Xavier Scouting Report | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Xavier Scouting Report

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Finishing last season with a 16-18 record and sub-.500 play in the Big East was a massive failure by Xavier’s typically high standards and this forced Sean Miller to essentially clean out the program after the departure of ten scholarship players from last year’s team.

However, like last year, the injury bug has bit Xavier, especially amongst their forwards corps. Prior to the start of the year, Long Beach State fifth-year big Lassina Traore, who averaged a double-double, was forced to miss this year with a knee injury. Florida State transfer Cam’Ron Fletcher, who started his career at Kentucky, has played sparingly as he gears up following last year’s ACL injury. The biggest blow came today with star fifth-year forward Zach Freemantle on an indefinite absence following a lower-body injury. Sophomore guard Trey Green is also taking an indefinite leave to address a health-related matter and Boise State guard Roddie Anderson III is redshirting, leaving the Musketeers with seven healthy scholarship players, eight if you count Fletcher.

Basically, throw out any preseason preview you have for Xavier, as for the foreseeable future, will be a lot smaller than expected just a few months prior.

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Entering the year, there was good roster balance, but now, Xavier is a guard-driven team led by Indiana State transfer Ryan Conwell and fifth-year returnee Dayvion McKnight. Xavier’s four key guards – Conwell, McKnight, Furman transfer Marcus Foster and Toledo transfer Dante Maddox – are all versatile offensive guards who can score from anywhere in the halfcourt, distribute and create off-the-bounce.

An all-around guard who finished last season with the 19th best A/TO ratio in the nation, McKnight is also Xavier’s best bucket-getter. Despite being a bit undersized, McKnight also possesses a strong base and can draw contact well. Only about a third of McKnight’s field goal attempts are three-pointers, so his scoring and playmaking tend to be inside the arc. Solid defender too. Similar to McKnight, Conwell is a sound defender, but has flipped scoring splits – about two-thirds of Conwell’s field goal attempts are from 3, so he is one of the best perimeter scorers in the Big East.

Furman grad transfer Marcus Foster starts at the 3 and will likely get even more minutes as the third guard with Dailyn Swain needing to play up in the lineup. One of the best rebounding guards in the conference, Foster is also a physical defender who is off to his most efficient season on the perimeter. A star at Furman, Foster’s usage rate has been much lower at Xavier so far, but I can see Foster stepping up to help replace Freemantle’s scoring.

Dante Maddox is off to a poor start after a very strong season at Toledo. He’s not known for his defense, but he’s a microwave scorer who finished in the top-six in the MAC in offensive efficiency rating in each of the last two seasons. Like Foster, he’s a guy waiting to break out.

In the frontcourt, John Hugley IV is now Xavier’s only healthy true center. He’s got good feet and a soft touch under the rim, but at 6’11 270, Hugley hasn’t gotten the conditioning to be able to play more than 22 minutes in any game this season in Miller’s up-tempo offense. Shooting just 44% from inside the arc, he’s off to the worst start of his career. Despite his size, Hugley also isn’t afraid to let it rip from three.

With Freemantle gone, fifth-year forward Jerome Hunter will get all the minutes he can at the 5. An energetic and scrappy lunch-pail forward Hunter is an elite offensive rebounder and while he puts in an effort on defense, his athleticism has slowed down a half of a gear and his aggressiveness can sometimes cause him to have tunnel vision.

Sophomore forward Dailyn Swain started out the season as a combo forward, but injuries will move him to more of a full-time power forward role with a shot of him getting small ball 5 minutes too. An excellent defender who can switch 1-through-5, Swain, like Hunter, possesses an excellent motor and Swain is Xavier’s best turnover generator. On offense, Swain’s only true weakness is a lack of a perimeter shot, but he can make plays, set up teammates, slash, create off-the-bounce and play above the rim.

In one way, Xavier’s injury issues play towards Sean Miller’s tendencies: on offense, he likes to play off tempo and share the ball freely (Xavier has ranked in the top-20 in A/FGM ratio in each of his last four seasons of coaching). Miller coached defenses are also strong on the perimeter, but Freemantle’s loss will make it tough for Xavier to rebound as well on the defensive end. However, Freemantle is an all-around star who possesses no holes in his game so his loss is huge. Stylistically speaking, the team’s spacing will be greatly hindered with his loss. Swain, Hugley and Hunter have combined to shoot 4-for-16 from three, so unless Miller decides to go small with the strong rebounding Foster at the 4, almost all of Xavier’s rotations will feature two non-shooters in the frontcourt, which should undoubtedly affect the interior flow that Xavier’s talented guards bring to the table.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Some go the opposite way. Dan Marino had a lot of injuries in college, one of the things that hurt his draft position. He then was an iron man in the NFL. You never know.

There are few Dan Marinos or Joel Embiid, players with injury issues early that managed to stay healthy after. Very few humans are physically capable of sustaining the physical wear and tear that comes with being an NBA player, and the ones that get hurt a lot early on are typically not among those that can handle it.
 
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It'll be tough, but hopefully they can manage to stay afloat and not take a huge drop.
 

willie99

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X is devastated by injuries, again

Beginning to remind me of our women's teams, they're just not as deep

Feel bad for their program and their fans, don't wish that on anyone
 
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Ryan Conwell seems like the guy that could carve us up. Good enough off the dribble to get to the hoop, and a sharpshooter from three. But he does have some issues with consistency, I’d expect Diarra gets this matchup with a goal of frustrating him early

I thought McKnight would be a bit better this year but with Conwell taking so many shots, not surprising that he hasn’t broken out. But if Diarra is spending his time on Conwell, need Solo to step up here because we know McKnight can pop off if he needs to

I feel really bad for Xavier fans about Freemantle again. Xavier was probably banking on him taking advantage of a matchup with Samson. Jerome Hunter is kind of like McKnight in the sense that we know he can pop off if he needs to, even if that isn’t his role right now

X has a bunch of guys that are sleeper picks to take over games, but as we’ve learned recently so do we. Play the we’ve played post-Maui and we win. Let’s go huskies!
 
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Curious what our center rotation will be with Samson out and Xavier being forced to go small for a bunch of the game. Do we see Singare spelling Tarris or will Hurley similarly go small with the Stewart/Karaban lineup at the 4/5?
 

nelsonmuntz

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This would have been a really good team with Freemantle and Traore. The guards are good enough, and I think Miller does a great job with guards, but there is no coming back from losing two All Big East caliber players to injury, especially today where schools don’t like spending money on their bench so a lot of players that would develop there in the past are on mid-major rosters getting playing time and angling for big money their sophomore or junior years.
 
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Mahaney has a chance to have a good game.. Xavier doesn't have rim protection and their not really a defensive minded team with guards that clamp down and pressure on defense.
Now Sean Miller is a smart guy and might pick up a lot in film review and tell McNight and their guards to pressure Mahaney.
 
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Since the last time we played Xavier, they've moved up 13 spots to 47th in KenPom, mostly due to a 16 spot improvement of the team's defense.

The biggest change to the lineup is Zach Freemantle is now healthy and after playing much of his career at the 4, he is the team's starting center with Swain/Hunter sharing the 4 spot, which allows four shooters on the floor at all times.

This makes Miller's rotation even shorter, with just seven consistent regulars and John Hugley playing less and less as the season goes on (3 or less minutes in 3 of the last 5). In other words, we'll see more switchable and athletic Xavier rotations this time around than last as Hugley played about half the game last tilt.

Overall, the main focus will be stopping the inside/outside duo of Conwell/Freemantle as both can score from anywhere and are also solid distributors. McKnight has been struggling from three, but that will correct soon and he's still an excellent downhill guard. I love Swain, so versatile and athletic, honestly his only weakness is gaining more confidence from three, but that'll develop someday. All of the top-seven can score in bunches.

Coin flip of a game.

These stats below are Big East only*

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There is nothing to like about this one:

  1. Took us to OT with Liam, in Hartford
  2. Are hot
  3. Need the win badly for any tourney considerations
  4. Swing revenge game in their place
  5. Miller is a great coach and will target the soft spots every team is now targeting
  6. We still don't have Liam
A win here would warrant a massive wipe of sweat from the brow, take us into DePaul at home on what is hopefully Liam's first game back. Will be pleasantly surprised if they win and very curious as to the line. If going by the KP spread, would suggest Xavier by 1.
 

August_West

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There is nothing to like about this one:

  1. Took us to OT with Liam, in Hartford
  2. Are hot
  3. Need the win badly for any tourney considerations
  4. Swing revenge game in their place
  5. Miller is a great coach and will target the soft spots every team is now targeting
  6. We still don't have Liam
A win here would warrant a massive wipe of sweat from the brow, take us into DePaul at home on what is hopefully Liam's first game back. Will be pleasantly surprised if they win and very curious as to the line. If going by the KP spread, would suggest Xavier by 1.

All of that is 100% true and why I think we are in trouble, but oddly it is comforting because this team constantly surprises me. Watch us win by 8 . (We will build a lead up to 24 early in 2nd half, and then limp to the finish) ;);)
 
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There is nothing to like about this one:

  1. Took us to OT with Liam, in Hartford
  2. Are hot
  3. Need the win badly for any tourney considerations
  4. Swing revenge game in their place
  5. Miller is a great coach and will target the soft spots every team is now targeting
  6. We still don't have Liam
A win here would warrant a massive wipe of sweat from the brow, take us into DePaul at home on what is hopefully Liam's first game back. Will be pleasantly surprised if they win and very curious as to the line. If going by the KP spread, would suggest Xavier by 1.
With Freemantle back and available-now playing the 5- Will be an interesting matchup for Johnson/Reed
 
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There is nothing to like about this one:

  1. Took us to OT with Liam, in Hartford
  2. Are hot
  3. Need the win badly for any tourney considerations
  4. Swing revenge game in their place
  5. Miller is a great coach and will target the soft spots every team is now targeting
  6. We still don't have Liam
A win here would warrant a massive wipe of sweat from the brow, take us into DePaul at home on what is hopefully Liam's first game back. Will be pleasantly surprised if they win and very curious as to the line. If going by the KP spread, would suggest Xavier by 1.
With Freemantle at the 5, Reed Jr can overpower him in the post on offense, but he will have a hell of a time guarding Freemantle on defense as he will be defending around the arc. Samson, who was also out in that Xavier game, will be better on the defensive end against Freemantle.

Stewart and AK can have an easier time defending against Swain as he really isn't a good perimeter shooter. They can play a few steps off of him and also help out others on dribble penetration. Ryan Conwell is the guy I am most concerned with. Maybe Hurley has Diarra defend Conwell a few times, but not full time.

I think this will be a shootout type game as neither team plays good defense, but they both run sophisticated offenses.
 
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Xavier beating up StJ up 10 at the half. A Xavier win here would be nice to, keep them fat and happy for a bit. And even out the standings.
 
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Xavier beating up StJ up 10 at the half. A Xavier win here would be nice to, keep them fat and happy for a bit. And even out the standings.

Played like they did against us down the stretch and gave it away. Miller must be frustrated with this team real good at times but they lose their minds easily.

They will be a load Saturday night no matter.
 

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