Wilson over Tuck???

[ndmb]

So if they don't start against the opponents starters but play the end of the game against the opponents bench players there is no statistical way to determine that. So the experts should take these types of information into consideration when choosing their AA teams but it is difficult to do without watching the teams play many games. Nothing against Wilson, but she is not even a starter on her own team. Stats are great but it all comes down to someone's subjective opinion when picking these teams.

In a word, no. But there have been people who've looked into this question statistically at the NBA level, and they actually found surprising results that somewhat debunked the notion that players' efficiency got worse as their minutes increased. Link 1 Link 2

I've been approaching this generally, rather than talking about this specific case. First off, in a direct player comparison, it's not cool to give per 40 minute numbers for one player and not the other, because people tend to underestimate how big a difference that is. Second, I agree that it's pretty significant that Dawn Staley hasn't made Wilson a starter. Anytime you're evaluating a player that it gets limited minutes, I think that it's beneficial to look at why that is. I have a lot of sympathy for a player who doesn't get as much time because she's surrounded by a lot of talent at her position or who spends more time sitting during blowouts. Not so much by players who get into foul trouble or have a skillset that's only useful in some situations, or aren't mature enough to handle playing the full game a lot. With Wilson, I think that there are some sets of both, but I think any reasonable person with an eye test should agree that she's not been close to top 15 this season.

 

[ndmb]

Here's another stat - usage percentage. Wilson's is 31.8% Noted high-usage stars Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Mitchell check in at 31.1% and 32.2%, respectively. Basically, Wilson doesn't play that much and shoots a ton when she is in. Of course she has a high number of points per 40 minutes!

I agree with most of your post, but maintaining a high shooting percentage (5 points higher than her team) while having a high usage percentage is an argument in her favor, not the other way around.

 

[Orangutan]

I agree with most of your post, but maintaining a high shooting percentage (5 points higher than her team) while having a high usage percentage is an argument in her favor, not the other way around.

53% is not really a high percentage for a forward who doesn't shoot 3s. Coates, Ibiam, and Welch all have better shooting percentages.

 

[ndmb]

53% is not really a high percentage for a forward who doesn't shoot 3s. Coates, Ibiam, and Welch all have better shooting percentages.

Coates and Ibiam all are far more dependent on being set up than Wilson, and not one of the three you mentioned have anywhere near the same usage percentage. Stokes shoots 55%, but you're really missing the point if you think she's a more efficient scorer than Stewie.

 

[Huskies Rule]

Almost every single shot A'ja Wilson, Alaina Coates and Brianna Turner took this year came from inside the paint, little putbacks of 8 feet and less. None of them has even a decent medium-range jumper. They have zero range and can do nothing but pass unless they're practically under the basket. Their shooting percentages should be off the hook.
[not to mention that none has even an average off hand]

 

[Orangutan]

Coates and Ibiam all are far more dependent on being set up than Wilson, and not one of the three you mentioned have anywhere near the same usage percentage. Stokes shoots 55%, but you're really missing the point if you think she's a more efficient scorer than Stewie.

I know what you mean and 53% is fine for that usage percentage...pretty good really but it's not necessarily something that strikes me as A-A worthy. At best, it raises the question of why doesn't she play more.

 

[ndmb]

I know what you mean and 53% is fine for that usage percentage...pretty good really but it's not necessarily something that strikes me as A-A worthy. At best, it raises the question of why doesn't she play more.

My memory could be failing me, but weren't you the one that said Loyd had a good shooting percentage for a guard at 48% because she was the focal point of the defense and had to take so many shots?

 

[Huskies Rule]

With a team so unbelievably loaded that an "All American" is relegated to the bench for more than half the game (19.7 mpg), it seems a done deal that Dawn Staley cannot possibly leave Tampa with anything but the National Championship trophy.

 

[herby123]

Huskies Rule : GREAT POINT! I would like to add one more point: Coates has been out there making foul shots, short 2 point shots and big defensive plays to get SC into final four while Wilson has been playing like a freshman who found herself on the bench for many critical minutes. Apparently Dawn has reservations about her during crunch time. BTW Isn't Coates better than Wilson at this point?
Go Huskies

 

[Orangutan]

My memory could be failing me, but weren't you the one that said Loyd had a good shooting percentage for a guard at 48% because she was the focal point of the defense and had to take so many shots?

Yes. And I still think 47% is good for a high-usage guard. I don't know what you're driving at, especially because I already said that I think Wilson's percentage good, just not spectacular. Compare her to Nina Davis (58%), Tuck (60%), etc. etc.

Maybe I haven't seen SCar enough and Wilson takes more long shots that I credit her for. She's only taken 3 shots from 3, so that's not pushing it down.

 

[ndmb]

Yes. And I still think 47% is good for a high-usage guard. I don't know what you're driving at, especially because I already said that I think Wilson's percentage good, just not spectacular. Compare her to Nina Davis (58%), Tuck (60%), etc. etc.

Maybe I haven't seen SCar enough and Wilson takes more long shots that I credit her for. She's only taken 3 shots from 3, so that's not pushing it down.

OK, fair enough.

 

[mrmojack]

What exactly did Wilson do this season to qualify as AA?

I really don't know. From what I have seen, she only wants to go to her left and teams
are still letting her do it consistently. I really don't know what these coaches are looking
at when they watch film. Has anyone else noticed this?

Morgan Tuck has been unbelievable in the post.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

I am wondering if those supporting Wilson over Tuck have seen the two actually play in a game(s) and not just examine numbers. Seems to me reasonable question.

 

[bbsamjj]

There are more than a few players on the HM list that I think deserved it more than Wilson THIS YEAR. No doubt her time will come, but these awards should be based on performance, not potential.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

There are more than a few players on the HM list that I think deserved it more than Wilson THIS YEAR. No doubt her time will come, but these awards should be based on performance, not potential.

"awards should be based on performance, not potential."

Exactly. Trying to figure out how anyone could disagree with that.

 

[CocoHusky]

Do you think that she (or any players on teams that win the national title) care about being named to all american teams like this? Do you envision players sulking over not getting named to one of these lists?

Not any specific award and not now. But if Morgan comes back .for a reunion when this team is being honored or on her senior night her name is not on WOH I think she would care. I would care.

 

[iri10]

My thoughts on A'ja are basically the same as they've been all season. She's good; props to her. I think the best freshman post is Turner, though. (edit for clarification): Turner is a more critical piece for her team than A'ja is, yet still maintains good offensive efficiency.

A'ja's presence on these lists says as much about momentum among the people choosing the lists as anything. A'ja made AA because people have thought she could have achieved that since before she put on an SC uniform, and they don't feel like changing their mind.

Maybe she'll have an awakening in the Final Four, as Stewart did. Stewart was pretty indifferent in her freshman year as well before then. Of course, Stewart didn't make the AP list as a frosh...

 

[HoopsFan21]

I think what people want is to see these lists chosen by some statistical or performance-based black and white algorithm that removes human error and bias. Too bad that's never going to happen. We as humans apparently like voting for things: presidents, all-Americans, American Idol, and so on.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

I think what people want is to see these lists chosen by some statistical or performance-based black and white algorithm that removes human error and bias. Too bad that's never going to happen. We as humans apparently like voting for things: presidents, all-Americans, American Idol, and so on.

No need to ever watch games?

 

[asuwish]

A'ja is a very good player. I've seen her shoot 3's. I know she played a lot, but I did wonder if anyone has every been named AA who didn't start for their team?

 

[MilfordHusky]

Wilson is a good player and likely will become a very good player. I thought she was the 3rd best frosh, after Mitchell and Turner. I'd put her in the top 30 or so, but not top 15.

Regarding freshmen, the truly impressive one was the one who led her team in scoring, made several threes against multiple opponents, helped steal a game at DePaul, almost stole a game against Rutgers, and finished 2nd behind Candace Parker for the AP POY. She's since won 2 NCAA titles, 2 WNBA titles, 1 Spanish League and 1 Euroleague title, 3 Chinese league titles, 2 FIBA gold medals, and 1 Olympic gold medal. SHE was a freshman!

 

[triaddukefan]

Wilson is a good player and likely will become a very good player. I thought she was the 3rd best frosh, after Mitchell and Turner. I'd put her in the top 30 or so, but not top 15.
!

Azura Stevens was better than Turner and Wilson

 

[Huskies Rule]

A'ja is a very good player. I've seen her shoot 3's. I know she played a lot, but I did wonder if anyone has every been named AA who didn't start for their team?

You've seen Wilson shoot 3's? Really? And yesterday I saw chupacabra. This entire year Wilson attempted three 3-pointers. THREE. And she made a grand total of one. ONE. That's one more than none. Wilson knows her skill limitations, and any shot more than 8 feet from the basket is her Kryptonite. [I suspect those 3 attempts were likely shot-clock violation heaves.]

*I can understand you supporting your player, but please don't mention shooting three's in the same sentence as A'ja Wilson. It's silly.

 

[Striper69]

I know what you mean and 53% is fine for that usage percentage...pretty good really but it's not necessarily something that strikes me as A-A worthy. At best, it raises the question of why doesn't she play more.

I can't believe Aja was chosen over Blake Dietrick.

I like Aja but c'mon!

 

[Bgillon]

I would love to see a statistical comparison between Wilson and Tuck. Tuck was a vital part of the #1 ranked team and Wilson was a sub. I believe she was chosen over other more worthy players based on her hype and for political purposes.