Men - Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid | Page 10 | The Boneyard

Men Wins needed for a 2023 NCAA At - Large bid

By the way, is everyone pulling for BC or against? That's a tough one, you don't want them possibly getting a host over us, but playing at BC as a host wouldn't be a bad backup plan to us not getting a host. Close proximity and we know we can beat them at their place.

Good God, such drama. Can't we find the easy middle ground between "the Big East is being cheated" and "the Big East is so bad we're not a look for the tourney if we don't win the conference?" There is no bias in the RPI. No one computer formula is the only way to objectively compare teams, but it is what it is and it's not unreasonable or it wouldn't be so heavily relied upon. Which mean that no one in the Big East other than us has earned it's way into the tourney, and our winning percentage, combined with our record against combined Quad 1 and Quad 2, has already played us in.

I want to win the tournament because I want the players to win championships. But I'm not worried about getting into the NCAAs either.
If you took away the teams' names on the RPI list and just had Team A, Team B, etc., and stacked them up not knowing who is who it's not a gimmie (under the losing 2 in a row this week scenario). If you think it's a lock you're biased (plus listening to so-called "experts) which is ok we all are. "Combined Q1 and Q2" is not a metric. Otherwise, they would combine it. The committee isn't (or shouldn't be). No drama at all. Last year won BE reg season/tourney RPI ~25 and got a 3 seed. Need to face the hard facts.
 
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Re: BE vs. Big 10, etc.: For me most second-tier teams (For me defined as >30 RPI - Xavier, Michigan, NC State, etc) the margins are razor thin via eye test. So the primary way to separate is to look at the detailed RPI metrics. From the teams you mentioned Xavier and Nebraska aren't NCAA teams unless auto-bid. Rutgers I like more than most people (saw them in person so I'm biased) but SOS is a killer and thus they are auto-bid. Uconn's SOS hurts as it is amongst the worst in the top 40. Also Uconn the high # of Q4 wins (29) and low # of Q1 wins (5) are amongst the worst in RPI top 50. Hence my angst with Uconn when you lay the body of work out. In the committee room, you can really nitpick at Uconn. Have they really been tested versus a school such as Oregon or NC State? Also who they played OOC didn't help. OSU didn't make the B10 tourney, Cal barely squeaked in P10 tourney, SDSU stunk, etc. Columbia loss also hurt metric-wise. Bottom line: I don't think the BE is getting screwed at all. Feels like a one-bid conference to me. Thus I don't think Uconn is a true "lock" if they lose 2 in a row this week. I don't think that will happen but worst case scenario. I really looked at the data this morning and putting my bias aside Uconn doesn't stack up optimally. You have to hope intangibles come into play. Also how the auto bids play out matters and how many get sucked up by otherwise non-tourney teams. I'm probably paranoid but need to play well this week which is what they can control. Anything else you're chasing your tail.
I hate to say it but I am starting to lean this way as well. Last year it was obvious how our OOC opponents fell off big time. I hadn't looked into it much this year but it seems like so many of our opponents trended downward late where they just feel below the Q2/Q3/Q4 cutoffs.
 
I hate to say it but I am starting to lean this way as well. Last year it was obvious how our OOC opponents fell off big time. I hadn't looked into it much this year but it seems like so many of our opponents trended downward late where they just feel below the Q2/Q3/Q4 cutoffs.
Just to be clear I think they're going to play well this week. They may have caught their second wind, fought through a rough patch, and are now ready to move forward (SP pending of course). I'd be surprised if they didn't play well. Just trying to look at more concerning scenarios.
 
Just to be clear I think they're going to play well this week. They may have caught their second wind, fought through a rough patch, and are now ready to move forward (SP pending of course). I'd be surprised if they didn't play well. Just trying to look at more concerning scenarios.
Yup totally understood. I was meaning moreso that we do have some flaws on our paper resume that could be nitpicked by the committee despite the high rankings.
 
Yup totally understood. I was meaning moreso that we do have some flaws on our paper resume that could be nitpicked by the committee despite the high rankings.
Last year I had the view some others had here. Uconn was in regardless of BE tourney, no sweat, etc. But when I saw Georgia Southern was hosting then on Monday Uconn got a 3 in a brutal regional that changed everything for me. I was stunned. That was the new lay of the land in my mind. The other piece of data that stuck in my mind was 2019. They were 36-23 entering NCAAs and got a 2 seed (Okla St. year) with a brutal schedule. These data points tell me what the committee (in general) places value on. Totally understand others' views I'm just throwing my thoughts into the pot. I also feel the so-called bracket "experts" who have been mocking the tourney for weeks tend to lull Uconn fans into a sense of security. You see your team on the 1 or 2 line for the last 6 weeks you believe it. Looking forward to this afternoon.
 
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Last year I had the view some others had here. Uconn was in regardless of BE tourney, no sweat, etc. But when I saw Georgia Southern was hosting then on Monday Uconn got a 3 in a brutal regional that changed everything for me. I was stunned. That was the new lay of the land in my mind. The other piece of data that stuck in my mind was 2019. They were 36-23 entering NCAAs and got a 2 seed (Okla St. year) with a brutal schedule. These data points tell me what the committee (in general) places value on. Totally understand others' views I'm just throwing my thoughts into the pot. I also feel the so-called bracket "experts" who have been mocking the tourney for weeks tend to lull Uconn fans into a sense of security. You see your team on the 1 or 2 line for the last 6 weeks you believe it. Looking forward to this afternoon.

One difference between the "bracket experts" and the committee is that the "bracket experts" publicize their projections multiple times (almost every week) during the season, while the committee does it once right at the end of the season. Once the bracket experts project one thing and publicize it, I would think it is pretty hard to drift too far away from that projection in future updates unless a team really goes on a dive or a good run. Also, there is RPI to deal with, and that can certainly change as the season progresses, such as UConn now having played just 3 top 50 RPI teams while earlier on teams such as Rutgers were registering in the Top 50.
 
One difference between the "bracket experts" and the committee is that the "bracket experts" publicize their projections multiple times (almost every week) during the season, while the committee does it once right at the end of the season. Once the bracket experts project one thing and publicize it, I would think it is pretty hard to drift too far away from that projection in future updates unless a team really goes on a dive or a good run. Also, there is RPI to deal with, and that can certainly change as the season progresses, such as UConn now having played just 3 top 50 RPI teams while earlier on teams such as Rutgers were registering in the Top 50.
Your last point here can’t be overstated. The committee (understandably) puts a lot of weight on top 50 wins, and we went from 6-3 vs top 50 to 1-2 vs top 50 overnight.
 
12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
7 - 1 / .875. ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
15. - 5/ .750 ...... 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750. New England
10 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 40 - 13/ .755% ..... 41 - 16 / .719
(2) 23 .... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
12 - 5 / .706% ........ 11 - 6 / .647% - National
7 - 1 / .875. ......... 7 - 1/ .875- Northeast
15. - 5/ .750 ...... 15 - 5/ .750 - Big East
6 - 2 / .750......... 6 - 2 / .750. New England
1 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - Big East tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 41 - 13/ .759% ..... 41 - 16 / .719
(2) 23 .... < 50 RPI
(3) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Maybe I am crazy, but would love to host a regional as a 2 seed. Probably wouldn’t get one of upper echelon 1 seed in bracket, plus we would advantage of playing at home.
Also probably would not be playing a upper echelon 1 seed in Super regional.
I know I really just need to worry about BE Tournament right now, but a man can dream.
Go Huskies!!!
 
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Latest From D1 Baseball:


BOSTON
1 Boston College (14)
4 Loyola Marymount*

2 Connecticut*
3 Texas A&M

Baseball America update after last night’s games:


Brighton, Mass.
1. (15) Boston College*
2. Connecticut*
3. Northeastern
4. Army*

-> Xavier, which was out a day ago, moves into the field after beating Connecticut to advance to the championship game of the Big East Tournament. That move came at the expense of Oklahoma, which lost in walkoff fashion against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament, falling into the loser's bracket. For further bubble analysis, check out Bubble Watch <-

Lexington, Ky.
1. (13) Kentucky^ ⬇️
2. Indiana
3. Xavier*
4. Ball State*
 
If we can't host the BC regional would absolutely be the best case scenario. Let's avoid a SEC regional if at all possible.
 
Baseball America update after last night’s games:


Brighton, Mass.
1. (15) Boston College*
2. Connecticut*
3. Northeastern
4. Army*

-> Xavier, which was out a day ago, moves into the field after beating Connecticut to advance to the championship game of the Big East Tournament. That move came at the expense of Oklahoma, which lost in walkoff fashion against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament, falling into the loser's bracket. For further bubble analysis, check out Bubble Watch <-

Lexington, Ky.
1. (13) Kentucky^ ⬇️
2. Indiana
3. Xavier*
4. Ball State*


Sure :D

WINSTON-SALEM
1 Wake Forest* (1)
4 Maine*
2 Connecticut*
3 UNC Wilmington*

BOSTON
1 Boston College (14)
4 Loyola Marymount*
2 South Carolina
3 Northeastern
 
Baseball America update after last night’s games:


Brighton, Mass.
1. (15) Boston College*
2. Connecticut*
3. Northeastern
4. Army*

-> Xavier, which was out a day ago, moves into the field after beating Connecticut to advance to the championship game of the Big East Tournament. That move came at the expense of Oklahoma, which lost in walkoff fashion against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament, falling into the loser's bracket. For further bubble analysis, check out Bubble Watch <-

Lexington, Ky.
1. (13) Kentucky^ ⬇️
2. Indiana
3. Xavier*
4. Ball State*
Putting BC, UConn & Northeastern in the same bracket would be borderline criminal as among other things it would be the committee giving an enormous F&$# Y@% to the northeast. With three schools that have a reasonable chance of advancing to the super regionals, this ensures that there will only be one.

Additionally, I'm not sure Northeastern doesn't warrant a two seed (granted, it should be in a bracket with one of the better one seeds).

We have to accept the cards as they are dealt and in all candor, I'm not sure we have enough pitching to make it through a sub regional, regardless of the opponents unless we could pull it off in three games. There wont be a region where there isn't one school that is clearly better than us and one we'd need to be at our best to beat.

I'll follow with how I've felt once every season ends: how do we get more pitching? For us to get to where we want to be we will need a lot more than we've had.
 
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Big kudos to Northeastern for their 7-0 record against Quad 1 opponents. Shows the committee that they can beat high-quality teams. I’m impressed.
 
I'll follow with how I've felt once every season ends: how do we get more pitching? For us to get to where we want to be we will need a lot more than we've had.

The Portal changes the calculus on roster building. This staff has shown over the years that they can identify, attract and keep quality pitchers - my sense is this year just hasn’t panned out as Penders/McDonald had in mind.
 
The Portal changes the calculus on roster building. This staff has shown over the years that they can identify, attract and keep quality pitchers - my sense is this year just hasn’t panned out as Penders/McDonald had in mind.

Im thinking it's a lot harder to succeed moving up from Div.3 as a pitcher than it is for a hitter. Just a guess.
 
The Portal changes the calculus on roster building. This staff has shown over the years that they can identify, attract and keep quality pitchers - my sense is this year just hasn’t panned out as Penders/McDonald had in mind.
Yeah, but when you look at things, 2011 our downfall was facing defending champion on there way to repeating as champions South Carolina. Last year, a few years back against Ok St, we lost ultimately because we ran out of arms.

I know McDonald is highly respected as a pitching coach at this level and he has done a tremendous job. The thing is there is only so much that a coach can do. We need to find a way to increase the number of quality arms on the roster or the hump we're trying to get over (spot in the CWS) will always be a mountain.
 
Yeah, but when you look at things, 2011 our downfall was facing defending champion on there way to repeating as champions South Carolina. Last year, a few years back against Ok St, we lost ultimately because we ran out of arms.

I know McDonald is highly respected as a pitching coach at this level and he has done a tremendous job. The thing is there is only so much that a coach can do. We need to find a way to increase the number of quality arms on the roster or the hump we're trying to get over (spot in the CWS) will always be a mountain.
But it also takes a lot of luck when you're playing college baseball. We were a game away from the CWS last year with a dominant pitching staff, and that was after Reggie Crawford had TJ surgery and Frank Mozzicotto and Owen Kellington blew up and never made it to campus. None of that can be predicted or planned for
 
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