Wins needed to make NCAA at large

[ucjoet]

Sort of disappointed with the 1 - 2 start. especially losing twice to Purdue. But even with that said, I am very hopeful of a very good year. To me the magic number for us to get an NCAA at large bid is 40 wins. Obviously that is not a guarantee, but it would be hard to keep us out with that many wins. Also I think we need to be in the top 3 or at worst top 4 in the BE regular season standings to have a good shot. I realize winning the tourney gets us in. I broke down the 56 game regular season schedule below and I assumed we would play 4 BE tourney games. That would give us a total of 60 games. If we finished 40 - 20, I think we are in. Let me know your thoughts.

16 - 8 BE regular season
2 - 2 BE tourney
11 - 2 New England games
11 - 8 Other games

The above scenario gets us to 40 - 20. Which should be good enough for a tourney bid.

 

[Yonick]

I believe we have gone 1-2 the past 3 seasons vs the B1G to open the season. What we need to do is be competetive during the southern swing over the next 3 weeks. Then, we need to be take care of business vs the New England teams. Last year, as I recall, we lost to Sacred Heart, URI, and Brown. Wins vs those 3 probably would've goten us in last year.
Once the season is in full swing we host Louisville & St. John's. Those are the 2 best BE teams. 4-2 vs those 2 would be fantastic. We probably are better than the rest of the BE teams, with ND being the possible exception.
Good to see Mazilli go 4 for 4 yesterday.

 

[ucjoet]

I believe we have gone 1-2 the past 3 seasons vs the B1G to open the season. What we need to do is be competetive during the southern swing over the next 3 weeks. Then, we need to be take care of business vs the New England teams. Last year, as I recall, we lost to Sacred Heart, URI, and Brown. Wins vs those 3 probably would've goten us in last year.
Once the season is in full swing we host Louisville & St. John's. Those are the 2 best BE teams. 4-2 vs those 2 would be fantastic. We probably are better than the rest of the BE teams, with ND being the possible exception.
Good to see Mazilli go 4 for 4 yesterday.

Good analysis. I have us going 11 - 2 in NE games, only because in baseball things just happen. But you are correct we need to beat the NE teams.

 

[UConnHusky2012]

I wouldnt be worried about early season losses with us because we seem to do this every season. What does worry me is something like 40-20 would probably put us on the wrong side of the bubble bc I really don't like the opponents we are playing non-conf in terms of strength of schedule and helping our rpi. The problem is in the BE there are too many teams which don't help our rpi when we win and hurt us when we lose. I would like to see us playing teams better than Sam Houston & the 3 teams next year to at least give us the potential for quality early season wins for our postseason resume

 

[ucjoet]

I wouldnt be worried about early season losses with us because we seem to do this every season. What does worry me is something like 40-20 would probably put us on the wrong side of the bubble bc I really don't like the opponents we are playing non-conf in terms of strength of schedule and helping our rpi. The problem is in the BE there are too many teams which don't help our rpi when we win and hurt us when we lose. I would like to see us playing teams better than Sam Houston & the 3 teams next year to at least give us the potential for quality early season wins for our postseason resume

Don't disagree with the strength of schedule comment, but I still think 40 wins and a top 3 regular season finish gets us in. Obviously it depends on what other teams do. I also think with our recent success, gives us a small advantage when choosing an at large team.

 

[UConnHusky2012]

Don't disagree with the strength of schedule comment, but I still think 40 wins and a top 3 regular season finish gets us in. Obviously it depends on what other teams do. I also think with our recent success, gives us a small advantage when choosing an at large team.

Here's where im thinking the issue is. For instance we just played Purdue twice and Indiana once which is a decent start to SOS and both teams should be top 80 rpi this season but from there where do we go? The following teams in the next few weeks are worse than that and don't help us very much. On the other hand a team that is in a similar level conference as ours that I know very well opened 2-1 against UGA, plays UF tmrw, has a weekend series with Indiana and also has games with GT and Clemson. Those are all opportunities to make statements in their resume not counting conference games and we just don't have those in my opinion and its going to possibly hurt us if our fairly young team stumbles anywhere in conference play. I just don't think that getting to a certain amount of wins means anything in the BE if you don't beat anyone. Also I think we finish 4th behind Lville, ND and StJohns and then with our usually history in the BE tourney you can see where I'm coming from

 

[ucjoet]

The 40 wins I am hoping for will not guarantee us an at large bid. But just like in hoop where 20 wins is the magic number everyone looks for, I think 40 wins is the number you look for in baseball. With 40 you are definitely in the conversation. Obviously what other teams accomplish, our strength of schedule and where we finish in conference play will also come into play. But if our goal is 40 wins, I think we have a great chance of getting a bid.

 

[ucjoet]

Below are my projections ( very unscientific) as to what we need to accomplish in each category to achieve the 40 win goal. I am going to update each current standing as the season moves on to compare it to my original goal for each category. Obviously this may mean nothing and getting to 40 wins does not guarantee a post season bid, but it will be interesting to see how we fair in each category.

current goal
0 - 0 .000 % 16 - 8 .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 .000% 2 - 2 .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 .000% 11 - 2 .846 - New England games
3 - 3 .500 11 - 8 .579 - Other games

 

[ucjoet]

current goal
0 - 0 / .000 % , 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% , 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% , 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
3 - 3 / .500 , 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games


Hope this format works better

 

[ucjoet]

current record season goal
0 - 0 / .000 % ................. 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% ................... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% .................. 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
3 - 3 / .500...................... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games


Another Try

 

[ucjoet]

current record...................... season goal
0 - 0 / .000 % ................. 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% ................... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% .................. 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
3 - 3 / .500...................... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games

Hopefully this looks ok. Boy am I horrible with standard formatting procedures.

 

[UConnHusky2012]

Awesome & thanks for putting in the time and effort!

 

[ucjoet]

current record...................... season goal
0 - 0 / .000 % ................. 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% ................... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% .................. 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
4 - 3 / .571...................... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games

Nice win today over a good Ohio state team. Our RPI is 97 after this game. Being greedy but want a sweep this weekend.

 

[ucjoet]

current record...................... season goal
0 - 0 / .000 % ................. 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% ................... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% .................. 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
5 - 3 / .625...................... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games


Mazzilli 3 hits today and some solid pitching. RPI moves up to 92. Need to beat Stetson tomorrow for first sweep weekend of the year. Their RPI is in the low 200's so even a win would probably hurt our RPI. But a loos would obviously be more devastating to RPI. Hope Ward can pick up where he left off last week. A win tomorrow would make it 5 in a row.

 

[UConnHusky2012]

ucjoet, where are you finding the RPI's at? I love following that type of stuff but the only website I found that has 2013 rankings has Presbyterian and Savannah St in the top 8 and UNC and GT below UConn in the 120's and I know that there is no way any of those are possible.

 

[ucjoet]

ucjoet, where are you finding the RPI's at? I love following that type of stuff but the only website I found that has 2013 rankings has Presbyterian and Savannah St in the top 8 and UNC and GT below UConn in the 120's and I know that there is no way any of those are possible.

I have been following the site below ( Warren Nolan .com) . They also have a NPI ( Nolan power Index) and different statistics on team performance. They also have Presbyterian highly ranked, and until yesterday Pitt was # 1 in the nation with a 5 - 2 record. I am guessing the RPI may need a few more weeks of games played to be more accurate . Let me know the site you follow. Hope this helps.

http://www.warrennolan.com/

 

[ucjoet]

After a little more research, I found the following relationship to wins, RPI and getting an at large bid. In the last 2 years every team that has won 40 games and had an RPI of 60 or lower has made the tourney. Again probably not a guarantee, but that combo is something we can keep an eye on. As of this morning our RPI is 90.

 

[dbmill]

current record...................... season goal
0 - 0 / .000 % ................. 16 - 8 / .667 % - BE regular season
0 - 0 / .000% ................... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
0 - 0 / .000% .................. 11 - 2 / .846 - New England games
5 - 3 / .625...................... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games


Mazzilli 3 hits today and some solid pitching. RPI moves up to 92. Need to beat Stetson tomorrow for first sweep weekend of the year. Their RPI is in the low 200's so even a win would probably hurt our RPI. But a loos would obviously be more devastating to RPI. Hope Ward can pick up where he left off last week. A win tomorrow would make it 5 in a row.

Another good win yesterday against Central Michigan. Another quality start from Carson Cross, and the Huskies continue to get good work from the bullpen. The offense also is picking up.

On the down side, the last few games have seen several Huskies a game being thrown out on the bases, most commonly by being picked off. I've noticed that most of these successful pick offs are being credited as caught stealing, as the UConn runners often end up breaking for the next base. It's amazing how many outs (and potential runs) they just give away during a game.

 

[mets1090]

Another good win yesterday against Central Michigan. Another quality start from Carson Cross, and the Huskies continue to get good work from the bullpen. The offense also is picking up.

On the down side, the last few games have seen several Huskies a game being thrown out on the bases, most commonly by being picked off. I've noticed that most of these successful pick offs are being credited as caught stealing, as the UConn runners often end up breaking for the next base. It's amazing how many outs (and potential runs) they just give away during a game.

Penders teams have always been aggressive on the base paths. If you're new to UConn baseball, get used to them giving away outs on the bases. They also steal runs on the bases. I would be interested to see how many 1st inning runs they get this year from Ferriter getting on via a 1B or BB, stealing second, advancing on an out and scoring on another out.

 

[ucjoet]

Penders teams have always been aggressive on the base paths. If you're new to UConn baseball, get used to them giving away outs on the bases. They also steal runs on the bases. I would be interested to see how many 1st inning runs they get this year from Ferriter getting on via a 1B or BB, stealing second, advancing on an out and scoring on another out.

Agree with the aggressiveness is going to hurt us some times but overall I think we manufacture many extra runs then we lose. Yesterday Ferriter starts game with a walk, steals second and scores on a sac fly.
Was looking over the RPI's of some teams and it is way to early to take them very seriously. As an example, Brown is 1 - 2 and ranked #2 in the country while Louisville is 8 -1 and ranked #120. We probably should wait another 3 -4 weeks to start worrying about our RPI.

 

[UConnHusky2012]

Thank you. Yeah thats what I figured with the RPIs. They are very fluid right now and I will definitely get around to looking at that site in my free time. I just thought it was funny when I saw Savannah St highly ranked as I have like a 2nd or 3rd cousin on the team and know they don't really play anyone. Then my brothers team was in the 140's or something even tho they have some quality wins but I think they were low bc they have played most games at home and road wins count for more to help teams from the North that have to travel to start the season.

Also I love how Penders is aggressive on the bases as I think in college baseball forcing the issue is a net positive over the course of a season especially when a school like UConn doesnt have a lineup full of 6'4" players that can rake 1-9 like the big programs. Put pressure on the pitching staff and defense for the other teams and good things will happen.

 

[ucjoet]

UConn up 2 - 0 top of first vs Stetson

 

[ucjoet]

Mazzilli 2 run single UConn up 4 - 0 bottom of 2nd.

 

[ucjoet]

Bottom of 6th 4 - 0 UConn.

 

[ucjoet]

Top of 8th 6 - 3 UConn