Men Wins needed for 2022 NCAA At Large Bid

[ucjoet]

Another year has gone by and we are only a few weeks away from the start of the 2022 UConn Baseball Season. Looking forward to another exciting and successful year. Was very disappointed when our version of Shohei Ohtani ( Reggie Crawford) was injured. He would have been fun to watch. Just hoping his rehab is successful and one day he is on the baseball field at full strength. He is a special talent.

As I say each year, thanks to all of you that post info in the off season. It is very informative and greatly appreciated. Also many of the same people post during live games. I am ( and I assume many others) are very thankful for your updates. That is sometimes the only way I am able to follow the game.

Below is my yearly chart. I decided to have only 1 category for Out Of Conference games ( last year I broke it up into 2 categories). There is also a category for New England games, Big East Games and Big East Tourney.

I realize that by no means is this chart perfect and it does not mean we will receive a bid even if we reach / surpass the goals below. But from past experience it does give us a pretty good idea if we are on track for a bid. If any of you look over my chart and find errors, please let me know.

Can't wait for season to begin.

GO Huskies !!!

The 3 Criteria
(1) Minimum 40 wins
(2) RPI less then 50
(3) Top 2 teams in Big East

I would like to ask 1 thing
(1) Can this thread be pinned

current record........... season goal
0 - 0 / .000% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 0 - 0 / .000 ...... 40 - 21 / .655

(2) Not yet Applicable ....... < 50 RPI

(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[Guapo]

The single best thing on the entire Boneyard. Go Huskies!

 

[HookC22]

Sure sign of spring! A pre-season thanks again for all your hard work!

 

[ucjoet]

Always great to start weekend (and season) with a victory, over what I believe is going to end up being a very good USF team. Pitching was outstanding with 20 K's. Peterson pitched a great game with 13 K's and 1 Earned Run. Willis finished off game with 2 K's. I think we have a very strong #1 pitcher, and closer. But man was I excited to see the effort Ian Cooke put in. Never easy for a freshman to pitch so well in his first outing. He passed every test with flying colors.

We had 13 hits. Stock and Simmons with 3 each, Fedko and Dana with 2 each. Nice way for Dana to start his UConn career with a game winning HR.

Lets get another one today. GO Huskies !!!!

current record........... season goal
1 - 0 / 1.000% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 1 - 0 / 1.000 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) Not yet Applicable ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[ucjoet]

Have a thing about posting after a loss, so waited till today to update chart. Glad I did, because we got a relatively easy 9-2 win over Louisville. Loved effort by Enzo Stefanoni (plus love that name). If he can keeps it up , I think we have a solid weekend rotation. I am chalking up Gallaghers effort to first game jitters, I expect him to be solid for us the rest of the year. Also loved that our young pitchers were outstanding. Cooke and Sullivan are going to really help our bullpen.

I included our RPI below. Realize this mean close to nothing at beginning of season, but listed it since it was available.

Winning the weekend is always the goal ( 2-1, or 3-0), and it is even a better way to start season. Lets go out and win next weekend.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
2 - 1 / .667% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 2 - 1 / .667 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 21 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[ucjoet]

Love winning the Friday night weekend opener. Tough trying to keep track of Hockey, Women's Hoop and baseball all at the same time. Peterson proving to be a true number 1 starter, and Cooke has been exceptional. If not for some defensive lapses (need to clean that up), we probably would have had a shutout. Looking for Gallagher to turn it around today.

Lets get another one today. Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
3 - 1 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 3 - 1 / .750 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 96 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[ucjoet]

We start season by winning our first 2 weekends, hoping for a sweep this afternoon. Wanted to see how Gallagher responded to last weekends sub par performance. He passed that test with flying colors. Also nice to see Padilla play so well in his first game. It will be interesting to see how he is used the rest of the season.

I realize the RPI is just about useless at this point. May not be relevant for another month or so. But I am going to state the obvious and we need to keep winning. The Big East (besides UConn) has an 8-32 record to date. That is a winning % of .200. When I do the chart below , I don't take into account that we can get an automatic bid by winning BE tourney. I am just considering what we need for an AT Large bid. With that said, we are going to have a tough time getting a very good RPI, because (so far) the BE teams seem to be very weak.

So I really believe we are going to need an exceptional record ( if we don't get auto bid), to be considered for an At Large bid. This great start is very important. Lets keep it going today.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
4 - 1 / .800% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 - 1 / .800 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 104 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[businesslawyer]

We start season by winning our first 2 weekends, hoping for a sweep this afternoon. Wanted to see how Gallagher responded to last weekends sub par performance. He passed that test with flying colors. Also nice to see Padilla play so well in his first game. It will be interesting to see how he is used the rest of the season.

I realize the RPI is just about useless at this point. May not be relevant for another month or so. But I am going to state the obvious and we need to keep winning. The Big East (besides UConn) has an 8-32 record to date. That is a winning % of .200. When I do the chart below , I don't take into account that we can get an automatic bid by winning BE tourney. I am just considering what we need for an AT Large bid. With that said, we are going to have a tough time getting a very good RPI, because (so far) the BE teams seem to be very weak.

So I really believe we are going to need an exceptional record ( if we don't get auto bid), to be considered for an At Large bid. This great start is very important. Lets keep it going today.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
4 - 1 / .800% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 - 1 / .800 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 104 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

Not a criticism, but your metrics for putting ourselves in good shape for an at large bid are based on the American, not the Big East, and didn’t change nearly as much as they needed to. But all the team can do about the strength of schedule, limited not just by the weakness of its new conference but the limited number of top 100 teams they can play on a weekday due to geographic limitations, is win.

 

[ucjoet]

Not a criticism, but your metrics for putting ourselves in good shape for an at large bid are based on the American, not the Big East, and didn’t change nearly as much as they needed to. But all the team can do about the strength of schedule, limited not just by the weakness of its new conference but the limited number of top 100 teams they can play on a weekday due to geographic limitations, is win.

I appreciate your points and do not take them as criticism. I believe I started this chart in the 2009 or 2010 season. A family friend’s son ( Ryan Moore) started his UConn career at that time, and I became more interested in following the team. At that time UConn was still in the Big East. I based my chart on research I did on past season stats from the Warren Nolan site.

What I found is that if a team ( regardless of conference) had won a minimum of 40 games and had an RPI of less then 50, almost always received an at large bid.

So it almost always did not matter what conference a team was in, just as long as those 2 criteria were met.

Like I always say, this chart IS NOT perfect. It’s just a way to see if we are relatively on track for a bid. Hoping people enjoy it, because I have fun updating it.

Businesslawyer, I think we are both basically saying the same thing. With our weaker conference / schedule ( not our fault), we need to win more games then when we were in AAC.

I appreciate you viewing my updates.

Go Huskies !!!!

 

[dbmill]

We start season by winning our first 2 weekends, hoping for a sweep this afternoon. Wanted to see how Gallagher responded to last weekends sub par performance. He passed that test with flying colors. Also nice to see Padilla play so well in his first game. It will be interesting to see how he is used the rest of the season.

I realize the RPI is just about useless at this point. May not be relevant for another month or so. But I am going to state the obvious and we need to keep winning. The Big East (besides UConn) has an 8-32 record to date. That is a winning % of .200. When I do the chart below , I don't take into account that we can get an automatic bid by winning BE tourney. I am just considering what we need for an AT Large bid. With that said, we are going to have a tough time getting a very good RPI, because (so far) the BE teams seem to be very weak.

So I really believe we are going to need an exceptional record ( if we don't get auto bid), to be considered for an At Large bid. This great start is very important. Lets keep it going today.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
4 - 1 / .800% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 - 1 / .800 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 104 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

I've said it before, but I don't think college baseball RPI really starts to solidify until mid to late March. In the past, that is the time D1Baseball.com starts posting it on their website. Right now you get a lot crazy gyrations with teams making big jumps and drops as the game results come in on any particular day.

 

[ucjoet]

Unfortunately, did not get a chance to follow most of the game. But we got a win to get us to 5-1. Nice way to start the season.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
5 - 1 / .833% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 5 - 1 / .833 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 97 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[ucjoet]

Do not remember the last time we started season 6 - 1. Also this is the best performance ( I can remember), from our Number 1 pitcher to start a season. The combo of Peterson, Cooke and Willis is going to win us many a Friday night game. Love that Huber responded with 3 hits, and that Stock continued his hitting streak.

A big shout out to Casey Dana for the play of the game. Great throw at the plate for a inning ending double play. Gutsy win last night. Lets win the series today.

Heading to Bidwell Tavern and then Mens game this afternoon, so keep the updates coming. I thank you in advance.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
6 - 1 / .857% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 6 - 1 / .857 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 41 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[ucjoet]

Was at hoop game, so followed by periodically checking this board. Thanks again for updates. So we win another weekend. Great start to season. Very happy to see Pat Gallagher bounce back in his last 2 starts. Our pitching has been outstanding with a .173 ERA, and we are hitting .298 as a team. If we keep this up, we are obviously going to have a very successful season. Always get greedy when we win the first 2. Lets get the sweep.

Question for everyone. Are we ranked if we win today and get to 8-1.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
7 - 1 / .875% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 7 - 1 / .875 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 34 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[businesslawyer]

To state the obvious, this team is far ahead of any reasonable goal for the barnstorming piece of its season. More wins please.

 

[hardcorehusky]

So would today be considered a much bigger amenity?

 

[ucjoet]

We start season at 8 - 1 with win today, Wow. The pitching has been outstanding. The only negative ( and it's a stretch), is that we have not seen how good some of our relief pitchers can be. Our starters have been so good that we have not gone deep into the bullpen. It looks like we will get a staff day on Tuesday. Also with mid week games , that problem will be solved. Peterson has been fabulous, Gallagher has bounced back with two great outings and Enzo has been spectacular. His 22 k to 0 walk ratio is crazy.

We also seem to have depth with our position players. Coach Penders will have many options when filling out his lineup. Great start to season, lets get a win vs UHart Tuesday.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
8 - 1 / .889% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 8 - 1 / .889 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 19 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[dbmill]

We start season at 8 - 1 with win today, Wow. The pitching has been outstanding. The only negative ( and it's a stretch), is that we have not seen how good some of our relief pitchers can be. Our starters have been so good that we have not gone deep into the bullpen. It looks like we will get a staff day on Tuesday. Also with mid week games , that problem will be solved. Peterson has been fabulous, Gallagher has bounced back with two great outings and Enzo has been spectacular. His 22 k to 0 walk ratio is crazy.

We also seem to have depth with our position players. Coach Penders will have many options when filling out his lineup. Great start to season, lets get a win vs UHart Tuesday.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
8 - 1 / .889% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 8 - 1 / .889 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 19 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

It is still very early into this season, but this UConn team appears to have a lot of depth both on the pitching staff and among the position players. We'll see if we still feel that is the case when we get further into the season and after the team has played a bunch of midweek games.

While I've been hoping Ian Cooke will get some midweek starts, I definitely think it is a good idea for the Hartford game for it to be a staff game for the pitchers. The guys coming out of the bullpen could definitely use the time on the mound. I would expect that we will see a more normal midweek starter rotation starting to develop on the West Coast trip the following week.

 

[ucjoet]

Unfortunately did not get a chance to follow much of the game because of work. Did periodically tune into to 97.9 to catch up on score. Obviously happy with another win. But more importantly happy that we got many pitchers a chance to pitch.

Off to California for 8 games in 11 days. Will be a good test for team and especially our pitching staff.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
8 - 1 / .889% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
1 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 9 - 1 / .900 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 26 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

 

[huskypantz]

Unfortunately did not get a chance to follow much of the game because of work. Did periodically tune into to 97.9 to catch up on score. Obviously happy with another win. But more importantly happy that we got many pitchers a chance to pitch.

Off to California for 8 games in 11 days. Will be a good test for team and especially our pitching staff.

Go Huskies !!!


current record........... season goal
8 - 1 / .889% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
1 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 9 - 1 / .900 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 26 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) Not yet applicable ........ Top 2 Big East

This road trip will help define whether our postseason criteria should be a tourney invite or something a little more aggressive.

 

[ucjoet]

This road trip will help define whether our postseason criteria should be a tourney invite or something a little more aggressive.

Husky pants, I totally agree. I am prepared to start a second chart for “ something a little more aggressive “. But I am a little superstitious ( being Italian) and want to wait till after the California trip.

I am thinking if we go a minimum of 5-3, a new chart may begin.

Go Huskies !!!

 

[huskypantz]

Husky pants, I totally agree. I am prepared to start a second chart for “ something a little more aggressive “. But I am a little superstitious ( being Italian) and want to wait till after the California trip.

I am thinking if we go a minimum of 5-3, a new chart may begin.

Go Huskies !!!

Love what you do @ucjoet - no pressure! and I don't want to jinx us either. I am a little concerned that the BE appears to be pretty darn weak. I expected a drop in talent moving from the AAC but was hoping for a little more from Creighton and SJ.

 

[dbmill]

Love what you do @ucjoet - no pressure! and I don't want to jinx us either. I am a little concerned that the BE appears to be pretty darn weak. I expected a drop in talent moving from the AAC but was hoping for a little more from Creighton and SJ.

To me the big disappointments in the Big East so far this season are St. John's and Seton Hall, they have one win between them at this point. What makes it more disappointing is that both these schools usually have solidly competitive baseball programs, but you have to start wondering about this season for both of them the way things are going.

 

[ucjoet]

Love what you do @ucjoet - no pressure! and I don't want to jinx us either. I am a little concerned that the BE appears to be pretty darn weak. I expected a drop in talent moving from the AAC but was hoping for a little more from Creighton and SJ.

Yes the Big East is definitely a bunch of steps down from the AAC. I know it is early, but currently the AAC is ranked as the 5th best conference. The BE comes in at 20. We really need to win as much as possible (stating the obvious), because the BE schedule is not going to help us.

Also important will be games vs BC, Bryant and Northeastern. Again let’s just keep winning and everything will take care of itself.

 

[hardcorehusky]

Yes the Big East is definitely a bunch of steps down from the AAC. I know it is early, but currently the AAC is ranked as the 5th best conference. The BE comes in at 20. We really need to win as much as possible (stating the obvious), because the BE schedule is not going to help us.

Also important will be games vs BC, Bryant and Northeastern. Again let’s just keep winning and everything will take care of itself.

What is scary is our midweek games might be tougher than the weekend games. That means our midweek starters need to be really good.

 

[dbmill]

What is scary is our midweek games might be tougher than the weekend games. That means our midweek starters need to be really good.

I noticed that before. That is a big reason why I would like to see Ian Cooke as a midweek starter. Plus in the post season you would need a fourth starter anyway.