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Men Wins needed for 2022 NCAA At Large Bid

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What's weird is we are 19-6 and I feel like we blew at least 4 games and while getting the win, haven't played to our potential on some of those wins. I must have high expectations.
I totally agree. We are off to our best start in years, but I keep thinking we should have a few more wins. Every time we lose a game, I believe the sky is falling. Like someone posted before, even the Babe Ruth Yankees lost 30% of their games.

I am going to try to have more realistic expectations for rest of year, but it will be difficult.

Go Huskies!!!

The expectation in college baseball is to win your weekend series, and hopefully win a goodly majority of your midweek games. If you get a sweep, that is great, but you just can't go into series expecting a sweep, otherwise you are just setting yourself up for disappointment that will ruin your weekend. Lesser teams do beat good teams in baseball, probably more so than in any other sport.

Only problem here for UConn is that with their limited strength of schedule in the coming games plus they play a bunch of games at home,. After getting an RPI boost from all their road games that they have played and won, not sure if UConn achieve a big RPI bump, but we can always hope so. We'll see what transpires.
 
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Another weekend series won. We are now 8-2 in 1 run , 2 run or extra innings games. As @dbmill stated we have a pretty busy schedule coming up. We have 12 games over next 16 days, and 16 games over next 21 days. The average RPI of teams we play over next 21 days is 168, ranging from 85 -240.

April is a busy month, Easter seems to be the dividing line. Before Easter UConn plays 12 games in 16 days (that started April 1), and after Easter they have a stretch of 10 games in 13 days starting on April 19, again with having no more than a day off from playing. They just happen to have two days in a row off from games starting from Easter, the only time in April that it happens for UConn.
 
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Here is something I'm sure no one was expecting, including me. The Big East is currently No. 11 in conference RPI.

On March 9th the Big East was 20th, so moving up to 11 is nice. We have 3 teams in top 100 RPI. Which is the same amount as the AAC.
Creighton has won 9 of last 10, and Xavier 8 of last 10. Also Georgetown is now 18-9. I like the trend
 
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It is highly unlikely that we will be given an opportunity to host an NCAA Regional, given our schedule, so just win the league for an automatic berth.
 
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It is highly unlikely that we will be given an opportunity to host an NCAA Regional, given our schedule, so just win the league for an automatic berth.
I definitely agree that our schedule is not helping us, but I do feel we have a good chance of hosting a regional. Obviously we need a superior record. Think we need 45-46 wins or better. If we get 45-46 wins, we should be ranked in top 20. Our RPI may not be as high as we would like, but we can’t do anything about that except continue to win games.
I really believe being a Northern school gives us an advantage. Yearly, there are not many Northern schools that the NCAA gets to consider. Also our new beautiful home campus facility gives us an edge.
Let’s just keep winning and make it very difficult for NCAA to not pick us
 
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For a point of comparison, UConn was able to host a regional in 2010 (at Dodd Stadium; if we were to try and bid again, Dodd or Dunkin will undoubtedly be the location we try to use; I don’t think we could meet the financial guarantee in Storrs) with a 47-14 record, hosting the regional Florida State would have had.

The following side note is useful to establish: the bid process for regionals and super-regionals is mostly, mostly, meritocratic. Because baseball is one of the few sports where tournament play is revenue-producing, the selection process incorporates a bid element.

Ordinarily your national seeds (those 1-8 in the normal RPI) are guaranteed a regional hosting spot and will host a super regional should they advance that far, and the remaining number ones are “guaranteed” a regional host.

It is however possible, as UConn did in 2010, to bid one’s way in. Generally speaking, though, you still have to be a high performing team to supplant what would otherwise be a top contender (Florida State in 2010 was an 18 RPI team and UConn was 26; the NCAA decided that was a fair swap to get more regional flavor in what is usually a decidedly Southern and Western affair; the Seminoles ended up earning a super regional hosting bid by winning in Norwich, and also from Louisville the national seed from that bracket set losing in their own regional; had UConn won, they would have been up for a bid against Vanderbilt from the other bracket and probably would have lost).
 
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For a point of comparison, UConn was able to host a regional in 2010 (at Dodd Stadium; if we were to try and bid again, Dodd or Dunkin will undoubtedly be the location we try to use; I don’t think we could meet the financial guarantee in Storrs) with a 47-14 record, hosting the regional Florida State would have had.

The following side note is useful to establish: the bid process for regionals and super-regionals is mostly, mostly, meritocratic. Because baseball is one of the few sports where tournament play is revenue-producing, the selection process incorporates a bid element.

Ordinarily your national seeds (those 1-8 in the normal RPI) are guaranteed a regional hosting spot and will host a super regional should they advance that far, and the remaining number ones are “guaranteed” a regional host.

It is however possible, as UConn did in 2010, to bid one’s way in. Generally speaking, though, you still have to be a high performing team to supplant what would otherwise be a top contender (Florida State in 2010 was an 18 RPI team and UConn was 26; the NCAA decided that was a fair swap to get more regional flavor in what is usually a decidedly Southern and Western affair; the Seminoles ended up earning a super regional hosting bid by winning in Norwich, and also from Louisville the national seed from that bracket set losing in their own regional; had UConn won, they would have been up for a bid against Vanderbilt from the other bracket and probably would have lost).

I believe UConn built Elliot Ballpark with the expectation that they could host a regional there if the opportunity presented itself.
 
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For a point of comparison, UConn was able to host a regional in 2010 (at Dodd Stadium; if we were to try and bid again, Dodd or Dunkin will undoubtedly be the location we try to use; I don’t think we could meet the financial guarantee in Storrs) with a 47-14 record, hosting the regional Florida State would have had.

I believe UConn built Elliot Ballpark with the expectation that they could host a regional there if the opportunity presented itself.

Dodd Stadium in Norwich is very busy this summer, hosting both the Norwich Sea Unicorns of the Futures League and the Mystic Schooners of the NECBL. Meanwhile Dunkin has the their own minor league team. Just decided to check, Dodd and Dunkin are both already busy with games the first weekend of June, which further supports the idea that on the odd chance that UConn gets to host a regional, the games would be in Storrs. I believe Coach Penders pretty much has said that during interviews where he talked about the new ballpark as a possible host sight in the future.
 
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After a bad start we took care of business. The game after a huge offensive performance, always worries me. Hopefully we have some hits left in those bats. Looking like rain gets past us and we get to play today.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
5 - 2 / .714 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 20 - 7 / .741 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 46 ....... < 50 RPI

(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East
Something More Aggressive

current record ......................season goal
(1) 20 - 7 / .741 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 46 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll
 
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My worries of our bats being silenced today, was unwarranted. We had a relatively easy 10 -1 victory today. For the year we are winning at a .750 percentage. As a barometer, the record last week for the top 25 teams was 61 - 41. That is a winning percentage of just under .600. So we are doing fine.

Hoping to keep our streak of Friday victories in tack vs St. Johns

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 21 - 7 / .750 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 47 ....... < 50 RPI

(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal

(1) 21 - 7 / .750 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 47 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll
 
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Our Friday night streak stays in tack. Start the weekend and Big East season with a comfortable win. As others have stated in other threads, the caliber of Big East baseball is definitely a few steps down from AAC. Our RPI fell from 47 - 62 with our victory. I expect it to fall further, even if we win our next 2 games. It will really drop if we lose 1 or both of games this weekend. The only thing we can do is to keep winning at a very high rate. I think a decent to good record, will not get us an At Large bid. Our record needs to be very good to superior. If we don't get to 40 wins, I would be very nervous on selection day.

With that said , lets win another weekend series today.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
1 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 22 - 7 / .759 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 62 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East


Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal

(1) 22 - 7 / .759 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 62 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll
 
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I think a decent to good record, will not get us an At Large bid. Our record needs to be very good to superior. If we don't get to 40 wins, I would be very nervous on selection day.

Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?
 
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Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?
I am starting to have doubts about the 40 win and RPI of less then 50 as a combo goal. I did my research (over 10 years ago). At that time every team ( except 1) that had at least 40 wins and a RPI of less then 50 made the NCAA tournament. This was over a 5 year span.
I think our problem is not getting to 40 wins, but having a RPI of less then 50. Our schedule is not helping us, and we don’t have many future games vs highly ranked RPI teams.
Obviously hoping we sweep St. John’s. It will be interesting to see where our RPI is after this weekend.
 

huskypantz

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Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?
If they go 18-14 the rest of the way they likely would not be top 2 big east. I hear what you’re saying but the other metrics would tank.
 
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Another weekend series won. Pat Gallagher was spectacular with a complete game. Giving up only 4 hits and 1 walk. Stock, Morton with 4 hits and Dana contributed 3 hits, so we had plenty of offense. Our RPI dropped1 (to 61) with victory. I know I am beating a dead horse, but the only thing we can do is beat who we have on our schedule. Nothing we can do about the RPI.

I really believe we are going to have an outstanding overall record. I don't think we should have a problem with an At Large bid, but getting a regional without a solid RPI will be difficult.

Lets sweep today.

Go Huskies !!!
current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll
 
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Another weekend series won. Pat Gallagher was spectacular with a complete game. Giving up only 4 hits and 1 walk. Stock, Morton with 4 hits and Dana contributed 3 hits, so we had plenty of offense. Our RPI dropped1 (to 61) with victory. I know I am beating a dead horse, but the only thing we can do is beat who we have on our schedule. Nothing we can do about the RPI.

I really believe we are going to have an outstanding overall record. I don't think we should have a problem with an At Large bid, but getting a regional without a solid RPI will be difficult.

Lets sweep today.

Go Huskies !!!
current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll

UConn currently has a 4-3 record against Top 100 RPI teams. With so few games against the top 100, and together with their current RPI (of course, both numbers could change for the better), I would be a bit surprised at this point if they would get to host a regional. Of course, they are getting some notice in the the Top 25 polls, so that is certainly a positive. The current weekend goal still needs to keep taking weekend conference series, plus the vast majority of the midweek games. While you can't count on them, some weekend sweeps would certainly help out as well, especially starting with today's game since the opportunity presents itself. We'll see how it all goes as the season continues.

As always, I'm most interested to see UConn baseball keep adding to their collection of invites to the NCAA Tournament that they have had since the 2010 season.
 
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If UConn does end up with a really solid record, I hope them being in the northeast + a new on campus stadium = regional host
 
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We sweep St. Johns in convincing fashion to start Big East season at 3-0. We are at approximately the half way point in the season. Below are some random stats. Lets have another big week.

(1) We moved to 20th in recent poll

(2) Tied for 9th in the country in scoring margin ( +4.5 runs)

(3) Tied for 2nd in run allowed per game (3.4)

(4) Tenth best winning % (77.4%)

(5) Ninth most wins in country (24)

(6) Tenth best road record (14-5)


Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
3 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 24 - 7 / .774 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East


Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal

(1) 24 - 7 / .774 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 20 ........ < 20 poll
 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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I kind of feel like we need to win out and win the BET just to get the seed be deserve.
 
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I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!
 
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I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!
Hard to forecast how good teams will actually be. URI and Kent State generally are solid programs but are just having a down year.
 

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