Wins needed for 2017 at large bid | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Wins needed for 2017 at large bid

dbmill said:
That sounds about right. Right now UConn is against teams in the RPI top 50, the Huskies could really use wins against these teams. Right now Houston, South Florida, and Rhode Island (48) all fit that bill. I kind of think UConn needs to go at least 3-3 against Houston and South Florida, pick up the win against Rhode Island, and win the final series against East Carolina. That would give UConn plenty of quality wins, but it also isn't going to be easy.
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I meant to say that the Huskies are 2-5 against teams in the top 50 RPI. Looks like I skipped that part.
 
Important week. Think we are either squarely on bubble or just on the outside looking in. Going 3 - 1 this week would be a big help.


current record.. season goal

10- 8 .556% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
7- 4/ .636% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 25 - 20/ .556..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 45.... <51- RPI

(3) 4th.....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
current record.. season goal

10- 8 .556% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 26 - 20/ .556..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 46.... <51- RPI

(3) 4th.....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
Projected Field of 64 (May 10) | BaseballAmerica.com

>>This is do-or-die time for many of the teams in the field, particularly those who rank in and around the 50s in RPI. Dallas Baptist and Connecticut, for instance, are two of the last four teams in the field, but both need to finish well down the stretch. The No. 46 RPI Huskies will have a chance to bolster their case this weekend against American Athletic Conference leader South Florida (No. 19 in the RPI).<<

Louisville KY
(5) Louisville^
West Virginia
Connecticut
Fairfield*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Last Four In: Dallas Baptist, Washington, Connecticut, Louisiana Tech
First Four Out: Mississippi, Loyola Marymount, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette
Next Four Out: Kansas, San Diego, North Carolina State, Coastal Carolina


Field Of 64 Projection: May 10 | D1Baseball.com
No UConn - just USF/Houston/UCF (same three in BaseballAmerica projected field w/ UConn)
 
It's encouraging to me that the won the first today, and really don't have to travel until the AAC tournament. If they get one more against USF, I think they could essentially win out against the NE schools and ECU.
 
Huge sweep this afternoon. Getting greedy and would love to get another win tomorrow. We are currently tied for first in AAC and our RPI is a very respectable 36. We have 6 more home games before AAC tourney. Need to get a minimum of 4 of those 6. Five of those games are vs teams with decent RPI ( under 85).

Go Huskies !!!!



current record.. season goal

12- 8 .600% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 28 - 20/ .583..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 36.... <51- RPI

(3) Tied 1st.....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
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D1 Digest: Friday, May 12 | D1Baseball.com

>>2- Connecticut
What a hah-YUGE day for the Huskies. I’d even venture to say, barring a complete collapse, Jim Penders’ charges are now locks to get into the NCAA tournament. UConn came into the weekend with a rather un-sexy 26-20 record and a tenuous perch on the NCAA Bubble at No. 43. Change all that now. The Huskies took a pair of games from South Florida, a team that came in with a No. 20 ranking in the RPI, 2-1 in 10 innings and 6-2 in regulation. In game one, staff ace Tim Cate recorded a career-high 14 punchouts in his 7.0 innings of work, allowing six hits along the way. Zac Susi was the hero at the plate, lacing a jog-off, bases-loaded single in the 10th inning to provide the winning run. Game two, starting pitcher Mason Feole also posted a career-high Ks as he struck out eight USF Bulls. Willy Yahn’s RBI double in the third inning proved to be the winning hit as Yahn collected three hits on the day, upping his career number of hits to 197. FYI, this also improves the Huskies to 5-0 against Top 25 teams this season and their RPI jumped up to No. 36.<<
 
College Roundup: Beavers Clinch Pac-12 Title | BaseballAmerica.com

>>Strike Three: Connecticut Sweeps Huge Twinbill- Connecticut was one of the last four teams in the latest Field of 64 projection, a team that had at times led the American Athletic Conference this year but whose inconsistency of late left it at No. 46 in the RPI heading into the weekend. The Huskies needed do damage this weekend to firm up their at-large case—and damage they did.

Hosting a doubleheader against division leader South Florida, the Huskies swept both games, starting with a 2-1 10-inning win in Game One and finishing with a more comfortable 6-2 win in Game Two. Starting pitching led the way for the Huskies, as it has for much of the season. Southpaw Tim Cate was dominant in the first game, striking out 14 to three walks in seven innings in a no-decision. In the second game, Mason Feole struck out eight to one walk and allowed just two runs in seven innings.

The doubleheader sweep once again tightened the AAC standings—which has been tight the entire season. Central Florida and Houston are tied for first place, while USF and UConn are both just 0.5 game back. The conference, as it has since its inception, well once again go down to the wire.<<
 
Probably all of us would have taken 2 wins this past weekend , so I guess we can't complain. Did get greedy after winning first 2. I know mid week games for us this year have not been easy, but we NEED to win these next 2. Don't want to say anything about this weekend , until after the mid week games.

Thinking we are slightly on correct side of bubble, but we need to take care of business this week.

GO HUSKIES


current record.. season goal

12- 9 .571% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 28 - 21/ .571..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 37.... <51- RPI

(3) 4 th .....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
ucjoet said:
Probably all of us would have taken 2 wins this past weekend , so I guess we can't complain. Did get greedy after winning first 2. I know mid week games for us this year have not been easy, but we NEED to win these next 2. Don't want to say anything about this weekend , until after the mid week games.

Thinking we are slightly on correct side of bubble, but we need to take care of business this week.

GO HUSKIES


current record.. season goal

12- 9 .571% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 28 - 21/ .571..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 37.... <51- RPI

(3) 4 th .....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
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I'm guessing UConn will be on the correct side of the bubble if the Huskies win 4 out of the last 5 regular season games. That would probably keep them no lower than 4th in the AAC standings as well (finishing ahead of Tulane also has implications in getting an NCAA tourney bid).

Rossomando will get one of the midweek starts. Given that Poulin now seems to be one of the big bullpen cogs, someone else will get the other midweek start. My guess is that it will be Nepiarsky, but who knows if the coaching staff will agree with me.
 
Last edited:
After the weekend:

baseball.PNG

Final weekend pairings:

USF @UCF
Cincy @ Houston
Tulane @ Memphis
ECU @ UConn
 
UConn's RPI is now 41. Need to finish the season sweep v ECU this weekend. Do that and win 2 or more in the AAC tournament and they should be on the right side of the bubble. The easier way is to win the tournament and take it out of the committee's hands... but anyone who has followed this years team has noticed they seem to be more interested in getting things done the hard way.

AAC RPI
USF 21
UH 22
UCF 27
UConn 41
Tulane 81
Cinci 84
ECU 85
Memphis 94
 
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SAMCRO said:
UConn's RPI is now 41. Need to finish the season sweep v ECU this weekend. Do that and win 2 or more in the AAC tournament and they should be on the right side of the bubble. The easier way is to win the tournament and take it out of the committee's hands... but anyone who has followed this years team has noticed they seem to be more interested in getting things done the hard way.

AAC RPI
USF 21
UH 22
UCF 27
UConn 41
Tulane 81
Cinci 84
ECU 85
Memphis 94
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Can anyone who follows the team closely explain why they always seem to choke against unimpressive New England competition? They beat ranked teams, but never seem to take care of business against the weakest part of their schedule. It's not just this year, it seems like it happens every year.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Can anyone who follows the team closely explain why they always seem to choke against unimpressive New England competition? They beat ranked teams, but never seem to take care of business against the weakest part of their schedule. It's not just this year, it seems like it happens every year.
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In the past, we did not have good pitching depth and it really bit us. This year, I have absolutely no idea what is going on. Our pitching depth has gotten to a point where it is significantly above average nationally, but for whatever reason we cannot hit horrible pitching. We just can't do it.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Can anyone who follows the team closely explain why they always seem to choke against unimpressive New England competition? They beat ranked teams, but never seem to take care of business against the weakest part of their schedule. It's not just this year, it seems like it happens every year.
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Choke is a rather harsh term to describe a loss in baseball. THe best of baseball teams usually lose close to 40 percent of the time. If we were to get a well pitched game against the best college team in America we would have a good chance to win. No one should say the other team choked.
 
LIUCHusky said:
Choke is a rather harsh term to describe a loss in baseball. THe best of baseball teams usually lose close to 40 percent of the time. If we were to get a well pitched game against the best college team in America we would have a good chance to win. No one should say the other team choked.
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Fine. I am simply saying that when they need to win these local games late in a season, as they did last year, they seem to lose them. Meanwhile, they can step up and beat better, southern teams. I understand it's baseball, but we need to do better in this area.
 
Baseball America - Projected Field of 64 (May 17)
Clemson, SC
1. Clemson^
2. Vanderbilt
3. Connecticut
4. Winthrop*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Last four in: Kansas, UCLA, Florida State, North Carolina State
First four out: Louisiana-Lafayette, South Carolina, Coastal Carolina, Utah
Next four out: Dallas Baptist, Loyola Marymount, Washington, St. Mary’s

AAC: UConn (3), UCF (2), Houston (2), USF (2)
Also: Bryant, URI, Yale, Fairfield


D1Baseball.com - Field Of 64 Projection: May 16
Long Beach CA
1 Long Beach State*
4 Binghamton*
3 Connecticut
2 Arizona

AAC: UConn (3), UCF (2), Houston (2), USF (2)
Also: Bryant, URI, Yale

>>There are only two at-large changes this week. South Carolina and Washington are out of the field, while Connecticut and UL Lafayette entered the field of 64<<
 
We would have a chance to win either of those regionals. Vandy would be a tough 2 seed though.
 
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One thing of interest for UConn in its quest to win the weekend series against East Carolina and possibly solidify an at large bid to the NCAA tourney, and that is ECU's record vs. RPI teams:

ECU
RPI Record
1-50 1-18
51-100 9-7
101-200 10-1
201+ 8-0

UConn of course is currently in the RPI top 50, so ECU's record would seem to favor the Huskies this weekend. Still, I figure it is rare where when a team's win loss record so starkly follows its opponents RPI.
 
ECU is also apparently conserving their #1 pitcher for the conference tournament - another advantage.

We play miserably as clear favorites so I hope this team remembers what happens last year when ECU came to town.
 
If we could have only won some of our mid week games vs some very beatable teams, I think we would have been a virtual lock for an at large bid. We still need to take care of business these last 2 homes games and at least make a run in AAC tourney to get a bid.

If nothing else this team makes things interesting.




current record.. season goal

13- 9 .591% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 30 - 22/ .577..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 38.... <51- RPI

(3) tied 2nd .....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
ucjoet said:
If we could have only won some of our mid week games vs some very beatable teams, I think we would have been a virtual lock for an at large bid. We still need to take care of business these last 2 homes games and at least make a run in AAC tourney to get a bid.

If nothing else this team makes things interesting.
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I listened to D1 Baseball's at-large bid podcast the other day. They seemed to think UConn was in a fairly solid spot coming into this series for an at-large. One of them was saying if the sweep ECU that they'll punch their ticket. IMO, a sweep and 1 or 2 wins in the AAC tourney and I don't see how the committee can leave us out.
 
My concern coming into the ECU series was that Tulane could knock us off to 5th if we slip up. One win in two and that won't happen but I really don't want to see Tulane in the first round. If we can win today (I take things 1 game at a time). The game in Hartford was a lot of fun and I am going back up to Storrs today for the 2nd game.
 
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Just looked at the AAC standings, noting that USF has played 37 home games. We have played 17 (with one to go). That is crazy.
 
I think UConn pretty much clinches an NCAA tourney bid if they beat East Carolina today. The Huskies would have a share of the AAC regular season title and an RPI of around 30, plus some quality wins. At that point the ACC tourney would only be about seeding for the NCAA tourney.
 
current record.. season goal

14- 9 .609% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
8- 4/ .667% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 31 - 22/ .585..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 34.... <51- RPI

(3) tied 1 st .....Top 4 AAC

CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable
 
UConn's RPI is now 37.

Results in other conference tournaments UConn fans should be hoping for, to help our at-large chances:
Big East - St. John's to win
Big West - LBSU to win, Fullerton getting knocked off early might help too
CUSA - S. Miss or La Tech to win, ODU to get knocked off early would help too
Missouri Valley - Missouri St to win
Southland - SE Louisiana to win, McNeese St to get upset early would help
Sun Belt - S. Alabama to win
.... and no big time under dogs to make a run and win any of the major conference tournaments, knocking teams off the bubble.
 
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