Wins needed for 2017 at large bid

[ucjoet]

Would have been nice to start this after a 4 - 0 start, but 3 - 1 is definitely acceptable. I copied and pasted much of the same info I used last year. Seemed to work pretty well. I am including the first 4 games ( UMass - Lowell) in the New England game section. Also going with the standard 2 - 2 in AAC tourney.

Again based on research of teams that made tourney over last few years, I came up with my unscientific path for the baseball team to get an at large bid. I hope some of you enjoy this. It keeps me interested in season .

I am assuming we play 60 games prior to NCAA. I included 4 games of AAC tourney play ( this can vary). Based on 60 games I came up with the 3 criteria we need to meet (or exceed) to get a bid. Obviously this does not guarantee a bid , but from past history it would place us in great position.

The 3 Criteria

(1) minimum 38 wins
(2) RPI less then 51
(3) Top 4 team in AAC regular season


I would like to ask 2 things

(A) Can this thread be pinned

(B) This is a little self serving, but if you guys do enjoy this can you like a post of mine every once in a while. My post to like ratio can use the help. Thanks . Go Huskies



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
0 -0 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 3 -1 / .750 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 132 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[Stainmaster]

Running this thread every year is such a great service - a "like" is the least we can do.

 

[huskymedic]

Slacker

Pinned.

 

[dbmill]

For long time service in producing a feature that I look forward to, sure. Still, I never knew getting a "like" was just for the asking.

 

[ucjoet]

For long time service, sure. Still, I never knew getting a "like" was just for the asking.

I do feel funny for asking for a "like". A" like" should be earned not asked for. But I can use you as an example. You post many great updates and comments and I personally do not think you get the amount of "likes" you deserve. I mean that as a complement.
So I do apologize for being self serving.

 

[dbmill]

I do feel funny for asking for a "like". A" like" should be earned not asked for. But I can use you as an example. You post many great updates and comments and I personally do not think you get the amount of "likes" you deserve. I mean that as a complement.
So I do apologize for being self serving.

And thank you for your complement. As for my comment, I was just trying to be humorous. Believe me, I don't think there is any need to apologize for what you call being self serving.

 

[uconnbaseball]

The Texas series coming up is good for us, as we can honestly win 2 in Austin if we play great, but winning even 1 would give us good publicity and a nice kick up the RPI. Texas has a lot of young, highly touted players...but frankly so do we. Should be a great series.

 

[UConnfan4ever]

Enjoy this thread every year. Thanks. I'm hoping for 2 out 3 and big jump in RPI.

 

[ucjoet]

Never like updating the chart when losing first game of series. So it was a huge win yesterday. Great pitching, just not hitting well in this series. Hopefully continue with a good pitching performance today, and bats come alive. Winning 2 of 3 at Texas would be a very successful weekend.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
1 -1 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 -2 / .667 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 86 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Tough losing 2 of 3 at Texas. But just did not hit this weekend. I think next weekend is crucial. Really thinking we can sweep, if we start to hit . Have 3 very winnable games. Realize it is early so hard to gauge a true RPI as of yet, but we should be favorites in each game.

The 3 games are below

Western Michigan 1-5 126 RPI
Stetson 4-4 223
St. Joes 0-5 282



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
1 -2 / .333 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 -3 / .571 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 59 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Tough losing 2 of 3 at Texas. But just did not hit this weekend. I think next weekend is crucial. Really thinking we can sweep, if we start to hit . Have 3 very winnable games. Realize it is early so hard to gauge a true RPI as of yet, but we should be favorites in each game.

The 3 games are below

Western Michigan 1-5 126 RPI
Stetson 4-4 223
St. Joes 0-5 282



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
1 -2 / .333 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 4 -3 / .571 ..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 59 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

I agree about the RPI, I figure it will start to sort itself out soon enough.

AAC is currently clocking in at 5 in Conference RPI. I'm sure the same sorting out applies on the conference level as well.

 

[ucjoet]

After Friday night loss , I thought it was going to be one of those weekends . But we rebounded to win last 2 games. Off to a west coast trip ( 7 games in 9 days) where if we play well, we can definitely do some damage. No team that we can't beat. In fact hoping for a 5 - 2 trip ( at minimum) .

By going 5 -2 , that would get our record to 11 - 6. That is a winning % of .647, which would put us ahead of the .633 goal. This would also be with Cate missing a start , Toppa not at full strength and Yahn not playing as of yet.

Also even though our RPI took a hit this past weekend, not really worried about that. Just need to keep winning and once we get into AAC play ( many good RPI teams) , that will take care of itself.




current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
3 -3 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 6 -4 / .600..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 142 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

After Friday night loss , I thought it was going to be one of those weekends . But we rebounded to win last 2 games. Off to a west coast trip ( 7 games in 9 days) where if we play well, we can definitely do some damage. No team that we can't beat. In fact hoping for a 5 - 2 trip ( at minimum) .

By going 5 -2 , that would get our record to 11 - 6. That is a winning % of .647, which would put us ahead of the .633 goal. This would also be with Cate missing a start , Toppa not at full strength and Yahn not playing as of yet.

Also even though our RPI took a hit this past weekend, not really worried about that. Just need to keep winning and once we get into AAC play ( many good RPI teams) , that will take care of itself.




current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
3 -3 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 6 -4 / .600..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 142 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

Another thing that will help UConn and the RPI is that now they will be playing more true road games when they travel to far off lands. No more playing UMass Lowell, Western Michigan, and St. Joe's at neutral sites in Florida. Beating home teams (we hope) on their home turf will be a big help to UConn's RPI.

AAC still clocks in at five in the conference RPI, with five teams in the top 82. Surprisingly, Tulane is currently the main RPI drag at 254, but it is still early in the season.

 

[ucjoet]

Nice win tonight. Finally started a series with a win. Looking for more of the same with Montogomery and Feole pitching next 2 games. Freshman coming up with big hits and Yahn back in lineup is big.


RPI still not great, but if we keep winning that will take care of itself. Hopefully Cate ready for his next start. With him back, our weekend starters are very good. Also bullpen starting to come around. Don't want to Jinx this , but really starting to like this teams potential for a very good season.




current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
4 -3 / .571 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 7 -4 / .636..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 104 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Was not able to follow game in detail yesterday because at Hoop game. But would like to thank DBMill, Huskeymedic, Baseballguy, hardcorehusky, uconnbaseball and ATLDYKA ( I may have missed someone else, sorry) for their updates on the Boneyard.

You guys do a great job keeping us all updated. I hope you continue this great service.

At a Macro level below, we are at all our goals except for RPI. That will continue to improve if we keep winning and once we get into AAC play. Also winning these true road games will help.

We are now on a 4 game win streak. Hopefully Cate is ready for next start.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
5 -3 / .625 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 8 -4 / .667..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 82 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[UConnRock]

Is Cate on the trip? If he is ready could he get a start and a few innings later in the trip? That could be valuable as the trip drags on and the staff is pushed for innings.

 

[ucjoet]

Sorry haven't posted in a bit. Never like posting after losses. Really needed yesterday's win. Taught they were going to lose another one in late innings, but they pulled it out.

Hate to say these next 3 games are must wins ( too early in season to state that), but they would be huge. By beating BYU, Yale and CCSU we get to a 12 -7 record. That is a winning percentage of .632 , which basically is our goal for the year. Also that brings us into a 3 game series with Seton Hall, that has an RPI in the low 20's. Win that series and that greatly helps our RPI.

Lets hope we beat BYU, and get a little momentum going. Need to go on a bit of a run, because the AAC is looking like a tough overall conference. Need every win we can get.




current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 1 / .750% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
6 -6 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 9-7 / .563..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 100 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Keep losing some frustrating games. Need to put a streak together to get season back on track. Actually think this team has some potential. Based on the projection that we play 60 games this year ( assuming 4 in AAC tourney), that means we have 42 games left. To get to our goal of 38 wins, we need to go 28 - 14 the rest of the way. That is a .667 winning %. That obviously means we need to win 2 of every 3 games we play. Not impossible, but we have our work cut out for us.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 1 / .800% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
6 -7 / .462 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 10-8 / .556..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 103 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Keep losing some frustrating games. Need to put a streak together to get season back on track. Actually think this team has some potential. Based on the projection that we play 60 games this year ( assuming 4 in AAC tourney), that means we have 42 games left. To get to our goal of 38 wins, we need to go 28 - 14 the rest of the way. That is a .667 winning %. That obviously means we need to win 2 of every 3 games we play. Not impossible, but we have our work cut out for us.

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 1 / .800% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
6 -7 / .462 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 10-8 / .556..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 103 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

One thing to note is that between the Seton Hall series and the AAC conference schedule, all but two weekend series remaining are currently against teams in the RPI top 64, with Cincinnati not too far out of the top 100 at 118. That will give plenty of opportunities to move up in these rankings. UConn is currently 8-7 against teams rank in the top 200 RPI, so playing all these quality teams will be a challenge. UConn seems to have a number of young players who show some solid potential, some of them are going to have to step it up for UConn to meet these goals.

 

[ucjoet]

Great way to start weekend with a much needed win. Bullpen came up big today. Our RPI jumped over 30 places after this win. I have no worries about our RPI being a problem. With schedule we have , if we win our RPI is going to be fine. Next 2 games would be huge to win. A split would not be horrible.

Go Huskies


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 1 / .800% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
7 -7 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 11-8 / .579..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 71 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Won series which is good. Still need to go on a little streak to get us on track for goals below. Have 5 games in 7 days, with 4 being away. BC home and Fairfield away, we need to win. Then have 3 vs a good ECU team. Would love to win that series. Winning 4 of 5 gets us to 16 - 10. Do that and we are at a .615 winning percentage and our RPI will definitely jump with 4 games being away.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 1 / .800% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 12-9 / .571..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 78 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Won series which is good. Still need to go on a little streak to get us on track for goals below. Have 5 games in 7 days, with 4 being away. BC home and Fairfield away, we need to win. Then have 3 vs a good ECU team. Would love to win that series. Winning 4 of 5 gets us to 16 - 10. Do that and we are at a .615 winning percentage and our RPI will definitely jump with 4 games being away.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 1 / .800% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 12-9 / .571..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 78 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

The Warren Nolan RPI tracker is a very fluid rating, where a team can move up or down as the results come in. For instance, in the four hours since @ucjoet posted his latest chart, UConn has moved up to 67 in the RPI.

 

[RUSS56]

Tough draw getting 6 games vs ECU, but that should be embraced, because if they win 4, that will be huge. Always loved playing big games, big moments, lived for them. Go after them hrd in game 1, Let them know, Uconn says hello!

 

[ucjoet]

Was not able to follow any of the Fairfield game, but that was a win we needed to get. ECU away is going to be a very difficult series. It would be huge if we can get 2 of 3. As I stated before, I have no worries about our RPI. It has moved up to 67 after yesterdays win, and with our future schedule that will take care of itself.

Just need to get some wins, and go a a little winning streak


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 13-9 / .591..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 67 .... <51- RPI

(3) Top 4 AAC - Not yet applicable


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Want to thank everyone for their updates during game last night. Was out to dinner for my wife's birthday, then came home and we watched Women's game. I know it is hard to feel bad for a team that won 111 games in a row and 4 straight national championships, but I really did go to bed with an empty feeling. They had a great season and probably played better then anyone would have predicted, but it would have been awesome for this group to win another championship. Not to worry they probably won't lose for next 3 years.

As far as the baseball game, great win. Cate and Winkel really stepped up. Was not pretty on base-paths (need to clean this up), but we got a win vs a top 25 team. As you see below , there is a lot of green. If we can split ( obviously would love 2 more), it would be a big weekend .





current record.. season goal

1- 0 / 1.000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 14-9 / .609..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 50 .... <51- RPI

(3) Tied 1 st........Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Another big away win to clinch series vs a top 25 ECU team . Getting greedy now, and would love a sweep. Susi, Montgomerie and Russell with great efforts today. As stated in another thread, we have the third most road wins in country. Even though it seemed like a tough draw getting 6 games with ECU, maybe it was a blessing in disguise.

Below is updated chart. I did make an error in last chart posted. The overall record should not have been highlighted in green. I have adjusted this

Current record ...... season goal

2 -0 / 1.000%........ 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000............ 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5 - 1 / .833............ 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8 - 8 / .500............ 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games


Post Season Criteria

(1) 15 - 9 / .622........38 - 22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 37....... < 51 - RPI

(3) Tied for 1st - Top 4 AAC

 

[huskymedic]

With the sweep - time to make some noise next 6 games...

 

[ucjoet]

Wow, what a weekend. Swept a top 25 ECU team at their place. This is the momentum we needed. As you will see below , all our post season goals are highlighted in GREEN.

Some misc notes .

(1) have 12 road wins ( third most in country)
(2) have won 8 of last 10
(3) have won 5 in a row
(4) Sole possession of 1st place in AAC
(5) Only undefeated AAC team ( 3-0)
(6) second best RPI in AAC at 34 ( Houston - 8th)

We have 5 of next 6 games at home. With 3 AAC games vs Memphis ( RPI 99), and 3 New England games. They are vs Northeastern ( 118), UHart ( 224) and at Bryant (236). Looking for a minimum of 4 of 6, put starting to get greedy and really want at least a 5 - 1 record.

I always consider that the New England games are almost must wins. In that it does not help that much to win them, but it really hurts when you lose them. Not sure if that makes sense.


current record.. season goal

3- 0 / 1.000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 16-9 / .640..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 34 .... <51- RPI

(3) 1 st.....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[huskymedic]

2017 College Baseball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live - WarrenNolan.com

 

[Fantana]

Wow, what a weekend. Swept a top 25 ECU team at their place. This is the momentum we needed. As you will see below , all our post season goals are highlighted in GREEN.

Some misc notes .

(1) have 12 road wins ( third most in country)
(2) have won 8 of last 10
(3) have won 5 in a row
(4) Sole possession of 1st place in AAC
(5) Only undefeated AAC team ( 3-0)
(6) second best RPI in AAC at 34 ( Houston - 8th)

We have 5 of next 6 games at home. With 3 AAC games vs Memphis ( RPI 99), and 3 New England games. They are vs Northeastern ( 118), UHart ( 224) and at Bryant (236). Looking for a minimum of 4 of 6, put starting to get greedy and really want at least a 5 - 1 record.

I always consider that the New England games are almost must wins. In that it does not help that much to win them, but it really hurts when you lose them. Not sure if that makes sense.


current record.. season goal

3- 0 / 1.000 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
5- 1 / .833% ... 12 - 4 / .750 - New England games
8-8 / .500 .... 10 - 6 / .625 - Other games

Post season Criteria
(1) 16-9 / .640..... 38-22 / .633 - Overall record

(2) 34 .... <51- RPI

(3) 1 st.....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

Love all the green. I know it's early but the red gets hard on the eyes