Men Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid

[huskymedic]

 

[CL82]

Tough bracket

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 22 • D1Baseball

The latest Field of 64 projections are out, and while the top eight seeds are becoming much clearer, the hosting situation is still very much in flux.

d1baseball.com

BRIGHTON

1 Boston College (15)

4 Fairfield*

2 Connecticut*

3 Southern California

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 22 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the latest Top 25 rankings and the postseason picture as a whole? You have questions and we have answers.

d1baseball.com

A few UConn mentions:

Bob Gagnon: What does ECU need to do to host? Win their tournament? If yes, do they need any help even if they win their tournament. If ECU turns out to be a #2 seed, will they be rewarded with a favorable regional and where would they go?
Aaron Fitt: I think the Pirates suffer from the same deficiency as the other top RPI teams in the mid-major leagues, like Indiana State, DBU and UConn — they haven’t done great against top 50 opponents. Given the glut of hosting candidates with considerably more high-end wins, I don’t really envision ECU hosting with a 4-6 top 50 record, even if they win the conference tourney. But it also wouldn’t be a shocker if they did snag a host. Definitely still in the running. If they’re on the road, I would bet on a drivable ACC site like Charlottesville, Winston-Salem or Durham (probably not W-S because that would be a strong 2-seed for the No. 1 overall national seed to have in its regional).

Will: Can you briefly explain if there is a different analysis done for your top 25 rankings compared to your projected regional hosts? Specifically, Uconn-Miami-Oregon St are 9,10, and 11 in your rankings and it appears only Miami is a host team as we enter conference tournament play. Miami is 4-9 on the road and a 19 RPI, Oregon State (30 RPI) is 0-3 vs the top 25 RPI and while Uconn (25 RPI) playing in the Big East is only 1-1 vs the top 25 they have 18 road victories. If you don’t think Uconn or Oregon St are host teams why are they ranked in the top 11?
Aaron Fitt: These are two different exercises. The field of 64 projections represent our attempt to forecast how the committee will construct the field next weekend, based on the criteria that we know the committee uses. We don’t lean on the RPI metrics when constructing the Top 25, which is more of a barometer of how teams are playing. If you get into the Top 25 and keep on winning all your weekends, you’re going to keep rising, and generally won’t drop even if you lack those marquee wins. The Top 25 is therefore weighted toward series wins, which we believe is a huge marker of a good team. To break into the Top 25 as a mid-major who lacks those high-end wins, you have to have a talented roster that we believe is capable of making a run in the postseason, and you need some good wins even if they aren’t necessarily top 25/50 RPI wins. But once you’re in, you typically don’t drop out unless you lose series.

Andrew Miller: Is Campbell still in the hosting picture and if it came down to ECU or Campbell who would you have in as a host.
Aaron Fitt: Yes, Campbell is certainly still in the mix, and clearly ahead of ECU based on the 3-0 head-to-head record. Campbell also has a better top 50 record (5-4) than these other mid-major host candidates we’ve been talking about, like Indiana State (2-9), DBU (2-7) and UConn (1-2). I’d feel better about the Camels if they hadn’t lost that final series, but you can make a case they should still be ahead of those other mid-major host candidates despite a lower RPI (No. 25) because of the top 50 record. And at least they still won the regular-season conference title, which is always key for one of these types of teams. If I’m betting, I would not bet on any of these teams hosting, but they’re all still in the mix.

Dustin: Is UConn in no matter what happens in the big East tournament? Any possible path to hosting or is the RPI just to low?
Kendall Rogers: UCONN is definitely in no matter what. And the Huskies have an RPI of 25, which means they’re within striking distance. Roll through the Big East tourney and they will have a shot. The biggest road block right now is just the sheer number of host contenders right now. It’s a laundry list.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[MarkyMark]

D1Baseball Weekly Chat: May 22 • D1Baseball

Have questions about the latest Top 25 rankings and the postseason picture as a whole? You have questions and we have answers.

d1baseball.com

A few UConn mentions:



Dustin: Is UConn in no matter what happens in the big East tournament? Any possible path to hosting or is the RPI just to low?
Kendall Rogers: UCONN is definitely in no matter what. And the Huskies have an RPI of 25, which means they’re within striking distance. Roll through the Big East tourney and they will have a shot. The biggest road block right now is just the sheer number of host contenders right now. It’s a laundry list.

Thanks for posting this Huskymedic. My view is the so-called "experts" are going to be more constructive on Uconn than the actual selection committee. I base that primarily upon last year's record, accomplishments, and seeding. That's why I don't pay much attention to these guys in addition to hosting discussions last month (I echo dbmill's comments on this matter). Can the committee view Uconn in a more favorable light this year? Yes, I believe that's possible based primarily on last year's tourney success (goodwill). However, I still think the so-called experts are, almost in every case, overseeding and over ranking Uconn compared to my expectations for the committee. Not trying to be a buzzkill but looking at it honestly. If Uconn does not win this tournament I still need to need the committee to show me the BE can be a 2-bid conference in the current environment.

 

[dbmill]

Thanks for posting this Huskymedic. My view is the so-called "experts" are going to be more constructive on Uconn than the actual selection committee. I base that primarily upon last year's record, accomplishments, and seeding. That's why I don't pay much attention to these guys in addition to hosting discussions last month (I echo dbmill's comments on this matter). Can the committee view Uconn in a more favorable light this year? Yes, I believe that's possible based primarily on last year's tourney success (goodwill). However, I still think the so-called experts are, almost in every case, overseeding and over ranking Uconn compared to my expectations for the committee. Not trying to be a buzzkill but looking at it honestly. If Uconn does not win this tournament I still need to need the committee to show me the BE can be a 2-bid conference in the current environment.

It would seem the Big East can be a 2 bid conference this season only if UConn does not win the Big East Tournament. This sort of thing has happened with usual 1 bid conferences before. Inclined to think UConn has done enough during the regular season to make the NCAA Tourney even if they lose 2 straight games in the Big East Tourney, but I prefer not finding that out. Suspect at this point Xavier will only make the NCAA Tournament only if they get the Big East automatic bid.

I don't view the Big East as a terrible baseball conference, but as pretty much an average conference. Remember, there are 30 total baseball conferences in NCAA D1 Baseball. Average baseball conferences just don't match up to the general strengths of the P5 conferences and a few others. Almost any conference is going to look poorly when compared to the SEC or the ACC. I suspect it is possible the Big East in baseball may improve a little and possibly in the occasional year get at an at large bid to the NCAA (if UConn stays in the Big East), but certainly highly unlikely that they would ever be anywhere near the competitive level as the P5 conferences.

 

[ATLDYKA]

It would seem the Big East can be a 2 bid conference this season only if UConn does not win the Big East Tournament. This sort of thing has happened with usual 1 bid conferences before. Inclined to think UConn has done enough during the regular season to make the NCAA Tourney even if they lose 2 straight games in the Big East Tourney, but I prefer not finding that out. Suspect at this point Xavier will only make the NCAA Tournament only if they get the Big East automatic bid.

I don't view the Big East as a terrible baseball conference, but as pretty much an average conference. Remember, there are 30 total baseball conferences in NCAA D1 Baseball. Average baseball conferences just don't match up to the general strengths of the P5 conferences and a few others. Almost any conference is going to look poorly when compared to the SEC or the ACC. I suspect it is possible the Big East in baseball may improve a little and possibly in the occasional year get at an at large bid to the NCAA (if UConn stays in the Big East), but certainly highly unlikely that they would ever be anywhere near the competitive level as the P5 conferences.

Honestly, I think the BE gets screwed because it is such a small conference. You can't tell me that Xavier is not as good as these 4th & 5th place teams from the Big Ten but yet the Big Ten will get 4 or 5 teams in just because of the number of teams in that conference.

 

[ATLDYKA]

By the way, is everyone pulling for BC or against? That's a tough one, you don't want them possibly getting a host over us, but playing at BC as a host wouldn't be a bad backup plan to us not getting a host. Close proximity and we know we can beat them at their place.

 

[businesslawyer]

Honestly, I think the BE gets screwed because it is such a small conference. You can't tell me that Xavier is not as good as these 4th & 5th place teams from the Big Ten but yet the Big Ten will get 4 or 5 teams in just because of the number of teams in that conference.

Why can't I tell you that? What do you think I know that the RPI formula doesn't? Xavier was great once conference play started, but that's in the Big East and I think they did very poorly before conference play started.

 

[ATLDYKA]

Why can't I tell you that? What do you think I know that the RPI formula doesn't? Xavier was great once conference play started, but that's in the Big East and I think they did very poorly before conference play started.

I don't know, eye test tells me they are as good as Rutgers or Nebraska. They get more just on sheer size of league.

 

[dbmill]

Why can't I tell you that? What do you think I know that the RPI formula doesn't? Xavier was great once conference play started, but that's in the Big East and I think they did very poorly before conference play started.

According to the Warren Nolan RPI website, Xavier had 3 wins and 13 losses against teams currently in the top 50 RPI. Of course 3 of these games were against UConn. Most of these games were before the Big East schedule started, a few after.

 

[Shortking98]

I don't know, eye test tells me they are as good as Rutgers or Nebraska. They get more just on sheer size of league.

Neither of Rutgers or Nebraska are getting in as an at large so I'm not sure what this comparison accomplishes.

 

[ATLDYKA]

Neither of Rutgers or Nebraska are getting in as an at large so I'm not sure what this comparison accomplishes.

TBD, they are the 4 & 5 seed in the Big Ten, if they don't get in then I guess they are only getting 3 teams this year. That would make me feel better. By the way, BC just beat Va Tech, so that helps their cause.

 

[Shortking98]

TBD, they are the 4 & 5 seed in the Big Ten, if they don't get in then I guess they are only getting 3 teams this year. That would make me feel better.

Rutgers is RPI 61 and Nebraska is 104. I haven't seen them on anybody's radar for an at large bid and I think it's too late for both unless they go on a run and win the tournament. Most likely a 3 bid league this year

 

[MarkyMark]

By the way, is everyone pulling for BC or against? That's a tough one, you don't want them possibly getting a host over us, but playing at BC as a host wouldn't be a bad backup plan to us not getting a host. Close proximity and we know we can beat them at their place.

Re: BE vs. Big 10, etc.: For me most second-tier teams (For me defined as >30 RPI - Xavier, Michigan, NC State, etc) the margins are razor thin via eye test. So the primary way to separate is to look at the detailed RPI metrics. From the teams you mentioned Xavier and Nebraska aren't NCAA teams unless auto-bid. Rutgers I like more than most people (saw them in person so I'm biased) but SOS is a killer and thus they are auto-bid. Uconn's SOS hurts as it is amongst the worst in the top 40. Also Uconn the high # of Q4 wins (29) and low # of Q1 wins (5) are amongst the worst in RPI top 50. Hence my angst with Uconn when you lay the body of work out. In the committee room, you can really nitpick at Uconn. Have they really been tested versus a school such as Oregon or NC State? Also who they played OOC didn't help. OSU didn't make the B10 tourney, Cal barely squeaked in P10 tourney, SDSU stunk, etc. Columbia loss also hurt metric-wise. Bottom line: I don't think the BE is getting screwed at all. Feels like a one-bid conference to me. Thus I don't think Uconn is a true "lock" if they lose 2 in a row this week. I don't think that will happen but worst case scenario. I really looked at the data this morning and putting my bias aside Uconn doesn't stack up optimally. You have to hope intangibles come into play. Also how the auto bids play out matters and how many get sucked up by otherwise non-tourney teams. I'm probably paranoid but need to play well this week which is what they can control. Anything else you're chasing your tail.

 

[businesslawyer]

Good God, such drama. Can't we find the easy middle ground between "the Big East is being cheated" and "the Big East is so bad we're not a look for the tourney if we don't win the conference?" There is no bias in the RPI. No one computer formula is the only way to objectively compare teams, but it is what it is and it's not unreasonable or it wouldn't be so heavily relied upon. Which mean that no one in the Big East other than us has earned it's way into the tourney, and our winning percentage, combined with our record against combined Quad 1 and Quad 2, has already played us in.

I want to win the tournament because I want the players to win championships. But I'm not worried about getting into the NCAAs either.

 

[MarkyMark]

By the way, is everyone pulling for BC or against? That's a tough one, you don't want them possibly getting a host over us, but playing at BC as a host wouldn't be a bad backup plan to us not getting a host. Close proximity and we know we can beat them at their place.

Good God, such drama. Can't we find the easy middle ground between "the Big East is being cheated" and "the Big East is so bad we're not a look for the tourney if we don't win the conference?" There is no bias in the RPI. No one computer formula is the only way to objectively compare teams, but it is what it is and it's not unreasonable or it wouldn't be so heavily relied upon. Which mean that no one in the Big East other than us has earned it's way into the tourney, and our winning percentage, combined with our record against combined Quad 1 and Quad 2, has already played us in.

I want to win the tournament because I want the players to win championships. But I'm not worried about getting into the NCAAs either.

If you took away the teams' names on the RPI list and just had Team A, Team B, etc., and stacked them up not knowing who is who it's not a gimmie (under the losing 2 in a row this week scenario). If you think it's a lock you're biased (plus listening to so-called "experts) which is ok we all are. "Combined Q1 and Q2" is not a metric. Otherwise, they would combine it. The committee isn't (or shouldn't be). No drama at all. Last year won BE reg season/tourney RPI ~25 and got a 3 seed. Need to face the hard facts.

 

[HookC22]

Re: BE vs. Big 10, etc.: For me most second-tier teams (For me defined as >30 RPI - Xavier, Michigan, NC State, etc) the margins are razor thin via eye test. So the primary way to separate is to look at the detailed RPI metrics. From the teams you mentioned Xavier and Nebraska aren't NCAA teams unless auto-bid. Rutgers I like more than most people (saw them in person so I'm biased) but SOS is a killer and thus they are auto-bid. Uconn's SOS hurts as it is amongst the worst in the top 40. Also Uconn the high # of Q4 wins (29) and low # of Q1 wins (5) are amongst the worst in RPI top 50. Hence my angst with Uconn when you lay the body of work out. In the committee room, you can really nitpick at Uconn. Have they really been tested versus a school such as Oregon or NC State? Also who they played OOC didn't help. OSU didn't make the B10 tourney, Cal barely squeaked in P10 tourney, SDSU stunk, etc. Columbia loss also hurt metric-wise. Bottom line: I don't think the BE is getting screwed at all. Feels like a one-bid conference to me. Thus I don't think Uconn is a true "lock" if they lose 2 in a row this week. I don't think that will happen but worst case scenario. I really looked at the data this morning and putting my bias aside Uconn doesn't stack up optimally. You have to hope intangibles come into play. Also how the auto bids play out matters and how many get sucked up by otherwise non-tourney teams. I'm probably paranoid but need to play well this week which is what they can control. Anything else you're chasing your tail.

I hate to say it but I am starting to lean this way as well. Last year it was obvious how our OOC opponents fell off big time. I hadn't looked into it much this year but it seems like so many of our opponents trended downward late where they just feel below the Q2/Q3/Q4 cutoffs.

 

[MarkyMark]

I hate to say it but I am starting to lean this way as well. Last year it was obvious how our OOC opponents fell off big time. I hadn't looked into it much this year but it seems like so many of our opponents trended downward late where they just feel below the Q2/Q3/Q4 cutoffs.

Just to be clear I think they're going to play well this week. They may have caught their second wind, fought through a rough patch, and are now ready to move forward (SP pending of course). I'd be surprised if they didn't play well. Just trying to look at more concerning scenarios.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[HookC22]

Just to be clear I think they're going to play well this week. They may have caught their second wind, fought through a rough patch, and are now ready to move forward (SP pending of course). I'd be surprised if they didn't play well. Just trying to look at more concerning scenarios.

Yup totally understood. I was meaning moreso that we do have some flaws on our paper resume that could be nitpicked by the committee despite the high rankings.