Agreed. When UK is refreshing most of the roster with freshmen, they will struggle, especially early. This year, they got better and better and won the SEC tournament in a year when the SEC was very strong. That's what they need to hope happens. I am not sure what some are saying about Cal. They guy is a fantastic basketball coach, not just a recruiter. I know we don't like him, but I'm not about to make the mistake of thinking he isn't a great coach.
Duke next year will have a team like UK often does. Insane amounts of young talent. Let's see what K does. My guess is that it will be similar. Struggles early, then pull together. Capable of beating anyone, or losing to lesser teams.
Experience and age matter a lot in college basketball. Often the best teams will have experience at key positions and a few young transcendent talents at other positions. But there is no one way to build a roster.