masks and practice distancing as well as they can on subways that are fortunately well below capacity. In addition, the MTA disinfects subway cars every day before they are put back in service.

 

[npignatjr]

How contagious are fatal car accidents? And, actually, we do a LOT to restrict driving and to restrict driving while intoxicated. We do a LOT to fight seasonal influenza including encouraging everyone to get vaccinated every year.

This is not like the seasonal flu. It's a lot more lethal. We are doing what we have to do to prevent additional deaths. Opening things up too soon (without the proper measures including mass testing) has the potential to make what we've done so far close to meaningless.

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

 

[npignatjr]

Yes. Most NYC riders wear masks and practice distancing as well as they can on subways that are fortunately well below capacity. In addition, the MTA disinfects subway cars every day before they are put back in service.

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

 

[oldude]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

Why would you subtract deaths, many of which occurred in nursing homes with people showing all the symptoms of COVID-19, just because people weren’t tested. In addition, there has been a surge of individuals who are dying at home from heart failure and other health complications, while showing all the symptoms of coronavirus, that also have not been tested.

It should be noted that the CDC is asking all states to now report COVID-19 statistics on a presumptive basis whether or not people ever received a test.

 

[oldude]

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

It certainly works better than doing nothing at all. This doesn’t have to be a Faustian choice between restarting the economy and accepting an increased level of mortality. While it’s going to be an enormous challenge, we can carefully bring back the economy while protecting public health at the same time.

 

[UcMiami]

The first two countries to 'surge' were China and South Korea and they both (eventually) responded aggressively with wide and deep testing and enforced isolation. The death rate in China is about 4% of those who contracted the disease, the death rate in South Korea stands at about 2%. I think those are probably the best representations of the parameters for the virulence of this virus in an environment where most cases of the disease are being discovered by testing. The disparity in death rate can be attributed to an overwhelmed health service in Hubai province.

Currently in the US the death rate stands at around 5% of those testing positive. With wide regional variations from about 2%-7+%. In five weeks we have 31,000 deaths and 104,000 hospitalizations and for the last 3 weeks most of the population has been self isolating. The flu season is about 26 weeks with minimal isolation and average US deaths of about 35,000. You can do all sorts of math with those numbers but this isn't comparable to normal flu season.

NB - most of Europe has a death rate of 10% +/- The UK which toyed with letting the virus rip to develop herd immunity stands at 104,000 known cases and almost 14,000 deaths or close to 14%. Sweden continues on that path with 12,500 cases and 1333 deaths 11%. Germany tested aggressively and isolated and they have 136,000 cases and 3850 deaths - under 3%. Norway and Finland isolated quickly and stand at 2.5% or less.

 

[rvwsleep]

Have you seen the posted pictures, maybe 50 50 masks, no distancing. So disinfecting at night then used touched by hundreds maybe thousands every day, You think that works?

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders were using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

 

[oldude]

I ride the NYC subway 4 days a week. Even on the most heavily used trains (#6 train), I would estimate that between 80 to 90% of the riders are using masks, this past week.
Btw, even at 8am on a weekday morning, the #6 train has no more than 12 people in a car when it stops at the 77 St. stop.

Thanks for the on the scene update. I wish upstate NY, where I live, had 80-90% mask usage. My wife and I have been wearing masks to the supermarket or Home Depot for a couple of weeks now, but unfortunately we have been in the minority up here. I’m a little annoyed by that fact. I figure we’re taking steps not to infect others and would greatly appreciate if others demonstrated equal concern for our health and well-being.

Yesterday, Gov Cuomo announced a state-wide order for all residents to wear masks if they could not practice social distancing in public. I sincerely hope all New Yorkers get the message.

 

[JonathanXIV]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

I don’t understand your post.

 

[Wally East]

as of this morning 04/16 0.0086% of the U.S. Population has died from the virus

And as of 2/15/20, 0.000000% had died.

 

[bluedevil]

Players could wear masks but touching a mask would be a foul while pulling a mask would be a technical foul....ok..lets lighten up...

 

[rvwsleep]

From what causes, the whole of NY state is reporting 14000 deaths with covid in their system, you can subtract the 3000 that they reported as covid deaths without testing

Just for accuracy, NYC did include an additional 3,700 deaths, but in a separate category (as directed to by the CDC). It's NOT included in the confirmed death total but in a separate "probable covid 19" death category. It was done on a statistical basis when comparing deaths over a similar time period in previous years.
There were a lot of people who died without testing being done. Some of those were put into the "probable covid 19" category to improve the accuracy of the overall death rate.

 

[willtalk]

Many prisons, particularly overcrowded ones, do not have the ability to isolate prisoners. Most prisons have two or more prisoners to a cell. Meals, showers and any possibility of exercise often occur in communal areas.

The isolation I was referring to was from those from the outside. They are already isolated as a group. Now they should all be tested to see if they have the virus. Once they are tested and cleared there is no reason for them to get the virus unless it is brought in from the outside.

What I was responding to was using scarce inoculations on prisoners not testing. One poster stated that the prison population should be top priority for inoculations. Once the prison population is deemed virus free there is no reason to inoculate them because they, more than any other demographic group can be isolated. But for the staff that they have contact with inoculations would be essential. Of course, they would have to end all visitations, but that is pretty much what the rest of society is also subject too.

 

[oldude]

The isolation I was referring to was from those from the outside. They are already isolated as a group. Now they should all be tested to see if they have the virus. Once they are tested and cleared there is no reason for them to get the virus unless it is brought in from the outside.

What I was responding to was using scarce inoculations on prisoners not testing. One poster stated that the prison population should be top priority for inoculations. Once the prison population is deemed virus free there is no reason to inoculate them because they, more than any other demographic group can be isolated. But for the staff that they have contact with inoculations would be essential. Of course, they would have to end all visitations, but that is pretty much what the rest of society is also subject too.

Thanks for the clarification. I agree with isolating prisons from outside visitors, the same as was done with nursing homes.

 

[NewCorn]

Yes, all the statistical models overestimated the total number of cases and deaths from COVID-19. But they, along with many of the medical experts will point out that the projections weren’t necessarily wrong. Most models used a mortality rate of 2%, which is actually lower than the 3-4% rate we are currently seeing in this country. What the models missed was just how effective Americans have been implementing social distancing practices. Had the American people not responded overwhelmingly to calls for social distancing, many more people would have been infected with many more resulting deaths.

Well said. the models were off because people took the threat seriously and did their social distancing. If we had treated this like the usual yearly flu, we would probably have 5 to 10 times more deaths. This virus is a huge danger. We had better not lose sight of that fact.

 

[JonathanXIV]

Just for accuracy, NYC did include an additional 3,700 deaths, but in a separate category (as directed to by the CDC). It's NOT included in the confirmed death total but in a separate "probable covid 19" death category. It was done on a statistical basis when comparing deaths over a similar time period in previous years.
There were a lot of people who died without testing being done. Some of those were put into the "probable covid 19" category to improve the accuracy of the overall death rate.

True. And also for the record, the reason for the comparison of the last month to a "typical non-COVID 19" month was to illustrate, in addition to COVID-19 attributed deaths, deaths from other causes also increased due to the strain on the health care system. If we want to use numbers, let's at least use them in a manner that illuminates and clarifies, as opposed to pulling COVID-19 deaths out of context and minimizing their impact.

 

[NewCorn]

The economy is lives for most Americans.

My money or my life? You can have the money.