Men Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid

[johnhuskies95]

1) I’m saying they are 85% probable to get in most likely as a 3. 2 is possible but I’d be pleasantly surprised and it would be from the street cred earned last year. Don’t think that’s too out of line (actually a high degree of certainty they get in) and if you want to know my reasoning I posted such in the thread ucjoet runs, 2) the poll where they’ve been #9 means absolutely nothing (it’s actually trash) as do the fake bracket projections (I fully understand why people get off on these but they don’t matter) , 3) half inning away, 4 innings away, a game away they didn’t win the title that’s the bottom line sorry and 4)You do realize in 2022 entering tourney they were 46-13, won the BE reg season, won BE tourney had a similar RPI (24/25) and were seeded as a 3? I could be wrong but laying out my reasoning. Your turn now.

Unfortunately I agree. This year's team outside of the polls looks very similar on paper to last year's team that was a 3. Baseball isn't as stringent as basketball on seeding integrity in the sense that they let geography dictate things more even for non-national seeds (although they've gone away from that moreso in recent years), but I have a bad feeling we're going to end up as a 3, although I'd take a 3 in a weaker regional than a 2 in a top 8 seed's regional.

 

[greenday61892]

1) I’m saying they are 85% probable to get in most likely as a 3. 2 is possible but I’d be pleasantly surprised and it would be from the street cred earned last year. Don’t think that’s too out of line (actually a high degree of certainty they get in) and if you want to know my reasoning I posted such in the thread ucjoet runs, 2) the poll where they’ve been #9 means absolutely nothing (it’s actually trash) as do the fake bracket projections (I fully understand why people get off on these but they don’t matter) , 3) half inning away, 4 innings away, a game away they didn’t win the title that’s the bottom line sorry and 4)You do realize in 2022 entering tourney they were 46-13, won the BE reg season, won BE tourney had a similar RPI (24/25) and were seeded as a 3? I could be wrong but laying out my reasoning. Your turn now.

I have no issue whatsoever with your reasoning for the seeding. It's the fact that you think we have a not-insignificant chance of being left out entirely that I think is doomeresque

 

[freescooter]

I have no issue whatsoever with your reasoning for the seeding. It's the fact that you think we have a not-insignificant chance of being left out entirely that I think is doomeresque

Problem with being ina mid-major league 1-bid league. You lose the autobid and almost by definition you are a bubble team no matter how good you are.

 

[MarkyMark]

Problem with being ina mid-major league 1-bid league. You lose the autobid and almost by definition you are a bubble team no matter how good you are.

Agree. If people want to quibble with my 15% out prob that’s fine but I do think it’s some % and not a zero. I’m much firmer on the 3 vs. 2. I would be extremely surprised with a 2. Ucjoet has his formula and I know he has adjusted the win total for the BE being an essentially one bid league. They checked all his boxes and he has them in. Again, we’ll see on Monday when it all counts. Im just uncomfortable needing an at-large in a historic one bid league.

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 27 • D1Baseball

The latest projections are out, and while Clemson continues to gain ground in the top eight, there's some shifting when it comes to bubble teams.

d1baseball.com

Where’s Waldo today?

BOSTON

1 Boston College (15)

4 Fairfield*

2 Connecticut*

3 Washington

D1 had BC out as a host site:

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 28 • D1Baseball

Heading into championship Sunday at conference tournaments, our latest projections have a new host site plus two new teams in the field.

d1baseball.com

CLEMSON

1 Clemson* (4)

4 Maine*

2 Connecticut

3 Texas Tech

LEXINGTON

1 Kentucky (13)

4 Wright State*

2 Boston College

3 Xavier*

 

[dbmill]

With Xavier having taken the Big East Tourney, they are now currently in the Top 50 RPI at 43. So while UConn did not succeed in their mission to win that championship, all of a sudden they have an increase in Top 50 RPI teams that they played. UConn and Xavier have played a total of 6 games together this season, and they split them at 3 wins each. So now UConn has a record of 4 wins, 5 losses against Top 50 teams, which looks a bit better than playing just 3 games agains Top 50 RPI opponents. We'll see what happens tomorrow during the Tournament selection show.

 

[Shortking98]

Agree. If people want to quibble with my 15% out prob that’s fine but I do think it’s some % and not a zero. I’m much firmer on the 3 vs. 2. I would be extremely surprised with a 2. Ucjoet has his formula and I know he has adjusted the win total for the BE being an essentially one bid league. They checked all his boxes and he has them in. Again, we’ll see on Monday when it all counts. Im just uncomfortable needing an at-large in a historic one bid league.

The odds you posted seem pretty reasonable to me. The other assumption I see a lot of people making is that BC will be a host team. They might but I am not convinced that they are as sure of a host candidate as they are being pitched. It would not surprise me at all to see BC as a 2, uconn and northeastern both as 3s.

 

[MarkyMark]

The odds you posted seem pretty reasonable to me. The other assumption I see a lot of people making is that BC will be a host team. They might but I am not convinced that they are as sure of a host candidate as they are being pitched. It would not surprise me at all to see BC as a 2, uconn and northeastern both as 3s.

The 16 hosts will be announced tonight. If BC hosts that’s a good sign for UConn. Agree with your views on BC hosting, however.

 

[Kemba Time]

Let’s be clear: The odds of UConn being left out of the tourney are 0%. None. Nada. Zilch.

There’s some validity to worrying about the 2/3 line or ending up somewhere undesirable, but it is a 100% lock that this team will be playing baseball somewhere next weekend.

 

[MarkyMark]

Let’s be clear: The odds of UConn not being selected are 0%. None. Nada. Zilch.

There’s some validity to worrying about the 2/3 line or ending up somewhere undesirable, but it is a 100% lock that this team will be playing

Found this posted in feb. Sorta kinda along my line of thinking but that’s what makes the world go round. Everyone has a view. I do think there is some % prob attached to being omitted. dbmill comment on top 50 wins is valid and helps the case.

Rdkid​

• Feb 5, 2023
• I think based upon last year, 45 wins is a conservative floor to get into tourney as an at large. If we lost in the BE tourney last year, we were out. Not sure our SOS will be much better this year

 

[Kemba Time]

Found this posted in feb. Sorta kinda along my line of thinking but that’s what makes the world go round. Everyone has a view. I do think there is some % prob attached to being omitted. dbmill comment on top 50 wins is valid and helps the case.

Rdkid​

• Feb 5, 2023
• I think based upon last year, 45 wins is a conservative floor to get into tourney as an at large. If we lost in the BE tourney last year, we were out. Not sure our SOS will be much better this year

On Selection Monday last year UConn’s SOS was 181. Today it is 83. Last year’s non-conf SOS was right around 150, this year’s is 51. It’s much better, and why this team is a lock to get in.

 

[dbmill]

On Selection Monday last year UConn’s SOS was 181. Today it is 83. Last year’s non-conf SOS was right around 150, this year’s is 51. It’s much better, and why this team is a lock to get in.

Last year UConn's non conference opponents generally had a total collapse in their traditional year to year RPI. It wasn't so bad this season.

 

[ATLDYKA]

Being in the Big East we are going to be facing this every year. Almost a win the tourney title or sweat it out on Monday. We have to schedule a 3 game series against an ACC and 3 game series against an SEC team or P5 team every year. Need to boost that OOC schedule. At minimum 6 games against P5 teams (Not Big 10) should be the goal. I do know Chris Jones mentioning last year that we had future games scheduled against an SEC team, thought it was going to be this year, but maybe that starts next year.

 

[MarkyMark]

On Selection Monday last year UConn’s SOS was 181. Today it is 83. Last year’s non-conf SOS was right around 150, this year’s is 51. It’s much better, and why this team is a lock to get in.

On Selection Monday last year UConn’s SOS was 181. Today it is 83. Last year’s non-conf SOS was right around 150, this year’s is 51. It’s much better, and why this team is a lock to get in.

Death and taxes are a lock. This ain’t a lock but they’re most likely in. And the numbers you quote, while improved, are still amongst the bottom in top 50 RPI. So I do feel exposed. Hopeful for Monday.

 

[huskymedic]

Last year UConn's non conference opponents generally had a total collapse in their traditional year to year RPI. It wasn't so bad this season.

Being in the Big East we are going to be facing this every year. Almost a win the tourney title or sweat it out on Monday. We have to schedule a 3 game series against an ACC and 3 game series against an SEC team or P5 team every year. Need to boost that OOC schedule. At minimum 6 games against P5 teams (Not Big 10) should be the goal. I do know Chris Jones mentioning last year that we had future games scheduled against an SEC team, thought it was going to be this year, but maybe that starts next year.

Interesting discussion on D1Baseball on RPI, midweek games and “intent to schedule”

-> Fair enough, but Hughes didn’t stop there. He targeted the RPI as a metric and suggested dropping the bottom four or five RPI games on someone’s schedule to keep RPIs from getting unfairly dropped in areas of the country where access to good RPI midweek opponents is rather limited.

“If you’re tied to certain teams in certain regions, I’ve always said let’s take your worst four or five RPI games and let’s drop it from the resume for the calculations,” Hughes said. “Let’s not have those games count toward your resume. There are some lower Division I teams that don’t have the funds that are counting on programs like ours to help fund them by some of the guarantees that we provide.

“Now, we’re in a position where we won’t or can’t play those teams,” he added. “They’ll hurt our RPI, and in turns, the RPI will end up hurting those programs, too.”<-

-> “In my discussions with some committee members over the past few weeks, this idea of intent to schedule has consistently come up in conversation. The idea behind this is how well did you intend to schedule from a strength standpoint. <-

 

[Rdkid]

Found this posted in feb. Sorta kinda along my line of thinking but that’s what makes the world go round. Everyone has a view. I do think there is some % prob attached to being omitted. dbmill comment on top 50 wins is valid and helps the case.

Rdkid​

• Feb 5, 2023
• I think based upon last year, 45 wins is a conservative floor to get into tourney as an at large. If we lost in the BE tourney last year, we were out. Not sure our SOS will be much better this year

That was my thinking in Feb. The raw win number held true (we unexpectedly got into cancellation/RPI manipulation this year), but our SOS held up. My best guess is that we will end up a weak 2 and go to an SEC/ACC lion’s den. Don’t discount kicking ass as a #3 last year to earn some respect w

 

[huskymedic]

The 16 hosts will be announced tonight. If BC hosts that’s a good sign for UConn. Agree with your views on BC hosting, however.

 

[ucjoet]

I believe this is the Charts 14th year. I would have to go back and check, but I don’t believe it has been totally Green many times.

Thanks to everyone that post game updates and other material associated with the team. Makes the season very interesting.

I’m hoping for a 2 seed in a regional with a mid level host (6 -11 seed). But as others have stated it would not shock me if we end up as a 3 seed. We will know tomorrow. Happy Memorial Day to all.

Go Huskies!!!

12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
7 - 1 / .875. ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
15. - 5/ .750 ...... 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750. New England
3 - 2/ .600 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 43 - 15/ .741% ..... 41 - 16 / .719
(2) 24 ... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[DGB]

1) I’m saying they are 85% probable to get in most likely as a 3. 2 is possible but I’d be pleasantly surprised and it would be from the street cred earned last year. Don’t think that’s too out of line (actually a high degree of certainty they get in) and if you want to know my reasoning I posted such in the thread ucjoet runs, 2) the poll where they’ve been #9 means absolutely nothing (it’s actually trash) as do the fake bracket projections (I fully understand why people get off on these but they don’t matter) , 3) half inning away, 4 innings away, a game away they didn’t win the title that’s the bottom line sorry and 4)You do realize in 2022 entering tourney they were 46-13, won the BE reg season, won BE tourney had a similar RPI (24/25) and were seeded as a 3? I could be wrong but laying out my reasoning. Your turn now.

There are some ok points here, but UConn absolutely did not have the same RPI at this time last year. UConn didn't get to the RPI mid 20s until AFTER playing two RPI top 15 teams in Maryland and Wake in the Maryland regional, and three games against the number two RPI team at Stanford. Last year UConn was RPI 51 following the G-town sweep to end the regular season, and RPI 43 following the Big East tournament win. I think UConn should play a tougher pre-season schedule with teams from the SEC and ACC, Big 12, or PAC...but this years RPI metrics are FAR better than 2022. They should be a two seed.

 

[greenday61892]

D1 had BC out as a host site:

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 28 • D1Baseball

Heading into championship Sunday at conference tournaments, our latest projections have a new host site plus two new teams in the field.

d1baseball.com

CLEMSON

1 Clemson* (4)

4 Maine*

2 Connecticut

3 Texas Tech

LEXINGTON

1 Kentucky (13)

4 Wright State*

2 Boston College

3 Xavier*

Ooooh remember what happened last time we were put in Clemson?

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Viet Vet]

I'll be very (pleasantly) surprised if we are in the same regional at BC with a #2 seed. IMO, we haven't earned a high #2 seed, and BC is on the bubble for a #1.

 

[Alum86]

Huskies are headed to SC. Bank on it.

 

[uconnbaseball]

A BC regional with a non Northeastern team as the 3 seed would be perfect. USC, CSF, SHSU, etc are very beatable. Northeastern is really good.

 

[huskymedic]

A BC regional with a non Northeastern team as the 3 seed would be perfect. USC, CSF, SHSU, etc are very beatable. Northeastern is really good.

Agreed - I’d rather be shipped out than face Northeastern the first game of the Regional.

 

[dbmill]

A BC regional with a non Northeastern team as the 3 seed would be perfect. USC, CSF, SHSU, etc are very beatable. Northeastern is really good.

Agreed - I’d rather be shipped out than face Northeastern the first game of the Regional.

It seems to me that the selection committee on occasion organizes the 16 regional sites with teams that are nearby to the site. Doesn't always happen that way, but we'll see how it goes this time around.

 

[huskymedic]

No “Boston/Brighton” Regional…. Away we go.

 

[ucjoet]

There are currently 21 teams that have an RPI of 50 or less, and also have 40 or more wins. In the past if a team met these two criteria, they were almost exclusively chosen for NCAA Tournament. This is regardless of conference.
I will give you an update tomorrow once the selection brackets are complete.

 

[huskymedic]

The 16 hosts, in alphabetical order:

Alabama (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
Arkansas (Fayetteville, Ark.)
Auburn (Auburn, Ala.)
Clemson (Clemson, S.C.)
Coastal Carolina (Conway, S.C.)
Florida (Gainesville, Fla.)
Indiana State (Terre Haute, Ind.)
Kentucky (Lexington, Ky.)
LSU (Baton Rouge, La.)
Miami (Coral Gables, Fla.)
Oklahoma State (Stillwater, Okla.)
South Carolina (Columbia, S.C.)
Stanford (Stanford, Calif.)
Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tenn.)
Virginia (Charlottesville, Va.)
Wake Forest (Winston-Salem, N.C.)

 

[huskymedic]