Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Vowelguy]

Not sure what Stanford and Cal bring to the B1G at this point. I think the B1G is now done until the ACC implodes. B1G eventually gets to 24 with :

-Notre Dame
-UNC
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Florida State
-Miami

Why does everyone keep saying Miami and GaTech?
Miami has been mediocre at best since they joined the ACC. GT worse.
Tho at least GA is a recruiting hotbed.

Miami is way overvalued on the Internets.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Dave had no money to make a hire and we were stuck in the hell hole of the AAC. He was choosing between a cast of complete fools who were interested in the job. NOBODY of worth wanted the job.

To act like he had his pick of the litter and chose RE for the hell of it is batshit insane.

There were multiple coaches from the MAC that could have taken the same amount and did 10x the job Edsall did. Edsall 2.0 was one of the worst hires ever. In many ways, it is even worse than PP and Red Pants since the third time is usually the charm.

 

[businesslawyer]

His choice was bring back Diaco, or bring on Edsall. Those were his two choices at the time (the boosters would only pay the Diaco buyout and new coach if it was Edsall). While Edsall was a complete disaster, I still don't know if it was better to take on HCRE2.0 or continue with the complete incompetence of Diaco.

While Edsall II was unbearable to live through, I don't think there is much question that he left the cupboard far more stocked for his successor than what was left for him. Which means, crazy as it sounds, that if the choice was Edsall and Diaco we made the right one. (And that's in hindsight. At the time it looked like an easy choice.)

 

[Rufus]

I am not sure Cal will be asked to join B10. Stanford might be along with FSU or Notre Dame. I feel bad for Cal because like UConn
it is a university that could offer a lot to conference.

I think the B1G absolutely wanted/wants Cal and Stanford, but the networks don't seem to want them, so they probably won't be added.

 

[uconndennis]

Question for the class-

If we had hired Jim Mora 3 years ago, would we have a seat at the table?

Nope... On field performance doesn't mean anything.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Fox is cutting expenses and they’ve just added or are about to add a total of eight schools - they have plenty of inventory. And there’s no leverage - ESPN has no room.

If Fox is cutting expenses they're surely going about it in one hell of a way.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Discussion from the Clemson board on dissolving the ACC. They confirmed it will take 8 schools.

Realistic scenario to dissolve the ACC… no joke

Join the conversation on "Realistic scenario to dissolve the ACC… no joke". Read more on the premiere Clemson board

www.tigernet.com

 

[JeepCSC]

Why does everyone keep saying Miami and GaTech?
Miami has been mediocre at best since they joined the ACC. GT worse.
Tho at least GA is a recruiting hotbed.

Miami is way overvalued on the Internets.

Both are AAU schools along with being in new markets with lots of eyeballs and talent.

 

[BigTenFan]

All this realignment will cause all sorts of chaos with current and recruited student athletes. If you are a football player at Washington State or Cal or Stanford you might be thinking about transferring to school that is on Fox or NBC every week- not streaming. Coaches will not be able to build programs because of the uncertainty of the situation.

 

[uconnyankee]

Are we in mourning now, or just waiting for more news on Big 12 moves?

Seems focus has shifted to ACC

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If Fox is cutting expenses they're surely going about it in one hell of a way.

Maybe the media companies tightened their belts because they knew they'd make these acquisitions?

 

[Vowelguy]

Both are AAU schools along with being in new markets with lots of eyeballs and talent.

Oh my lord, if you’re still citing the AAU garbage ….

Miami gets terrible local support unless they’re #1.
If the BiG gets FSU, Miami adds nearly nothing.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Maybe the media companies tightened their belts because they knew they'd make these acquisitions?

I mean, nobody is forcing ESPN/FOX to pay a nearly combined $100M a year for Arizona, Arizona State and Utah football and basketball games.

This is all pretty much happening in real time, they could just say no.

 

[Fishy]

If Fox is cutting expenses they're surely going about it in one hell of a way.

Fox was paying about half of a $3B/12yr television contract to the Pac12.

They’ve fixed that.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Are we in mourning now, or just waiting for more news on Big 12 moves?

Seems focus has shifted to ACC

ACC is the next fat pig waiting to be slaughtered. It is just a matter of time so might as well be now. FSU's recent bitching public comments are just the bat signal to get this all started.

 

[Muddler]

I see the reverse. The B12 is going to get a haircut in 2031. Teams will start clamoring to get into the ACC.

Agree. For all the ACC problems, it still has a lot of strong brands. WVU has to be in play as Big 12 travel for them will be tough.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Fox was paying about half of a $3B/12yr television contract to the Pac12.

They’ve fixed that.

Which was set to expire anyways? Then they went big into the 12 team Big 12, which now looks to be the 16 team Big 12, in addition to the 4 new B1G adds.

I think the Big East deal will be pretty bad, but that's more because half the teams stink, not that Fox or ESPN is exercising any form of fiscal restraint.

 

[ctchamps]

I count 5 at best, but more likely only 4.

Which do you think have that value?

Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson.

That's it.

If I had to predict, it would be ND and Virginia to the B1G, with UNC and Florida St to the SEC.

My only question really is Clemson. It depends on whether the SEC wants to duplicate a small state.

Either way, the leftovers of the ACC would be a lot more compelling than the B12 when it comes to markets. They'd have Atlanta, South Carolina, Raleigh Durham, parts of Virginia, Pittsburgh, etc., these are heavily populated areas.

If only twenty is the end point then NC State and Virginia Tech end up in the opposite conference that North Carolina and Virginia end up (SEC or Big). Virginia to the BIG and UNC to the SEC would be my guess.

Question mark on SEC getting FSU because of Florida and Clemson because of South Carolina. But where do they end up if the BIG is at twenty? If UNC and Virginia go to the SEC then the BIG takes FSU and Clemson? I think they take Cal and Stanford first.

Question mark if BIG even wants ND at this point and would just prefer them to wither up and die. I’m sure the media would convince them otherwise so slot out one of the mid Atlantic schools for ND unless it’s NC.

Ironically Duke could be in trouble. Their value lies in going in tandem with UNC and UNC wants them to wither and die. Duke unlike ND is hated by everyone even here in NC.
If conferences go to 24 which I believe they will then it becomes easier to predict the demise of the ACC because the Big12, SEC and BIG will certainly take the best of the rest in the ACC and PAC and G5. Unless they prefer any B12 schools. Kansas and maybe U of A would be possible.

Given your scenario what other teams besides UNC and FSU does the SEC want to get to twenty or twenty four?

 

[uconnyankee]

ACC is the next fat pig waiting to be slaughtered. It is just a matter of time so might as well be now. FSU's recent bitching public comments are just the bat signal to get this all started.

I’m still balancing work and this…. Not successfully BTW.

Have we seen any movement by Big 12 on ASU or Utah?

Where’s our beloved GoKU? Is he still rock’n n chaulk’n the huskies?

He seemed very calm and confident this morning, like he knew the game plan.

 

[gsmooth]

Yes. Randy Edsall 2.0 was one of the worst decisions ever by UCONN admin and AD Dave.

Pasqualoni was bad and he took the good program down from an upward rise to a 20 degree downward slant. Diaco steepened the decline of UConn football to to 50 degree slant while wearing roller skates. With Edsall the decline went to 90 degrees like the edge of cliff perpendicular with the ground and the program fell flat to the ground hard and got deep sixed.

After Diaco got fired, UConn had a very crucial hiring decision in 2016 and it had to be the correct one and instead it couldn't have been worse IMO. I felt so deflated when I saw his announcement of being hired. When he followed his first season at 3-10 with a 1-11 season and stated "it was part of the process of rebuilding, fans need to be patient" I wanted Benedict to put his foot up Edsall's arse and kick him out right then and there.

 

[NH Husky]

It's irrelevant whether schools in a conference bring the per school payment or not -- just relevant for potential new additions.

ASU is a huge school, in a large and growing metropolis, who over time has had plenty of periods where they are above average on a P5 level in both hoops and pigskin. Am I hard pressed to make a case that, if we can be worth $30M to the XII, so could they? No, I am not hard pressed.

People tend to make unsubstantiated comments. Ie UCF brings $30m to the Big XII.

To your point regarding ASU. I’m a metric driven individual.

The media revenue numbers we are seeing could not be driven by alumni only. The eyes of the general population surrounding the institution need to be engaged as well. Level of engagement is fluid and influenced by many factors. Other entertainment options (BC was good when the Pats were bad and vice versa - some of that could apply to us as well), and winning or competing percentage (In the 90’s think how many people were jumping on our hoops bandwagon). And ease of access to product (think population density - how easy is it for me to see my team). Plus a flagship may carry more weight in winning over a states general population than a private - exceptions could be Notre Dame, Navy, Army, BYU. Some of these institutional management can control (coaching hires, marketing, etc). Others are out of their control. And academic performance which is not in question with the exception of AAU.

Look at the B1G most recent adds starting with Penn St (excepting Nebraska, can’t figure out that one).

Metric 1. Population per P5 institution.
Rutgers (NJ) - 9.3m per school
Maryland - 6.2m
California - 9.8m
Pennsylvania - 6.5m
Washington - 3.9m (x 2 w/o WSU)
Oregon - 2.1m (x 2 w/o OSU)
• Ohio - 5.9m (x 2 pre UC to XII)
• Michigan - 5.0m
• Illinois - 6.4m
• Texas - 4.9m

Metric 2. Density
New Jersey - 1,263 pp/sqmi
California - 251 (much more if isolate SC)
Maryland - 632
Penn - 290
• Ohio 286, Illinois 230, Mich 173

So NYC. It has no P5 schools. So look at NYC-Nassau/Suffolk-Westchester-Rockland plus CT plus NJ plus MA. Population 33m second only to CA. Area 22k sq miles ( Texas 261k, CA 156k, OH 41k). 3 P5 (if we’re in)
Metric 1 - 11m pp/school
Metric 2 - 1,488 pp/sqmi
Both number one in each category.

Before dismissing think all the other criteria that’s been floated around these last 10 years. Must border existing state, history, culture, unsubstantiated $.

 

[BPT2Storrs]

So ultimately we will likely end up back in a conference with what will be the ACC rejects?

 

[Jimbo]

Any chance the Big 12 could put its newfound leverage to some actual use, playing hardball with the would-be Pac refugees and offering them invitations at a reduced share? The conference has those schools over a barrel right now and can probably do whatever it wants, including simply adding Arizona and stopping at 14.

So just how badly does each school want in? (We may not like it, but UConn might be willing to accept a cheaper price, if push came to shove, than Utah or ASU would be willing to stomach.)

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I mean, nobody is forcing ESPN/FOX to pay a nearly combined $100M a year for Arizona, Arizona State and Utah football and basketball games.

This is all pretty much happening in real time, they could just say no.

Of course they could say no (and I'm sure some of these schools will be at partial revenue share), but certainly live sports still wins the day with the media companies.

 

[UConnJim]

So you think that these seven or eight schools are dissolve a conference to void a network deal with ESPN and then they are going to just move to another conference and receive more money….from ESPN.

I can explain why this is not going to happen, but it should be pretty apparent to you.

Isn't that what just happened to the Pac 12? USC and UCLA moved for a large increase. It appears Oregon and Washington will get much more than the potential Pac 12 deal was paying. And, the schools that go to the Big 12 will get more money as well. Think about this, the Pac 12 schools in their new conferences will get more in aggregate than the networks were willing to pay for the whole conference. Unfortunately, there will be 2 to 4 Pac 12 casualties.